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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER

Har vi rettet kikkerten rigtig ind? (Vestas/energiselskaber)


56496 Tonny9 3/5 2012 00:47
Oversigt

Hvorfor har næsten alle rettet deres fokus mod Vestas?
Hvorfor ikke se lidt på hvem der profiterer af den priskrig der p.t. foregår mellem producenterne af både vind og solenergi.

Mon ikke det er en priskrig der er kommet for og blive?
Jeg kan i hvert fald ikke se hvad der skal afslutte den.

Tværtigmod så ser jeg en risiko for, at kineserne er ved og gøre det "grimme" ved vindmøllemarked som de gjorde ved solcellerne for nogle får år siden.
Tillige er køberne i dag ikke længere et møllelaug der lige skal bruge 3 møller. Det er store energiselskaber som godt ved hvordan man får de bedste priser.

Så hvorfor ikke se lidt på aktier i energiselskaberne?
De fik generelt nogle ordentlige hug efter katastrofen med A-kraftværket i Japan og det dermed ændrede syn på A-kraft.
Men den dårligdom må være fuldt indregnet nu, men de fremtidige forventninger til denne branche er p.t. ikke særlig høj.

Jeg vil i hvert fald selv holde et øje med EON, RWE, Fortum og EDF.
Især EDF har i øvrigt været storkunde hos Vestas. Det fortsætter de sikker også med at være, men til andre priser.

Jeg siger ikke det er nu man skal slå til. Det tror jeg sådan set ikke det er, for jeg syntes marked generelt er i lidt høj kurs p.t. - alt taget i betragtning.

Men jeg syntes at det er ved og være tid, til og holde lidt øje med denne type selskaber.
Ikke nødvendigvis dem jeg nævner, for der er sikker andre som kan være lige så interessante/gode.
Det er bare dem som jeg holder øje med, fordi de allerede er i portefølgen.

Men jeg tager da gerne en eller to mere ind i portefølgen, hvis der er nogen der kan "overtale" mig...:)..



3/5 2012 06:56 cykling 056497



Det kan efterhånden ikke være forbi gået nogens opmærksomhed af producenter af Vindmøller, solceller og alle, der til relaterede brancher er i knæ.Med de forventninger der er fra politisk side om at det er disse brancher som skal være drivkraften væk fra de fosille brændstoffer.Både af hensyn til knaphed og klima.Så må og skal der vel også ske noget på den front.En relativ nem måde og gør det på er og tvinge energi selskaberne til og og aftage energi fra vind og sol til en fastlagt pris i en 20 årig periode.Det er godt for vind og sol , men er det godt for energi selskaberne.



3/5 2012 07:18 Conner 056498



Nu har jeg lige brugt to min på EON. K/I ligger på 0,96. Gæld ser fornuftig ift kontanter og indtægter. EPS 1,63 og en aktuel kurs på 15,91, P/E ratio bliver således 9,73.

Det ser fornuftigt ud, men ikke umiddelbart en overset valueaktie.



6/5 2012 00:44 Tonny9 056617



Jeg tror ikke på, at man vil tvinge energiselskaberne til og aftage billig strøm fra sol og vind til en kunstig lav pris.
Men selvfølgelig er der en risiko for, at energiselskaber/forsyningsselskaber bliver påvirket negativt af ændrede lovgivning.
Men den politiske beslutninger om og udfase A-kraften i Tyskland er da et udemærket eksempel på, at de er udsat for politikernes luner.

Jeg tror der er langt større sandsynlighed for, at selskaberne selv vil opføre flere "værker" med sol og vind, evt. med tilskud til produktionen.

E.ON er måske ikke den store valueaktie p.t. målt på de sidst kendte nøgletal, men hvordan ser disse nøgletal ud fremover?

Der er det måske værd og huske på, at E.ON i seneste regnskab har haft store engangsudgifter på den uplanlagte nedlukning af A-kraftværker.
Det vil jo ikke fortsætte med og påvirke de fremtidige regnskaber, i hvert fald ikke i samme omfang.

Her er i øvrigt hvad E.ON selv oplyser -
Citat:

""2011 earnings down, attractive dividend yield

In 2011, E.ON recorded its first-ever decline in earnings. Although E.ON's sales rose by 22 percent to about €113 billion, its EBITDA of about €9.3 billion was 30 percent below the prior-year figure. The principal reasons for the decline were an €2.5 billion adverse effect relating the immediate shutdown of nuclear power stations in Germany and the nuclear-fuel tax, a roughly €1 billion earnings reduction from the marketing of E.ON's generation portfolio in Europe, and a roughly €0.7 earnings reduction in the gas wholesale business due to continued Margin pressure.

The earnings performance of E.ON's growth businesses continued to be positive. The Renewables unit grew its EBITDA by 21 percent to around €1.5 billion, mainly because of an increase in installed wind and solar capacity. Earnings in Russia improved by about 35 percent to about €0.6 billion, owing primarily to an increase in generating capacity and wider power margins. Upstream gas earnings rose to roughly €0.8 billion due to positive price and volume effects. In addition, E.ON's ongoing efficiency-enhancement programs delivered lasting earnings effects totaling €0.4 billion in 2011.""

Citat slut.

Man skal jo heller ikke glemme, at det er når alle andre ikke tror på en branche, at der skabes muligheder for en god langsigtet handel.



