verdens største semi foundry i taiwan planlægger at øge investeringerne i 2010 med ca 80% efter et boom i de sidste kvartaler i 2009 og en forventet sekventiel vækst i 2010 1q modsat den normale sæsonmæssige svaghed
TSMC says capex to reach US$4.8 billion in 2010
29 January 2010]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced that its projected capex for 2010 will top US$4.8 billion, an increase of 79.7% from US$2.671 billion spent in 2009. Its previous record capex was US$3.3 billion allocated for 2000.
TSMC's capex goal for 2010 has also beat market watchers' estimates of US$4-4.5 billion. Company CFO Lora Ho indicated 94% of the budget will be used to expand advanced technology capacity, 3% for mainstream processes and the remainder for new business investment. Ho also revealed TSMC's plans to ramp its overall capacity at 12-inch (300mm) wafer fabs by 34% in 2010.
TSMC is scheduled to kick off volume production of 28nm products in mid-2010, and more than 20 customers have already placed orders on the process node, according to the company. It expects 28nm to bring in a solid contribution to its 2011 financial results.
TSMC also disclosed that gross margin contributed by its 40nm process is expected to reach the company's overall level at the end of 2010. TSMC posted a 43.7% gross margin for 2009, compared to 42.5% for 2008 and 44.1% for 2007.
TSMC has benefited from the chip industry's faster-than-expected rebound in line with a general economic recovery. Its revenues and net profits for full-year 2009 slid 11.2% and 11%, respectively, which show improvement from on-year drops of 35.2% and 54.6% in the first half of 2009.
In 2001 when the chip industry experienced a more than 30% decline, TSMC saw revenues and net profits drop 24.3% and 77.8%, respectively. It made a quick recovery in the first half of 2002, when it enjoyed on-year growth of 21.5% in revenues and 82% in profits.
TSMC chairman and CEO Morris Chang remarked that the global wafer foundry market is set to grow 29% in 2010, with the growth outpacing the overall chip sector's 18% increase. As the world's top pure-play foundry, TSMC expects its growth to outperform the industry average this year, Chang said.
Chang forecast that TSMC's 2010 revenues will expand more than 30% to NT$400 billion (US$12.5 billion), beating its 2008 record of NT$333.16 billion.
Chang also provided TSMC's estimates for worldwide PC, handset and consumer electronics shipments, which will see growth of 14%, 12% and 7% respectively in 2010.
TSMC says capex to reach US$4.8 billion in 2010
29 January 2010]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced that its projected capex for 2010 will top US$4.8 billion, an increase of 79.7% from US$2.671 billion spent in 2009. Its previous record capex was US$3.3 billion allocated for 2000.
TSMC's capex goal for 2010 has also beat market watchers' estimates of US$4-4.5 billion. Company CFO Lora Ho indicated 94% of the budget will be used to expand advanced technology capacity, 3% for mainstream processes and the remainder for new business investment. Ho also revealed TSMC's plans to ramp its overall capacity at 12-inch (300mm) wafer fabs by 34% in 2010.
TSMC is scheduled to kick off volume production of 28nm products in mid-2010, and more than 20 customers have already placed orders on the process node, according to the company. It expects 28nm to bring in a solid contribution to its 2011 financial results.
TSMC also disclosed that gross margin contributed by its 40nm process is expected to reach the company's overall level at the end of 2010. TSMC posted a 43.7% gross margin for 2009, compared to 42.5% for 2008 and 44.1% for 2007.
TSMC has benefited from the chip industry's faster-than-expected rebound in line with a general economic recovery. Its revenues and net profits for full-year 2009 slid 11.2% and 11%, respectively, which show improvement from on-year drops of 35.2% and 54.6% in the first half of 2009.
In 2001 when the chip industry experienced a more than 30% decline, TSMC saw revenues and net profits drop 24.3% and 77.8%, respectively. It made a quick recovery in the first half of 2002, when it enjoyed on-year growth of 21.5% in revenues and 82% in profits.
TSMC chairman and CEO Morris Chang remarked that the global wafer foundry market is set to grow 29% in 2010, with the growth outpacing the overall chip sector's 18% increase. As the world's top pure-play foundry, TSMC expects its growth to outperform the industry average this year, Chang said.
