As Japan shutdowns drag on, auto crisis worsens
With shortages looming at car dealerships and factories, the global auto crisis deepens
.
Companies:General Motors Company Common SHonda Motor Company, Ltd. CommoToyota Motor Corporation Common.
FILE - This 2003 aerial file photo shows General Motors Corp.'s Shreveport assembly plant and the surrounding area. The auto industry disruptions triggered by Japan's earthquake and tsunami are about to get worse. When General Motors briefly shut the pickup plant in Shreveport, La., due to a lack of parts, it caused the partial closing of a New York factory that supplies engines for those trucks. (AP Photo/The Shreveport Times, file) NO SALES, NO MAGS, MANDATORY CREDIT: SHREVEPORTTIMES.COM
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{"s" : "gm,hmc,tm","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} Elaine Kurtenbach and Sharon Silke Carty, AP Business Writers, On Sunday March 27, 2011, 5:53 pm EDT
TOKYO (AP) -- The auto industry disruptions triggered by Japan's earthquake and tsunami are about to get worse.
In the weeks ahead, car buyers will have difficulty finding the model they want in certain colors, thousands of auto plant workers will likely be told to stay home, and companies such as Toyota, Honda and others will lose billions of dollars in revenue. More than two weeks since the natural disaster, inventories of crucial car supplies -- from computer chips to paint pigments -- are dwindling fast as Japanese factories that make them struggle to restart.
Because parts and supplies are shipped by slow-moving boats, the real drop-off has yet to be felt by factories in the U.S., Europe and Asia. That will come by the middle of April.
"This is the biggest impact ever in the history of the automobile industry," says Koji Endo, managing director at Advanced Research Japan in Tokyo.
Much of Japan's auto industry -- the second largest supplier of cars in the world -- remains idle. Few plants were seriously damaged by the quake, but with supplies of water and electricity fleeting, no one can say when factories will crank up. Some auto analysts say it could be as late as this summer.
Hitachi Automotive Systems, which makes parts such as airflow sensors and drive control systems, is waiting for its suppliers to restart while dealing with its own problems. Its plants are without water and gas, and have rolling electricity blackouts. Workers are repairing crumpled ceilings, fallen walls and cleaning up shattered glass. A spokesman says he doesn't know when its plants will reopen.
The uncertainly has suppliers, automakers and dealers scrambling. And it exposes the vulnerability of the world's most complex supply chain, where 3,000 parts go into single car or truck. Each one of those parts is made up of hundreds of other pieces supplied by multiple companies. All it takes is one part to go missing or arrive late, and a vehicle can't be built.
When General Motors briefly shut a pickup plant in Shreveport, La., due to a lack of parts, it caused the partial closing of a New York factory that supplies engines for those trucks. Sweden's Volvo has warned that its production could be disrupted because it is down to a week's worth of some parts.
Car buyers will soon see higher prices and fewer choices. Some car colors will be harder to get because a paint pigment factory in Japan was damaged and shut production. As a result, Ford is telling dealers to stop ordering "tuxedo black" models of its F-150 pickup and Expedition and Navigator SUVs. It's also shifting away from some reds. The moves are precautionary, Ford says. Chrysler told dealers it was temporarily restricting orders of vehicles in 10 colors.
That worries some dealers, especially when popular colors like black could be in short supply
"It's hard enough to sell a $60,000 Navigator in this economy," says Fortunes O'Neal, general manager at Park Cities Ford in Dallas. "We don't want to have to tell customers, `You've got to pick another color.'"
Customers also face rising prices for models like Toyota's Prius, which is made only in Japan. Fears of falling supply have some dealers driving a hard bargain with customers who want the fuel-efficient hybrid as gasoline prices rise. Recent discounts of 5 to 10 percent on that car are disappearing.
Japanese carmakers, who have shut most of their domestic plants, are warning that some of their overseas factories will stop running, too, in an effort to conserve supplies. Toyota and Honda expect shutdowns at North American plants. Honda says production could be interrupted after April 1. Even though most of its parts are sourced in the region, a few critical ones still come from Japan.
Goldman Sachs estimates the shutdowns are costing the Japan automakers $200 million a day, which adds up to $2.8 billion for just the past two weeks. Each week of continued shutdowns costs $1.4 billion. By comparison, Toyota made $2.3 billion in all of 2010, and its sudden acceleration recalls cost $2 billion. The cost of damage from Japan's natural disaster could dwarf that recall, which was considered Toyota's biggest crisis ever.
Much depends on how many spare components automakers have in stock -- which is probably very few. Japan's automakers spearheaded lean manufacturing, under which parts are delivered to plants the same day they are used. Automakers are still receiving parts that were put on ships weeks ago, but those supplies will dwindle.
After the earthquake hit, car companies began the long process of figuring out which parts are in danger of running out. That means figuring out where every piece in every part comes from.
"Everyone is putting on the brakes a little bit and taking a look to see where they are affected," says Paul Newton, an analyst with IHS Automotive.
Companies will shut down plants as soon as some parts start running out, which could start happening in the next four to six weeks, he says. "You will see it happen almost daily."
IHS Automotive predicts that one-third of daily global automotive production will be cut because of supply chain disruptions. That means about 5 million vehicles worldwide won't be built, out of the 72 million vehicles planned for production in 2011.
To get a feel for the supply chain, consider a car radio. It's made up of hundreds of pieces from all over the world. The display may come from a supplier in Japan, while the wiring and circuitry originate in Korea. The plastic knobs could come from a company in China, and the metal structure that holds it all together is shipped from India.
All those parts come together at different times: The wiring and electronic components are installed into the metal frame. Then that piece is shipped to another supplier, who snaps on the plastic face and knobs. The radio could pass through three or four suppliers before being put on a ship, where it will spend weeks at sea heading to its final destination: The assembly plant.
"This isn't just as straightforward as assembling the iPad 2," says Brian Johnson, an autos analyst with Barclays Capital.
