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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER
Q&A med Genmab A/S, 27 November Kl. 16:00 Læs mere her

Spekulaivt køb Tanzanite One


33118 butterboy 9/9 2010 15:04
Oversigt

Er man til minedrift og spekulative, langsigtede investeringer kunne Tanzanite One være et bud.

Tanzanit er en ædlesten, der er ca. 1000 gange mere sjælden end diamant. Den findes kun i Tanzania, hvor Tanzanite One nok er den størtste producent. De forsøger at blive tanzanites "de Beers" og kontrollere markedet.

Som andre små ædelstensproducenter har krisen været hård ved TZN. Markedet er dog i fremgang igen med stigende verdensøkonomisk aktivitet. Kursen er dog stadig helt i ATL bund på ca 8,25 pence. Den er halveret inden for et år. Toppen lå i 240 pence, og var for et par år siden i kurs 60-70 pence.

Et fjendtligt bud i 2008 på halvdelen af aktierne lød på 42 pence, men blev afvist. Sidste år udstedte man 1/4 flere aktier til kurs 15 pence.

Makret cap er nu kun 12-13 mio. dollar. Deres marketmaker har en lavet analye lagt ud på deres hjemmeside med kursmål 39 pence.

Forsætter fremgangen vil de muligivs i 2011 kunne tjene ca 9 cents (dvs 6 pence) pr aktie ifølge analysen..Det giver en p/e på 1-2.

Før krisen udbetalte de over en 4 årige periode 2004-2008 vistnok 35 cents i udbytte - dvs over 21 pence.

Den er meget-illikvid. Jeg trro på minimum 100 pct over det kommende år og har købt pænt ind.

http://www.tanzaniteone.com/research/2009_12_08_Ambri..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanzanite

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1594..

Aktien handles i London og kan købes via Danske Netbank



9/9 2010 16:16 colombuss 033121



Der har i længere tid været speksis omkring fremtidig ressource, dvs hvor lang tid man kan producere.

Dernæst er der i smykkeindustrien en vis skepsis idet stenen har let ved at gå i stykker.



9/9 2010 17:40 butterboy 033127



jeg har læst der skulle være resourcer til ca yderligere 15 år.

Ja, stenen er noget blødere, hvilket betyder man ikke kan bruge den så godt ved alle smykker. Men det er vel ikke noget nyt.

Jeg ser helt klart den lave kurs som resultat af manglede - midlertidig? - efterspørgsel. personligt tror jeg de asiatisek lande mv vil kunne trække nye kundergrupper til.

Men den rykker nok først for alvor i 2011



9/9 2010 18:53 colombuss 033130



De stoerste markeder er USA og Sydafrika, og foerstnaevnte er meget meget koelige over for stenen, end de var for en 10 aar siden. Mange er blevet skuffede over bloedheden.

Af etiske aarsager, er jeg ogsaa tilbageholdende.

Stenen mines i et meget fattigt omraade, og sammenstoed mellem Tanzanite One og lokale minere, sker, nogle gange med doedelig udgang.



9/9 2010 18:58 colombuss 033132



Men derudover, skal jeg slet ikke kunne hverken afvise, eller bekraefte om det er en god investring eller ej. Kom blot med lidt ekstra info.



15/9 2010 15:05 butterboy 133483



så kører vi op med 19 pct i dag

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:TNZ...

nu må se om det er starten på en opgang. Der er handlet pænt med aktier idag.



11/1 2011 08:42 butterboy 037759



Lige en update på Tanzanite One.

kursen er nu lige omkring 15 pence. er skkulel være plads til endnu en fordobling:

TanzaniteOne: maiden JORC-compliant resource for Tsavorite project
Tuesday , 11 Jan 2011
TanzaniteOne has announced a maiden JORC resources statement for its Tsavorite Project (green gemstones), located 20km from its Tanzanite mine in NE Tanzania.

Highlights comprise:


•JORC-compliant Inferred Resource of 7.6-10.4 million bank cubic metres (Mbcm), or approximately 18.2-24.9Mt
•JORC-compliant Indicated Resource of 0.89-2.17Mbcm, or approximately 2.1-5.2Mt located within Inferred Resource
•Average Tsavorite grade of 1.6 carats per loose cubic meter for the Indicated Resource
•Estimated 1.4 and 3.5 million carats of Tsavorite located within the Indicated Resource only
•Further resource statement expected in 2Q11, following a second phase of bulk sampling

Comment

The result of an exploration programme started in 3Q09, this resource is commercially significant. Compared with the Tanzanite grade (50+cts/t) and production (1Mcts pa) it may appear modest, but the gemstones will be easily mined and recovered from unconsolidated gravels and the company should therefore achieve a good return. Also, being so close to the existing Merelani mine, it will be able to draw upon people, equipment and infrastructure readily available to it at marginal cost.

However, it is also difficult to determine what the announcement means economically as there are no costs given at this stage and it depends on the quality of the stones; and, therefore, their value. Typically, gemstones found in gravels and other secondary deposits are more consistent in size and quality than for primary deposits, but the concentration (grade) also tends to be lower; both of these characteristics are due to the winnowing effect of erosion and re-deposition. Garnet in general is semi-precious and not particularly valuable, but Tsavorite's rarity and vivid, intense grass green colour outperforms all but the best emeralds, the more commonly thought of green gemstone, and are highly prized.

Though the price of Tsavorites is typically a quarter that of emeralds (which themselves are often able to fetch prices higher than equivalent sized good quality diamonds), but 2-4x higher than Tanzanite (last year's fourth ‘sight' achieved an average of US$10.6/ct), and the larger sizes especially so because of their rarity; prices typically range from a few dollars per carat (US$12-15/gram) for the smallest stones to US$80/ct rough for larger pieces.

Additional production means additional revenue. Putting an in-situ value of US$5/ct for the 1.4-3.5Mcts in the Indicated Resource gives a top end equivalent to £11m, two-thirds of the current market cap of the company (£17.6m). We therefore continue to see upside to the share price as the performance of the company's Tanzanite mine continues to increase production and improve profitability and the news (at the end of November) that Mike Nunn, the former CEO, has reduced his shareholding to less than 1% of the company, removing an overhang of more than 10% of the issued share capital. Plans to implement a commercial cutting centre in Tanzania are also well advanced.



Recommendation

We see this news as another positive development and will add an element of diversification to its present single product. Tanzanite is expected to benefit from the general uplift in global luxury goods demand which will spill over into the precious stones market. We have already seen a marked recovery in diamond prices and this can be expected to filter into other categories of precious stones.

TanzaniteOne's price, in our view, still represents an excellent opportunity and we continue to stand by our 34p price target, which we feel adequately factors in the perceived inherent Tanzanian risk around the New Mining Charter that came into force last year.

We expect an operational and marketing update in early February.







TRÅDOVERSIGT