Som tidligere nævnt så er jeg bull på solaktier. Jeg har siddet og lavet lidt analyser yderligere opkøb med mulige targets.
Canadian Solar
Symetrisk triangle
Køb ved 9,9
Target 12,9
Daqo new energy
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens MACD
Køb ved luk over 6,85 eller SMA20
Target 7,6
First Solar
Symetisk triangle
Køb ved luk over 126
Target 142-145
GT Solar
Symetrisk triangle samt bunden af stigende trend
Køb ved 14,2-14,5
Target ca. 18,3 eller toppen er trendlinjen
JA Solar
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens
Køb ved luk over 4,9
Target 6,15
LDK Solar
Symetrisk triangle med stang (bearish)
Køb ved luk over 7,25
Target 50% ved 8,15 og 50% 8,6
REC
Falling wedge
Købe ved brud af toplinje
Target 15,2-16,7
Trina Solar
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens
Køb ved luk over 19
Target 22,4-23,2
Yingli
Falling wedge
Køb ved luk over 7,7
Target 9,85 (9,15)
Canadian Solar
Symetrisk triangle
Køb ved 9,9
Target 12,9
Daqo new energy
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens MACD
Køb ved luk over 6,85 eller SMA20
Target 7,6
First Solar
Symetisk triangle
Køb ved luk over 126
Target 142-145
GT Solar
Symetrisk triangle samt bunden af stigende trend
Køb ved 14,2-14,5
Target ca. 18,3 eller toppen er trendlinjen
JA Solar
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens
Køb ved luk over 4,9
Target 6,15
LDK Solar
Symetrisk triangle med stang (bearish)
Køb ved luk over 7,25
Target 50% ved 8,15 og 50% 8,6
REC
Falling wedge
Købe ved brud af toplinje
Target 15,2-16,7
Trina Solar
Falling wedge
Bullish divergens
Køb ved luk over 19
Target 22,4-23,2
Yingli
Falling wedge
Køb ved luk over 7,7
Target 9,85 (9,15)
jeg synes bestemt der er Value argumenter for at købe solar pga
1. de store fald i aktiekurserne
2. sikkerheden om at på lang sigt vil det være en vækstbranche
men på kort sigt ville jeg ikke bruge udtrykket bullish, da der som bekendt er stor overkapacitet med en alt for stor vækst i kapaciteten, faldende priser og fald i efterspørgslen især i europa pga reducerede subsidier og generel usikkerhed i sektoren og altså ikke nogen klar positiv trend i en mulig kommende opgang i efterspørgslen udover kapacitetsvæksten på et senere tidspunkt
iøvrigt overvejde jeg for et års tids siden at analysere sol aktierne mere fordi de var faldet meget, men det gjorde jeg så ikke og købte heller ikke noget og de faldt markant yderligere, det kunne jo godt ske igen at de fortsætter med at falde
1. de store fald i aktiekurserne
2. sikkerheden om at på lang sigt vil det være en vækstbranche
men på kort sigt ville jeg ikke bruge udtrykket bullish, da der som bekendt er stor overkapacitet med en alt for stor vækst i kapaciteten, faldende priser og fald i efterspørgslen især i europa pga reducerede subsidier og generel usikkerhed i sektoren og altså ikke nogen klar positiv trend i en mulig kommende opgang i efterspørgslen udover kapacitetsvæksten på et senere tidspunkt
iøvrigt overvejde jeg for et års tids siden at analysere sol aktierne mere fordi de var faldet meget, men det gjorde jeg så ikke og købte heller ikke noget og de faldt markant yderligere, det kunne jo godt ske igen at de fortsætter med at falde
man skal huske at en del af de aktier du nævner er kinesiske, og kinesiske aktier generelt har været inde i et ret stærkt fald det sidste årstid, så din bullishness skal nok mere ses ud fra en analyse om de kinesiske aktier generelt er ved at vende opad igen
og det er der mange argumenter for:
1. aktierne er faldet pga overophedning og inflation med efterfølgende rentestigninger og kreditstramninger
2. væksten er faldet lidt tilbage, men er stadig høj
3. inflationen ser ud til at toppe pga stabilitet i råvarepriserne med små fald fra toppen
4. markedet forventer snart at renten ikke vil stige mere, så opbremsningsmanøvren er ved at slutte og det kan få aktierne generelt til at stige fordi væksten som sagt stadig er høj og der ikke er risiko for det dommedagsscenarie mange taler om at kina er en ny boble, hvilket er noget rent sludder
og det er der mange argumenter for:
1. aktierne er faldet pga overophedning og inflation med efterfølgende rentestigninger og kreditstramninger
2. væksten er faldet lidt tilbage, men er stadig høj
3. inflationen ser ud til at toppe pga stabilitet i råvarepriserne med små fald fra toppen
