Disclaimer: Jeg har ad flere omgange vaeret short Tesla, men jeg er det desvaerre ikke paa nuvaerende tidspunkt og har ej heller ingen planer om at oprette en short-position inden for de naeste 72 timer.
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Jeg har egentlig bare ventet paa deres 10Q og ville egentlig bare skrive om Teslas regnskab fra 3. kvartal i weekenden, men der er i denne uge kommet to ventede katastrofe-nyheder:
2022-10-26
Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims
https://www.reuters.com/legal/exclusive-tesla-faces-us-criminal-probe-over-self-driving-claims-sources-2022-10-26/
2022-10-24
Tesla cuts China prices by up to 9% as analysts warn of 'price war'
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-starting-prices-model-3-model-y-china-2022-10-24/
Den brede offentlighed har vidst siden december 2021, at Teslas "Paint It Black" video fra 2016 med en "selvkoerende" Tesla var lige saa falsk som den fra Nikola med deres lastbil, der rullede ned af en bakke:
2021-12-06
Inside Tesla as Elon Musk Pushed an Unflinching Vision for Self-Driving Cars
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/technology/tesla-autopilot-elon-musk.html
Trevor Milton blev doemt for nylig og risikerer ved strafudmaaling helt op til 20 aar i faengsel:
2022-10-14
Founder of Electric Truck Maker Is Convicted of Fraud
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/business/trevor-milton-nikola-fraud.html
Icarus havde i det mindste ikke falske vinger. Jeg kan godt forstaa Karpathy smuttede:
2022-07-13
Tesla AI leader Andrej Karpathy announces he's leaving the company
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/tesla-ai-leader-andrej-karpathy-announces-hes-leaving-the-company.html
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Her et hurtigt kig paa regnskab for 3. kvartal. Isoleret set var det et fint kvartal YoY, og bedre end bil-industrien generelt. Lad os dykke en lille smule ned i tallene. Figurer er vedhaeftet, der viser nedenstaaende.
Jeg synes det mest interessante er, at gross margin holder sig paa et meget hoejt niveau trods hoej inflation og to spritnye fabrikker, der ikke koerer paa fuld kapacitet. Jeg havde forventet et stoerre fald. I den sammenhaeng er det selvfoelgelig vaerd at bemaerke, at det forholdsvise salg af model S/X ift 3/Y er stoerre end for et aar siden; foerstnaevnte har hoejere margen. Tesla har en vaesentlig hoejere brutto-margen end konkurrenterne.
Omsaetningen i USA, Kina og Europa ramte rekord-niveau i Q3, men i de to sidstnaevnte geografier laa omsaetningen ikke vaesentligt over Q1. Meget af vaeksten i Europa er drevet af Tyskland, men falder faktisk i bl.a. Frankrig, Italien, Nederlandene, Sverige, Danmark, Norge og Finland.
Jeg er meget bearish paa Tesla, saa lyt til Tasha Keeney fra ARK Invest nedenfor og faa et modsat synspunkt.
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Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/10/20/tesla-tsla-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript/
Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst
Any update on full self-driving? I think you had said a couple of quarters ago, would be available by the end of the year. Is that still possible? Is it -- would it still be like a Level 4 or Level 5 that you're talking about? And are there any sort of regulatory hurdles you'd have to think about?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We -- as I said earlier, we're expecting to release the full self-driving software to anyone who orders the package by the end of this year. So, a separate matter as to will it have regulatory approval. It won't have regulatory approval at that time. But the car we'll be able to take you from your home to your work, your friend's house, to the grocery store without you touching wheel.
So, it's looking very good.
Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst
And it would mean like Level 4, Level 5 kind of traditional definition you're talking about?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Well, there's this debate is like what's the -- what are the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we're not saying that that's quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It's just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers. So, like when I came to Giga Texas from Brent's house, I never touched any of the controls already here.
And then there is a longer process of like called the march of 9s of like how many 9s reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it. And that's some subjectivity as to how many nines you need. But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, that's whatever in my mind next year.
I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safer much so than the average human.
