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An unfolding tragedy in Japan following a devastating tsunami will have a significant impact on the shipping industry, a top analyst says.
While the full extent of the saga is still to be seen, market watchers believe panamax and supramax bulker owners could benefit during the rebuilding effort.
LNG and products tanker companies are also likely to experience an upturn, while VLCC owners, container lines and car carrier firms will see reduced demand, experts say.
Natasha Boyden of Cantor Fitzgerald explained: “While it's difficult to immediately assess the impact of this event on the shipping industry, given the importance of maritime trade to Japan we expect the impact to be fairly significant.”
As TradeWinds reported earlier today, many Japanese ports have closed following the tragedy.
While Boyden suggests the move is likely to be precautionary in many cases, the closures will increase congestion and bring shortages as steel mills and coal power plants use up existing stocks.
“Given that many major steel mills are located in the south away from the site of the quake, we expect demand to increase for coking coal and iron ore as steel mills look to replenish stocks in the medium-term,” Boyden wrote in an update today.
“Furthermore, steel demand could be bolstered by reconstruction needs, although we expect imported timber to also be in high demand given the amount of residential housing destroyed. Also, we will be watching closely to see if more grain will need to be imported due to crop flooding from the tsunamis.
“In all, we believe these trends should benefit panamax and supramax vessel classes after the initial disruptions pass.”
Dag Kilen and Frode Morkedal of RS Platou Markets believe events may follow a similar course to those seen after the January 1995 earthquake in Kobe.
On that occasion tanker and dry bulk rates did not see a discernable effect during the year that followed.
LNG, crude oil and coal imports took a dip in the month after the disaster but rebounded strongly in the March, they explained.
Imports of refined fuel oil stayed robust in the February and for the following few months as refineries took their time to come back on line, the Platou analysts say.
“We believe the repeat of similar scenario with pent up demand supportive of shipping segments in the long term owing to rebuilding needs, but see subdued near term due to infrastructure bottlenecks,” they said.
However, given the damage to nuclear power plants, imports may recover more quickly on this occasion if factories have not been severely damaged, the analysts say.
Killen and Morkedal added: “Bottom line, we believe the tragic events could be negative for shipping near term but see replacement of lost nuclear power as potentially most beneficial for LNG and product tankers in the medium term.”
Car carrier and containership owners will, however, be negative affected following the tragedy due to falling exports, they add.
VLCC owners also stand to lose out as eastbound rates out of the Middle East soften, Boyden warns.
By Andy Pierce in London
Published: 15:14 GMT, 14 Mar 11 | updated: 16:25 GMT, 14 Mar 11
http://www.tradewinds.no/finance/578139/japan-effect-significant
An unfolding tragedy in Japan following a devastating tsunami will have a significant impact on the shipping industry, a top analyst says.
While the full extent of the saga is still to be seen, market watchers believe panamax and supramax bulker owners could benefit during the rebuilding effort.
LNG and products tanker companies are also likely to experience an upturn, while VLCC owners, container lines and car carrier firms will see reduced demand, experts say.
Natasha Boyden of Cantor Fitzgerald explained: “While it's difficult to immediately assess the impact of this event on the shipping industry, given the importance of maritime trade to Japan we expect the impact to be fairly significant.”
As TradeWinds reported earlier today, many Japanese ports have closed following the tragedy.
While Boyden suggests the move is likely to be precautionary in many cases, the closures will increase congestion and bring shortages as steel mills and coal power plants use up existing stocks.
“Given that many major steel mills are located in the south away from the site of the quake, we expect demand to increase for coking coal and iron ore as steel mills look to replenish stocks in the medium-term,” Boyden wrote in an update today.
“Furthermore, steel demand could be bolstered by reconstruction needs, although we expect imported timber to also be in high demand given the amount of residential housing destroyed. Also, we will be watching closely to see if more grain will need to be imported due to crop flooding from the tsunamis.
“In all, we believe these trends should benefit panamax and supramax vessel classes after the initial disruptions pass.”
Dag Kilen and Frode Morkedal of RS Platou Markets believe events may follow a similar course to those seen after the January 1995 earthquake in Kobe.
On that occasion tanker and dry bulk rates did not see a discernable effect during the year that followed.
LNG, crude oil and coal imports took a dip in the month after the disaster but rebounded strongly in the March, they explained.
Imports of refined fuel oil stayed robust in the February and for the following few months as refineries took their time to come back on line, the Platou analysts say.
“We believe the repeat of similar scenario with pent up demand supportive of shipping segments in the long term owing to rebuilding needs, but see subdued near term due to infrastructure bottlenecks,” they said.
However, given the damage to nuclear power plants, imports may recover more quickly on this occasion if factories have not been severely damaged, the analysts say.
Killen and Morkedal added: “Bottom line, we believe the tragic events could be negative for shipping near term but see replacement of lost nuclear power as potentially most beneficial for LNG and product tankers in the medium term.”
Car carrier and containership owners will, however, be negative affected following the tragedy due to falling exports, they add.
VLCC owners also stand to lose out as eastbound rates out of the Middle East soften, Boyden warns.
By Andy Pierce in London
Published: 15:14 GMT, 14 Mar 11 | updated: 16:25 GMT, 14 Mar 11
http://www.tradewinds.no/finance/578139/japan-effect-significant
22/3 2011 18:19 le 0
40402 det har overhovedet ikke nogen indflydelse på raterne i shipping markedet
mængdeændringerne er marginale og med en store overkapacitet i shippingmarkedet er det udelukkende væksten i kina og de andre lande i asien og andre emerging markets, der dominerer udviklingen i fragtmængderne og hvornår overkapaciteten bliver opslugt
der er alt for mange brancheorganisationer der er blevet påvirket af al den mediedækning af en hændelse der ikke har den store betydning bortset fra de stakkels mennesker, der bor i området
og så kommer de med deres fantasifulde analyser, der aldrig passer
mængdeændringerne er marginale og med en store overkapacitet i shippingmarkedet er det udelukkende væksten i kina og de andre lande i asien og andre emerging markets, der dominerer udviklingen i fragtmængderne og hvornår overkapaciteten bliver opslugt
der er alt for mange brancheorganisationer der er blevet påvirket af al den mediedækning af en hændelse der ikke har den store betydning bortset fra de stakkels mennesker, der bor i området
og så kommer de med deres fantasifulde analyser, der aldrig passer