4. markedet forventer snart at renten ikke vil stige mere, så opbremsningsmanøvren er ved at slutte og det kan få aktierne generelt til at stige fordi væksten som sagt stadig er høj og der ikke er risiko for det dommedagsscenarie mange taler om at kina er en ny boble, hvilket er noget rent sludder
27/7 2011 05:14 le 0
44353 Strong 2010 Europe PV market growth of 169% set to give way to 14% contraction
in 2011, says Solarbuzz
det var da godt at jeg ikke købte solar aktier
spørgsmålet er hvornår man skulle begynde at købe dem efter de seneste fald
22 July 2011]
Rapidly falling prices in first half of 2011 have been unable to stimulate the
faltering PV market in Europe, according to the latest Solarbuzz report. Signs
of a strengthening market in June 2011 were hit by cancellation of the
anticipated mid-year incentive tariff reductions in Germany.
"For the past decade, Europe has played a dominant role in creating the demand
growth that has fueled global manufacturing capacity expansion," noted Alan
Turner, vice president of European Market Research for Solarbuzz."This was
underpinned by aggressive, uncapped feed-in tariff (FIT) programs that are now
being scaled back to reduce costs. Policy adjustments are becoming more
frequent, creating uncertainty for investors in PV systems."
The downturn in Europe's major markets in first half of 2011 left module
shipments from manufacturers running well ahead of end-market demand. The
resulting increase in downstream inventories quickly Spread to the upstream,
causing production plans to be reined in. Desperate to stimulate growth,
crystalline silicon module price offers from manufacturers have reached new lows
of EUR0.75-1.00/W (US$1.08-1.44/W).
Market growth of 169% across Europe in 2010 was led by three countries: Germany,
Italy and the Czech Republic. Each country delivered gigawatt-scale markets and,
combined, represented 89% of Europe's demand. Italy's market share is forecast
to rise from 32% in 2010 to 39% in 2015 to become the largest market in Europe,
while the combined share of the two largest markets, Italy and Germany, is
forecast to fall to 71% in 2015 from 80% in 2010.
Growth of the market in Italy in 2010 came despite installed system prices up to
33% higher than in Germany, depending on system size. Even with high prices,
solar PV project's internal rate of return (IRR) up to 20% could still be
realized, a clear indicator both of the generous level of incentive tariff rates
and the headroom for future tariff reductions.
France, Spain, Belgium and Greece constituted a strong second-tier of markets in
the 100-1000MW size range in 2010. Here, forecast project IRR will generally
meet or exceed customer expectations in most major market segments in 2011.
However, by 2012, only in Greece will this be the case for large ground-mounted
installations. Smaller markets offering growth potential include Slovakia,
Bulgaria, Ukraine and the UK.
Based on an assessment of countries over the next 18 months, incentive tariffs
for residential systems are set to fall by at least an average 17%, with
commercial roof-mounted systems of 100kW falling by 23% and ground-mounted 1MW
installations falling by 34%. Residential tariffs in Greece and the UK show the
least reduction among the major markets in Europe through 2012, according to
current policy plans, while tariffs for large ground-mounted systems fall to the
lowest levels in Belgium, Spain and France.
Over the next five years, customer segmentation changes across Europe will see
the residential segment double its share. In addition, investor groups' share
will fall by almost half, while commercial (including agricultural) customers
remain the dominant market segment.
By June 2011, average distributor prices for crystalline silicon modules from
China-based producers had fallen to an average EUR1.28/W. This is 20% down from
average distributor prices of EUR1.60/W at the end of 2010, following relatively
stable pricing through 2010 with a slight upturn during the second half of the
year. By contrast, their counterparts in Europe and Japan saw prices start to
decline in July 2010 and have continued ever since, reducing their price
premiums of 20-25% for most of first quarter 2010 to 10-15% for most of first
quarter 2011.
