Der er gaaet 45 dage siden 3. kvartal sluttede, og der er kommet oversigter over, hvad guruerne har koebt i 3. kvartal. Jeg kopierer aldrig nogen, men jeg lader mig gerne inspirere. Smith/Robbins (Fundsmith) og Buffett/Munger/Weschler/Combs (Berkshire) er mine to guruer. Jeg har vedhaeftet en figur med deres og mine stoerste koeb i aar. Bemaerk Alphabet er steget 60% siden 3. kvartal begyndte. Den laa tidligere laengere nede mod hoejre hjoerne i plottet.
Terry Smith har forresten baade Novo Nordisk og Coloplast i portefoeljen.
2025-07-08 Terry Smith blames Danish medical companies for underperformance
https://www.ftadviser.com/global-equity-funds/2025/7/8/terry-smith-blames-danish-medical-companies-for-underperformance/
- "Founder Terry Smith put this down to underperformance of healthcare company Novo Nordisk in his semi-annual letter to shareholders."
- "He said another Danish medical company, Coloplast, was one of the other largest detractors and together the pair accounted for more than all the underperformance."
Her er i oevrigt en video fra Fundsmiths aarlige moede tilbage i februar:
Novo Nordisk bliver naevnt en del gange. Nedenfor transkription fra Google Gemini, som jeg har rettet for nogle smaa fejl. Der bliver snakket specifikt om Novo 50 minutter inde i videoen. Julian Robbins snakker om transition fra injektion til pille. Det samme har Lars Rebien og Mike Doustdar snakket om de seneste par dage. Terry Smith snakker om faldende markedsandele, men et vaesentligt stoerre marked. Terry Smith naevner produktions-kapacitet og yderlige labels som en konkurrence-fordel. Han var lidt for optimistisk mht salgs-vaeksten i 2025. Fra hestens egen mund i videoen og nedenfor.
[12:45] Terry Smith: "And last [but] not least Novo Nordisk. This is the Danish company which has pioneered the weight loss drugs, uh Ozempic for diabetes, Wegovy for... weight loss. Quite an interesting year in terms of that... at one point the shares were off about 45% notwithstanding a fantastic performance in terms of developing the drugs and claiming market leadership."
[26:33] Terry Smith: "Huge capital investment by two sets of companies that we own. One is Novo Nordisk in the drugs business. Novo Nordisk has a runaway success with the weight loss drugs and they are building capacity to make those drugs as fast as they can go. They did an acquisition for $10 billion of three manufacturing plants recently."
[50:19] Julian Robbins: "Novo Nordisk, if you'd have said to... one of the big typical drug companies... 15 years ago, they barely would even have regarded Novo Nordisk as a serious drug company. They were saying 'oh they're just a kind of insulin business' and Eli Lilly has not been a successful US pharmaceutical company at all. So the fact that that this gold mine has been struck by these two companies is something which is very irksome to the large players."
[51:14] Julian Robbins: "If you had a molecule... and you thought it might have some sort of weight loss [potential]... the people you probably would have gone to were people like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk because they were the people who were experts and interested in this field."
[52:06] Julian Robbins: "At the moment, the current market is an injectable market... Two things will certainly happen in the future which is the injectable market will also become an oral market... and the other thing is that one of the obvious drawbacks of the current class of drugs is that once you stop taking them you tend to put quite a lot or some of the weight back on... and so we will go from having an injectable just injectable weight loss drugs to a class of drugs which will probably be known as weight management drugs which will be in oral form and you will take them every day or every week in the way that you take a statin or an aspirin."
[53:35] Terry Smith: "Bear in mind that we bought Novo about six years ago before weight loss was ever mentioned. We were looking at drug discovery process for this company which we found attractive."
[53:50] Terry Smith: "Now that they have actually got to this competitive position where they've got about two-thirds of the market... that won't persist. There will be competition, they will have less than two-thirds, I'm absolutely certain about that. But it will also be... a significantly bigger number on the numbers Julian's quoted, somewhere between three and 10 times the current size that it is currently."
[54:50] Terry Smith: "They've also got manufacturing efficiency and capacity. Making these drugs is non-trivial-we're not talking about aspirin right? We're talking about... 31 amino acids in sequence is what actually goes to make this molecule, and the capacity is very limited at the moment for doing this."
[55:18] Terry Smith: "Novo again I think is ahead there apart from being early on the field. They bought three manufacturing plants for 10 billion to take this forward... one of the three manufacturing plants does a contract manufacturing for Eli Lilly."
[56:05] Terry Smith: "Novo Nordisk are ahead in having done that work first of all in weight loss because they got there first in terms of having the data for a normal population... and they continue to be at the leading edge of additional labeling."
[01:32:42] Terry Smith: "I thought I'd go back to our good old friends Novo Nordisk uh once again. So what have we got on our hands here? We've got on our hands a company which... had 290 billion in terms of revenues, is growing revenues at about 25%... It's got a gross margin of 85%... and it's got a 44% operating margin... its return on capital... is a mere 69%."
[01:34:22] Terry Smith: "Our friends at Novo got two-thirds of the market so it'd be kind of extraordinary if Novo were able to continue outpacing them [Eli Lilly]... I'm not particularly worried about that... I think that will continue to be a controversial situation for 2025... but at the moment I think that's... likely to be our most controversial share... for 2025."