An example of Japan's importance in auto parts: its suppliers make many of the electronic components that control music systems and the sensors that monitor fuel levels and airbags.
Although most Japanese auto parts makers are not located in the areas that were inundated by the tsunami, between quake damage, electricity outages and water cutoffs, many factories in the region have remained paralyzed ever since.
Suppliers could be up and running again in April, but it could take until May or June for the entire supply base to be back.
Some car manufacturers, meanwhile, are considering shifting operations to deal with the crisis. Nissan, for example, is thinking of moving some of its engine production to Tennessee from Japan.
But those shifts won't be easy. First, lean inventories make it hard for automakers to suddenly change sources of supply. And plants that build car electronics, for example, have stringent safety requirements and exacting high-tech specifications that limit a company's flexibility, says Christopher Richter, an industry analyst at CLSA Asia Capital Markets. A supplier for the computer chip that triggers an air bag, for example, can't be switched quickly.
But car executives can keep this from becoming a total disaster: They can allocate scarce parts to their more popular or profitable vehicles, keeping those assembly lines running while slowing down the less profitable ones.
That's what many people believe GM did when it decided to close the Shreveport plant, because dealers have ample inventory of both trucks made there, more than two months' worth.
Newton says car companies will do their best to keep producing the cars people want.
"It's quite a lot to prioritize, but they'll do it," he says.
Kurtenbach reported from Tokyo and Carty reported from Detroit. David Koenig in Dallas contributed to this report
With shortages looming at car dealerships and factories, the global auto crisis deepens
.
Companies:General Motors Company Common SHonda Motor Company, Ltd. CommoToyota Motor Corporation Common.
FILE - This 2003 aerial file photo shows General Motors Corp.'s Shreveport assembly plant and the surrounding area. The auto industry disruptions triggered by Japan's earthquake and tsunami are about to get worse. When General Motors briefly shut the pickup plant in Shreveport, La., due to a lack of parts, it caused the partial closing of a New York factory that supplies engines for those trucks. (AP Photo/The Shreveport Times, file) NO SALES, NO MAGS, MANDATORY CREDIT: SHREVEPORTTIMES.COM
Related Quotes
Symbol Price Change
GM 31.47 +0.08
HMC 36.81 -1.19
TM 80.76 -0.43
Follow these stocks
{"s" : "gm,hmc,tm","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} Elaine Kurtenbach and Sharon Silke Carty, AP Business Writers, On Sunday March 27, 2011, 5:53 pm EDT
TOKYO (AP) -- The auto industry disruptions triggered by Japan's earthquake and tsunami are about to get worse.
In the weeks ahead, car buyers will have difficulty finding the model they want in certain colors, thousands of auto plant workers will likely be told to stay home, and companies such as Toyota, Honda and others will lose billions of dollars in revenue. More than two weeks since the natural disaster, inventories of crucial car supplies -- from computer chips to paint pigments -- are dwindling fast as Japanese factories that make them struggle to restart.
Because parts and supplies are shipped by slow-moving boats, the real drop-off has yet to be felt by factories in the U.S., Europe and Asia. That will come by the middle of April.
"This is the biggest impact ever in the history of the automobile industry," says Koji Endo, managing director at Advanced Research Japan in Tokyo.
Much of Japan's auto industry -- the second largest supplier of cars in the world -- remains idle. Few plants were seriously damaged by the quake, but with supplies of water and electricity fleeting, no one can say when factories will crank up. Some auto analysts say it could be as late as this summer.
Hitachi Automotive Systems, which makes parts such as airflow sensors and drive control systems, is waiting for its suppliers to restart while dealing with its own problems. Its plants are without water and gas, and have rolling electricity blackouts. Workers are repairing crumpled ceilings, fallen walls and cleaning up shattered glass. A spokesman says he doesn't know when its plants will reopen.
The uncertainly has suppliers, automakers and dealers scrambling. And it exposes the vulnerability of the world's most complex supply chain, where 3,000 parts go into single car or truck. Each one of those parts is made up of hundreds of other pieces supplied by multiple companies. All it takes is one part to go missing or arrive late, and a vehicle can't be built.
When General Motors briefly shut a pickup plant in Shreveport, La., due to a lack of parts, it caused the partial closing of a New York factory that supplies engines for those trucks. Sweden's Volvo has warned that its production could be disrupted because it is down to a week's worth of some parts.
Car buyers will soon see higher prices and fewer choices. Some car colors will be harder to get because a paint pigment factory in Japan was damaged and shut production. As a result, Ford is telling dealers to stop ordering "tuxedo black" models of its F-150 pickup and Expedition and Navigator SUVs. It's also shifting away from some reds. The moves are precautionary, Ford says. Chrysler told dealers it was temporarily restricting orders of vehicles in 10 colors.
That worries some dealers, especially when popular colors like black could be in short supply
"It's hard enough to sell a $60,000 Navigator in this economy," says Fortunes O'Neal, general manager at Park Cities Ford in Dallas. "We don't want to have to tell customers, `You've got to pick another color.'"
Customers also face rising prices for models like Toyota's Prius, which is made only in Japan. Fears of falling supply have some dealers driving a hard bargain with customers who want the fuel-efficient hybrid as gasoline prices rise. Recent discounts of 5 to 10 percent on that car are disappearing.
Japanese carmakers, who have shut most of their domestic plants, are warning that some of their overseas factories will stop running, too, in an effort to conserve supplies. Toyota and Honda expect shutdowns at North American plants. Honda says production could be interrupted after April 1. Even though most of its parts are sourced in the region, a few critical ones still come from Japan.
Goldman Sachs estimates the shutdowns are costing the Japan automakers $200 million a day, which adds up to $2.8 billion for just the past two weeks. Each week of continued shutdowns costs $1.4 billion. By comparison, Toyota made $2.3 billion in all of 2010, and its sudden acceleration recalls cost $2 billion. The cost of damage from Japan's natural disaster could dwarf that recall, which was considered Toyota's biggest crisis ever.
