Her lidt fra CS follow up analyse.
Pharma to biotech deals are topical...
...and likely to stay that way.
Prior to delving into the nitty grrity science, we highlight a notable development in M&A within our sector. Last week’s confirmation that the US Pharma company Wyeth is in acquisition talks with the Dutch biotech company Crucell has rekindled general investor
interest in pharma to biotech (P2B) M&A. Our key take home views on P2B deals are:
1. More deals are expected in 2009. P2B deals are clearly a central and natural
part of the healthcare industry, but we do expect a major increase in activity in
2009 given the current structural issues within the pharma/biotech industry - i.e.
late stage R&D product poor, upcoming patent expiries and cash rich pharma
companies combined with biotech companies that are finding financing
increasingly difficult.
2. Speculation alone does not warrant buying stocks. Given the speculative and
opaque nature of P2B deals we caution from holding an investment stance on any
biotech company on speculation alone. We could provide speculative analysis
that justifies almost any biotech company being bought out. However, clearly
investors need to take M&A speculation (however plausible) into account within
an investment stance.
3. Looking for “tactical indicators.” Notwithstanding the speculative nature of P2B
deals there are a number of "tactical indicators" which increase their likelihood:
We look for companies with (a) late stage products, (b) management willing to
take an exit, (c) discrete regulatory events upcoming, (d) lack of own sales force
The Wyeth-Crucell talks
have rekindled investor
interest in P2B deals
Pharma to biotech deals are topical...
...and likely to stay that way.
Prior to delving into the nitty grrity science, we highlight a notable development in M&A within our sector. Last week’s confirmation that the US Pharma company Wyeth is in acquisition talks with the Dutch biotech company Crucell has rekindled general investor
interest in pharma to biotech (P2B) M&A. Our key take home views on P2B deals are:
1. More deals are expected in 2009. P2B deals are clearly a central and natural
part of the healthcare industry, but we do expect a major increase in activity in
2009 given the current structural issues within the pharma/biotech industry - i.e.
late stage R&D product poor, upcoming patent expiries and cash rich pharma
companies combined with biotech companies that are finding financing
increasingly difficult.
2. Speculation alone does not warrant buying stocks. Given the speculative and
opaque nature of P2B deals we caution from holding an investment stance on any
biotech company on speculation alone. We could provide speculative analysis
that justifies almost any biotech company being bought out. However, clearly
investors need to take M&A speculation (however plausible) into account within
an investment stance.
3. Looking for “tactical indicators.” Notwithstanding the speculative nature of P2B
deals there are a number of "tactical indicators" which increase their likelihood:
We look for companies with (a) late stage products, (b) management willing to
take an exit, (c) discrete regulatory events upcoming, (d) lack of own sales force
The Wyeth-Crucell talks
have rekindled investor
interest in P2B deals
Arzerra’s phase III clinical data in patients with highly refractory CLL (ca.50% of which had
prior Rituxan treatment), announced July 2008, were significantly better than expected.
One leading expert in the field, Professor Susan O’Brien went as far as to say (at the ASH
educational symposium, December 2008) the results were ‘stunning.’
prior Rituxan treatment), announced July 2008, were significantly better than expected.
One leading expert in the field, Professor Susan O’Brien went as far as to say (at the ASH
educational symposium, December 2008) the results were ‘stunning.’
I kan godt glæde jer. CS har tænkt sig at publicere flere notes ala dem der drev kursen op igår.
14/1 2009 14:09 Solsen 0
1020 Ganske godt arbejde det CSB laver og det virker på kursdannelse.
Meget positiv overrasket over at vi holder de nye kursniveauer omend vi da godt kan falde - men tydeligt, at der er institutionelle investorer der opkøber.
CDV sælger stadig og nærmer sig vel millionen af solgte aktier - jeg tror det er MEDX der planlagt sælger helt ud af Genmab i denne måned. Når BLA kommer vil de vælte på igen er mit gæt - 2,5 mio aktier har MEDX.
Meget positiv overrasket over at vi holder de nye kursniveauer omend vi da godt kan falde - men tydeligt, at der er institutionelle investorer der opkøber.
CDV sælger stadig og nærmer sig vel millionen af solgte aktier - jeg tror det er MEDX der planlagt sælger helt ud af Genmab i denne måned. Når BLA kommer vil de vælte på igen er mit gæt - 2,5 mio aktier har MEDX.
Ja det er ret spændende med de follow up notes som de har annonceret, de virker meget gennemarbejdet på det lægefaglige.
Læg mærke til stadigvæk at de ikke har nogen estimater på 1st line, men er begyndt og åbne op for second line.
Det bliver spændende. Analytikerne virker alle som om de kan tro at Genmab er en opkøbscase. Men de siger vel samtidigt at det først bliver relevant når Azerra rent faktisk er godkendt, hvilket først sker om 6 måneders tid.
BLA bliver endnu en trigger i denne måned, så milestones. Men jeg glæder mig ret meget til præsentation i aften også. Jeg laver et referat hvis jeg altså kan høre skidtet.
Læg mærke til stadigvæk at de ikke har nogen estimater på 1st line, men er begyndt og åbne op for second line.
Det bliver spændende. Analytikerne virker alle som om de kan tro at Genmab er en opkøbscase. Men de siger vel samtidigt at det først bliver relevant når Azerra rent faktisk er godkendt, hvilket først sker om 6 måneders tid.
BLA bliver endnu en trigger i denne måned, så milestones. Men jeg glæder mig ret meget til præsentation i aften også. Jeg laver et referat hvis jeg altså kan høre skidtet.
773 238,50 239,00 497
200 238,25 239,50 66
1.222 238,00 240,00 107
652 237,50 240,25 50
1.150 237,00 240,50 56
200 238,25 239,50 66
1.222 238,00 240,00 107
652 237,50 240,25 50
1.150 237,00 240,50 56
