Kommentar fra Per Hansen, Investeringsøkonom, Nordnet
Investorerne har været mere lunke overfor fedmemarkedet siden stemningen toppede juni 2024. Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly deler markedet mellem sig til 2030. Især Novo Nordisk investorer er meget forbeholdne:
Novo Nordisk aktiekurs er blevet halveret siden toppen i juni 2024.
Prisfastsættelsen er markant under gennemsnittet for de seneste 5 år, som det fremgår af figur 2.
For Eli Lilly har udviklingen været noget anderledes. Det skyldes formentlig kombinationen af at 1)Eli Lilly er amerikansk (og forventes at have hjemmebanefordel i Donald Trumps USA) samt 2)en højere forventet vækst i 2025.
Man kan ikke hævde, at Eli Lillys forskningsdata generelt har været bedre end Novo Nordisk.
I praksis vil Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly formentlig dele markedet mellem sig om ikke til 2030, så i hvert fald de kommende 2-3 år.
Boehringer Ingelheim har et samarbejde med Zealand Pharma, som kan komme på markedet i løbet af de kommende år, men det er ikke noget som for alvor vil ændre med markedskoncentrationen.
Gubra har lavet en stor aftale med AbbVie
Zealand Pharma indgik i sidste uge en gigantisk aftale med Roche.
I begge tilfælde drejer det sig om Fase 1 projekter og Amylin analoger.
Hvis det går som selskaberne håber, er det realistisk, at der i 2030 med det som vi ved i dag, kan være mindst 5 vægttabsmidler på markedet.
Formentlig flere og mon ikke også Pfizer vil være med?
Til den tid er medicineringen formentlig i pilleform.
Novo Nordisk i kurslimbo ligner den patentrisiko som de ikke har
Indtjeningsforventningerne for Novo Nordisk vender næsen opad i 2026/2027 efter at være lidt udfordret i 2025, jævnfør figur 1. At dømme efter kursudviklingen afspejler den et selskab med "patentudfordringer" (at selskabets produkter går af patent uden at man har tilstrækkelig nye til at tage over). Det minder lidt om Genmab og de forhold, som de skal have løst med efterfølgeren med Darzalex efter 2030. Investorerne må frygte, at Novo Nordisk taber betydeligt momentum, men det skyldes hverken patentudløb eller at markedsestimaterne for fedme er gået ned.
Aktietilbagekøb mangler som kursbuffer
Måske er det udviklingen i den forventede indtjening specifikt i 2025, som holder investorerne tilbage. Måske er det udsigten til at Novo Nordisk, i hvert fald med det som vi ved nu, ikke har aktuelle planer om at supplere sit udbytte med et aktietilbagekøb, som er med til at holde aktiekursen nede.
Figur 1: Udviklingen i indtjeningsforventninger for Novo Nordisk for 2025-2027
Kilde: Marketscreener.com
Investorerne har været mere lunke overfor fedmemarkedet siden stemningen toppede juni 2024. Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly deler markedet mellem sig til 2030. Især Novo Nordisk investorer er meget forbeholdne:
Novo Nordisk aktiekurs er blevet halveret siden toppen i juni 2024.
Prisfastsættelsen er markant under gennemsnittet for de seneste 5 år, som det fremgår af figur 2.
For Eli Lilly har udviklingen været noget anderledes. Det skyldes formentlig kombinationen af at 1)Eli Lilly er amerikansk (og forventes at have hjemmebanefordel i Donald Trumps USA) samt 2)en højere forventet vækst i 2025.
Man kan ikke hævde, at Eli Lillys forskningsdata generelt har været bedre end Novo Nordisk.
I praksis vil Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly formentlig dele markedet mellem sig om ikke til 2030, så i hvert fald de kommende 2-3 år.
Boehringer Ingelheim har et samarbejde med Zealand Pharma, som kan komme på markedet i løbet af de kommende år, men det er ikke noget som for alvor vil ændre med markedskoncentrationen.
Gubra har lavet en stor aftale med AbbVie
Zealand Pharma indgik i sidste uge en gigantisk aftale med Roche.
I begge tilfælde drejer det sig om Fase 1 projekter og Amylin analoger.
Hvis det går som selskaberne håber, er det realistisk, at der i 2030 med det som vi ved i dag, kan være mindst 5 vægttabsmidler på markedet.