Much depends on how many spare components automakers have in stock -- which is probably very few. Japan's automakers spearheaded lean manufacturing, under which parts are delivered to plants the same day they are used. Automakers are still receiving parts that were put on ships weeks ago, but those supplies will dwindle.
After the earthquake hit, car companies began the long process of figuring out which parts are in danger of running out. That means figuring out where every piece in every part comes from.
"Everyone is putting on the brakes a little bit and taking a look to see where they are affected," says Paul Newton, an analyst with IHS Automotive.
Companies will shut down plants as soon as some parts start running out, which could start happening in the next four to six weeks, he says. "You will see it happen almost daily."
IHS Automotive predicts that one-third of daily global automotive production will be cut because of supply chain disruptions. That means about 5 million vehicles worldwide won't be built, out of the 72 million vehicles planned for production in 2011.
To get a feel for the supply chain, consider a car radio. It's made up of hundreds of pieces from all over the world. The display may come from a supplier in Japan, while the wiring and circuitry originate in Korea. The plastic knobs could come from a company in China, and the metal structure that holds it all together is shipped from India.
All those parts come together at different times: The wiring and electronic components are installed into the metal frame. Then that piece is shipped to another supplier, who snaps on the plastic face and knobs. The radio could pass through three or four suppliers before being put on a ship, where it will spend weeks at sea heading to its final destination: The assembly plant.
"This isn't just as straightforward as assembling the iPad 2," says Brian Johnson, an autos analyst with Barclays Capital.
An example of Japan's importance in auto parts: its suppliers make many of the electronic components that control music systems and the sensors that monitor fuel levels and airbags.
Although most Japanese auto parts makers are not located in the areas that were inundated by the tsunami, between quake damage, electricity outages and water cutoffs, many factories in the region have remained paralyzed ever since.
Suppliers could be up and running again in April, but it could take until May or June for the entire supply base to be back.
Some car manufacturers, meanwhile, are considering shifting operations to deal with the crisis. Nissan, for example, is thinking of moving some of its engine production to Tennessee from Japan.
But those shifts won't be easy. First, lean inventories make it hard for automakers to suddenly change sources of supply. And plants that build car electronics, for example, have stringent safety requirements and exacting high-tech specifications that limit a company's flexibility, says Christopher Richter, an industry analyst at CLSA Asia Capital Markets. A supplier for the computer chip that triggers an air bag, for example, can't be switched quickly.
But car executives can keep this from becoming a total disaster: They can allocate scarce parts to their more popular or profitable vehicles, keeping those assembly lines running while slowing down the less profitable ones.
That's what many people believe GM did when it decided to close the Shreveport plant, because dealers have ample inventory of both trucks made there, more than two months' worth.
Newton says car companies will do their best to keep producing the cars people want.
"It's quite a lot to prioritize, but they'll do it," he says.
Kurtenbach reported from Tokyo and Carty reported from Detroit. David Koenig in Dallas contributed to this report
Later: No capacity for surging demand
ja, jo mere knaphed og for lave lagre jo mere produktion senere hen og jo bedre priser
ulykker er vældig godt, når man investerer i aktier
Mike Colias
Automotive News -- March 28, 2011 - 12:01 am ET
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•Now: No parts, crippled plants
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Parts makers are girding for the second half of the year. They expect automakers to press hard to offset production lost due to parts shortages related to the Japan disaster.
Suppliers doubt they'll be able to meet automakers' production targets then.
"If the industry is going to run at a run rate that is substantially higher than where we've been, there will be capacity issues," said Jeffrey Klei, president for NAFTA at Continental Automotive Divisions.
Some suppliers tell Automotive News that they're bracing for a North American run rate as high as 15 million units in the second half of the year. Estimates for total 2011 production now are around 13 million.
Analysts say widespread second-quarter production disruptions appear certain. The plant shutdowns plaguing automakers in Japan have begun to migrate to the United States because of a shortage of Japan-made parts. Consulting firm IHS Automotive predicts that the global industry could lose nearly 3 million units over the next two months.
Last week, J.D. Power and Associates decided to keep its North American production forecast for 2011 at 12.9 million. Chief forecaster Jeff Schuster foresees production disruptions in coming months but added, "We expect any lost volume would be made up later this year."
That's what concerns Flavia De Veny, vice president of engineering at Martinrea International Inc., an Ontario maker of body, chassis and fluid-handling systems. She said it's "believable" that the run rate could approach 15 million as automakers try to make up lost ground.
"If volumes hit the expected levels, we anticipate production stoppages," De Veny said.
De Veny said Martinrea could handle a second-half ramp-up by customers. But it would have trouble going after new business if volumes swing much higher.
On a conference call with dealership groups last week, investment bank Goldman Sachs said a shortage of semiconductors is the biggest threat to global production. That problem, and shortages of rubber and plastics, could hit U.S. production within two weeks, the bank said.
A strained supply base already has created bottlenecks. Many suppliers are struggling to meet rising demand after paring staff and closing facilities during the downturn. Supply constraints hampered production in recent months, idling a Chrysler Group minivan plant in January and slowing the December launch of the Ford Explorer.
Inventories were relatively tight before the earthquake. U.S. industrywide inventories stood at a 60-day supply on March 1, the lowest level for that month since 2002.
Craig Fitzgerald, a consultant at Plante & Moran in suburban Detroit, said many clients had been scrambling to meet demand. "They are getting deliveries to their customers by hook or crook so they don't disrupt their production," he said.
Fitzgerald said the Japan disaster is just the latest headache for suppliers. Others include rising raw-material prices; shortages of tires, electronics and other components; and rising fuel prices that are altering the product mix. He said suppliers increasingly have been turning to the spot market for scarce parts and raw materials such as steel.
Fitzgerald thinks the supply base can rise to the occasion should orders spike later this year. He said parts makers have adapted to doing more with less as production volumes have increased in the past year.
