Jeg har lige brugt lidt tid på at studere jernbaner som investeringsobjekt. Måske i håb om at finde noget lidt mere stabilt end sox-indekset.. Jeg har brugt Yahoo Finance, Gemini og lidt sund fornuft og kritisk sans. Måske andre kan bidrage med vinkler jeg overser.
USA/Canada
Pga geografien handler jernbanerne primært om varetransport - enorme lasttog, der i princippet erstatter vores containerskibe og coastere.
Jernbanerne er privatejede, og koncentreret omkring få store spillere. Meget stabil indtjeningsvækst, aktierne er cykliske og rentefølsomme - så køb dem når de er billige. Det er de ikke nu. Fx Union Pacific Corporation, mcap på $161bn (mia), P/E 22,33.
Så kan man kikke på dem der leverer togvogne og lokomotiver - Wabtec er dyr P/E ~38,, Trinity (TRN) & Greenbrier (GBX) er rimeligt prissat.
Indien må være et oplagt sted at investere i skinner tænker jeg. Det har andre så også tænkt. Selve banerne er statsejede, og de private aktører handler til høje multipler. IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corp) er dog faldet noget tilbage, men kan kun handles i Mumbai.
Ukraine (/østeuropa)
Her finansierer EU og EIB bygning af nye standardspor (tidl. russiske bredspor), og første etape på 22 km er klar.
Egypten
Promptet om hvor jernbaner står foran en gylden æra, når henses til demografi, økonomi og geografi, så spytter Gemini Egypten ud (samt Ukraine og Indien). Lige nu bygger Siemens et af verdens længste højhastighedsnet på 2.000 km, bl.a. til at aflaste Suez-kanalen https://press.siemens.com/global/en/feature/transform-mobility-egypt.
Da banerne i de fleste lande er statsejede, må man som investor kikke på leverandører og entreprenører (det er helt specielt for USA og Canada, at private får lov at have monopol på de nationale jernbanenet - det er faktisk ret besynderligt, ud fra en klassisk lærebog i økonomi).
Omkring selskaber har jeg også fået hjælp af Gemini.
Vossloh AG - Tyskland. Stærke på sporskifter.
CAF - Spanien. Tog/letbaner, signalsystemer.
Alstom - Frankrig. Den globale gigant, kun overgået af det statslige kinesiske selskab. Aktien har haft en hård tid efter Alstom købte Bombardier, og arvede en række urentable projekter og fik en enorm gældsbyrde. Det lysner på de finansielle problemer, og ordrebogen er enorm, men der er problemer med eksekveringen.
Siemens AG - Tyskland. Siemens Mobility laver tog, men det er jo et konglomerat.
Hvis man er til stabil vækst og lavt afkast, så kunne amerikanske godsvogne (Trinity og Greenbrier) eller europæisk isenkram (Vossloh og CAF) være kandidater. Skal der lidt mere risiko på bogen, så er Wabtec, Union Pacific og Alstom kandidater.
Jeg har faktisk haft Alstom på en obs-liste længe, men har nok ikke fået læst på casen - aktien er i nedtrend, så måske skal jeg følge den lidt mere. Men de kommende kvartaler skulle gerne vise fremgang, og så kan der komme et turnaround.
USA/Canada
Pga geografien handler jernbanerne primært om varetransport - enorme lasttog, der i princippet erstatter vores containerskibe og coastere.
Jernbanerne er privatejede, og koncentreret omkring få store spillere. Meget stabil indtjeningsvækst, aktierne er cykliske og rentefølsomme - så køb dem når de er billige. Det er de ikke nu. Fx Union Pacific Corporation, mcap på $161bn (mia), P/E 22,33.
Så kan man kikke på dem der leverer togvogne og lokomotiver - Wabtec er dyr P/E ~38,, Trinity (TRN) & Greenbrier (GBX) er rimeligt prissat.
Indien må være et oplagt sted at investere i skinner tænker jeg. Det har andre så også tænkt. Selve banerne er statsejede, og de private aktører handler til høje multipler. IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corp) er dog faldet noget tilbage, men kan kun handles i Mumbai.