Module sales in 2010 were split 38% from manufacturers/brokers to installers,
37% via the wholesaler channel and 25% direct.
Tightening of PV incentive policies across Europe is creating an extremely
challenging time for downstream companies. Many are now facing over-valued
inventories, weaker sales and potential cash flow problems.
Longer term, major regulatory challenges lie ahead before grid parity can
stimulate self-sustaining markets, despite fast reducing solar electricity
costs. Over the short term, utilities in Germany are concerned that PV
generation capacity is creating unacceptable risks for its overall grid
stability. As a result, utilities are placing intense focus on electricity
storage and smart-metering technology, which will add costs, complexity and
cause delays to PV deployments.
in 2011, says Solarbuzz
det var da godt at jeg ikke købte solar aktier
spørgsmålet er hvornår man skulle begynde at købe dem efter de seneste fald
22 July 2011]
Rapidly falling prices in first half of 2011 have been unable to stimulate the
faltering PV market in Europe, according to the latest Solarbuzz report. Signs
of a strengthening market in June 2011 were hit by cancellation of the
anticipated mid-year incentive tariff reductions in Germany.
"For the past decade, Europe has played a dominant role in creating the demand
growth that has fueled global manufacturing capacity expansion," noted Alan
Turner, vice president of European Market Research for Solarbuzz."This was
underpinned by aggressive, uncapped feed-in tariff (FIT) programs that are now
being scaled back to reduce costs. Policy adjustments are becoming more
frequent, creating uncertainty for investors in PV systems."
The downturn in Europe's major markets in first half of 2011 left module
shipments from manufacturers running well ahead of end-market demand. The
resulting increase in downstream inventories quickly Spread to the upstream,
causing production plans to be reined in. Desperate to stimulate growth,
crystalline silicon module price offers from manufacturers have reached new lows
of EUR0.75-1.00/W (US$1.08-1.44/W).
Market growth of 169% across Europe in 2010 was led by three countries: Germany,
Italy and the Czech Republic. Each country delivered gigawatt-scale markets and,
combined, represented 89% of Europe's demand. Italy's market share is forecast
to rise from 32% in 2010 to 39% in 2015 to become the largest market in Europe,
while the combined share of the two largest markets, Italy and Germany, is
forecast to fall to 71% in 2015 from 80% in 2010.
Growth of the market in Italy in 2010 came despite installed system prices up to
33% higher than in Germany, depending on system size. Even with high prices,
solar PV project's internal rate of return (IRR) up to 20% could still be
realized, a clear indicator both of the generous level of incentive tariff rates
and the headroom for future tariff reductions.
France, Spain, Belgium and Greece constituted a strong second-tier of markets in
the 100-1000MW size range in 2010. Here, forecast project IRR will generally
meet or exceed customer expectations in most major market segments in 2011.
However, by 2012, only in Greece will this be the case for large ground-mounted
installations. Smaller markets offering growth potential include Slovakia,
Bulgaria, Ukraine and the UK.
Based on an assessment of countries over the next 18 months, incentive tariffs
for residential systems are set to fall by at least an average 17%, with
commercial roof-mounted systems of 100kW falling by 23% and ground-mounted 1MW
installations falling by 34%. Residential tariffs in Greece and the UK show the
least reduction among the major markets in Europe through 2012, according to
current policy plans, while tariffs for large ground-mounted systems fall to the
lowest levels in Belgium, Spain and France.
Over the next five years, customer segmentation changes across Europe will see
the residential segment double its share. In addition, investor groups' share
will fall by almost half, while commercial (including agricultural) customers
remain the dominant market segment.
By June 2011, average distributor prices for crystalline silicon modules from
China-based producers had fallen to an average EUR1.28/W. This is 20% down from
average distributor prices of EUR1.60/W at the end of 2010, following relatively
stable pricing through 2010 with a slight upturn during the second half of the
year. By contrast, their counterparts in Europe and Japan saw prices start to
decline in July 2010 and have continued ever since, reducing their price
premiums of 20-25% for most of first quarter 2010 to 10-15% for most of first
quarter 2011.
Module sales in 2010 were split 38% from manufacturers/brokers to installers,
37% via the wholesaler channel and 25% direct.
Tightening of PV incentive policies across Europe is creating an extremely
challenging time for downstream companies. Many are now facing over-valued
inventories, weaker sales and potential cash flow problems.
