Buy Target price: SEK 260. Share price: SEK 59.65
"After posting two quarters of promising sales progress, Q3 sales may prove light: fewer transplantations are done in Europe during the summer, and Hansa could also find itself competing for patients with its own post-approval study. We therefore see negative risk/reward going into the Q3 report. During Q4, however, Hansa is due to read out its ph2 randomised trial in AMR, where a positive result could open a path to a SEK 20bn peak sales opportunity.
Seasonality likely to slow uptake in Q3
We forecast Q3 sales of SEK 11.7m, or -40% q/q. Our annual sales forecast, however, remains essentially unchanged. On the other hand, we cut our revenue forecast for 2022 and raise it for 2024 on the basis of later likely milestones from Sarepta than we initially modelled when the deal was struck.
AMR is major potential trigger in latter half of Q4
Hansa is running a phase 2 randomised (but open-label) trial in kidney transplant recipients who are experiencing active antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), in a head-to-head trial against plasma exchange (PE), and it is due to read out soon, most likely in the latter half of Q4/22, given enrolment was completed in May-22. We forecast a potential peak sales opportunity of SEK 21bn in 2034, with a potential 2026 launch. The unmet need is high: although PE is standard of care, the evidence supporting its use is inconsistent and not high quality, in our view.
With potential upside if readout positive, avoid being underweight post-Q3
Given the seasonal operational headwinds and the fact that we are -28% vs. consensus on revenue, we see negative risk/reward going into Q3. However, considering where the share is trading and that expectations around the AMR programme (which we value at SEK 400 p.s. on a fully de-risked basis vs. SEK 40 p.s. in our risk-adj. SOTP) do not appear to be very high, we argue that investors should not be underweight in the share after the report".
Christopher W. Uhde, PhD
Mattias Vadsten
christopher.uhde@seb.se
mattias.vadsten@seb.se
(46) 8 763 8553
(46) 8 763 81 47
Pharma & Biotech Equity Analyst
@UhdeChristopher
"After posting two quarters of promising sales progress, Q3 sales may prove light: fewer transplantations are done in Europe during the summer, and Hansa could also find itself competing for patients with its own post-approval study. We therefore see negative risk/reward going into the Q3 report. During Q4, however, Hansa is due to read out its ph2 randomised trial in AMR, where a positive result could open a path to a SEK 20bn peak sales opportunity.
Seasonality likely to slow uptake in Q3
We forecast Q3 sales of SEK 11.7m, or -40% q/q. Our annual sales forecast, however, remains essentially unchanged. On the other hand, we cut our revenue forecast for 2022 and raise it for 2024 on the basis of later likely milestones from Sarepta than we initially modelled when the deal was struck.
AMR is major potential trigger in latter half of Q4
Hansa is running a phase 2 randomised (but open-label) trial in kidney transplant recipients who are experiencing active antibody-mediated rejection (AMR), in a head-to-head trial against plasma exchange (PE), and it is due to read out soon, most likely in the latter half of Q4/22, given enrolment was completed in May-22. We forecast a potential peak sales opportunity of SEK 21bn in 2034, with a potential 2026 launch. The unmet need is high: although PE is standard of care, the evidence supporting its use is inconsistent and not high quality, in our view.
With potential upside if readout positive, avoid being underweight post-Q3
Given the seasonal operational headwinds and the fact that we are -28% vs. consensus on revenue, we see negative risk/reward going into Q3. However, considering where the share is trading and that expectations around the AMR programme (which we value at SEK 400 p.s. on a fully de-risked basis vs. SEK 40 p.s. in our risk-adj. SOTP) do not appear to be very high, we argue that investors should not be underweight in the share after the report".
Christopher W. Uhde, PhD
Mattias Vadsten
christopher.uhde@seb.se
mattias.vadsten@seb.se
(46) 8 763 8553
(46) 8 763 81 47
Pharma & Biotech Equity Analyst
@UhdeChristopher
Hansa Biopharma presenterar Q3-rapporten d. 20 Okt. kl. 8:00
Hansa Biopharma har meddelt, at selskabet i løbet af september måned har øget antallet af aktier og stemmer som følge af udstedelse af i alt stk. 850,769 C-aktier til dækning af incitamentsprogrammer i selskabet.
C-aktierne har hver 1/10 stemme og er ikke berettiget til udbytte. Med udstedelserne gennem september, er antallet af C-aktier dermed øget til i alt stk. 2.598.012, ud af et samlet antal aktier på stk. 47.186.130, svarende til 5,5 pct.
C-aktierne har hver 1/10 stemme og er ikke berettiget til udbytte. Med udstedelserne gennem september, er antallet af C-aktier dermed øget til i alt stk. 2.598.012, ud af et samlet antal aktier på stk. 47.186.130, svarende til 5,5 pct.