Chang forecast that TSMC's 2010 revenues will expand more than 30% to NT$400 billion (US$12.5 billion), beating its 2008 record of NT$333.16 billion.
Chang also provided TSMC's estimates for worldwide PC, handset and consumer electronics shipments, which will see growth of 14%, 12% and 7% respectively in 2010.
30/1 2010 15:11 le 0
25220 og det boomer hos samsung - semi, fladskærme/tv, mobiltelefoner mm
Samsung 2009 profits jump, upbeat on memory and TV outlook
29 January 2010]
Samsung Electronics, the world's top memory and LCD panel maker, has announced net income for 2009 soared 75% to 9.65 trillion won (US$8 billion) while revenues grew 23% to 89.77 trillion won. Samsung said a replacement cycle for PCs will buoy demand for DRAM chips throughout 2010, and the TV panel business is also another driver for its revenues this year.
Samsung swung to net profits of 3.05 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to net losses of 20 billion won in fourth-quarter 2008 when its semiconductor and LCD businesses both suffered operating losses.
Samsung's semiconductor business (memory and system LSI) generated operating profits of 1.56 trillion won in the fourth quarter, up 44% sequentially. Profits for all of 2009 amounted to 2.15 trillion won, compared to 0.13 trillion won a year ago.
Revenues from the chip division totaled 21.79 trillion won in 2009, up 23% compared to 17.66 trillion won in 2008. For the memory segment, Samsung saw sales grow 18.9% to 13.77 trillion won last year.
LCD sales increased 10.9% to 20.04 trillion won in 2009, but operating profits slid 40% to 1.23 trillion won. Samsung believes TVs will generate a major increase in panel demand in 2010, driven by demand in China, major sporting events as well as restored consumer confidence on a general economic recovery.
Looking into 2010, Samsung said DRAM demand will be spurred by better-than-expected PC shipments in the first quarter despite seasonality. The chip vendor has moved to produce DDR3 chips using 40nm-class process technology for better cost efficiency.
Samsung also expects stronger-than-expected NAND flash sales during first-quarter 2010, as supply is still limited amid growing demand for smartphones and other new applications.
In the LCD panel market, demand for TVs is likely to grow robustly on quarter in first-quarter 2010 due to Lunar New Year celebrations, according to Samsung.
Samsung 2009 profits jump, upbeat on memory and TV outlook
29 January 2010]
Samsung Electronics, the world's top memory and LCD panel maker, has announced net income for 2009 soared 75% to 9.65 trillion won (US$8 billion) while revenues grew 23% to 89.77 trillion won. Samsung said a replacement cycle for PCs will buoy demand for DRAM chips throughout 2010, and the TV panel business is also another driver for its revenues this year.
Samsung swung to net profits of 3.05 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2009, compared to net losses of 20 billion won in fourth-quarter 2008 when its semiconductor and LCD businesses both suffered operating losses.
Samsung's semiconductor business (memory and system LSI) generated operating profits of 1.56 trillion won in the fourth quarter, up 44% sequentially. Profits for all of 2009 amounted to 2.15 trillion won, compared to 0.13 trillion won a year ago.
Revenues from the chip division totaled 21.79 trillion won in 2009, up 23% compared to 17.66 trillion won in 2008. For the memory segment, Samsung saw sales grow 18.9% to 13.77 trillion won last year.
LCD sales increased 10.9% to 20.04 trillion won in 2009, but operating profits slid 40% to 1.23 trillion won. Samsung believes TVs will generate a major increase in panel demand in 2010, driven by demand in China, major sporting events as well as restored consumer confidence on a general economic recovery.
Looking into 2010, Samsung said DRAM demand will be spurred by better-than-expected PC shipments in the first quarter despite seasonality. The chip vendor has moved to produce DDR3 chips using 40nm-class process technology for better cost efficiency.
Samsung also expects stronger-than-expected NAND flash sales during first-quarter 2010, as supply is still limited amid growing demand for smartphones and other new applications.
In the LCD panel market, demand for TVs is likely to grow robustly on quarter in first-quarter 2010 due to Lunar New Year celebrations, according to Samsung.