Longer term, major regulatory challenges lie ahead before grid parity can
stimulate self-sustaining markets, despite fast reducing solar electricity
costs. Over the short term, utilities in Germany are concerned that PV
generation capacity is creating unacceptable risks for its overall grid
stability. As a result, utilities are placing intense focus on electricity
storage and smart-metering technology, which will add costs, complexity and
cause delays to PV deployments.
27/7 2011 05:18 le 044354 solar 11 07 02
Global PV module inventories to end 2Q11 at 8.6 GW, says Solarbuzz
1 July 2011]
Weak European photovoltaic (PV) market demand in the first half of 2011 caused
global solar module inventories to soar at the end of second quarter 2011,
according to Solarbuzz.
Initial estimates from Solarbuzz show that second quarter shipments fell by 22%
on quarter compared to the increase of 12% projected by manufacturers during the
quarter. Even with demand rising 79% on quarter and production falling an
estimated 20%, quarterly cell and module inventories still increased by 559 MW.
Inventories are now forecast to reach a record 8.6 GW by the end of second
quarter 2011, with upstream inventories showing a sharp 36% increase over the
quarter, in contrast to a small reduction in the downstream. This excess supply
caused factory-gate module prices to drop by 9% in Europe in second quarter and
16% since the start of the year.
"Recent price reductions from tier 2 Asian manufacturers will place enormous
pressure on others to follow suit," said Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz.
"Even with significant cutbacks in production and shipments, fourth quarter
factory-gate module prices are still projected to fall 25% on year."
The PV industry is braced for a challenging second half of 2011. PV
manufacturers' bullish stance that sustained production and shipments will grow
to reach supply levels that are 1.4-1.7 times larger than 2010 contrasts with
the forecast that the end-market will grow only 5%. The revised global PV market
size of 19.3 GW for 2010 is now projected to increase to just 20.3 GW in 2011.
Many producers now anticipate that lower prices will generate the demand
increment in second half of 2011. However, chances for that depend on downstream
inventories falling fast and on resolving the policy uncertainties in Europe
that have characterized first half of 2011. Rather than further procurement,
most downstream companies are currently focused on reducing inventories in order
to avoid write-offs emanating from the collapse in prices.
"Maintaining an accurate and timely picture of both company shipments and the
global balance of supply and demand in the industry will be key to ensuring
inventories are managed effectively over the second half of the year," added
Stevens.
Global PV module inventories to end 2Q11 at 8.6 GW, says Solarbuzz
1 July 2011]
Weak European photovoltaic (PV) market demand in the first half of 2011 caused
global solar module inventories to soar at the end of second quarter 2011,
according to Solarbuzz.
Initial estimates from Solarbuzz show that second quarter shipments fell by 22%
on quarter compared to the increase of 12% projected by manufacturers during the
quarter. Even with demand rising 79% on quarter and production falling an
estimated 20%, quarterly cell and module inventories still increased by 559 MW.
Inventories are now forecast to reach a record 8.6 GW by the end of second
quarter 2011, with upstream inventories showing a sharp 36% increase over the
quarter, in contrast to a small reduction in the downstream. This excess supply
caused factory-gate module prices to drop by 9% in Europe in second quarter and
16% since the start of the year.
"Recent price reductions from tier 2 Asian manufacturers will place enormous
pressure on others to follow suit," said Craig Stevens, president of Solarbuzz.
"Even with significant cutbacks in production and shipments, fourth quarter
factory-gate module prices are still projected to fall 25% on year."
The PV industry is braced for a challenging second half of 2011. PV
manufacturers' bullish stance that sustained production and shipments will grow
to reach supply levels that are 1.4-1.7 times larger than 2010 contrasts with
the forecast that the end-market will grow only 5%. The revised global PV market
size of 19.3 GW for 2010 is now projected to increase to just 20.3 GW in 2011.
Many producers now anticipate that lower prices will generate the demand
increment in second half of 2011. However, chances for that depend on downstream
inventories falling fast and on resolving the policy uncertainties in Europe
that have characterized first half of 2011. Rather than further procurement,
most downstream companies are currently focused on reducing inventories in order
to avoid write-offs emanating from the collapse in prices.
"Maintaining an accurate and timely picture of both company shipments and the
global balance of supply and demand in the industry will be key to ensuring
inventories are managed effectively over the second half of the year," added
Stevens.
27/7 2011 07:52 Nippon1976 044362 Specielt PV-markedet er presset og jeg ved godt at afregningspriserne i spanien, samt et generelt fald har været medårsag til fald. Bullish er måske også et forstærkt udtryk. Min opmærksomhed er skærpet, da der er nogle tegn på at sektoren er ved at få momentum. Bl.a REC stor stigning. Jeg venter og ser om de enkelte aktier får monemtum før jeg køber, da der selvfølge, specielt på den korte bane ikke er nogen tvivl om, at hvis de store index falder, så falder solaktierne med.
27/7 2011 07:58 Kristensen 044364 D. 12 juli havde TSL noget der ligner en rekord høj volumen. Det var vist samme dag en af deres revisorer smuttede. Dog har volumen været støt faldende siden. Men var det Smart Money der gik ind her?
Alt andet lige vil nedslag i subsidier vel gavne Trina Solar, der er lavpris varianten?
28/7 2011 15:12 Nippon1976 044454 Ser ikke ud til at de kan holde moment, så vil ud igen. Prøver at afvente og satser på exit omkring sma20
28/7 2011 18:12 Nippon1976 044459 Jeg ville vente til de bryder ud af wedgen. Jeg køber ikke aktier nogen aktier næste 3 uger.
31/7 2011 06:41 le 044483 jeg ville vente
After dismal 2nd-qtr, solar outlook brightens
inShare.1Share thisEmailPrintRelated NewsChevron profit jumps with oil, output growth slow
Fri, Jul 29 2011
UPDATE 4-Anglo American sees strong end to 2011 after H1 miss
Fri, Jul 29 2011
Samsung profit outlook weakens on chips, mobiles strong
Fri, Jul 29 2011
Thomson Reuters margins rise; CEO seeks to reassure
Thu, Jul 28 2011
UPDATE 4-Potash Corp profit jumps 75 pct; boosts outlook
Thu, Jul 28 2011Analysis & OpinionTech wrap: Now in your Twitter stream - ads
Will power lines become white elephants?
Related TopicsStocks »
Markets »
Energy »
Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:07pm EDT
(Corrects First Solar earnings date in paragraph 9)
* Solar market likely bottomed in second quarter
* Module prices have slid about 25 percent this year
* Price declines will spur demand in second half of 2011
By Nichola Groom and Christoph Steitz
LOS ANGELES/FRANKFURT, July 29 (Reuters) - Solar investors should brace themselves for some downright dreadful second-quarter earnings reports in the coming weeks, though the rest of the year may provide some relief to battered solar stocks as panel prices stabilize and profit margins recover.
The solar market likely bottomed in the second quarter after pullbacks in subsidies in No. 2 solar market Italy stalled development of projects there this spring, creating an oversupply of solar panels in the market and sparking a more than 20 percent drop in prices.
"It's going to be probably the most challenging quarter we've seen in the space since the financial crisis," Kaufman Bros analyst Jeff Bencik said. "Volumes are starting to pick back up, but we have pricing declines of 25 to 30 percent across the supply chain."
Solar power relies on government subsidies to compete with electricity generated by fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. In general, drops in the price of solar power are a good thing for the subsidy-dependent industry -- but manufacturers struggle if they can't cut costs at a similar rate.
Solar modules cost about $1.80 per watt in the first quarter, and are now selling for $1.40 per watt or less.
That drop has taken a big toll on manufacturers' profit margins and sent their stocks into a tailspin.
To see an interactive graphic comparing solar companies, click here: r.reuters.com/vej82s
Gross margins for photovoltaic module manufacturers have fallen by 25 percent in the last six months, according to research firm IMS Research.
The solar earnings season will kick off in earnest with reports from U.S. wafer maker MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR.N) and U.S. solar manufacturing equipment maker GT Solar (SOLR.O) on Aug. 3, followed by the world's most valuable solar company, First Solar Inc (FSLR.O), a day later.
Many German solar companies, including SolarWorld (SWVG.DE), Centrotherm (CTNG.DE), Phoenix Solar (PS4G.DE) and SMA Solar (S92G.DE), are scheduled to release results the week of Aug. 8.
But some big solar players -- including U.S.-based SunPower Corp (SPWRA.O) and China's Renesola Ltd (SOL.N) -- have already warned of weak results in the second quarter. [ID:nN1E76O1PL] [ID:nL3E7IC1IT]
Germany's Q-Cells SE(QCEG.DE), which will report results August 12, has also said that demand remained weak during the second three months of the year, while Norway's Renewable Energy Corporation (REC.OL) last week was hit by a $1.16 billion impairment, due to under-used factories. [ID:nFAB016116] [ID:nLDE76H0J3]
The industry turmoil has also weighed on share prices. The MAC Solar Energy index .SUNIDX is down 27 percent since the beginning of the second quarter.
Many expect solar companies' fortunes to improve in the second half of the year as lower prices on panels unleash a new wave of demand.
Solar inverter maker Power-One, for instance, said on Thursday that its sales in the third quarter would benefit from increased sales to rising markets in North America and Asia as well as an improved market in Germany.[ID:nN1E76R1UA]
SunPower's announcement this week also indicated that demand was strong, as the company said its revenue would be at the high end of a previously forecasted range, despite contracting margins.
Increased demand should help stem the rapid drop in prices that has crippled the industry in recent months.
"A lot of companies are seeing volume increases, which is the good news," said Jon Sigurdsen, fund manager at DnB NOR unit Carlson in Oslo. "Very recently a lot of companies have said prices are stabilizing."
Overall, outlooks for the rest of the year should be positive, analysts said, but warned about another round of subsidy cuts in 2012.
"The next cut in feed-in tariffs in January 2012 is just around the corner," said Michael Tappeiner, an analyst at Unicredit in Munich. "It'll remain very tight for the sector overall."
The question is whether investors will dive into the beaten down sector and pick up solar stocks at bargain prices now that the worst of 2011 is over.
"Do investors play that rally again as they have in the last few years, knowing that it's a little flash in the pan? Or do they say, 'You know what? It's a waste of my time,'" Baird analyst Michael Horwitz said, adding that he expects to see some German and minor Chinese solar players go out of business next year.
"You can't have 20 players in every part of the Value chain," he said. (Reporting by Nichola Groom in Los Angeles and Christoph Steitz in Frankfurt; editing by Gunna Dickson)
After dismal 2nd-qtr, solar outlook brightens
inShare.1Share thisEmailPrintRelated NewsChevron profit jumps with oil, output growth slow
Fri, Jul 29 2011
UPDATE 4-Anglo American sees strong end to 2011 after H1 miss
Fri, Jul 29 2011
Samsung profit outlook weakens on chips, mobiles strong
Fri, Jul 29 2011
Thomson Reuters margins rise; CEO seeks to reassure
Thu, Jul 28 2011
UPDATE 4-Potash Corp profit jumps 75 pct; boosts outlook
Thu, Jul 28 2011Analysis & OpinionTech wrap: Now in your Twitter stream - ads
Will power lines become white elephants?
Related TopicsStocks »
Markets »
Energy »
Fri Jul 29, 2011 1:07pm EDT
(Corrects First Solar earnings date in paragraph 9)
* Solar market likely bottomed in second quarter
* Module prices have slid about 25 percent this year
* Price declines will spur demand in second half of 2011
By Nichola Groom and Christoph Steitz
LOS ANGELES/FRANKFURT, July 29 (Reuters) - Solar investors should brace themselves for some downright dreadful second-quarter earnings reports in the coming weeks, though the rest of the year may provide some relief to battered solar stocks as panel prices stabilize and profit margins recover.
The solar market likely bottomed in the second quarter after pullbacks in subsidies in No. 2 solar market Italy stalled development of projects there this spring, creating an oversupply of solar panels in the market and sparking a more than 20 percent drop in prices.
"It's going to be probably the most challenging quarter we've seen in the space since the financial crisis," Kaufman Bros analyst Jeff Bencik said. "Volumes are starting to pick back up, but we have pricing declines of 25 to 30 percent across the supply chain."
Solar power relies on government subsidies to compete with electricity generated by fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas. In general, drops in the price of solar power are a good thing for the subsidy-dependent industry -- but manufacturers struggle if they can't cut costs at a similar rate.
Solar modules cost about $1.80 per watt in the first quarter, and are now selling for $1.40 per watt or less.
That drop has taken a big toll on manufacturers' profit margins and sent their stocks into a tailspin.
To see an interactive graphic comparing solar companies, click here: r.reuters.com/vej82s
Gross margins for photovoltaic module manufacturers have fallen by 25 percent in the last six months, according to research firm IMS Research.
The solar earnings season will kick off in earnest with reports from U.S. wafer maker MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR.N) and U.S. solar manufacturing equipment maker GT Solar (SOLR.O) on Aug. 3, followed by the world's most valuable solar company, First Solar Inc (FSLR.O), a day later.
Many German solar companies, including SolarWorld (SWVG.DE), Centrotherm (CTNG.DE), Phoenix Solar (PS4G.DE) and SMA Solar (S92G.DE), are scheduled to release results the week of Aug. 8.
But some big solar players -- including U.S.-based SunPower Corp (SPWRA.O) and China's Renesola Ltd (SOL.N) -- have already warned of weak results in the second quarter. [ID:nN1E76O1PL] [ID:nL3E7IC1IT]
Germany's Q-Cells SE(QCEG.DE), which will report results August 12, has also said that demand remained weak during the second three months of the year, while Norway's Renewable Energy Corporation (REC.OL) last week was hit by a $1.16 billion impairment, due to under-used factories. [ID:nFAB016116] [ID:nLDE76H0J3]
The industry turmoil has also weighed on share prices. The MAC Solar Energy index .SUNIDX is down 27 percent since the beginning of the second quarter.
Many expect solar companies' fortunes to improve in the second half of the year as lower prices on panels unleash a new wave of demand.
Solar inverter maker Power-One, for instance, said on Thursday that its sales in the third quarter would benefit from increased sales to rising markets in North America and Asia as well as an improved market in Germany.[ID:nN1E76R1UA]
SunPower's announcement this week also indicated that demand was strong, as the company said its revenue would be at the high end of a previously forecasted range, despite contracting margins.
Increased demand should help stem the rapid drop in prices that has crippled the industry in recent months.
"A lot of companies are seeing volume increases, which is the good news," said Jon Sigurdsen, fund manager at DnB NOR unit Carlson in Oslo. "Very recently a lot of companies have said prices are stabilizing."
Overall, outlooks for the rest of the year should be positive, analysts said, but warned about another round of subsidy cuts in 2012.
"The next cut in feed-in tariffs in January 2012 is just around the corner," said Michael Tappeiner, an analyst at Unicredit in Munich. "It'll remain very tight for the sector overall."
The question is whether investors will dive into the beaten down sector and pick up solar stocks at bargain prices now that the worst of 2011 is over.
"Do investors play that rally again as they have in the last few years, knowing that it's a little flash in the pan? Or do they say, 'You know what? It's a waste of my time,'" Baird analyst Michael Horwitz said, adding that he expects to see some German and minor Chinese solar players go out of business next year.
"You can't have 20 players in every part of the Value chain," he said. (Reporting by Nichola Groom in Los Angeles and Christoph Steitz in Frankfurt; editing by Gunna Dickson)
31/7 2011 06:50 le 044484 Solar equipment spending to collapse in 2012: report
inShare.0Share thisEmailPrintRelated NewsAustralia steps up climate fight
Sun, Jul 10 2011
Australia unveils sweeping carbon plan in climate fight
Sun, Jul 10 2011
Manufacturing rises but consumers remain wary
Fri, Jul 1 2011
U.S. consumer spending breaks 10-month rising streak
Mon, Jun 27 2011
Obama launches technology partnership to spur jobs
Fri, Jun 24 2011LOS ANGELES ' Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:00pm EDT
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Spending on equipment to make photovoltaic solar products will collapse next year following aggressive capacity expansions in 2010 and 2011 that have created an oversupply of panels in the market, according to a report by research firm Solarbuzz.
Equipment spending for crystalline silicon and thin-film products will slide 47 percent to $7.6 billion in 2012 from $14.2 billion this year, the report said.
Photovoltaic solar panels turn sunlight directly into electricity. The key raw material in most PV panels is crystalline silcon, though some manufacturers use other materials. Those are collectively known as "thin film."
In 2010 and the first half of 2011, ambitious capacity expansions by minor solar manufacturers helped boost equipment revenue growth rates to 84 percent and 33 percent, respectively, Solarbuzz said.
"Strong double-digit bookings and revenue growth through 2010 created a misleading picture for PV equipment suppliers," Solarbuzz analyst Finlay Colville said in a statement. "An artificial peak in equipment spending was created during 2010 and 2011, providing a short-term pull on equipment that was out-of-sync with the long-term requirements of the industry."