Formentlig flere og mon ikke også Pfizer vil være med?
Til den tid er medicineringen formentlig i pilleform.
Novo Nordisk i kurslimbo ligner den patentrisiko som de ikke har
Indtjeningsforventningerne for Novo Nordisk vender næsen opad i 2026/2027 efter at være lidt udfordret i 2025, jævnfør figur 1. At dømme efter kursudviklingen afspejler den et selskab med "patentudfordringer" (at selskabets produkter går af patent uden at man har tilstrækkelig nye til at tage over). Det minder lidt om Genmab og de forhold, som de skal have løst med efterfølgeren med Darzalex efter 2030. Investorerne må frygte, at Novo Nordisk taber betydeligt momentum, men det skyldes hverken patentudløb eller at markedsestimaterne for fedme er gået ned.
Aktietilbagekøb mangler som kursbuffer
Måske er det udviklingen i den forventede indtjening specifikt i 2025, som holder investorerne tilbage. Måske er det udsigten til at Novo Nordisk, i hvert fald med det som vi ved nu, ikke har aktuelle planer om at supplere sit udbytte med et aktietilbagekøb, som er med til at holde aktiekursen nede.
Figur 1: Udviklingen i indtjeningsforventninger for Novo Nordisk for 2025-2027
Kilde: Marketscreener.com
17/3 2025 06:44 ProInvestorNEWS 6
125206 Figur 2: Historisk prisfastsættelse, P/E, Novo Nordisk
Kilde: Marketscreener.com
Kilde: Marketscreener.com
17/3 2025 06:45 ProInvestorNEWS 7125207 Figur 3: Kursudvikling, Novo Nordisk/Eli Lilly, 1 år
Kilde: Nordnet
Kilde: Nordnet
17/3 2025 08:47 Stockwatch1 1125209 Analyse fra Kepler Cheuvreux:
GLP-1 at half the price is a compelling possibility
The collapse in Novo's share price and sentiment since mid-2024 has been dramatic - the share has halved from its peak of over DKK 1,000. We have long been negative on the share, as we believe that market optimism has sometimes been greatly exaggerated regarding Novo's obesity drugs and that the risks of competition and pricing have been underestimated. Finally, we believe that the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The various risks and the reduction in long-term profits seem to be far more than priced in at this point. Even if we lower our target price from DKK 715 to DKK 630, this is still a large upside of more than 20 percent, so we upgrade our recommendation from Hold to Buy: we believe this is finally the starting point.
Important results
Catalysts for a sentiment and share price recovery include: Anytime now an improvement in supply and volumes of Wegovy in the US. An uptick in Wegovy prescribing is definitely implied in Novo's latest 2025 outlook which is more optimistic than consensus, and we believe that will be a key driver of sentiment in the near term. Lilly's orforgliprone (GLP-1 tablet) coming in June or in the third quarter has been so well flagged as a "negative catalyst" for Novo Nordisk, that we actually see the potential for significant upside for Novo Nordisk if the results understate either efficacy or safety. We do not consider the risk-return for orforgliprone at such a depressed Novo Nordisk valuation to be a "reason to sell Novo Nordisk now". Semaglutide's Alzheimer's reconciliation, which is likely to come in the third quarter, has a good risk-return profile, in our opinion: several positive precedents/indicators exist that it could very well work, and yet there is currently very little attention, optimism or forecasts for it. The strong krona in relation to the purchasing currencies euro and dollar with a certain lag, the group emphasizes that the negative translation of sales in Norwegian kroner has the greatest effect and has a direct impact. Operating expenses increased by 9 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous year. Management pointed to slightly higher marketing expenses, which is due to the opportunities to generate traffic at lower costs during the quarter. However, this should not be interpreted as a sign that the same trend will continue. The balance sheet improved further to a net cash of 1.0x ebitda excluding leasing. It is still unclear for what purposes this can be used; further acquisitions look less likely and any additional dividend is uncertain.