30/1 2010 15:17 le 025221 også en stigning i investeringerne på ca 64% hos en af verdens største producenter af fladskærme efter et par boom kvartaler i andet halvår af 2009
producenter af udstyr er bl.a. svenske micronics laser og tyske singulus, som jeg begge har aktier i
AUO increases capex to NT$100 billion in 2010
29 January 2010]
AU Optronics (AUO) has increased its capex by 64% to NT$100 billion (US$3.13 billion) for 2010, up from NT$61 billion in 2009.
Up to 85-90% of the capex will mainly go towards expanding 7.5G and 8.5G capacities, with the remaining 10-15% allocated for its solar energy business, according to the company.
AUO is continuing to expand the capacity at its second 7.5G plant, and the overall monthly 7.5G capacity will increase to 130,000 substrates by the end of June 2010, up from 100,000 currently, it said. AUO's second 8.5G plant will start equipment installation in the third quarter and start production in the first quarter of 2011 with an initial monthly capacity of 45,000-50,000 substrates.
LJ Chen, president and CEO of AUO, told an investors conference Thursday (January 28) that global LCD panel area capacity will increase 20-21% in 2010, and AUO expects its panel area capacity to increase 17-18% this year.
Commenting on competition from Chimei Innolux Corporation, Chen said AUO is confident that its technologies for small- to medium-size panels and capacity at 6G and larger plants will provide the advantage to compete against Chimei Innolux.
Chen noted that AUO's 6G and above capacity is 10% higher than that of Chimei Innolux. Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) and Innolux Display are expected to merge April 1 to form Chimei Innolux, according to the companies' latest announcement.
AUO posted a net loss of NT$7.85 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009 as it recognized fines of NT$10 billion it expected to receive from anti-trust lawsuits in the US and Europe, the company explained.
producenter af udstyr er bl.a. svenske micronics laser og tyske singulus, som jeg begge har aktier i
AUO increases capex to NT$100 billion in 2010
29 January 2010]
AU Optronics (AUO) has increased its capex by 64% to NT$100 billion (US$3.13 billion) for 2010, up from NT$61 billion in 2009.
Up to 85-90% of the capex will mainly go towards expanding 7.5G and 8.5G capacities, with the remaining 10-15% allocated for its solar energy business, according to the company.
AUO is continuing to expand the capacity at its second 7.5G plant, and the overall monthly 7.5G capacity will increase to 130,000 substrates by the end of June 2010, up from 100,000 currently, it said. AUO's second 8.5G plant will start equipment installation in the third quarter and start production in the first quarter of 2011 with an initial monthly capacity of 45,000-50,000 substrates.
LJ Chen, president and CEO of AUO, told an investors conference Thursday (January 28) that global LCD panel area capacity will increase 20-21% in 2010, and AUO expects its panel area capacity to increase 17-18% this year.
Commenting on competition from Chimei Innolux Corporation, Chen said AUO is confident that its technologies for small- to medium-size panels and capacity at 6G and larger plants will provide the advantage to compete against Chimei Innolux.
Chen noted that AUO's 6G and above capacity is 10% higher than that of Chimei Innolux. Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) and Innolux Display are expected to merge April 1 to form Chimei Innolux, according to the companies' latest announcement.
AUO posted a net loss of NT$7.85 billion for the fourth quarter of 2009 as it recognized fines of NT$10 billion it expected to receive from anti-trust lawsuits in the US and Europe, the company explained.
30/1 2010 17:32 le 025224 semi eq - lam research
Thank you, Ernie and good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining our call.
Well, what a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, I was describing
an environment in the semiconductor equipment industry as a Category 5 hurricane
and expressing concerns that we may be looking at a downturn that could last for
six to eight quarters. I'm certainly pleased to have been excessively
pessimistic on that concern. And as Ernie just articulated it's nice that we
ended 2009 on a much higher note than what was expected at the beginning of what
we knew would be a tough year.
Relative to our shipment output in June of 2009, December represented an
increase in total shipment output of over 100% in only six months. A demand
pattern much stronger in terms of speed and size than we had anticipated. We are
pleased that our flexible operations business model has once again proven its
ability to respond to rapid increases in customer demand through the great work
of our employees and suppliers worldwide
Thank you, Ernie and good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining our call.
Well, what a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, I was describing
an environment in the semiconductor equipment industry as a Category 5 hurricane
and expressing concerns that we may be looking at a downturn that could last for
six to eight quarters. I'm certainly pleased to have been excessively
pessimistic on that concern. And as Ernie just articulated it's nice that we
ended 2009 on a much higher note than what was expected at the beginning of what
we knew would be a tough year.