"This will test the savvy of supplier CEOs to hire the right people and buy the right materials at the right time," he said.
Some suppliers say they'll be ready.
"I'm positioned to handle more volume," said Peter Anthony, CEO of UGN Inc., a suburban Chicago producer of interior parts for Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and other Asian automakers.
Anthony, whose company supplies the headliner for the Honda Odyssey minivan, said he's making contingency plans for volumes to drop as much as 60 percent over the next six months, at which point he would "flex our costs appropriately."
Partly to ramp up for new programs, Anthony said he has increased his work force from 700 workers two years ago to about 1,000.
"It's a challenge for the OEMs to keep cars on the lot," he said. "We're ready to help them do that."
Read more: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110328/OEM01/303289954/1117#ixzz1HsZrYmoP
ja, jo mere knaphed og for lave lagre jo mere produktion senere hen og jo bedre priser
ulykker er vældig godt, når man investerer i aktier
Mike Colias
Automotive News -- March 28, 2011 - 12:01 am ET
Print Email Reprints Add a commentRecommend >> Send us a Letter to the Editor
Related Stories
•Now: No parts, crippled plants
Follow Automotive News
•
•
•
•
•
•
Parts makers are girding for the second half of the year. They expect automakers to press hard to offset production lost due to parts shortages related to the Japan disaster.
Suppliers doubt they'll be able to meet automakers' production targets then.
"If the industry is going to run at a run rate that is substantially higher than where we've been, there will be capacity issues," said Jeffrey Klei, president for NAFTA at Continental Automotive Divisions.
Some suppliers tell Automotive News that they're bracing for a North American run rate as high as 15 million units in the second half of the year. Estimates for total 2011 production now are around 13 million.
Analysts say widespread second-quarter production disruptions appear certain. The plant shutdowns plaguing automakers in Japan have begun to migrate to the United States because of a shortage of Japan-made parts. Consulting firm IHS Automotive predicts that the global industry could lose nearly 3 million units over the next two months.
Last week, J.D. Power and Associates decided to keep its North American production forecast for 2011 at 12.9 million. Chief forecaster Jeff Schuster foresees production disruptions in coming months but added, "We expect any lost volume would be made up later this year."
That's what concerns Flavia De Veny, vice president of engineering at Martinrea International Inc., an Ontario maker of body, chassis and fluid-handling systems. She said it's "believable" that the run rate could approach 15 million as automakers try to make up lost ground.
"If volumes hit the expected levels, we anticipate production stoppages," De Veny said.
De Veny said Martinrea could handle a second-half ramp-up by customers. But it would have trouble going after new business if volumes swing much higher.
On a conference call with dealership groups last week, investment bank Goldman Sachs said a shortage of semiconductors is the biggest threat to global production. That problem, and shortages of rubber and plastics, could hit U.S. production within two weeks, the bank said.
A strained supply base already has created bottlenecks. Many suppliers are struggling to meet rising demand after paring staff and closing facilities during the downturn. Supply constraints hampered production in recent months, idling a Chrysler Group minivan plant in January and slowing the December launch of the Ford Explorer.
Inventories were relatively tight before the earthquake. U.S. industrywide inventories stood at a 60-day supply on March 1, the lowest level for that month since 2002.
Craig Fitzgerald, a consultant at Plante & Moran in suburban Detroit, said many clients had been scrambling to meet demand. "They are getting deliveries to their customers by hook or crook so they don't disrupt their production," he said.
Fitzgerald said the Japan disaster is just the latest headache for suppliers. Others include rising raw-material prices; shortages of tires, electronics and other components; and rising fuel prices that are altering the product mix. He said suppliers increasingly have been turning to the spot market for scarce parts and raw materials such as steel.
Fitzgerald thinks the supply base can rise to the occasion should orders spike later this year. He said parts makers have adapted to doing more with less as production volumes have increased in the past year.
"This will test the savvy of supplier CEOs to hire the right people and buy the right materials at the right time," he said.
Some suppliers say they'll be ready.
"I'm positioned to handle more volume," said Peter Anthony, CEO of UGN Inc., a suburban Chicago producer of interior parts for Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and other Asian automakers.
Anthony, whose company supplies the headliner for the Honda Odyssey minivan, said he's making contingency plans for volumes to drop as much as 60 percent over the next six months, at which point he would "flex our costs appropriately."
Partly to ramp up for new programs, Anthony said he has increased his work force from 700 workers two years ago to about 1,000.
"It's a challenge for the OEMs to keep cars on the lot," he said. "We're ready to help them do that."
Read more: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110328/OEM01/303289954/1117#ixzz1HsZrYmoP
Japanese auto industry recovery may take months
Toyota models damaged by a tsunami following the March 11 earthquake are stacked in the Sendai port in Japan this week. Facing supplier and other disruptions, it could be months, rather than weeks, before Japan's automakers are back on track.
Photo credit: BLOOMBERG
March 26, 2011 - 12:01 am ET
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TOKYO (Reuters) - Lost auto and truck output in the two weeks since an earthquake and tsunami struck northeast Japan tops a third of a million vehicles, and it could be months, rather than weeks, before the country's automakers get back on track.
Modern-day cars have as many as 30,000 parts, 70 to 80 percent of which are supplied by hundreds of component makers. A single missing bolt can halt assembly lines and set off a chain reaction in the industry's famed just-in-time manufacturing process.
With some 500 parts firms affected in the quake and tsunami-devastated northeast, cutting off supply of electronic parts, resin-based products and more, Japan's auto industry is especially vulnerable to a ruptured supply chain.
"We're in a stage where we can only hope for an incremental improvement," said Deutsche Securities auto analyst Kurt Sanger, who predicted a return to normal operations would take months.
"'Normal' is a long way away," the Tokyo-based analyst said.
Before the disaster, Japan's $700 billion autos industry was just returning to a mild recovery track following a brutal financial crisis that battered car sales worldwide. Manufacturers were cutting costs and also ramping up overseas production to weather a strong yen.