2022-10-19
Tesla Q3 2022 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
Elon Musk begynder at snakke ved 8:11
Q&A begynder 21:09
2022-10-01
Tesla AI Day 2022
2022-10-20
Fears over Tesla demand are unfounded, says ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney
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Jeg har egentlig bare ventet paa deres 10Q og ville egentlig bare skrive om Teslas regnskab fra 3. kvartal i weekenden, men der er i denne uge kommet to ventede katastrofe-nyheder:
2022-10-26
Tesla faces U.S. criminal probe over self-driving claims
https://www.reuters.com/legal/exclusive-tesla-faces-us-criminal-probe-over-self-driving-claims-sources-2022-10-26/
2022-10-24
Tesla cuts China prices by up to 9% as analysts warn of 'price war'
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-cuts-starting-prices-model-3-model-y-china-2022-10-24/
Den brede offentlighed har vidst siden december 2021, at Teslas "Paint It Black" video fra 2016 med en "selvkoerende" Tesla var lige saa falsk som den fra Nikola med deres lastbil, der rullede ned af en bakke:
2021-12-06
Inside Tesla as Elon Musk Pushed an Unflinching Vision for Self-Driving Cars
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/06/technology/tesla-autopilot-elon-musk.html
Trevor Milton blev doemt for nylig og risikerer ved strafudmaaling helt op til 20 aar i faengsel:
2022-10-14
Founder of Electric Truck Maker Is Convicted of Fraud
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/14/business/trevor-milton-nikola-fraud.html
Icarus havde i det mindste ikke falske vinger. Jeg kan godt forstaa Karpathy smuttede:
2022-07-13
Tesla AI leader Andrej Karpathy announces he's leaving the company
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/tesla-ai-leader-andrej-karpathy-announces-hes-leaving-the-company.html
________________________________________________________________________________
Her et hurtigt kig paa regnskab for 3. kvartal. Isoleret set var det et fint kvartal YoY, og bedre end bil-industrien generelt. Lad os dykke en lille smule ned i tallene. Figurer er vedhaeftet, der viser nedenstaaende.
Jeg synes det mest interessante er, at gross margin holder sig paa et meget hoejt niveau trods hoej inflation og to spritnye fabrikker, der ikke koerer paa fuld kapacitet. Jeg havde forventet et stoerre fald. I den sammenhaeng er det selvfoelgelig vaerd at bemaerke, at det forholdsvise salg af model S/X ift 3/Y er stoerre end for et aar siden; foerstnaevnte har hoejere margen. Tesla har en vaesentlig hoejere brutto-margen end konkurrenterne.
Omsaetningen i USA, Kina og Europa ramte rekord-niveau i Q3, men i de to sidstnaevnte geografier laa omsaetningen ikke vaesentligt over Q1. Meget af vaeksten i Europa er drevet af Tyskland, men falder faktisk i bl.a. Frankrig, Italien, Nederlandene, Sverige, Danmark, Norge og Finland.
Jeg er meget bearish paa Tesla, saa lyt til Tasha Keeney fra ARK Invest nedenfor og faa et modsat synspunkt.
________________________________________________________________________________
Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/10/20/tesla-tsla-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript/
Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst
Any update on full self-driving? I think you had said a couple of quarters ago, would be available by the end of the year. Is that still possible? Is it -- would it still be like a Level 4 or Level 5 that you're talking about? And are there any sort of regulatory hurdles you'd have to think about?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
We -- as I said earlier, we're expecting to release the full self-driving software to anyone who orders the package by the end of this year. So, a separate matter as to will it have regulatory approval. It won't have regulatory approval at that time. But the car we'll be able to take you from your home to your work, your friend's house, to the grocery store without you touching wheel.
So, it's looking very good.
Colin Langan -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst
And it would mean like Level 4, Level 5 kind of traditional definition you're talking about?
Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Well, there's this debate is like what's the -- what are the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we're not saying that that's quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It's just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers. So, like when I came to Giga Texas from Brent's house, I never touched any of the controls already here.
And then there is a longer process of like called the march of 9s of like how many 9s reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it. And that's some subjectivity as to how many nines you need. But I think we'll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you're going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, that's whatever in my mind next year.
I think we'll also have an update next year to be able to show to regulators that the car is safer much so than the average human.
2022-10-19
Tesla Q3 2022 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
Elon Musk begynder at snakke ved 8:11
Q&A begynder 21:09
2022-10-01
Tesla AI Day 2022
2022-10-20
Fears over Tesla demand are unfounded, says ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney
