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MOSCOW - An ominous Russian state study warned the government Tuesday that it faced a light crude oil shortage that meant it could only sustain its world-topping production rates for another 15 years.
The annual ministry of natural resources survey painted a bleak Russian energy picture that also pointed to problems in future export rates of natural gas -- the domain of its largest and most important company Gazprom.
But most of the problems focused on oil and its deteriorating and diminishing quality in Russia´s Soviet-era wells.
The detailed study said Russia was tapping its existing light crude reserves in western Siberia at alarming rates while failing to replace them with new finds in regions that sit further away from the industrial heartland.
The ministry concluded that oil quality was deteriorating steadily as a result and Russia could only sustain current annual production rates of 500 million tonnes for another 13 to 15 years.
"Russia has less than 30 percent of oil that ´flows´ -- the remaining 70 percent is very heavy, viscous and hard-to-recover," said the survey while pointing to some western Siberian fields that stood more than two-thirds empty.
It added that most of the crude being produced now was of the light variety demanded on the world market -- meaning that more and more of what Russia had left over demanded extra amounts of processing.
Top government officials have spent years warning about too little money being invested in the development of untapped reserves in far-flung regions of eastern Siberia.
Oil companies have lobbied in favour of state policies that introduce tax breaks on firms that export from newly discovered locations and invest in geological survey work.
But the latest government findings show investment in new oil exploration declining by 40 percent and actual work going down nearly 50 percent.
The ministry also noted that the work being done in new locations was disappointing and discovering only small traces of oil.
"So far, the expectations are not being fulfilled," the Russian natural resource ministry said.
It further urged the government to introduce a more open licensing system that would offer private companies easier terms for oil exploration and a new tax breaks programme for field development work.
Russia regained the world´s top oil production ranking in the past decade and has been the world´s top natural gas exporter throughout the post-Soviet era.
But the latest study warned that even this lead was not safe because the world was switching to liquefied natural gas consumption while the United States and Canada were also pushing ahead with the development of shale gas.
Gazprom has been forced to temporarily stall the development of its Shtokman field in the Barents Sea after discovering the United States was no longer willing to import its expected supplies.
The state-run giant also reported a drop in European sales last year and the Russian ministry warned that further complications for Gazprom were likely.
"European consumers are increasing their liquefied gas purchases, seeking to at least partially replace the Russian pipeline supplies," said the survey.
"This trend is irreversible," it starkly noted.
The ministry observed that the new European policy could endanger Russia´s planned South Stream and North Stream pipelines -- two projects designed specifically for European markets.
Many Russian regions are running short of gasoline and diesel fuel, with the situation threatening to deteriorate soon into a complete drought in some areas as oil companies cash in on higher fuel prices abroad, the Russian Fuel Union warned on Tuesday.
"If the situation persists, many regions may be left without fuel altogether in the next few days," said RFU President Evgeny Arkusha, whose organization represents fuel retailers.
The situation is at its worst in the St Petersburg, Voronezh, Novosibirsk and Altai regions as well as the Sakhalin island, he said.
Prices for oil and oil products have risen sharply on foreign markets recently against the background of events in the Middle East, but the Russian government has held local prices back making export more attractive, Sergei Vakhrameyev, a senior analyst with Metropol brokerage, explained.
"Oil producers have started exporting more oil products, which has finally resulted in a fuel deficit on the domestic market," he said.
Fuel retailers agree. "Administrative interference in the industry must ... be removed," said Arkusha of the RFU.
In February, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning over fuel prices and vowed increased oversight of the fuel business.
"This may be one of the kinds of cartel agreement for which the antimonopoly legislation includes criminal responsibility as a measure of last resort," Federal Antimonopoly Service head Igor Artemyev said in a statement after a Monday meeting with fuel unions.
Kommersant business daily said most independent gasoline stations in the Altai region in southern Siberia had ceased operations this weekend, while working stations had hiked prices 20 percent. Rosneft was only selling 20 liters of gasoline per car, it said.
The Altai branch of the FAS launched a suit against Rosneft and Gazprom Neft on Tuesday on suspicion of price collusion.
Rosneft said it had not cut supplies to the Altai region in March and April and would send more fuel to the region.
"The situation is caused primarily by lower supplies by other oil companies and independent traders," it said.
The situation has been exacerbated by the fact that the sowing season is near, prompting strong demand for diesel for agricultural vehicles like tractors. Russia desperately needs a good harvest this year if it wants to hit the government´s inflation target of 6-7 percent and lift the grain export ban it introduced after last year´s unprecedented drought.
Arkusha, who is also president of the Moscow Fuel Association, said the fuel shortage was approaching Moscow and the region, although the situation was not yet critical.
"I want to stress, one can feel signs of fuel deficit," he said, but said a repetition of the Altai situation was impossible in Moscow.
He said that Moscow´s key suppliers, the Ryazan and Yaroslavl refineries had cut output, while the Moscow refinery was jammed with tankers awaiting deliveries.
Sergei Zakursky, co-owner of a filling station network in the city of Tomsk in Siberia said regional stations only had a three or four day reserve of fuel.
"Our source of gasoline is running low. I think there will be gasoline later, but it will come in in small portions," he said.
Oleg Ashimkhin, head of the St Petersburg Oil Club, said the northern capital may encounter a fuel deficit in a week or so.
"Today wholesale prices equal those at filling stations, while demand is exceeding supply. Even if you have money, there is no place to buy fuel," Ashimkhin said, adding that 45 percent of stations in the city were private and faced serious problems. "Not a single oil company is selling fuel to them."
Investcafe analyst Grigory Birg said supplies would stabilize in a month or two.
"If necessary, the government may get involved in resolving the problem," he said.
"Rosneft has decided today to supply more diesel fuel and gasoline to the Altai. I think other companies will follow suit."
MOSCOW, April 26 (RIA Novosti)
det er rigtigt at 'peak oil' problematikkene r en kendsgerning:
1. faldende produktion og kvalitet i gamle felter
2. nye felter kan ikke æge produktione så hurtigt somd e falder id e gamle felter
3. vedvarende stigninger i det globale olieforbrug baseret på stigende bestande af biler, lastbiler, flyvemaskiner, skibe, tog og diverse construction/mining maskiner især i de hurtigt voksende emerging markets
og det er ikke kun rusland, der har det problem
og der er ikke en hurtig løsning til at skifte de nævnte sektorer over på andre energikilder, electric vehicles er en joke og forestille sig at en flyvemaskine eller et skib skulle kunne drives frem af vind eller sol kraft er nok lidt latterligt i mange år frem
1. faldende produktion og kvalitet i gamle felter
2. nye felter kan ikke æge produktione så hurtigt somd e falder id e gamle felter
3. vedvarende stigninger i det globale olieforbrug baseret på stigende bestande af biler, lastbiler, flyvemaskiner, skibe, tog og diverse construction/mining maskiner især i de hurtigt voksende emerging markets
og det er ikke kun rusland, der har det problem
og der er ikke en hurtig løsning til at skifte de nævnte sektorer over på andre energikilder, electric vehicles er en joke og forestille sig at en flyvemaskine eller et skib skulle kunne drives frem af vind eller sol kraft er nok lidt latterligt i mange år frem