Forecast review
We have the following key assumptions in our model for Novo Nordisk: We have never been particularly optimistic about CagriSema - we are broadly maintaining our forecast of a total of $12 billion for CagriSema: $8 billion in obesity (around 10 percent market share) and $4 billion in diabetes. Consensus had been as high as $30 billion in CagriSema sales during the period when the market was extremely bullish on Novo Nordisk. We believe $12 billion is realistic and achievable as we expect REDEFINE-4 to show a weight loss of around 25 percent for CagriSema by the end of 2026, supported by more optimized dosing. Our near-term earnings revision is marginally positive, based on Novo's strong outlook for 2025. It would have been even more positive, but we are already taking into account the large negative currency effects of the recent past (significantly weaker dollar).
Valuation and investment conclusion
The biggest change that lowers our target price from DKK 715 to DKK 630 is a significant increase in our assumption of cost of equity: from only 5.9 percent to 8.5 percent now. This reflects investors' willingness to own the share and the perceived competition and risk. According to our figures, Novo is now trading at only a p/e of 12 based on the 2028 forecast, which is an average for the sector. Just a few months ago, Novo was valued at well over twice the sector's p/e based on the 2028 forecast. We raise the recommendation to Buy (Hold), target price DKK 630 (715).
GLP-1 at half the price is a compelling possibility
The collapse in Novo's share price and sentiment since mid-2024 has been dramatic - the share has halved from its peak of over DKK 1,000. We have long been negative on the share, as we believe that market optimism has sometimes been greatly exaggerated regarding Novo's obesity drugs and that the risks of competition and pricing have been underestimated. Finally, we believe that the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The various risks and the reduction in long-term profits seem to be far more than priced in at this point. Even if we lower our target price from DKK 715 to DKK 630, this is still a large upside of more than 20 percent, so we upgrade our recommendation from Hold to Buy: we believe this is finally the starting point.
Important results
Catalysts for a sentiment and share price recovery include: Anytime now an improvement in supply and volumes of Wegovy in the US. An uptick in Wegovy prescribing is definitely implied in Novo's latest 2025 outlook which is more optimistic than consensus, and we believe that will be a key driver of sentiment in the near term. Lilly's orforgliprone (GLP-1 tablet) coming in June or in the third quarter has been so well flagged as a "negative catalyst" for Novo Nordisk, that we actually see the potential for significant upside for Novo Nordisk if the results understate either efficacy or safety. We do not consider the risk-return for orforgliprone at such a depressed Novo Nordisk valuation to be a "reason to sell Novo Nordisk now". Semaglutide's Alzheimer's reconciliation, which is likely to come in the third quarter, has a good risk-return profile, in our opinion: several positive precedents/indicators exist that it could very well work, and yet there is currently very little attention, optimism or forecasts for it. The strong krona in relation to the purchasing currencies euro and dollar with a certain lag, the group emphasizes that the negative translation of sales in Norwegian kroner has the greatest effect and has a direct impact. Operating expenses increased by 9 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous year. Management pointed to slightly higher marketing expenses, which is due to the opportunities to generate traffic at lower costs during the quarter. However, this should not be interpreted as a sign that the same trend will continue. The balance sheet improved further to a net cash of 1.0x ebitda excluding leasing. It is still unclear for what purposes this can be used; further acquisitions look less likely and any additional dividend is uncertain.
Forecast review
We have the following key assumptions in our model for Novo Nordisk: We have never been particularly optimistic about CagriSema - we are broadly maintaining our forecast of a total of $12 billion for CagriSema: $8 billion in obesity (around 10 percent market share) and $4 billion in diabetes. Consensus had been as high as $30 billion in CagriSema sales during the period when the market was extremely bullish on Novo Nordisk. We believe $12 billion is realistic and achievable as we expect REDEFINE-4 to show a weight loss of around 25 percent for CagriSema by the end of 2026, supported by more optimized dosing. Our near-term earnings revision is marginally positive, based on Novo's strong outlook for 2025. It would have been even more positive, but we are already taking into account the large negative currency effects of the recent past (significantly weaker dollar).
Valuation and investment conclusion
The biggest change that lowers our target price from DKK 715 to DKK 630 is a significant increase in our assumption of cost of equity: from only 5.9 percent to 8.5 percent now. This reflects investors' willingness to own the share and the perceived competition and risk. According to our figures, Novo is now trading at only a p/e of 12 based on the 2028 forecast, which is an average for the sector. Just a few months ago, Novo was valued at well over twice the sector's p/e based on the 2028 forecast. We raise the recommendation to Buy (Hold), target price DKK 630 (715).
