Kommentar fra Per Hansen, Investeringsøkonom, Nordnet.
Elon Musk trækker i land med hensyn til sit købstilbud på Twitter. Anderledes kan man ikke tolke endnu en udtalelse 2. pinsedag, som fik Twitter aktien til af falde. Det ligner en meget dyr impulskøbside:
Elon Musk har tilbudt 54,2 USD per aktie i Twitter kontant
De seneste uger er tvivlen med hensyn til om købet ender med at blive gennemført på de oprindelige betingelser vokset.
Forskellen mellem buddet på 54,2 USD og markedskursen var været så stor, at hvis nye investorer i Twitter ville investere i tiltro til at buddet gennemføres på de oprindelige vilkår, ville de have udsigt til op til 50 % stigning.
En så stor stigning er normalt foreneligt med at 1)Handlen ikke bliver gennemført, eller 2)prisen bliver genforhandlet
Elon Musk har over de seneste uger krævet, at Twitter ledelsen skulle dokumentere, at højest 5 % af brugerne er "bots" = falske.
Elon Musk har fremført, at han mener antallet af "bots" kan være op til 20 % af de samlede offentliggjorte brugere
Mandag fremførte Elon Musk igen, at ledelsen skulle fremlægge dokumentation.
Hvis Elon Musk vil springe fra handlen, skal han have en god grund og oveni formentlig betale en fortrydelsesbøde på 1 mia. USD.
Deal breaker eller lavere købskurs?
Mere og mere tyder på, at Elon Musk har foretaget et impulskøb uden for alvor at tænke forudsætningerne igennem. Elon Musk's offentliggjorte planer har været, at Twitter over de kommende 5 år skal næsten 5 doble antallet af brugere. I den henseende, virker det mest som om Elon Musk enten 1)har fortrudt og været for hurtigt ude og/eller 2)vil genforhandle prisen til et lavere niveau.
Twitter forventer handel til prisen
Twitter var mandag ikke sen til at modreagere på Elon Musks fornyede krav. Selskabet udsendte en meddelelse om, at de forventer at handlen gennemføres til den tilbudte kurs. Det er mere end blot en indikation på, at Elon Musk forsøger at trække et joker i det spil kort, som Twitter ikke anerkender, eller sagt med andre ord: Elon Musk har næppe skriftligt nedfældet et krav, der går på at Twitter skal kunne dokumentere, at eventuelle "bots" kun udgør en lille del af brugerne.
Fanger bordet?
Noget tyder på at bordet fanger for Elon Musk. Twitter vil holde ham fast på sit tilbud. Elon Musk på den anden side er vant til at få sin vilje, være den frie kvidrende fugl, som Twitter, som får det som han vil have det. Det bliver formentlig svært for Elon Musk at vride sig ud af sin forpligtelse, og måske har han været lidt for hurtig ude med sit tilbud?
To be continued..
Elon Musk trækker i land med hensyn til sit købstilbud på Twitter. Anderledes kan man ikke tolke endnu en udtalelse 2. pinsedag, som fik Twitter aktien til af falde. Det ligner en meget dyr impulskøbside:
Elon Musk har tilbudt 54,2 USD per aktie i Twitter kontant
De seneste uger er tvivlen med hensyn til om købet ender med at blive gennemført på de oprindelige betingelser vokset.
Forskellen mellem buddet på 54,2 USD og markedskursen var været så stor, at hvis nye investorer i Twitter ville investere i tiltro til at buddet gennemføres på de oprindelige vilkår, ville de have udsigt til op til 50 % stigning.
En så stor stigning er normalt foreneligt med at 1)Handlen ikke bliver gennemført, eller 2)prisen bliver genforhandlet
Elon Musk har over de seneste uger krævet, at Twitter ledelsen skulle dokumentere, at højest 5 % af brugerne er "bots" = falske.
Elon Musk har fremført, at han mener antallet af "bots" kan være op til 20 % af de samlede offentliggjorte brugere
Mandag fremførte Elon Musk igen, at ledelsen skulle fremlægge dokumentation.
Hvis Elon Musk vil springe fra handlen, skal han have en god grund og oveni formentlig betale en fortrydelsesbøde på 1 mia. USD.
Deal breaker eller lavere købskurs?
Mere og mere tyder på, at Elon Musk har foretaget et impulskøb uden for alvor at tænke forudsætningerne igennem. Elon Musk's offentliggjorte planer har været, at Twitter over de kommende 5 år skal næsten 5 doble antallet af brugere. I den henseende, virker det mest som om Elon Musk enten 1)har fortrudt og været for hurtigt ude og/eller 2)vil genforhandle prisen til et lavere niveau.