Ukraine (/østeuropa)
Her finansierer EU og EIB bygning af nye standardspor (tidl. russiske bredspor), og første etape på 22 km er klar.
Egypten
Promptet om hvor jernbaner står foran en gylden æra, når henses til demografi, økonomi og geografi, så spytter Gemini Egypten ud (samt Ukraine og Indien). Lige nu bygger Siemens et af verdens længste højhastighedsnet på 2.000 km, bl.a. til at aflaste Suez-kanalen https://press.siemens.com/global/en/feature/transform-mobility-egypt.
Da banerne i de fleste lande er statsejede, må man som investor kikke på leverandører og entreprenører (det er helt specielt for USA og Canada, at private får lov at have monopol på de nationale jernbanenet - det er faktisk ret besynderligt, ud fra en klassisk lærebog i økonomi).
Omkring selskaber har jeg også fået hjælp af Gemini.
Vossloh AG - Tyskland. Stærke på sporskifter.
CAF - Spanien. Tog/letbaner, signalsystemer.
Alstom - Frankrig. Den globale gigant, kun overgået af det statslige kinesiske selskab. Aktien har haft en hård tid efter Alstom købte Bombardier, og arvede en række urentable projekter og fik en enorm gældsbyrde. Det lysner på de finansielle problemer, og ordrebogen er enorm, men der er problemer med eksekveringen.
Siemens AG - Tyskland. Siemens Mobility laver tog, men det er jo et konglomerat.
Hvis man er til stabil vækst og lavt afkast, så kunne amerikanske godsvogne (Trinity og Greenbrier) eller europæisk isenkram (Vossloh og CAF) være kandidater. Skal der lidt mere risiko på bogen, så er Wabtec, Union Pacific og Alstom kandidater.
Jeg har faktisk haft Alstom på en obs-liste længe, men har nok ikke fået læst på casen - aktien er i nedtrend, så måske skal jeg følge den lidt mere. Men de kommende kvartaler skulle gerne vise fremgang, og så kan der komme et turnaround.
10/6 2026 12:52 EliotSpitzer 4
132712 Bullish - Der er andre som har tænkt i samme baner som dig men dog nogle år tilbake.
Warren Buffet og hans investringsselskab "Berkshire Hathaway" har ikke blot været investor i jernbaner, men ejer i dag et af de største jernbaneselskaber i Nordamerika. I 2009 annoncerede Warren Buffett opkøbet af Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), og handlen blev gennemført i 2010 som et af Berkshires største opkøb på det tidspunkt.
BNSF Railway er i dag en af de førende fragtjernbaner i USA og transporterer blandt andet kul, landbrugsprodukter, industrivarer samt containere via intermodal transport. Buffett beskrev selv opkøbet som et "væddemål på USA's fremtid", idet jernbanetransport er en central og relativt effektiv måde at flytte varer over lange afstande på. Bemærk at BNSF er fortsat en helejet dattervirksomhed under Berkshire Hathaway.
Warren Buffet og hans investringsselskab "Berkshire Hathaway" har ikke blot været investor i jernbaner, men ejer i dag et af de største jernbaneselskaber i Nordamerika. I 2009 annoncerede Warren Buffett opkøbet af Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF), og handlen blev gennemført i 2010 som et af Berkshires største opkøb på det tidspunkt.
BNSF Railway er i dag en af de førende fragtjernbaner i USA og transporterer blandt andet kul, landbrugsprodukter, industrivarer samt containere via intermodal transport. Buffett beskrev selv opkøbet som et "væddemål på USA's fremtid", idet jernbanetransport er en central og relativt effektiv måde at flytte varer over lange afstande på. Bemærk at BNSF er fortsat en helejet dattervirksomhed under Berkshire Hathaway.