6/5 2012 01:00 Tonny9 056618



Og hvis nogen skulle have lyst til og læse det seneste nyhedsbrev fra E.ON, så er det her:

Citat:
E.ON making progress with restructuring, confirms forecast
Trough reached in 2011, positive forecast confirmed
Dividend proposal of €1 per share ensures attractive dividend yield

Transformation into European Company (SE) recommended
Implementation of strategy and efficiency enhancement making good progress
"Despite a difficult business environment, we have made very good progress in
implementing our strategy and reorganizing our company. We moved resolutely forward on our consolidation course; the worst adverse effects are behind us. E.ON 2.0, our efficiency-enhancement program, is making good. The earnings growth at our renewables business and our power generation business in Russia demonstrate that we entered the right growth businesses. We're also moving swiftly forward in establishing operations outside Europe, as demonstrated by our joint venture in Brazil. In addition, our agreement with Statoil helps relieve the situation in our wholesale gas business, which remains difficult. There are therefore a number of positive signals that make me confident that we can post an earnings increase in 2012, an increase that will continue in subsequent years." This was E.ON CEO Johannes Teyssen's analysis of the company's current situation. He made the remarks today at E.ON's 2012 Annual Shareholders Meeting in Essen, Germany. Teyssen thus affirmed E.ON's current strategy and its full-year 2012 forecast.


2011 earnings down, attractive dividend yield

In 2011, E.ON recorded its first-ever decline in earnings. Although E.ON's sales rose by 22 percent to about €113 billion, its EBITDA of about €9.3 billion was 30 percent below the prior-year figure. The principal reasons for the decline were an €2.5 billion adverse effect relating the immediate shutdown of nuclear power stations in Germany and the nuclear-fuel tax, a roughly €1 billion earnings reduction from the marketing of E.ON's generation portfolio in Europe, and a roughly €0.7 earnings reduction in the gas wholesale business due to continued Margin pressure.

The earnings performance of E.ON's growth businesses continued to be positive. The Renewables unit grew its EBITDA by 21 percent to around €1.5 billion, mainly because of an increase in installed wind and solar capacity. Earnings in Russia improved by about 35 percent to about €0.6 billion, owing primarily to an increase in generating capacity and wider power margins. Upstream gas earnings rose to roughly €0.8 billion due to positive price and volume effects. In addition, E.ON's ongoing efficiency-enhancement programs delivered lasting earnings effects totaling €0.4 billion in 2011.

On the basis of these results, the Board of Management and Supervisory Board have recommended to the Annual Shareholders Meeting, being held today in Essen, the payment of a dividend of €1 per share. With this dividend, E.ON stock would continue to have one of the highest dividend yields among DAX companies.

Restructuring moving forward

E.ON moved resolutely forward in 2011 on the course to transform itself from a primarily European energy utility into an increasingly global, specialized provider of energy solutions.

As part of its refocusing effort in Europe, E.ON will accelerate the expansion of its renewables capacity. It has earmarked more than €2 billion for the construction of three large offshore wind farms in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. One of these is Amrumbank West, a deepwater wind farm in Germany that will enter service in 2015 and produce enough electricity to power about 300,000 households. Going forward, E.ON intends to commission a new offshore wind farm in Europe every 18 months.

As planned, E.ON is also increasing its activities in growth markets outside Europe. Alongside its successful businesses in North America (wind farms) and Russia (large-scale conventional power stations), E.ON will now enter Brazil as its next growth market. Through a joint venture with Brazil's MPX, E.ON plans to build conventional power stations and renewables facilities with a total capacity of roughly 11 gigawatts. E.ON is also conducting, promising talks with partners in Turkey and India about opportunities for cooperation.

In addition, E.ON has laid the groundwork for lasting efficiency enhancements. In mid-January, it reached an agreement with trade unions ver.di and IGBCE on a collective-bargaining contract for the implementation of E.ON 2.0 in Germany. The contract establishes mechanisms and a framework for the staff reductions that are necessary at E.ON. The agreement pays the way for E.ON to implement E.ON 2.0 as planned and to achieve its goal of reducing controllable costs to €9.5 billion annually by 2015. This will give E.ON flexibility for its investments in the future and thus also for long-term employment opportunities.


Transformation into SE proposed
The planned transformation of E.ON AG into a European Company (SE) is a reflection of the increasing internationalization of E.ON's workforce, customers, and shareholders. The Board of Management and Supervisory Board have therefore proposed that shareholders vote on the transformation, new Articles of Association, and the six shareholder representatives for the SE Supervisory Board at today's Annual Shareholders Meeting. E.ON has reached a mutually acceptable agreement with E.ON companies and work councils in Germany on key issues. Over the next six months, the details will be negotiated with employee representatives from all European countries. E.ON expects the transformation to take effect, and for E.ON SE to be fully functional, at the end of this year. At that time, the six employee representatives will be added to the SE Supervisory Board. Until then, the current Supervisory Board will continue to carry out its duties.


Forecast confirmed
For the first quarter of 2012, the E.ON Group expects its EBITDA to be around €3.8 billion and underlying net income to be around €1.7 billion.

From today's perspective, E.ON expects full-year 2012 EBITDA to be between €9.6 and €10.2 billion and full-year underlying net income to be between€2.3 and €2.7 billion. E.ON continues to plan to pay a dividend of €1.10 per share for the 2012 financial year.

For 2013, E.ON expects EBITDA of €11.6 to €12.3 billion and underlying net income of €3.2 to €3.7 billion. It continues to plan to pay a dividend of at least €1.10 per share for the 2013 financial year.



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