Twitter forventer handel til prisen
Twitter var mandag ikke sen til at modreagere på Elon Musks fornyede krav. Selskabet udsendte en meddelelse om, at de forventer at handlen gennemføres til den tilbudte kurs. Det er mere end blot en indikation på, at Elon Musk forsøger at trække et joker i det spil kort, som Twitter ikke anerkender, eller sagt med andre ord: Elon Musk har næppe skriftligt nedfældet et krav, der går på at Twitter skal kunne dokumentere, at eventuelle "bots" kun udgør en lille del af brugerne.
Fanger bordet?
Noget tyder på at bordet fanger for Elon Musk. Twitter vil holde ham fast på sit tilbud. Elon Musk på den anden side er vant til at få sin vilje, være den frie kvidrende fugl, som Twitter, som får det som han vil have det. Det bliver formentlig svært for Elon Musk at vride sig ud af sin forpligtelse, og måske har han været lidt for hurtig ude med sit tilbud?
To be continued..
7/6 2022 19:29 tommycarstensen 2
103935 Jeg tror muligvis også, at det handler om, at finansieringen er besværliggjort af en faldende kurs på Tesla.
Her i øvrigt fra Twitters 10K vedrørende falske konti, hvor de gør opmærksomme på, at 5% er et estimat:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000141809122000029/twtr-20211231.htm
"The numbers of mDAU presented in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are based on internal company data. While these numbers are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement, there are inherent challenges in measuring usage and engagement across our large number of total accounts around the world. Furthermore, our metrics may be impacted by our information quality efforts, which are our overall efforts to reduce malicious activity on the service, inclusive of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. For example, there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated. We are continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU, and have made improvements in our spam detection capabilities that have resulted in the suspension of a large number of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. We intend to continue to make such improvements. After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics. We also treat multiple accounts held by a single person or organization as multiple mDAU because we permit people and organizations to have more than one account. Additionally, some accounts used by organizations are used by many people within the organization. As such, the calculations of our mDAU may not accurately reflect the actual number of people or organizations using our platform."
Her i øvrigt fra Twitters 10K vedrørende falske konti, hvor de gør opmærksomme på, at 5% er et estimat:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000141809122000029/twtr-20211231.htm
"The numbers of mDAU presented in this Annual Report on Form 10-K are based on internal company data. While these numbers are based on what we believe to be reasonable estimates for the applicable period of measurement, there are inherent challenges in measuring usage and engagement across our large number of total accounts around the world. Furthermore, our metrics may be impacted by our information quality efforts, which are our overall efforts to reduce malicious activity on the service, inclusive of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. For example, there are a number of false or spam accounts in existence on our platform. We have performed an internal review of a sample of accounts and estimate that the average of false or spam accounts during the fourth quarter of 2021 represented fewer than 5% of our mDAU during the quarter. The false or spam accounts for a period represents the average of false or spam accounts in the samples during each monthly analysis period during the quarter. In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated. We are continually seeking to improve our ability to estimate the total number of spam accounts and eliminate them from the calculation of our mDAU, and have made improvements in our spam detection capabilities that have resulted in the suspension of a large number of spam, malicious automation, and fake accounts. We intend to continue to make such improvements. After we determine an account is spam, malicious automation, or fake, we stop counting it in our mDAU, or other related metrics. We also treat multiple accounts held by a single person or organization as multiple mDAU because we permit people and organizations to have more than one account. Additionally, some accounts used by organizations are used by many people within the organization. As such, the calculations of our mDAU may not accurately reflect the actual number of people or organizations using our platform."
Twitter har ikke hævdet, at de har et eksakt tal på "bots" eller falske profiler. Elon Musk har vist nok specifikt nævnt, at han har givet afkald på "Due diligence" og han har, såvidt jeg ved, ikke nedfældet, at det er en forudsætning for købet, at der maksimalt er et vist antal falske profiler. Derfor er det for mig mest sandsynligt, at det er EM, som har bolden og skal score, hvis han vil finde en vej ud af handlen. I USA er alt muligt, og hvis han har hyret de allerskarpeste jurahjerner, så klarer han den måske og kommer uden om. Her og nu er det dog mest sandsynligt, at han har fremsendt et lidt impulsagtigt købstilbud - Hilsen Per
7/6 2022 20:41 tommycarstensen 2103937 Jep, her den relevante sætning fra deres 10K ovenfor:
"In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated."
At antallet af falske konti overstiger 5% er rigtig nok ikke en af forudsætningerne for at annullere handlen. Her den relevante 8K-formular fra 25. april med forudsætningerne:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522120461/d310843d8k.htm
"Either Twitter or Parent may terminate the Merger Agreement if, among certain other circumstances, (1) the Merger has not been consummated on or before October 24, 2022, which date will be extended for six months if the closing conditions related to applicable antitrust and foreign investment clearances and the absence of any applicable law or order making illegal or prohibiting the Merger have not been satisfied as of such date; or (2) Twitter's stockholders fail to adopt the Merger Agreement. Twitter may terminate the Merger Agreement in certain additional limited circumstances, including to allow Twitter to enter into a definitive agreement for a competing acquisition proposal that constitutes a Superior Proposal (as defined in the Merger Agreement). Parent may terminate the Merger Agreement in certain additional limited circumstances, including prior to the adoption of the Merger Agreement by Twitter's stockholders if the Board recommends that Twitter's stockholders vote against the adoption of the Merger Agreement or in favor of any competing acquisition proposal."
