CENTER FOR ENERGY POLICY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
AT THE MANHATTAN INSTITUTE
har netop udgivet rapporten
THE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES OF SHALEENERGY DEVELOPMENT
http://www.scribd.com/doc/57297330/Revised-Tconsidine-Frac-Report-Embargoed-Copy-1
Executive Summary:
Directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have unlocked vast new reserves of natural gas in the United States. Devel-opment of these resources is now well under way in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Unlike their neighbors to the south,however, New York residents are not directly benefiting from natural gas development as the result of a government-imposed moratorium, itself a response to environmental concerns surrounding hydraulic fracturing. This study analyzesthe economic and environmental impacts of shale gas drilling in New York and finds the net economic benefits to besignificantly positive. Specifically:• An end to the moratorium would spur over $11.4 billion in economic output.• Some 15,000 to 18,000 jobs could be created in the Southern Tier and Western New York, regions which lost acombined 48,000 payroll jobs between 2000 and 2010.*• Another 75,000 to 90,000 jobs could be created if the area of exploration and drilling were expanded to includethe Utica shale and southeastern New York, including the New York City watershed. (This assumes a regulatoryregime that protects the water supply but permits drilling to continue.)• Localities and the state stand to reap $1.4 billion in tax revenues if the moratorium is allowed to expire.This study also reviews the public records of environmental violations reported by the Pennsylvania Department of Envi-ronmental Protection over the period 2008-10. It then quantifies the impact of these violations on land, water, and airresources. The costs of these environmental impacts are then estimated on the basis of the value of the environmentalamenities at stake. Our main finding is that the cost of these environmental impacts is far smaller than the economicbenefits that drilling can provide.• The typical Marcellus shale gas well generates about $4 million in economic benefits.• The economic damage resulting from the environmental impacts of a typical shale gas well comes to $14,000.The expected environmental costs are so low because the probability of an environmental event is small, and those thatdo occur are minor and localized in their effects.Those environmental problems that have arisen in connection with hydraulic fracturing in no way call into questionthe soundness of that procedure. In reality, they result from improper drilling and well-casing technique and defectiveformulation of cement. Such errors and flaws allow wells to penetrate shallow gas deposits, permitting the gas withinthem to escape and enter groundwater supplies. Marcellus gas resides far below these deposits and any aquifers. Morestringent design standards should be adopted, and more active regulatory oversight should be exercised. These stepswould reduce the incidence of such problems.Our findings suggest that the current shale gas drilling moratorium imposes a significant and needless burden on theNew York State economy. In short, the economic benefits of developing shale gas resources in New York State areenormous and could be growing, while the environmental costs of doing so are small and could be diminishing if themoratorium is lifted and if proper policies are put into place.
*Based on third quarter data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, maintained by the New York State Department of Labor.Posted at http://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/lsqcew.shtm.
MEN
samtidig har NY Assembly endnu engang vedtaget et moratorium til juli 2012. Som sidst skal det dog også igennem senatet, der nu har republikansk flertal. Så det sker næppe i den nuværende form, hvor det er stop også for små opsprækninger.
http://www.marcellusfacts.com/blog/job-killing-moratorium-passes-assembly-again
Aktuel udmelding for draft2 til SGEIS er (1.)juli. Så følger der mindst 30 dages høringsperiode. Behandlingstid uklar og tilladelser vil tage lidt tid efter SGEIS, hvorfor vi alligevel kan være fremme i 2012.
På trods af Assembly virker det på mig som om den politiske strømning på det seneste har vendt mere til fordel for gasudvinding i NY og jeg tror at betingelserne kommer til at ligge tæt op ad det, der kommer i draft2. I forhold til draft1 venter jeg skærpelser på inddækning øverst i borehuller, opbevaring og genindvinding af opsprækningsvandet, større åbenhed (for myndigheder) omkring indholdet af vandet og let øgede afstandskrav. Alt i alt forhold som måske øger omkostninger 10-20%, men åbner op.