Relative to our shipment output in June of 2009, December represented an
increase in total shipment output of over 100% in only six months. A demand
pattern much stronger in terms of speed and size than we had anticipated. We are
pleased that our flexible operations business model has once again proven its
ability to respond to rapid increases in customer demand through the great work
of our employees and suppliers worldwide
1/2 2010 05:44 le 025265 Elpida, TSMC strong in Q3 as small rivals struggle
Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:46am ESTStocks
Elpida Memory.Inc.
6665.T
¥1,512
-89.00-5.56%4:15am UTC+0100
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
2330.TW
NT$60.00
-1.50-2.44%4:16am UTC+0100
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930.KS
?768,000.00
-16,000.00-2.04%4:16am UTC+0100
* Elpida sees flat Q4 output, to hike capex 67 pct in 09/10
* Elpida puts investment in TIMC on hold
* TSMC profit biggest in 2 yrs, eyes doubled capex
* NEC, Advantest narrow Q3 net loss, orders rising (Recasts; adds analyst comment)
By Mayumi Negishi
TOKYO Jan 28 (Reuters) - Chipmakers Elpida Memory Inc (6665.T) and TSMC (2330.TW) posted strong third-quarter results on Thursday amid a fragile industry recovery in which smaller firms are struggling and fears are circulating of a supply glut.
Japanese DRAM maker Elpida said it would rein in output after it made its biggest net profit in three years as larger rivals Samsung Electronics Co (005930.KS) and Hynix Semiconductor Inc (000660.KS) are surging ahead in their investments to try and widen their leads.
Elpida, which is fighting Micron Technology (MU.O) to secure its place as the world's No.3 DRAM maker, is wary of a price slide and hopes the current demand for more powerful PC and cellphone chips will last long enough to allow it to catch up, analysts said.
Some analysts have said there could be a supply glut in the second half of the year as the strongest players hike output, with their investments catapulting equipment supplier Tokyo Electron's (8035.T) 2009/2010 outlook above expectations. [ID:nTOE60Q08E]
The fruits of the recovery in the chip sector are coming to the biggest players first and analysts have warned that a rise in spending by the giants could mean a supply glut later in the year before the smaller players can regain their footing.
Taiwan's TSMC, the world's top contract chipmaker, said it expected its capital spending this year to reach a record, while much smaller NEC Corp's (6701.T) chip unit is cutting costs as it waits for a promising rise in orders to translate into sales. [ID:nTOE60O05J]
Chip-tester supplier Advantest Corp (6857.T) is also waiting as its order backlog balloons. New orders are expected to rise 30 percent in the year to March.
Elpida, which received an injection of public money last year, said it would keep its output flat for the January-March quarter. It said it would wait until the year starting in April to lift its capital expenditures by two-thirds to 100 billion yen -- still short of its spending prior to 2008.
Elpida cannot afford another tumble in prices, analysts said.
"Elpida has half a year to catch up to Samsung and Hynix" in technology investment, said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management. "It's hoping this respite will last."
Following a prolonged slump that forced the failures of chip makers Qimonda (QMNDQ.PK) and Spansion (SPSNQ.PK), prices of DRAM, used most commonly in PCs, have nearly tripled over the past year.
Analysts have warned that a return to profit could not only fuel price falls but also put the brakes on much-needed consolidation in the sector.
Back in the black after nine quarters, Elpida said it had put on hold its plans to invest in Taiwan's state-backed Taiwan Innovation Memory Co (TIMC) and would wait to see if the Taiwan government was investing in the firm, set up to bail out ailing chip makers.
"It's the same story," said Fumiaki Sato, representative director of consultancy Sangyo Sosei Advisory Inc. "As soon as the outlook gets better, impetus to join hands shrivels up."
FINGERS CROSSED
TSMC doubled its net profit from a year ago to T$32.67 billion ($102 million) in the October-December period, while Elpida returned to a profit earning 21.1 billion yen, up from a loss of 72.3 billion yen.
For graphics on TSMC and Elpida's earnings, click here here here
Elpida, which analysts expect to report its third year in the red, is scrambling to catch up to Samsung and Hynix by adopting advanced 40-nanometre chips by year-end at Rexchip, its joint venture with Taiwan's Powerchip.