"Upon termination of the Merger Agreement under other specified limited circumstances, Parent will be required to pay Twitter a termination fee of $1.0 billion. Specifically, this termination fee is payable by Parent to Twitter if the Merger Agreement is terminated by Twitter because (1) the conditions to Parent's and Acquisition Sub's obligations to consummate the Merger are satisfied and the Parent fails to consummate the Merger as required pursuant to, and in the circumstances specified in, the Merger Agreement; or (2) Parent or Acquisition Sub's breaches of its representations, warranties or covenants in a manner that would cause the related closing conditions to not be satisfied. Mr. Musk has provided Twitter with a limited guarantee in favor of Twitter (the "Limited Guarantee"). The Limited Guarantee guarantees, among other things, the payment of the termination fee payable by Parent to Twitter, subject to the conditions set forth in the Limited Guarantee."
"In making this determination, we applied significant judgment, so our estimation of false or spam accounts may not accurately represent the actual number of such accounts, and the actual number of false or spam accounts could be higher than we have estimated."
At antallet af falske konti overstiger 5% er rigtig nok ikke en af forudsætningerne for at annullere handlen. Her den relevante 8K-formular fra 25. april med forudsætningerne:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522120461/d310843d8k.htm
"Either Twitter or Parent may terminate the Merger Agreement if, among certain other circumstances, (1) the Merger has not been consummated on or before October 24, 2022, which date will be extended for six months if the closing conditions related to applicable antitrust and foreign investment clearances and the absence of any applicable law or order making illegal or prohibiting the Merger have not been satisfied as of such date; or (2) Twitter's stockholders fail to adopt the Merger Agreement. Twitter may terminate the Merger Agreement in certain additional limited circumstances, including to allow Twitter to enter into a definitive agreement for a competing acquisition proposal that constitutes a Superior Proposal (as defined in the Merger Agreement). Parent may terminate the Merger Agreement in certain additional limited circumstances, including prior to the adoption of the Merger Agreement by Twitter's stockholders if the Board recommends that Twitter's stockholders vote against the adoption of the Merger Agreement or in favor of any competing acquisition proposal."
"Upon termination of the Merger Agreement under other specified limited circumstances, Parent will be required to pay Twitter a termination fee of $1.0 billion. Specifically, this termination fee is payable by Parent to Twitter if the Merger Agreement is terminated by Twitter because (1) the conditions to Parent's and Acquisition Sub's obligations to consummate the Merger are satisfied and the Parent fails to consummate the Merger as required pursuant to, and in the circumstances specified in, the Merger Agreement; or (2) Parent or Acquisition Sub's breaches of its representations, warranties or covenants in a manner that would cause the related closing conditions to not be satisfied. Mr. Musk has provided Twitter with a limited guarantee in favor of Twitter (the "Limited Guarantee"). The Limited Guarantee guarantees, among other things, the payment of the termination fee payable by Parent to Twitter, subject to the conditions set forth in the Limited Guarantee."
Texas AG launches investigation against Twitter for allegedly misreporting fake bot accounts: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/texas-ag-investigation-twitter-fake-bot-accounts?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
8/6 2022 17:17 tommycarstensen 2103945 Det er vist mere politik end jura, som Fox lægger talerør til. Texas AG Ken Paxton er en interessant fyr, som jeg kender ifm terror-angrebet 6. januar. Her fra Wikipedia:
Paxton has described himself as a Tea Party conservative.
Paxton has been under indictment since 2015 on state securities fraud charges relating to activities prior to taking office. He has pleaded not guilty. In October 2020, several high-level assistants in Paxton's office accused him of "bribery, abuse of office and other crimes".[4][5]
After Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump refused to concede while making false claims of election fraud, Paxton aided Trump in his efforts to overturn the result, from filing the unsuccessful Texas v. Pennsylvania case in the Supreme Court to speaking at the rally Trump held on January 6, 2021, that immediately preceded the 2021 United States Capitol attack.[6][7]
Paxton has described himself as a Tea Party conservative.
Paxton has been under indictment since 2015 on state securities fraud charges relating to activities prior to taking office. He has pleaded not guilty. In October 2020, several high-level assistants in Paxton's office accused him of "bribery, abuse of office and other crimes".[4][5]
After Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election and Donald Trump refused to concede while making false claims of election fraud, Paxton aided Trump in his efforts to overturn the result, from filing the unsuccessful Texas v. Pennsylvania case in the Supreme Court to speaking at the rally Trump held on January 6, 2021, that immediately preceded the 2021 United States Capitol attack.[6][7]