Terry Smith har forresten baade Novo Nordisk og Coloplast i portefoeljen.
2025-07-08 Terry Smith blames Danish medical companies for underperformance
https://www.ftadviser.com/global-equity-funds/2025/7/8/terry-smith-blames-danish-medical-companies-for-underperformance/
- "Founder Terry Smith put this down to underperformance of healthcare company Novo Nordisk in his semi-annual letter to shareholders."
- "He said another Danish medical company, Coloplast, was one of the other largest detractors and together the pair accounted for more than all the underperformance."
Her er i oevrigt en video fra Fundsmiths aarlige moede tilbage i februar:
Novo Nordisk bliver naevnt en del gange. Nedenfor transkription fra Google Gemini, som jeg har rettet for nogle smaa fejl. Der bliver snakket specifikt om Novo 50 minutter inde i videoen. Julian Robbins snakker om transition fra injektion til pille. Det samme har Lars Rebien og Mike Doustdar snakket om de seneste par dage. Terry Smith snakker om faldende markedsandele, men et vaesentligt stoerre marked. Terry Smith naevner produktions-kapacitet og yderlige labels som en konkurrence-fordel. Han var lidt for optimistisk mht salgs-vaeksten i 2025. Fra hestens egen mund i videoen og nedenfor.
[12:45] Terry Smith: "And last [but] not least Novo Nordisk. This is the Danish company which has pioneered the weight loss drugs, uh Ozempic for diabetes, Wegovy for... weight loss. Quite an interesting year in terms of that... at one point the shares were off about 45% notwithstanding a fantastic performance in terms of developing the drugs and claiming market leadership."
[26:33] Terry Smith: "Huge capital investment by two sets of companies that we own. One is Novo Nordisk in the drugs business. Novo Nordisk has a runaway success with the weight loss drugs and they are building capacity to make those drugs as fast as they can go. They did an acquisition for $10 billion of three manufacturing plants recently."
[50:19] Julian Robbins: "Novo Nordisk, if you'd have said to... one of the big typical drug companies... 15 years ago, they barely would even have regarded Novo Nordisk as a serious drug company. They were saying 'oh they're just a kind of insulin business' and Eli Lilly has not been a successful US pharmaceutical company at all. So the fact that that this gold mine has been struck by these two companies is something which is very irksome to the large players."
[51:14] Julian Robbins: "If you had a molecule... and you thought it might have some sort of weight loss [potential]... the people you probably would have gone to were people like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk because they were the people who were experts and interested in this field."
[52:06] Julian Robbins: "At the moment, the current market is an injectable market... Two things will certainly happen in the future which is the injectable market will also become an oral market... and the other thing is that one of the obvious drawbacks of the current class of drugs is that once you stop taking them you tend to put quite a lot or some of the weight back on... and so we will go from having an injectable just injectable weight loss drugs to a class of drugs which will probably be known as weight management drugs which will be in oral form and you will take them every day or every week in the way that you take a statin or an aspirin."
[53:35] Terry Smith: "Bear in mind that we bought Novo about six years ago before weight loss was ever mentioned. We were looking at drug discovery process for this company which we found attractive."
[53:50] Terry Smith: "Now that they have actually got to this competitive position where they've got about two-thirds of the market... that won't persist. There will be competition, they will have less than two-thirds, I'm absolutely certain about that. But it will also be... a significantly bigger number on the numbers Julian's quoted, somewhere between three and 10 times the current size that it is currently."
[54:50] Terry Smith: "They've also got manufacturing efficiency and capacity. Making these drugs is non-trivial-we're not talking about aspirin right? We're talking about... 31 amino acids in sequence is what actually goes to make this molecule, and the capacity is very limited at the moment for doing this."
[55:18] Terry Smith: "Novo again I think is ahead there apart from being early on the field. They bought three manufacturing plants for 10 billion to take this forward... one of the three manufacturing plants does a contract manufacturing for Eli Lilly."
[56:05] Terry Smith: "Novo Nordisk are ahead in having done that work first of all in weight loss because they got there first in terms of having the data for a normal population... and they continue to be at the leading edge of additional labeling."
[01:32:42] Terry Smith: "I thought I'd go back to our good old friends Novo Nordisk uh once again. So what have we got on our hands here? We've got on our hands a company which... had 290 billion in terms of revenues, is growing revenues at about 25%... It's got a gross margin of 85%... and it's got a 44% operating margin... its return on capital... is a mere 69%."
[01:34:22] Terry Smith: "Our friends at Novo got two-thirds of the market so it'd be kind of extraordinary if Novo were able to continue outpacing them [Eli Lilly]... I'm not particularly worried about that... I think that will continue to be a controversial situation for 2025... but at the moment I think that's... likely to be our most controversial share... for 2025."
Jeg transkriberede i oevrigt delvist Novo-generalforsamlingen her:
https://proinvestor.com/boards/129651/
Video tilgaengelig her:
https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/extraordinary-general-meeting.html?utm_source=proinvestor.com
https://proinvestor.com/boards/129651/
Video tilgaengelig her:
https://www.novonordisk.com/investors/extraordinary-general-meeting.html?utm_source=proinvestor.com
