Kommentar fra Per Hansen, Investeringsøkonom, Nordnet
Novo Nordisk stiger 5 % i dag, mens Eli Lilly falder efter nedjustering af indtjeningsforventningerne. Her er mit perspektiv
Novo Nordisk stiger med næsten 5 %
Årsagen er ikke mindst, at Novo Nordisk har lavet en aftale med CVS Caremark, som er USA største Pharma Benefit Manager (PBM), som gør det sandsynligt, at mange flere vælger Novo frem for Lilly, som erstattes i aftalen. CVS har markedsandel på 27 % i USA.
Det er anden aftale på kort sigt efter HIMS m.fl
Det sker samtidig med at Eli Lilly falder 5-6 % efter deres regnskab
Eli Lilly fastholder forventninger på omsætning men nedjusterer deres indtjeningsforventninger
Nedjusteringen skyldes dog ikke vægttabsområdet.
Måske er fastholdelse for lidt til Eli Lillys aktiekurs skuffende
Der har været en ekstrem forskel mellem udviklingen i Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly de seneste måneder. Fornemmelsen for at Eli Lilly haler ind på Novo Nordisk har været med til at drive denne forskel. Prisfastsættelsen er meget forskellig (Novo billig, Lilly højt prissat). I den henseende er "som forventet" fra Eli Lilly måske for lidt, og det kan være det som er med til at sende Eli Lilly ned, mens Novo Nordisk stiger
Figur 1: Kursudvikling, 3 måneder Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly
Kilde: Nordnet
Novo Nordisk stiger 5 % i dag, mens Eli Lilly falder efter nedjustering af indtjeningsforventningerne. Her er mit perspektiv
Novo Nordisk stiger med næsten 5 %
Årsagen er ikke mindst, at Novo Nordisk har lavet en aftale med CVS Caremark, som er USA største Pharma Benefit Manager (PBM), som gør det sandsynligt, at mange flere vælger Novo frem for Lilly, som erstattes i aftalen. CVS har markedsandel på 27 % i USA.
Det er anden aftale på kort sigt efter HIMS m.fl
Det sker samtidig med at Eli Lilly falder 5-6 % efter deres regnskab
Eli Lilly fastholder forventninger på omsætning men nedjusterer deres indtjeningsforventninger
Nedjusteringen skyldes dog ikke vægttabsområdet.
Måske er fastholdelse for lidt til Eli Lillys aktiekurs skuffende
Der har været en ekstrem forskel mellem udviklingen i Novo Nordisk og Eli Lilly de seneste måneder. Fornemmelsen for at Eli Lilly haler ind på Novo Nordisk har været med til at drive denne forskel. Prisfastsættelsen er meget forskellig (Novo billig, Lilly højt prissat). I den henseende er "som forventet" fra Eli Lilly måske for lidt, og det kan være det som er med til at sende Eli Lilly ned, mens Novo Nordisk stiger
Figur 1: Kursudvikling, 3 måneder Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly
Kilde: Nordnet
1/5 2025 17:29 ProInvestorNEWS 3
126140 Lilly's Q1 revenue surge overshadowed by CVS dumping Zepbound for Wegovy
https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5955788
https://firstwordpharma.com/story/5955788
1/5 2025 17:30 ProInvestorNEWS 4126141 Eli Lilly kritiserer CVS' Novo-aftale: Markedsadgang bør udvides - ikke reduceres
1/5 16:52
Eli Lilly bifalder ikke beslutningen fra sygekassen CVS om at foretrække Novo Nordisks vægttabsmiddel Wegovy.
Det siger topchef Dave Ricks ved selskabets telekonference i forbindelse med regnskabet for første kvartal.
Kommentaren følger en beslutning fra CVS Health om at tilbyde sine kunder udvidet adgang til Wegovy. Det sker dog på bekostning af adgangen til Lillys pendant Zepbound, der fra 1. juli får frataget sin status som foretrukken.