"We expect the supply shortage to continue this year," said Elpida Chief Financial Yasuo Shirai at a news conference, adding that while it was hard to read DRAM prices, they were likely to remain stable throughout the year to March 2011.
Elpida's shares have jumped more than 15 percent so far this year, outperforming a 2 percent rise in the Tokyo index of electrical machinery stocks .IELEC.T.
Japan's Advantest, which supplies testers to chip makers such as Intel (INTC.O) and Samsung, narrowed its losses to a quarterly net loss of 5.7 billion yen from a loss of 7.8 billion yen the previous year.
But as chipmakers become selective about their investments, Advantest now expects to see an annual net loss of 13.5 billion yen, missing a market consensus for a loss of 7.2 billion yen by 16 analysts, despite a 30 percent rise in orders.
NEC, which owns 65 percent of Japanese system chip maker NEC Electronics Corp (6723.T), said its quarterly net loss narrowed to 9.6 billion yen from 130.8 billion yen in the previous year, thanks to cost cuts. It kept its full-year outlook above market consensus. ($1=90.34 Yen) (Additional reporting by Baker Li in Taipei; editing by Karen Foster)
Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:46am ESTStocks
Elpida Memory.Inc.
6665.T
¥1,512
-89.00-5.56%4:15am UTC+0100
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.
2330.TW
NT$60.00
-1.50-2.44%4:16am UTC+0100
Samsung Electronics Co Ltd
005930.KS
?768,000.00
-16,000.00-2.04%4:16am UTC+0100
* Elpida sees flat Q4 output, to hike capex 67 pct in 09/10
* Elpida puts investment in TIMC on hold
* TSMC profit biggest in 2 yrs, eyes doubled capex
* NEC, Advantest narrow Q3 net loss, orders rising (Recasts; adds analyst comment)
By Mayumi Negishi
TOKYO Jan 28 (Reuters) - Chipmakers Elpida Memory Inc (6665.T) and TSMC (2330.TW) posted strong third-quarter results on Thursday amid a fragile industry recovery in which smaller firms are struggling and fears are circulating of a supply glut.
Japanese DRAM maker Elpida said it would rein in output after it made its biggest net profit in three years as larger rivals Samsung Electronics Co (005930.KS) and Hynix Semiconductor Inc (000660.KS) are surging ahead in their investments to try and widen their leads.
Elpida, which is fighting Micron Technology (MU.O) to secure its place as the world's No.3 DRAM maker, is wary of a price slide and hopes the current demand for more powerful PC and cellphone chips will last long enough to allow it to catch up, analysts said.
Some analysts have said there could be a supply glut in the second half of the year as the strongest players hike output, with their investments catapulting equipment supplier Tokyo Electron's (8035.T) 2009/2010 outlook above expectations. [ID:nTOE60Q08E]
The fruits of the recovery in the chip sector are coming to the biggest players first and analysts have warned that a rise in spending by the giants could mean a supply glut later in the year before the smaller players can regain their footing.
Taiwan's TSMC, the world's top contract chipmaker, said it expected its capital spending this year to reach a record, while much smaller NEC Corp's (6701.T) chip unit is cutting costs as it waits for a promising rise in orders to translate into sales. [ID:nTOE60O05J]
Chip-tester supplier Advantest Corp (6857.T) is also waiting as its order backlog balloons. New orders are expected to rise 30 percent in the year to March.
Elpida, which received an injection of public money last year, said it would keep its output flat for the January-March quarter. It said it would wait until the year starting in April to lift its capital expenditures by two-thirds to 100 billion yen -- still short of its spending prior to 2008.
Elpida cannot afford another tumble in prices, analysts said.
"Elpida has half a year to catch up to Samsung and Hynix" in technology investment, said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management. "It's hoping this respite will last."
Following a prolonged slump that forced the failures of chip makers Qimonda (QMNDQ.PK) and Spansion (SPSNQ.PK), prices of DRAM, used most commonly in PCs, have nearly tripled over the past year.
Analysts have warned that a return to profit could not only fuel price falls but also put the brakes on much-needed consolidation in the sector.