The March 11 quake damaged a factory of Renesas Electronics Corp., a leading supplier of automotive micro control units. Close to a fifth of global auto production relies on products from its Naka factory, in Ibaraki prefecture, Deutsche Securities estimates.
When a 2007 earthquake damaged a plant at Riken Corp., Japan's top supplier of piston rings, all 12 Japanese car and truck makers were forced into a 3-day shutdown.
In a worst-case scenario, global vehicle output could slump 30 percent within six weeks because of the shortage of auto parts stemming from the Japan quake, research firm IHS Automotive has warned.
"It's a completely unprecedented situation," said UBS auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida.
Running on empty
Japan's car makers are still building vehicles overseas with whatever stocks they have, but those will soon run out. Toyota Motor Corp. this week notified workers and dealers in North America that output there could slow. Honda Motor Co. says its North American output will likely be disrupted after April 1.
Honda, Mazda Motor Corp., and Nissan Motor Co. have curtailed U.S. dealer orders for models assembled in Japan.
At home, the industry has ground to a virtual halt since the earthquake, and automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda have been left to issue almost daily updates on their production plans.
With earnings certain to take a hit and Japanese transport sector stocks slumping 11 percent since the disaster, automakers are reluctant to forecast how long the stoppages could last, saying only that a near-term solution is elusive.
"It's very, very difficult to predict when we will be able to restart production," Nissan spokesman Toshitake Inoshita said.
Some replacement parts and components for vehicles built overseas are being made, but stocks are running low.
"The capability to produce integrated circuits, semi-conductors, LCD displays/films, and sensors is still in question," IHS said in a report released Friday. "This is possibly most important to global OEMs - the downstream effects are beginning to influence volume outside Japan."
In addition, the quake zone is the home of "gear manufacturing, seal systems, clutch components, specialty bearings, and other capital-intensive, application-specific components, for which alternate supply sources are difficult to find," IHS said.
Added to that, automakers face rolling power blackouts, a shortage of fuel to truck goods, and a nuclear crisis that has put some suppliers near the damaged Fukushima complex off-limits, such as Nissan's engine factory in Iwaki, Tochigi.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association has set up a procurement committee to centralize information on parts suppliers, and reduce any duplication of effort.
That may help speed up information-gathering, but won't rebuild damaged factories or deliver substitute parts, analysts said.
"Normalizing operations requires not only repairs at the vehicle assembly plants, but also the restoration of facilities at a wide range of parts suppliers, public service companies, and distributors," Yoshida of UBS said.
Read more: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110326/COPY01/303259800/1117/OEM01#ixzz1Hsgagf7o
Toyota models damaged by a tsunami following the March 11 earthquake are stacked in the Sendai port in Japan this week. Facing supplier and other disruptions, it could be months, rather than weeks, before Japan's automakers are back on track.
Photo credit: BLOOMBERG
March 26, 2011 - 12:01 am ET
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TOKYO (Reuters) - Lost auto and truck output in the two weeks since an earthquake and tsunami struck northeast Japan tops a third of a million vehicles, and it could be months, rather than weeks, before the country's automakers get back on track.
Modern-day cars have as many as 30,000 parts, 70 to 80 percent of which are supplied by hundreds of component makers. A single missing bolt can halt assembly lines and set off a chain reaction in the industry's famed just-in-time manufacturing process.
With some 500 parts firms affected in the quake and tsunami-devastated northeast, cutting off supply of electronic parts, resin-based products and more, Japan's auto industry is especially vulnerable to a ruptured supply chain.
"We're in a stage where we can only hope for an incremental improvement," said Deutsche Securities auto analyst Kurt Sanger, who predicted a return to normal operations would take months.
"'Normal' is a long way away," the Tokyo-based analyst said.
Before the disaster, Japan's $700 billion autos industry was just returning to a mild recovery track following a brutal financial crisis that battered car sales worldwide. Manufacturers were cutting costs and also ramping up overseas production to weather a strong yen.
The March 11 quake damaged a factory of Renesas Electronics Corp., a leading supplier of automotive micro control units. Close to a fifth of global auto production relies on products from its Naka factory, in Ibaraki prefecture, Deutsche Securities estimates.
When a 2007 earthquake damaged a plant at Riken Corp., Japan's top supplier of piston rings, all 12 Japanese car and truck makers were forced into a 3-day shutdown.
In a worst-case scenario, global vehicle output could slump 30 percent within six weeks because of the shortage of auto parts stemming from the Japan quake, research firm IHS Automotive has warned.
"It's a completely unprecedented situation," said UBS auto analyst Tatsuo Yoshida.
Running on empty
Japan's car makers are still building vehicles overseas with whatever stocks they have, but those will soon run out. Toyota Motor Corp. this week notified workers and dealers in North America that output there could slow. Honda Motor Co. says its North American output will likely be disrupted after April 1.
Honda, Mazda Motor Corp., and Nissan Motor Co. have curtailed U.S. dealer orders for models assembled in Japan.
At home, the industry has ground to a virtual halt since the earthquake, and automakers including Toyota, Nissan and Honda have been left to issue almost daily updates on their production plans.
With earnings certain to take a hit and Japanese transport sector stocks slumping 11 percent since the disaster, automakers are reluctant to forecast how long the stoppages could last, saying only that a near-term solution is elusive.
"It's very, very difficult to predict when we will be able to restart production," Nissan spokesman Toshitake Inoshita said.
Some replacement parts and components for vehicles built overseas are being made, but stocks are running low.
"The capability to produce integrated circuits, semi-conductors, LCD displays/films, and sensors is still in question," IHS said in a report released Friday. "This is possibly most important to global OEMs - the downstream effects are beginning to influence volume outside Japan."
In addition, the quake zone is the home of "gear manufacturing, seal systems, clutch components, specialty bearings, and other capital-intensive, application-specific components, for which alternate supply sources are difficult to find," IHS said.