12/6 2026 11:18 Bullish 0132754 Sjovt nok er LUFTHAVNENE i USA ikke børsnoterede, men typisk ejet af stater og bykommuner. Kun San Juan i Puerto Rico er børsnoteret - og den er 60% ejet af den mexicanske lufthavnsgruppe Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (NYSE:ASR). ASR har også lige overtaget et netværk af lufthavne i Brasilien, spændende at se om det kan blive en god forretning. Jeg køber en lille position. Så blev det fly i stedet for tog.
13/6 2026 10:10 Hanibal 0132764 Her er lidt flere selskaber at tage i betragtning der er eksponeret mod industrien.
Stadler Rail AG (Ticker: SRAIL.SW)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Bussnang, Switzerland
Business summary: Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling. The Rolling Stock segment manufactures various rail vehicles comprising high-speed, intercity, regional trains, city transport, locomotives, and tailor made, as well as passenger coaches, light rails, and trams. The Service & Component segment provides revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, modernization and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The Signalling segment develops and distributes various signalling solutions for vehicles and infrastructures. This segment offers various solutions in the areas of train protection, communication-based train control for driverless operation, automatic train operation, driving assistance systems, interlocking technologies, and other trackside components for automatic train protection system, as well as services for the planning and implementation of security systems. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.
Newag SA (Ticker: NWG.WA)
Industry group: Industrial Engineering
Industry: Railroads
Location: Nowy Sacz, Poland
Business summary: Newag S.A. engages in the production and sale of railway locomotives and rolling stocks in Poland. The company offers electric and diesel multiple units, electric and diesel locomotives, and dual-drive multiple units; and electric, diesel, and dual-drive traction units. It is also involved in the real estate rental and management activities; leasing of rolling stock and controlling; financing activities; repair and maintenance of machinery and other transport equipment; mechanical processing of metal elements; and provision of rolling stock and control systems repair and modernization services. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Nowy Sacz, Poland.
Talgo SA (Ticker: TLGO.MC)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Madrid, Spain
Business summary: Talgo, S.A. engages in design, manufacture, and maintenance of railway and auxiliary machinery for the maintenance of railway systems rolling stock worldwide. The company offers high speed, intercity, commuter and regional, and locomotive railway products. It is also involved in the manufacture, delivery, and maintenance of commercialized rolling stock, auxiliary and other, machines, such as pit lathes, measuring equipment, and shunting cars, as well as rolling stock renovations/remodelling. Talgo, S.A. was formerly known as Pegaso Rail International, S.A. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (Ticker: CP)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Foreign: 7550 Ogden Dale Road S.E., Calgary, AB, Canada, T2C 4X9
Business summary: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Canadian National Railway Co (Ticker: CNI)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Foreign: 935 de La Gauchetiere Street West, Montreal, QC, Canada, H3B 2M9
Business summary: Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Personligt synes jeg historiske totalafkast kan være en god lille rettesnor for hvidt der måske kan være tale om et aktionærvenligt kvalitetsselskab eller ej inden man graver dybere ned i casen. Thorleif Jackson kaldte denne simple metric den ultimative metric kort før sin død ved en tale til medlemmer af Dansk Aktionærforening.
Historisk performance eller mangel på samme er f.eks. grunden til jeg har holdt mig væk fra aktier som Bavarian Nordic. Kursudviklingen tyder på der må have været mange skuffelser undervejs hvor selskabet ikke har levet op til forventningerne.
Jeg synes, at polske Newag SA opfylder de fleste krav til en virksomhed af høj kvalitet, når man ser på forskellige metrics (ROCE er f.eks. 33,1 % ), men jeg aner ikke hvor den kan handles eller hvor likvid aktien er, eller om den overhovedet lever op til dine krav om præcis hvilken branche den skal være placeret i.
Talgo SA synes jeg omvendt tegner til at være et selskab af ringe kvalitet, ROCE, Return on Equity og Operating Margin er alle negative.
Nedenfor vises Annualized Total Return 10 år CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for 10 selskaber eksponeret mod jernbaneindustrien.