Back in the black after nine quarters, Elpida said it had put on hold its plans to invest in Taiwan's state-backed Taiwan Innovation Memory Co (TIMC) and would wait to see if the Taiwan government was investing in the firm, set up to bail out ailing chip makers.
"It's the same story," said Fumiaki Sato, representative director of consultancy Sangyo Sosei Advisory Inc. "As soon as the outlook gets better, impetus to join hands shrivels up."
FINGERS CROSSED
TSMC doubled its net profit from a year ago to T$32.67 billion ($102 million) in the October-December period, while Elpida returned to a profit earning 21.1 billion yen, up from a loss of 72.3 billion yen.
For graphics on TSMC and Elpida's earnings, click here here here
Elpida, which analysts expect to report its third year in the red, is scrambling to catch up to Samsung and Hynix by adopting advanced 40-nanometre chips by year-end at Rexchip, its joint venture with Taiwan's Powerchip.
"We expect the supply shortage to continue this year," said Elpida Chief Financial Yasuo Shirai at a news conference, adding that while it was hard to read DRAM prices, they were likely to remain stable throughout the year to March 2011.
Elpida's shares have jumped more than 15 percent so far this year, outperforming a 2 percent rise in the Tokyo index of electrical machinery stocks .IELEC.T.
Japan's Advantest, which supplies testers to chip makers such as Intel (INTC.O) and Samsung, narrowed its losses to a quarterly net loss of 5.7 billion yen from a loss of 7.8 billion yen the previous year.
But as chipmakers become selective about their investments, Advantest now expects to see an annual net loss of 13.5 billion yen, missing a market consensus for a loss of 7.2 billion yen by 16 analysts, despite a 30 percent rise in orders.
NEC, which owns 65 percent of Japanese system chip maker NEC Electronics Corp (6723.T), said its quarterly net loss narrowed to 9.6 billion yen from 130.8 billion yen in the previous year, thanks to cost cuts. It kept its full-year outlook above market consensus. ($1=90.34 Yen) (Additional reporting by Baker Li in Taipei; editing by Karen Foster)
1/2 2010 06:05 le 025267 Chip-Equipment Market: Uncertain 2010
de er altid forvirrende og usikre de analytikere og journalister
faktum er at niveauet for investeringerne lige nu i sektoren er en stigning på 100% y-y hvis niveuet fortsætter gennem hele 2010 og derfor er der plads til langsommere vækst og direkte nedgang i andet halvår uden at det svækker styrken i opgangen og boomet lige nu
og derfor skal aktierne i sektoren meget længere op uanset aktiemarkedet som helhed
By Robert Castellano 01/29/10 - 08:45 AM EST
2 CommentsLoading Comments...
Add CommentStock quotes in this article: INTC , TSM , AMD , MU , GOOG , QCOM , LRCX NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I pointed out last week that semiconductor manufacturers need to spend in order for the equipment manufacturers to exhibit any real recovery, something that has eluded the sector as a whole since 2001.
More on INTC
Apple iPad Winners and LosersStock Wrap: The Real Story, January 29Stocks End January in Negative TerritoryMarket Activity
Micron Technology Inc| MU DOWNAdvanced Micro Devices Incorporated| AMD DOWNLam Research Corporation| LRCX DOWNWithin the past month, many experts have announced extraordinary gains to be made in the semiconductor equipment market in 2010. In recent weeks, trade group SEMI and market research firm Gartner/Dataquest have issued forecasts calling for the chip-equipment market to grow in excess of 50% in 2010, following a decrease of nearly 50% in 2009. iSuppli last week called for 46% growth.
Part of the basis for these forecasts certainly must have come from announcements of large planned increases in capital expenditures, particularly among the memory manufacturers.
I noted that according to IC Insights, the $1 billion capex spenders include the following firms in 2010: Samsung ($6 billion); Intel(INTC Quote) ($5.3 billion); Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM Quote) ($3 billion); Hynix ($2 billion); Toshiba ($1.95 billion); GlobalFoundries, a partnership that includes Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote) ($1.9 billion); Micron(MU Quote) ($1.3 billion), Nanya ($1.1 billion) and Elpida ($1 billion).
It is important to realize that capex is dynamic. Some companies will alter plans and spend less or more depending on conditions. Some will spend all their money in a short amount of time rather than spreading it evenly throughout the calendar year.