Added to that, automakers face rolling power blackouts, a shortage of fuel to truck goods, and a nuclear crisis that has put some suppliers near the damaged Fukushima complex off-limits, such as Nissan's engine factory in Iwaki, Tochigi.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association has set up a procurement committee to centralize information on parts suppliers, and reduce any duplication of effort.
That may help speed up information-gathering, but won't rebuild damaged factories or deliver substitute parts, analysts said.
"Normalizing operations requires not only repairs at the vehicle assembly plants, but also the restoration of facilities at a wide range of parts suppliers, public service companies, and distributors," Yoshida of UBS said.
Read more: http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20110326/COPY01/303259800/1117/OEM01#ixzz1Hsgagf7o
28/3 2011 10:38 le 0
40648 Manufacturing disruption
resulting from the earthquake in Japan
Fuji Heavy Industries (Subaru)
UPDATED: 9:15 a.m. ET, 3/24/11 U.S.:
• Canceled overtime shifts at Subaru of Indiana (Legacy, Outback, Tribeca and Toyota Camry) until April 1; no parts shortages reported
Japan:
• Suspended vehicle assembly through March 28; facing rolling blackouts and supply shortages
General Motors
UPDATED: 2:55 p.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• Resuming Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon production at Shreveport, La. plant; shortage of undisclosed parts from Japan halted production week of March 21
•59 laid off workers at Tonawanda, N.Y. plant recalled for March 28; plant makes engines for Shreveport
• All nonessential spending and global travel temporarily halted
Europe:
• Production at plants in Spain and Germany (Opel Corsa) halted week of March 21; shortage of undisclosed parts from Japan
Asia:
• Overtime cut at two South Korean factories for week of March 21
Honda Motor Co.
UPDATED: 12:06 a.m. ET, 3/27/11 U.S.:
• Likely disruptions in North American production beginning April 1 because of parts shortages.
• Orders suspended from U.S. dealers for Japan-built models including the Fit, Insight, CR-Z, Civic Hybrid, Acura TSX and Acura RL. Also affected are a small number of CR-Vs
• April U.S. launch of the redesigned 2012 Honda Civic on schedule
Japan:
• Production halted at Sayama (CR-V, Accord, Fit, Acura RL and TSX), Suzuka (Fit, Civic, Civic hybrid, Insight and CR-Z) until April 3 at the earliest;
•Resuming motorcycle and power product production at Kumamoto Factory March 28
• Transfered some product development from closed Tochigi research center to Sayama, Suzuka and Wako; expects several months to reopen center
• Hamamatsu (transmission and engine), Ogawa (engine) and Tochigi (powertrain) plants may begin limited parts production before March 27
Mazda Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 2:08 p.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
•Suspended dealer orders for vehicles made in Japan until further notice; will affect (Mazda2, Mazda3, MX-5, Miata, RX-8, CX-7, CX-9, Mazda5) May allocation for U.S. dealers
Japan:
•Suspended production at Hofu plant (Atenza, Axela) from March 28; had restarted production March 22 with parts in stock
•Hiroshima plant (Bongo, CX-7, CX-9, Demio, Premacy, Roadster, RX-8, Verisa) will operate March 28; will continue some production until supplies run out.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp.
UPDATED: 10:16 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• Assembly plant in Normal, Ill., is running normally; no shortages anticipated
Japan:
•Will operate Mizushima assembly plant (i-MiEV, Lancer, Outlander and more) March 26
• Pajero truck reopened March 25 and will run March 26, too
• Okazaki factory (Colt, Outlander Sport) opened March 25, will close for weekend
• All three plants scheduled to run March 28; expected to run at partial capacity
Nissan Motor Co.
UPDATED: 10:12 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• All Nissan Americas plants (4) open; will continue running through at least April 1
• About 1,300 Infiniti vehicles were damaged in port in Japan en route to the U.S.; expects to make up the inventory loss within months
• Currently studying the potential for Decherd, Tenn. engine plant to supply VQ V-6 engines to Japan to replace lost production from the Iwaki engine plant; no decisions made yet
• Informed dealers March 24 that company will follow normal ordering schedule for May and no processing delays expected
Japan:
• Five plants -- Oppama, Tochigi, Kyushu, Yokohama and Nissan Shatai -- opened March 24 and building vehicles with components in stock; affects the Rogue, Leaf, 350Z and GT-R sports cars and almost all Infiniti models
• Leaf vehicle and battery production resumed at Oppama assembly and Zama battery plants March 24; plants still face rolling blackouts
• Electricity and water restored to damaged Iwaki engine plant; workers to be called back March 28 to help with repairs, but no timeframe for reopening.
Iwaki builds VQ V-6 engine for Infiniti G and M series, Murano and Z350
PSA Peugeot-Citroën
UPDATED: 10:34 a.m. ET, 3/24/11 Europe:
•Reduced production at most European plants from March 23 due to shortage of engine airflow sensor imported from Japan; affects Peugeot 207, Citroën C3, according to Wall Street Journal report
•Cutting production 40 - 50 percent at plants in Madrid and Vigo, Spain; Poissy and Aulnay, France; and Trnava, Slovakia
•Cutting production 75 percent at Sochaux, Sevelnord and Mulhouse, France
•Plants in China, Latin American not affected
Renault Samsung Motors Corp.