Newag SA: 17,54 %
UNP: 12,04 %
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd: 10,76%
CAF: 8,67 %
Canadian National Railway Co: 7,87 %
Trinity Industries Inc: 7,06 %
Vossloh: 4,13 %
Greenbrier Companies Inc: 3,39 %
Alstom: 2,34 %
Talgo SA: -7,33 %
Stadler Rail AG (Ticker: SRAIL.SW)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Bussnang, Switzerland
Business summary: Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Rolling Stock; Service & Components; and Signalling. The Rolling Stock segment manufactures various rail vehicles comprising high-speed, intercity, regional trains, city transport, locomotives, and tailor made, as well as passenger coaches, light rails, and trams. The Service & Component segment provides revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, modernization and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies. The Signalling segment develops and distributes various signalling solutions for vehicles and infrastructures. This segment offers various solutions in the areas of train protection, communication-based train control for driverless operation, automatic train operation, driving assistance systems, interlocking technologies, and other trackside components for automatic train protection system, as well as services for the planning and implementation of security systems. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.
Newag SA (Ticker: NWG.WA)
Industry group: Industrial Engineering
Industry: Railroads
Location: Nowy Sacz, Poland
Business summary: Newag S.A. engages in the production and sale of railway locomotives and rolling stocks in Poland. The company offers electric and diesel multiple units, electric and diesel locomotives, and dual-drive multiple units; and electric, diesel, and dual-drive traction units. It is also involved in the real estate rental and management activities; leasing of rolling stock and controlling; financing activities; repair and maintenance of machinery and other transport equipment; mechanical processing of metal elements; and provision of rolling stock and control systems repair and modernization services. The company was founded in 1876 and is based in Nowy Sacz, Poland.
Talgo SA (Ticker: TLGO.MC)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Madrid, Spain
Business summary: Talgo, S.A. engages in design, manufacture, and maintenance of railway and auxiliary machinery for the maintenance of railway systems rolling stock worldwide. The company offers high speed, intercity, commuter and regional, and locomotive railway products. It is also involved in the manufacture, delivery, and maintenance of commercialized rolling stock, auxiliary and other, machines, such as pit lathes, measuring equipment, and shunting cars, as well as rolling stock renovations/remodelling. Talgo, S.A. was formerly known as Pegaso Rail International, S.A. The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (Ticker: CP)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Foreign: 7550 Ogden Dale Road S.E., Calgary, AB, Canada, T2C 4X9
Business summary: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Canadian National Railway Co (Ticker: CNI)
Industry group: Industrial Transportation
Industry: Railroads
Location: Foreign: 935 de La Gauchetiere Street West, Montreal, QC, Canada, H3B 2M9
Business summary: Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Personligt synes jeg historiske totalafkast kan være en god lille rettesnor for hvidt der måske kan være tale om et aktionærvenligt kvalitetsselskab eller ej inden man graver dybere ned i casen. Thorleif Jackson kaldte denne simple metric den ultimative metric kort før sin død ved en tale til medlemmer af Dansk Aktionærforening.
Historisk performance eller mangel på samme er f.eks. grunden til jeg har holdt mig væk fra aktier som Bavarian Nordic. Kursudviklingen tyder på der må have været mange skuffelser undervejs hvor selskabet ikke har levet op til forventningerne.
Jeg synes, at polske Newag SA opfylder de fleste krav til en virksomhed af høj kvalitet, når man ser på forskellige metrics (ROCE er f.eks. 33,1 % ), men jeg aner ikke hvor den kan handles eller hvor likvid aktien er, eller om den overhovedet lever op til dine krav om præcis hvilken branche den skal være placeret i.
Talgo SA synes jeg omvendt tegner til at være et selskab af ringe kvalitet, ROCE, Return on Equity og Operating Margin er alle negative.
Nedenfor vises Annualized Total Return 10 år CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for 10 selskaber eksponeret mod jernbaneindustrien.
Newag SA: 17,54 %
UNP: 12,04 %
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd: 10,76%
CAF: 8,67 %
Canadian National Railway Co: 7,87 %
Trinity Industries Inc: 7,06 %
Vossloh: 4,13 %
Greenbrier Companies Inc: 3,39 %
Alstom: 2,34 %
Talgo SA: -7,33 %