I also noted in a previous article that these forecasts beg the question : How will the equipment market grow 50+% in 2010 with no new fabs and no new capacity additions when it dropped nearly 50% in 2009 with no new fabs and no new capacity additions? This leads to a follow-up question: Will technology purchases alone sustain 50% growth?
Reaching growth of more than 50% will result in nearly $20 billion in wafer fab equipment purchases for technology improvements, $7 billion more than in 2009 for a net zero growth in new fabs built.
More on INTC
Apple iPad Winners and LosersStock Wrap: The Real Story, January 29Stocks End January in Negative TerritoryMarket Activity
Micron Technology Inc| MU DOWNAdvanced Micro Devices Incorporated| AMD DOWNLam Research Corporation| LRCX DOWNSince I've been in the business of analyzing the semiconductor equipment market since 1983, I value statements made by respected executives in leading equipment companies, because after all they're supposed to eat, sleep, and drink their business while keeping their ears to the ground and their fingers on the pulse.
Below are quotes from Steve Newberry, president and CEO of Lam Research(LRCX Quote):
"As we look to the broader industry trends for 2010, we expect the recent strength in customer demand for new systems to continue, at least in respect to the first half of the year. We estimate that in 2009, there was wafer fabrication equipment spending of approximately $13 billion, and we expect at this moment in time that the market for equipment purchases in 2010 will be somewhere in the range of $20 billion to $22 billion, likely up 55% to 70% over 2009."
Newberry's forecast of 55% to 70% may have been influenced by the forecasts from the aforementioned experts. But the real guts and glory come from the statement a little further in Lam Research's earnings conference call:
"OK. Well, no disrespect intended, but what I would say, whenever I talk about what is going to happen, it's not what is going to happen, it's always predicated with based on what the customers are telling us today, based on what they are planning in terms of orders and shipments, this is what it looks like. And clearly, with the lead times as short as they are, I wouldn't believe anything anybody says because nobody knows. All you're really getting from me or from anybody else is what the current snapshot in time is, in terms of what the customers are saying they want to do, and what they're currently doing in this quarter.
"And so relative to what's actually going to happen in the second half of 2010, I don't know. I just know that if you take the current level of our shipment output on a systems basis, if we continue to ship at that rate, then the industry would have to spend about $28 billion in wafer fab equipment. And I think that that's less likely to be what they do. And so, therefore, when I look at what they're telling me they're planning on doing, they're telling me they're planning on taking less shipments in the second half than they are planning to take in the first half. Whether that's actually how it plays out, I don't know."
Wow. An industry expert, a president and CEO of leading equipment company, and he doesn't know. And his statement, " I wouldn't believe anything anybody says because nobody knows" is the master stroke that sums up the industry.
So, if he doesn't know, and doesn't think anyone else does, what's the point of advertising forecasts that can be inferred as wrong? Take a look at Qualcomm(QCOM Quote) and Motorola(MOT Quote), with their forecasts for growth in the cell phone sector. I bet they don't believe the forecast either.
de er altid forvirrende og usikre de analytikere og journalister
faktum er at niveauet for investeringerne lige nu i sektoren er en stigning på 100% y-y hvis niveuet fortsætter gennem hele 2010 og derfor er der plads til langsommere vækst og direkte nedgang i andet halvår uden at det svækker styrken i opgangen og boomet lige nu
og derfor skal aktierne i sektoren meget længere op uanset aktiemarkedet som helhed
By Robert Castellano 01/29/10 - 08:45 AM EST
2 CommentsLoading Comments...
Add CommentStock quotes in this article: INTC , TSM , AMD , MU , GOOG , QCOM , LRCX NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- I pointed out last week that semiconductor manufacturers need to spend in order for the equipment manufacturers to exhibit any real recovery, something that has eluded the sector as a whole since 2001.
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Micron Technology Inc| MU DOWNAdvanced Micro Devices Incorporated| AMD DOWNLam Research Corporation| LRCX DOWNWithin the past month, many experts have announced extraordinary gains to be made in the semiconductor equipment market in 2010. In recent weeks, trade group SEMI and market research firm Gartner/Dataquest have issued forecasts calling for the chip-equipment market to grow in excess of 50% in 2010, following a decrease of nearly 50% in 2009. iSuppli last week called for 46% growth.