UPDATED: 1:50 p.m. ET, 3/22/11 South Korea:
•Stopped weekday overtime as well as weekend shifts
Suzuki Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 10:14 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 Japan:
•Will resume commercial vehicle output March 28 and 29
•Will continue to keep passenger vehicle and SUV lines shuttered for lack of parts
•Suspended output at (3) plants through March 27; affects U.S.-bound Kizashi sedan, Grand Vitara crossover, SX4 small car
•Will continue making engines at its Sagara plant with parts that remain in stock
•Had previously resumed half-day production on March 22 and 23
Toyota Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 10:39 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• North American vehicle and engine plants (13) running; overtime curtailed
• Sent memo to workers in U.S. and Canada March 23, warning thinning supplies will cause some interruptions in production; no definite time frame for stoppages
• Prius availability in the U.S. could be affected by damage to a hybrid battery plant; RAV4 crossover also affected
Japan:
•Will resume limited production of Prius at Tsutsumi plant; Lexus HS250h and CT 200h hybrids at Kyushu plant March 28
• 18 assembly plants closed indefinitely
• Resumed production of replacement parts for vehicles already on the market on March 17; resumed production of parts for overseas production on March 21
• Damaged: The Central Motor plant in Miyagi, which manufactures the Yaris; the Kanto Auto Works Iwate plant, the Scion xB and xD models; parts plants in Hokkaido and Tohoku
•Delayed Japanese launch of wagon-style Prius; not expected to affect U.S. or European launch
Volvo Car Corp.
UPDATED: 10:17 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 Europe:
• Production continues, but with only a 10-day supply of Japan-built navigation and climate control systems, The New York Times reported
• Company says production will continue undisrupted through week of March 28; can't predict beyond that; gets 10 percent of components from Japan
resulting from the earthquake in Japan
Fuji Heavy Industries (Subaru)
UPDATED: 9:15 a.m. ET, 3/24/11 U.S.:
• Canceled overtime shifts at Subaru of Indiana (Legacy, Outback, Tribeca and Toyota Camry) until April 1; no parts shortages reported
Japan:
• Suspended vehicle assembly through March 28; facing rolling blackouts and supply shortages
General Motors
UPDATED: 2:55 p.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• Resuming Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon production at Shreveport, La. plant; shortage of undisclosed parts from Japan halted production week of March 21
•59 laid off workers at Tonawanda, N.Y. plant recalled for March 28; plant makes engines for Shreveport
• All nonessential spending and global travel temporarily halted
Europe:
• Production at plants in Spain and Germany (Opel Corsa) halted week of March 21; shortage of undisclosed parts from Japan
Asia:
• Overtime cut at two South Korean factories for week of March 21
Honda Motor Co.
UPDATED: 12:06 a.m. ET, 3/27/11 U.S.:
• Likely disruptions in North American production beginning April 1 because of parts shortages.
• Orders suspended from U.S. dealers for Japan-built models including the Fit, Insight, CR-Z, Civic Hybrid, Acura TSX and Acura RL. Also affected are a small number of CR-Vs
• April U.S. launch of the redesigned 2012 Honda Civic on schedule
Japan:
• Production halted at Sayama (CR-V, Accord, Fit, Acura RL and TSX), Suzuka (Fit, Civic, Civic hybrid, Insight and CR-Z) until April 3 at the earliest;
•Resuming motorcycle and power product production at Kumamoto Factory March 28
• Transfered some product development from closed Tochigi research center to Sayama, Suzuka and Wako; expects several months to reopen center
• Hamamatsu (transmission and engine), Ogawa (engine) and Tochigi (powertrain) plants may begin limited parts production before March 27
Mazda Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 2:08 p.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
•Suspended dealer orders for vehicles made in Japan until further notice; will affect (Mazda2, Mazda3, MX-5, Miata, RX-8, CX-7, CX-9, Mazda5) May allocation for U.S. dealers
Japan:
•Suspended production at Hofu plant (Atenza, Axela) from March 28; had restarted production March 22 with parts in stock
•Hiroshima plant (Bongo, CX-7, CX-9, Demio, Premacy, Roadster, RX-8, Verisa) will operate March 28; will continue some production until supplies run out.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp.
UPDATED: 10:16 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• Assembly plant in Normal, Ill., is running normally; no shortages anticipated
Japan:
•Will operate Mizushima assembly plant (i-MiEV, Lancer, Outlander and more) March 26
• Pajero truck reopened March 25 and will run March 26, too
• Okazaki factory (Colt, Outlander Sport) opened March 25, will close for weekend
• All three plants scheduled to run March 28; expected to run at partial capacity
Nissan Motor Co.
UPDATED: 10:12 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• All Nissan Americas plants (4) open; will continue running through at least April 1
• About 1,300 Infiniti vehicles were damaged in port in Japan en route to the U.S.; expects to make up the inventory loss within months
• Currently studying the potential for Decherd, Tenn. engine plant to supply VQ V-6 engines to Japan to replace lost production from the Iwaki engine plant; no decisions made yet
• Informed dealers March 24 that company will follow normal ordering schedule for May and no processing delays expected
Japan:
• Five plants -- Oppama, Tochigi, Kyushu, Yokohama and Nissan Shatai -- opened March 24 and building vehicles with components in stock; affects the Rogue, Leaf, 350Z and GT-R sports cars and almost all Infiniti models
• Leaf vehicle and battery production resumed at Oppama assembly and Zama battery plants March 24; plants still face rolling blackouts
• Electricity and water restored to damaged Iwaki engine plant; workers to be called back March 28 to help with repairs, but no timeframe for reopening.
Iwaki builds VQ V-6 engine for Infiniti G and M series, Murano and Z350
PSA Peugeot-Citroën
UPDATED: 10:34 a.m. ET, 3/24/11 Europe:
•Reduced production at most European plants from March 23 due to shortage of engine airflow sensor imported from Japan; affects Peugeot 207, Citroën C3, according to Wall Street Journal report
•Cutting production 40 - 50 percent at plants in Madrid and Vigo, Spain; Poissy and Aulnay, France; and Trnava, Slovakia
•Cutting production 75 percent at Sochaux, Sevelnord and Mulhouse, France
•Plants in China, Latin American not affected
Renault Samsung Motors Corp.
UPDATED: 1:50 p.m. ET, 3/22/11 South Korea:
•Stopped weekday overtime as well as weekend shifts
Suzuki Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 10:14 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 Japan:
•Will resume commercial vehicle output March 28 and 29
•Will continue to keep passenger vehicle and SUV lines shuttered for lack of parts
•Suspended output at (3) plants through March 27; affects U.S.-bound Kizashi sedan, Grand Vitara crossover, SX4 small car
•Will continue making engines at its Sagara plant with parts that remain in stock
•Had previously resumed half-day production on March 22 and 23
Toyota Motor Corp.
