Carnegie - Hansa Biopharma (Buy): Lack of catalysts but fundamentally cheap
Summary:
We upgrade our rating to BUY (Hold) as we feel the stock is fundamentally undervalued following the share price decline during the past 12 months. While we do not foresee any major catalysts for the stock during H1(22), we believe that the current share price offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors. We find Hansa Biopharma's technology platform to be uniquely differentiated and de-risked following the EU approval of Idefirix in kidney transplantation in August 2020, with plenty of opportunities for expanded use and new applications long term. The next key catalyst is Ph II data in AMR due H2(22e).
We lower our SOTP based target price to SEK120 (140) mainly on the back of reduced near-term sales estimates for Idefirix and a lower value assigned to the technology platform following a broad de-rating of biotech peers. Based on our SOTP valuation model, the NPV of Idefirix in kidney transplantation in the EU and US plus cash amounts to SEK81 per share, so we argue that at the current share price, opportunities to expand use of Idefirix into autoimmune diseases, other transplant indications and gene-therapy present pure upside.
On 8 January, Hansa provided a business update including key financials for Q4(21). Idefirix sales in the quarter amounted to SEK 9m, which was a small uptick from previous quarters but still below our estimate. According to management, the process of market access in Europe is on track and, presently, pricing and subsidies have been achieved in Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland and Greece. Importantly, market access procedures are ongoing in 13 additional countries and, with the planned HTA submission in Spain in Q1(22e), we expect an acceleration of the uptake from 2023e. We assume that 42 patients will be treated commercially with Idefirix in the EU during 2022, corresponding to one or two patents each at the roughly 25 centres that should have access and proper training by year-end. Our Idefirix peak sales estimates of kidney transplantation remain unchanged at USD81m and USD133m, in the EU and US, respectively.
Hansa Biopharma har en betalt digital IR-aftale med ProInvestor.com
Summary:
We upgrade our rating to BUY (Hold) as we feel the stock is fundamentally undervalued following the share price decline during the past 12 months. While we do not foresee any major catalysts for the stock during H1(22), we believe that the current share price offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors. We find Hansa Biopharma's technology platform to be uniquely differentiated and de-risked following the EU approval of Idefirix in kidney transplantation in August 2020, with plenty of opportunities for expanded use and new applications long term. The next key catalyst is Ph II data in AMR due H2(22e).
We lower our SOTP based target price to SEK120 (140) mainly on the back of reduced near-term sales estimates for Idefirix and a lower value assigned to the technology platform following a broad de-rating of biotech peers. Based on our SOTP valuation model, the NPV of Idefirix in kidney transplantation in the EU and US plus cash amounts to SEK81 per share, so we argue that at the current share price, opportunities to expand use of Idefirix into autoimmune diseases, other transplant indications and gene-therapy present pure upside.
On 8 January, Hansa provided a business update including key financials for Q4(21). Idefirix sales in the quarter amounted to SEK 9m, which was a small uptick from previous quarters but still below our estimate. According to management, the process of market access in Europe is on track and, presently, pricing and subsidies have been achieved in Sweden, The Netherlands, Finland and Greece. Importantly, market access procedures are ongoing in 13 additional countries and, with the planned HTA submission in Spain in Q1(22e), we expect an acceleration of the uptake from 2023e. We assume that 42 patients will be treated commercially with Idefirix in the EU during 2022, corresponding to one or two patents each at the roughly 25 centres that should have access and proper training by year-end. Our Idefirix peak sales estimates of kidney transplantation remain unchanged at USD81m and USD133m, in the EU and US, respectively.
Hansa Biopharma har en betalt digital IR-aftale med ProInvestor.com
Hvorfor viser Hansa's topledelse ikke en smule optimisme og tro på selskabets fremtid ved at købe lidt insider aktier på det nuværende (lave) kursniveau?
Aktien er faldet ca. 57% det seneste år - og har uden tvivl givet mange aktionærer "økonomiske øretæver".
Aktien er faldet ca. 57% det seneste år - og har uden tvivl givet mange aktionærer "økonomiske øretæver".
