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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER
Q&A med Genmab A/S, 27 November Kl. 16:00 Læs mere her
Oversigt

Over de næste par år gælder det om at holde inflationen i ro. US trækkes stadig med et trægt boligmarked og høj arbejdsløshed.
FEDERAL Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke says significant restraints remain on the recovery in the US economy.

Mr Bernanke said the US had a ?considerable way to go to achieve a full recovery in our economy, and many Americans are still grappling with unemployment, foreclosure and lost savings?.

He was speaking at the 64th annual meeting of the Southern Legislative Conference, where he urged politicians from Southern states to keep promoting growth despite continued pressure to their budgets.

The recovery from the deep recession ran out of steam in the second quarter as consumers spent less and restocking by businesses ? which had lifted the economy from the second half of 2009 ? started to fade.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualised rate of 2.4 per cent in April to June, compared with 3.7 per cent in the first three months of 2010 and 5.0 per cent in the last quarter of 2009.

Mr Bernanke said rising incomes and slowly improving credit conditions should help sustain consumer spending in the coming quarters. Together with continued strong business investment, that should help lift the economy.

But the Fed chairman warned the economy still faces several hardships.

?The housing market has remained weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and new construction,? Mr Bernanke said.

?Similarly, poor economic fundamentals and tight credit are holding back investment in non-residential structures, such as office buildings, hotels and shopping malls.?

The economy?s weakness is keeping a lid on consumer prices, and the Fed chairman said the central bank expects inflation to remain subdued for the next couple of years. He didn?t signal any risk of deflation, which some Fed officials have indicated recently.

Answering a question about what lessons should be learnt from the Great Depression, Mr Bernanke said that today the Fed must be careful not to raise interest rates too soon and the government should proceed cautiously in cutting spending and raising taxes.

?We need to be careful about tightening too quickly,? Mr Bernanke said, adding that monetary policy should remain loose until ?sustained? growth is seen, especially in jobs.

Even though the Fed has kept short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008, the unemployment rate remains at a lofty 9.5 per cent and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time this year. Economists expect only a small rebound in jobs in the July employment report out on Friday.

It was just over a month ago that the Fed downgraded its outlook for the US economy slightly, citing the financial market fallout from Europe?s debt crisis. But those forecasts already look too rosy.

At its last meeting on June 22-23, the Fed?s policy-setting body trimmed its GDP prediction to around 3.3 per cent this year and to about 3.8 per cent in 2011. The US central bank may have to cut those predictions again when it meets in just over a week.

Since the June meeting, there have been increasing signs that the recovery is losing momentum and could be stalling. The unemployment rate remains painfully high, giving little hope that Americans will boost consumption again anytime soon.

Housing is still in the doldrums and the expansion in manufacturing is slowing. In its latest Beige Book report on regional economies out last week, the Fed said activity ground to a halt in several areas of the US in June and the first half of July.

?Notwithstanding the very difficult near-term budget issues you face, I urge you not to take your eye off the important goal of promoting growth,? Mr Bernanke told the politicians from the Southern states.

?A basic economic principle is that growth requires investment,? Mr Bernanke, who grew up in Dillon, S.C., added.

At the same time, Mr Bernanke stressed the importance of fiscal rectitude going forward. He called for states to build larger budget buffers?which he dubbed ?rainy-day funds??during the good times, when the economy is strong.

Mr Bernanke noted that at the end of 2006 state governments had set aside 12 per cent of their general expenditures in reserve funds.

?Given the depth of the recent recession, even these historically high reserve-fund balances proved insufficient to buffer fully the budgets of most states. Thus, state governments may wish to revisit their criteria for accumulating fiscal reserves,? he said.

Despite raising taxes and cutting spending two years in a row, states are expected to continue facing deep financial pressure for at least the next two years as they grapple with weak tax collections and the loss of federal support provided through the stimulus act.




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3/8 2010 08:29 TeamGarlic 131710



Hej Cyber
Tak for dit indlæg.

Vitaly Katsenelson fra contrarianedge.com har begået en artikel om Japan, som ligger lidt i forlængelse af dit indlæg. Link: http://contrarianedge.com/2010/07/30/japan-land-of-th..

Med disse 2 artikler in mente, skal man så som investor forberede sig på worse case scenaria, som Chroma Investing lige har begået en artikel om ? Link: http://chromainvesting.com/2010/07/30/worse-case-scen..




3/8 2010 10:44 cyber 031715



Et forgældet Japan er en potentiel trussel mod verdensøkonomien, og det kan meget vel være, at de ikke kan holde renten i ro, puha - ask dr. Doom

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3/8 2010 21:33 sl65amg 431735



Japan er ved at gennemgå en slags "generationsskifte" - det er derfor der er gældsopbyging.

Jeg tror at demografiske kurver fremover vil vise hvordan verden fremover vil tegnes. Men i denne kurve er det ikke nok at indregne alder, man må nødvendigvis også indregne en slags intellektuel "power".

Selvom man bør gå på pension i Europa, så er det jo ikke nødvendigvis ensbetydende med at man gør det, og de viden værdier man besidder går jo heller ikke tabt på nogle få år.

Men Europa må gøre op med deres pensionspolitik. 30 år med f.eks. 150.000 kr. i pension årligt er 4.500.000 kr i pensionsforpligtelser for samfundet. Mere end mange har bidraget med igennem et langt liv! Har vi råd til det?

Vi så hvordan det gik store amerikanske virksomheder der også havde pensionforpligtelser i deres virksomheder. Virksomheden gik konkurs, og pensionen forduftede!

Selvom man kan mene at Kina løber med det hele, så vil vi snart se Kinesiske virksomheder der står over for de samme udfordringer vi har haft i vesten. Stigende lønninger og krav om sikkerhed i ansættelsen. Derudover er der fortsat prestige i at besidde vestlige og Japanske produkter (selvom nogle er lavet i Kina).

Men kernen i de hele - vi kan ikke bare have vækst hele tiden. Vi må med mellemrum tage en lille pause og luge ud i de uheldige - som f.eks. mange af de projekter der opstod fra 2007-2008.



4/8 2010 07:23 TeamGarlic 031742



Hej sl65amg

Jeg er helt enig med dig i dine betragtninger. Europa må nødvendigvis foretage nogle ændringer for at imødegå den demografiske udvikling og trykket på økonomien. Det giver omvendt også nogle muligheder.

Der vil altid i perioder blive igangsat projekter, som ikke kan "forrente" sig og så må virksomhederne lukke dem - det er normal forretningsgang. Det er værre med det offentlige.

Jeg tror afgjort, at Kina og med tiden flere udviklingslande vil komme til at stå over for en masse sociale udfordringer/problemer, som den vestlige verden har kendt til i mange år. Bliver meget spændende at følge, hvordan Kina vil tackle det.



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