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Inside the Mind of the Turtles
by Curtis Faith
Super Trader
by Van Tharp
20 Most Common Trading
Mistakes
by Kel Butcher
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Quarter-End, Correction Risk High
By Colin Twiggs
September 26, 1:00 a.m. ET (3:00 p.m. AET)
These extracts from my trading diary are for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as investment or trading advice. Full terms and conditions can be found at Terms of Use.
We are approaching the end of the third quarter, with risk of a secondary correction elevated over the next three weeks. The Dow is also approaching a key resistance level at 10000, further increasing selling pressure. If the market does not correct soon, we run the risk of a runaway trend — and the start of another dangerous bubble.
Commodities
The Baltic Dry Index broke through support at 2300/2400, signaling a test of the lower channel border. The decline indicates that demand for bulk commodity shipping is slowing: a negative outlook for resources stocks. Failure of primary support at 1500 would signal reversal to a primary down-trend — and a clear warning of a W-shaped recession rather than the V-bottom we are all hoping for.
The RJ/CRB Commodities Index found support at 250, indicated by Thursday's long tail, but failed to follow through, with a rise above the high of 256, on Friday. Recovery above 260 would indicate the start of a new primary advance, while decline below 247 would warn that the correction has not ended. In the long term, breakout above 269/270 would signal a primary advance with a target of 300*; failure of support at 230, however, would indicate reversal to a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 266 + ( 266 - 232 ) = 300
USA
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Dow is retracing from the key resistance level at 10000. Breakout below the lower trend channel would warn of a secondary correction to test support at 8800/9000. Bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) at this stage signals no more than short-term retracement, but reversal below zero would indicate a secondary correction. In the long term, breakout above 10000 would offer a target of 12000*, while reversal below 8000 would signal a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 - 8000 ) = 12000
Read More....
S&P 500 Retreats
Canada: TSX Retreats
Nasdaq 100: Retreats
UK: FTSE 100 Retreats
India: Sensex Advances
Japan: Nikkei 225 Tests Support
Germany: Dax Retreats
China: Shanghai Correction
Australia: ASX Approaches 5000
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29/9 2009 10:43 lessismore 118969 Hermed link med kurver. Mvh
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