- Vi ser en megakategori her, der vil have mange valg og løsninger, og det virker som den forkerte beslutning at reducere udvalget, siger topchefen.
- Måske er der nogle patienter, der tager Zepbound på recept, og fra 1. juli har de ikke længere den mulighed. Jeg tror, at de vil være oprørte - vi får at se, hvordan markedet reagerer, og hvordan markedsandelene bevæger sig, fortsætter han og tilføjer:
- Vores præference er at øge adgangen - ikke reducere den.
CVS' beslutning kom dog ikke som en større overraskelse, konstaterer Patrik Jonsson, der er chef for Lillys amerikanske forretning.
Det er ikke muligt for Lilly at sætte et præcist antal på, hvor mange patienter der serviceres gennem CVS, siger Patrik Jonsson videre og tilføjer, at det ikke er i den høje ende.
.\˙ MarketWire
1/5 16:52
Eli Lilly bifalder ikke beslutningen fra sygekassen CVS om at foretrække Novo Nordisks vægttabsmiddel Wegovy.
Det siger topchef Dave Ricks ved selskabets telekonference i forbindelse med regnskabet for første kvartal.
Kommentaren følger en beslutning fra CVS Health om at tilbyde sine kunder udvidet adgang til Wegovy. Det sker dog på bekostning af adgangen til Lillys pendant Zepbound, der fra 1. juli får frataget sin status som foretrukken.
- Vi ser en megakategori her, der vil have mange valg og løsninger, og det virker som den forkerte beslutning at reducere udvalget, siger topchefen.
- Måske er der nogle patienter, der tager Zepbound på recept, og fra 1. juli har de ikke længere den mulighed. Jeg tror, at de vil være oprørte - vi får at se, hvordan markedet reagerer, og hvordan markedsandelene bevæger sig, fortsætter han og tilføjer:
- Vores præference er at øge adgangen - ikke reducere den.
CVS' beslutning kom dog ikke som en større overraskelse, konstaterer Patrik Jonsson, der er chef for Lillys amerikanske forretning.
Det er ikke muligt for Lilly at sætte et præcist antal på, hvor mange patienter der serviceres gennem CVS, siger Patrik Jonsson videre og tilføjer, at det ikke er i den høje ende.
.\˙ MarketWire
Tak for deling. Her fra hestens egen mund...
Earnings call transcript: Eli Lilly's Q1 2025 results miss EPS forecast, stock drops
https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-eli-lillys-q1-2025-results-miss-eps-forecast-stock-drops-93CH-4017419
Mohit Bansal, Analyst, Wells Fargo: think going back to the CVS announcement this morning, there are two ways to look at it. I mean, one could be, which, you know, obviously the stop reaction is like that. It seems like, I mean, a Z bound versus the Gobi kind of price war, or the other way could be, I mean, looking at CVS comments, it seems like a lot of our employers did not opt in and CVS is finding a way to actually provide affordable access to this medicine. How do you view this development? And in longer term, think, is it better versus GLP-1s you see, or is it a GLP-1s versus the access situation you see this is going to evolve over a couple of years?
Mike Spar, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Eli Lilly: Thanks for the question, Mohit. I think, Dave, do you want to elaborate on some of the earlier comments about the CVS, Yeah,
Dave Briggs, Chair and CEO, Eli Lilly: actually, mean, think those are good questions to ask Novo and CVS, really. Just pointing out that the book of business we're talking about is smaller employers who tended to let, you know, take the templated formulary, the opt in rates already are low. So it is possible that depending on what net price that CVS is going offer this client, so you get more opt in. I think that's a net good thing overall, because what we see despite the press is when employers opt in, tend to not opt out. Employees like to be on these medicines and there's a big study yesterday you may have seen from Aon, which looked at real world data, which is very compelling.
Within two years there's ROI, a 40% reduction in MACE events in the real world, etcetera. So that could be good as you're saying. On the other hand, I guess we're focused on innovation and differentiation. We see kind of a mega category here that will have many different choices and solutions. And it seems like the wrong idea to reduce choice.