Part of the basis for these forecasts certainly must have come from announcements of large planned increases in capital expenditures, particularly among the memory manufacturers.
I noted that according to IC Insights, the $1 billion capex spenders include the following firms in 2010: Samsung ($6 billion); Intel(INTC Quote) ($5.3 billion); Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM Quote) ($3 billion); Hynix ($2 billion); Toshiba ($1.95 billion); GlobalFoundries, a partnership that includes Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Quote) ($1.9 billion); Micron(MU Quote) ($1.3 billion), Nanya ($1.1 billion) and Elpida ($1 billion).
It is important to realize that capex is dynamic. Some companies will alter plans and spend less or more depending on conditions. Some will spend all their money in a short amount of time rather than spreading it evenly throughout the calendar year.
I also noted in a previous article that these forecasts beg the question : How will the equipment market grow 50+% in 2010 with no new fabs and no new capacity additions when it dropped nearly 50% in 2009 with no new fabs and no new capacity additions? This leads to a follow-up question: Will technology purchases alone sustain 50% growth?
Reaching growth of more than 50% will result in nearly $20 billion in wafer fab equipment purchases for technology improvements, $7 billion more than in 2009 for a net zero growth in new fabs built.
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Micron Technology Inc| MU DOWNAdvanced Micro Devices Incorporated| AMD DOWNLam Research Corporation| LRCX DOWNSince I've been in the business of analyzing the semiconductor equipment market since 1983, I value statements made by respected executives in leading equipment companies, because after all they're supposed to eat, sleep, and drink their business while keeping their ears to the ground and their fingers on the pulse.
Below are quotes from Steve Newberry, president and CEO of Lam Research(LRCX Quote):
"As we look to the broader industry trends for 2010, we expect the recent strength in customer demand for new systems to continue, at least in respect to the first half of the year. We estimate that in 2009, there was wafer fabrication equipment spending of approximately $13 billion, and we expect at this moment in time that the market for equipment purchases in 2010 will be somewhere in the range of $20 billion to $22 billion, likely up 55% to 70% over 2009."
Newberry's forecast of 55% to 70% may have been influenced by the forecasts from the aforementioned experts. But the real guts and glory come from the statement a little further in Lam Research's earnings conference call:
"OK. Well, no disrespect intended, but what I would say, whenever I talk about what is going to happen, it's not what is going to happen, it's always predicated with based on what the customers are telling us today, based on what they are planning in terms of orders and shipments, this is what it looks like. And clearly, with the lead times as short as they are, I wouldn't believe anything anybody says because nobody knows. All you're really getting from me or from anybody else is what the current snapshot in time is, in terms of what the customers are saying they want to do, and what they're currently doing in this quarter.
"And so relative to what's actually going to happen in the second half of 2010, I don't know. I just know that if you take the current level of our shipment output on a systems basis, if we continue to ship at that rate, then the industry would have to spend about $28 billion in wafer fab equipment. And I think that that's less likely to be what they do. And so, therefore, when I look at what they're telling me they're planning on doing, they're telling me they're planning on taking less shipments in the second half than they are planning to take in the first half. Whether that's actually how it plays out, I don't know."
Wow. An industry expert, a president and CEO of leading equipment company, and he doesn't know. And his statement, " I wouldn't believe anything anybody says because nobody knows" is the master stroke that sums up the industry.
So, if he doesn't know, and doesn't think anyone else does, what's the point of advertising forecasts that can be inferred as wrong? Take a look at Qualcomm(QCOM Quote) and Motorola(MOT Quote), with their forecasts for growth in the cell phone sector. I bet they don't believe the forecast either.
1/2 2010 06:13 le 025268 semi og semi eq
interessante grafer, der i stedet for som artiklen antyder indikerer at semi eq ikke kommer op på niveau med opgangen i semi og opgangene i sektoren tidligere så antyder den nærmere at potentialet for fortsatte stigninger er enormt
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10665400/1/chipmakers-need-to-begin-spending.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
interessante grafer, der i stedet for som artiklen antyder indikerer at semi eq ikke kommer op på niveau med opgangen i semi og opgangene i sektoren tidligere så antyder den nærmere at potentialet for fortsatte stigninger er enormt
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10665400/1/chipmakers-need-to-begin-spending.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