UPDATED: 10:39 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 U.S.:
• North American vehicle and engine plants (13) running; overtime curtailed
• Sent memo to workers in U.S. and Canada March 23, warning thinning supplies will cause some interruptions in production; no definite time frame for stoppages
• Prius availability in the U.S. could be affected by damage to a hybrid battery plant; RAV4 crossover also affected
Japan:
•Will resume limited production of Prius at Tsutsumi plant; Lexus HS250h and CT 200h hybrids at Kyushu plant March 28
• 18 assembly plants closed indefinitely
• Resumed production of replacement parts for vehicles already on the market on March 17; resumed production of parts for overseas production on March 21
• Damaged: The Central Motor plant in Miyagi, which manufactures the Yaris; the Kanto Auto Works Iwate plant, the Scion xB and xD models; parts plants in Hokkaido and Tohoku
•Delayed Japanese launch of wagon-style Prius; not expected to affect U.S. or European launch
Volvo Car Corp.
UPDATED: 10:17 a.m. ET, 3/25/11 Europe:
• Production continues, but with only a 10-day supply of Japan-built navigation and climate control systems, The New York Times reported
• Company says production will continue undisrupted through week of March 28; can't predict beyond that; gets 10 percent of components from Japan
28/3 2011 11:41 le 040652 bilprodukion peugeot-citroen
Japan-Katastrophe bremst Peugeot Die Folgen der schweren Katastrophe in Japan führen auch zu erheblichen Lieferengpässen und Produktionsausfällen bei dem Autobauer Peugeot Citroen. Die großen französischen und spanischen Werke liefen nur noch mit halber Kraft.
"Wir haben die Kapazität in den Standorten um 20 bis 60 reduziert, weil uns wichtige Bauteile fehlen", zitiert die Tageszeitung "Die Welt" einen Unternehmenssprecher. Betroffen seien dadurch auch Kunden in Deutschland, denn sie müssten nun mit längeren Lieferzeiten rechnen. Das gelte auch für bereits bestellte Autos.
Autobauer spüren Folgen
Durch Erdbeben, Tsunami und die befürchtete Atomkatastrophe in Japan stand die Produktion in Teilen der Industrie auf der Insel tagelang still. Einige Gebäude der Unternehmen waren schwer beschädigt, es fehlte Strom und die Lieferwege waren unterbrochen. Die Auswirkungen der Krise waren bis nach Europa und den USA zu spüren. So musste beispielsweise Opel am Montag im Werk Eisenach zwei Schichten ausfallen lassen, weil Elektronikkomponenten aus Japan fehlten.
Japan-Katastrophe bremst Peugeot Die Folgen der schweren Katastrophe in Japan führen auch zu erheblichen Lieferengpässen und Produktionsausfällen bei dem Autobauer Peugeot Citroen. Die großen französischen und spanischen Werke liefen nur noch mit halber Kraft.
"Wir haben die Kapazität in den Standorten um 20 bis 60 reduziert, weil uns wichtige Bauteile fehlen", zitiert die Tageszeitung "Die Welt" einen Unternehmenssprecher. Betroffen seien dadurch auch Kunden in Deutschland, denn sie müssten nun mit längeren Lieferzeiten rechnen. Das gelte auch für bereits bestellte Autos.
Autobauer spüren Folgen
Durch Erdbeben, Tsunami und die befürchtete Atomkatastrophe in Japan stand die Produktion in Teilen der Industrie auf der Insel tagelang still. Einige Gebäude der Unternehmen waren schwer beschädigt, es fehlte Strom und die Lieferwege waren unterbrochen. Die Auswirkungen der Krise waren bis nach Europa und den USA zu spüren. So musste beispielsweise Opel am Montag im Werk Eisenach zwei Schichten ausfallen lassen, weil Elektronikkomponenten aus Japan fehlten.
28/3 2011 11:49 Nippon1976 040654 Hej Le
Det du mener er, at man skal finde små eller mellemstore virksomheder, der leverer dele til de helt store spillere.
investerer i nogen af dem, der er faldet mest og så regne med at de gab, der er lavet bliver lukket i måske en tidshorisont på 2-6 mrd.?
Du snakkede den anden dag om op til 300%, hvordan kommer du frem til det og over hvilket tidshorisont?
Er det de bedste af dem, der har muligheden for at øge deres produktion og dermed så stiger eller er det over en bred kam du mener at sektoren vil stige så meget?
Det du mener er, at man skal finde små eller mellemstore virksomheder, der leverer dele til de helt store spillere.
investerer i nogen af dem, der er faldet mest og så regne med at de gab, der er lavet bliver lukket i måske en tidshorisont på 2-6 mrd.?
Du snakkede den anden dag om op til 300%, hvordan kommer du frem til det og over hvilket tidshorisont?
Er det de bedste af dem, der har muligheden for at øge deres produktion og dermed så stiger eller er det over en bred kam du mener at sektoren vil stige så meget?
28/3 2011 12:10 le 040656 det er over en bred kam, over 2-3 år, måske mere, men denne stigning er mest de små machine tools - ikke de store også kun ca 100%, bilkomponenter betydeligt mindre, men dog potentialer på omkring 100%
28/3 2011 12:13 le 040657 potentialerne kan man finde ud af ved at kigge historiske charts over de sidste 10 år, de er let tilgængelige på yahoo japan eller charts over 10-30 år, men de er ikke så nemme at finde, men dem har jeg i hukommelsen
28/3 2011 14:05 le 040661 det kan du heller ikke, men du kan oprette dig på yahoo japan og ellers tokyo stock exchange
28/3 2011 14:07 Nippon1976 040664 takker for hurtigt svar.... Jeg vil lige prøve at kikke på det....