Maybe there's patients who are taking Zepbound in one of these formularies and as of July 1 they won't have that choice, I think they'll be quite upset about that. And we'll see how the market reacts and how much share it gets moved ultimately, but as I said, our preference is to expand access, not reduce it.
Earnings call transcript: Eli Lilly's Q1 2025 results miss EPS forecast, stock drops
https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-eli-lillys-q1-2025-results-miss-eps-forecast-stock-drops-93CH-4017419
Mohit Bansal, Analyst, Wells Fargo: think going back to the CVS announcement this morning, there are two ways to look at it. I mean, one could be, which, you know, obviously the stop reaction is like that. It seems like, I mean, a Z bound versus the Gobi kind of price war, or the other way could be, I mean, looking at CVS comments, it seems like a lot of our employers did not opt in and CVS is finding a way to actually provide affordable access to this medicine. How do you view this development? And in longer term, think, is it better versus GLP-1s you see, or is it a GLP-1s versus the access situation you see this is going to evolve over a couple of years?
Mike Spar, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Eli Lilly: Thanks for the question, Mohit. I think, Dave, do you want to elaborate on some of the earlier comments about the CVS, Yeah,
Dave Briggs, Chair and CEO, Eli Lilly: actually, mean, think those are good questions to ask Novo and CVS, really. Just pointing out that the book of business we're talking about is smaller employers who tended to let, you know, take the templated formulary, the opt in rates already are low. So it is possible that depending on what net price that CVS is going offer this client, so you get more opt in. I think that's a net good thing overall, because what we see despite the press is when employers opt in, tend to not opt out. Employees like to be on these medicines and there's a big study yesterday you may have seen from Aon, which looked at real world data, which is very compelling.
Within two years there's ROI, a 40% reduction in MACE events in the real world, etcetera. So that could be good as you're saying. On the other hand, I guess we're focused on innovation and differentiation. We see kind of a mega category here that will have many different choices and solutions. And it seems like the wrong idea to reduce choice.
Maybe there's patients who are taking Zepbound in one of these formularies and as of July 1 they won't have that choice, I think they'll be quite upset about that. And we'll see how the market reacts and how much share it gets moved ultimately, but as I said, our preference is to expand access, not reduce it.
Vedhaeftet udvalgte slides fra deres Q1-praesentation. Klik for at goere dem stoerre. Laeses fra venstre til hoejre.
Jeg har ogsaa vedhaeftet tre figurer med omsaetning for relevante segmenter i de tre store PBMer.
Lilly reports first-quarter 2025 financial results and highlights pipeline momentum
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and
- Revenue in Q1 2025 increased 45% to $12.73 billion driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound.
- Pipeline progress included positive Phase 3 trial results for orforglipron (small molecule oral GLP-1 agonist) in Type 2 diabetes in the first of seven obesity and diabetes Phase 3 trials.
- Q1 2025 EPS increased 23% to $3.06 on a reported basis and increased 29% to $3.34 on a non-GAAP basis, both inclusive of $1.72 of acquired IPR&D charges.
- Revenue guidance reaffirmed to be between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion.
Jeg har ogsaa vedhaeftet tre figurer med omsaetning for relevante segmenter i de tre store PBMer.
Lilly reports first-quarter 2025 financial results and highlights pipeline momentum
https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-reports-first-quarter-2025-financial-results-and
- Revenue in Q1 2025 increased 45% to $12.73 billion driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound.
- Pipeline progress included positive Phase 3 trial results for orforglipron (small molecule oral GLP-1 agonist) in Type 2 diabetes in the first of seven obesity and diabetes Phase 3 trials.
- Q1 2025 EPS increased 23% to $3.06 on a reported basis and increased 29% to $3.34 on a non-GAAP basis, both inclusive of $1.72 of acquired IPR&D charges.
- Revenue guidance reaffirmed to be between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion.