The combined manufacturing capacity of market-leading companies will be sufficient to meet worldwide demand this year and next, resulting in a major shakeout among solar cell manufacturers from 2012 to 2014.
Equipment spending by minor solar players is expected to fall 60 percent in 2012. By 2015, solar market leaders are forecast to account for more than 70 percent of all photovoltaic equipment spending.
Equipment suppliers to the silicon cell and module industries will be hit hardest, Solarbuzz said.
Companies with strong market shares, such as GT Solar International Inc, Meyer Burger, Applied Materials Inc, and Jinggong, have been "sheltered" from the decline in equipment bookings in the first half of this year, the firm said.
Solar stocks were broadly lower on Monday, with GT Solar's shares down 4.6 percent at $15.75, Hanwha Solarone down 5.1 percent at $5.60, JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd down 4.7 percent at $4.68, First Solar down 3.9 percent at $127.40, Yingli Green Energy down 3.9 percent at $7.61, and Trina Solar down 3.4 percent at $19.81.
inShare.0Share thisEmailPrintRelated NewsAustralia steps up climate fight
Sun, Jul 10 2011
Australia unveils sweeping carbon plan in climate fight
Sun, Jul 10 2011
Manufacturing rises but consumers remain wary
Fri, Jul 1 2011
U.S. consumer spending breaks 10-month rising streak
Mon, Jun 27 2011
Obama launches technology partnership to spur jobs
Fri, Jun 24 2011LOS ANGELES ' Mon Jul 11, 2011 2:00pm EDT
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Spending on equipment to make photovoltaic solar products will collapse next year following aggressive capacity expansions in 2010 and 2011 that have created an oversupply of panels in the market, according to a report by research firm Solarbuzz.
Equipment spending for crystalline silicon and thin-film products will slide 47 percent to $7.6 billion in 2012 from $14.2 billion this year, the report said.
Photovoltaic solar panels turn sunlight directly into electricity. The key raw material in most PV panels is crystalline silcon, though some manufacturers use other materials. Those are collectively known as "thin film."
In 2010 and the first half of 2011, ambitious capacity expansions by minor solar manufacturers helped boost equipment revenue growth rates to 84 percent and 33 percent, respectively, Solarbuzz said.
"Strong double-digit bookings and revenue growth through 2010 created a misleading picture for PV equipment suppliers," Solarbuzz analyst Finlay Colville said in a statement. "An artificial peak in equipment spending was created during 2010 and 2011, providing a short-term pull on equipment that was out-of-sync with the long-term requirements of the industry."
The combined manufacturing capacity of market-leading companies will be sufficient to meet worldwide demand this year and next, resulting in a major shakeout among solar cell manufacturers from 2012 to 2014.
Equipment spending by minor solar players is expected to fall 60 percent in 2012. By 2015, solar market leaders are forecast to account for more than 70 percent of all photovoltaic equipment spending.
Equipment suppliers to the silicon cell and module industries will be hit hardest, Solarbuzz said.
Companies with strong market shares, such as GT Solar International Inc, Meyer Burger, Applied Materials Inc, and Jinggong, have been "sheltered" from the decline in equipment bookings in the first half of this year, the firm said.
Solar stocks were broadly lower on Monday, with GT Solar's shares down 4.6 percent at $15.75, Hanwha Solarone down 5.1 percent at $5.60, JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd down 4.7 percent at $4.68, First Solar down 3.9 percent at $127.40, Yingli Green Energy down 3.9 percent at $7.61, and Trina Solar down 3.4 percent at $19.81.
31/7 2011 09:08 Nippon1976 044485 SOm sagt så venter jeg også til de får momentum igen..... Jeg har kun en lille klat Trina, som nok sælges mandag eller tirsdag
31/7 2011 09:47 144486 Tak for gode links Le.
Trina Solar er en lavpris producent og vil muligvis få gavn at de trykkede priser. De begyndte her for nyligt at udskibe til USA.
Jeg synes markedet er 2-4 kvartaler for langt fremme før det slemme sker, så der vil stadig være en del at hente måske på 3. kvartal og 4. kvartal. Trina handles på 4,5 p/e hvilket er interessant hvis de kan holde salgsvolumen og man må tro de er mindre følsomme overfor prisændringer end de andre er. Derimod er de nok ikke følsomme overfor et collaps i efterspørgslen som det ene link siger kommer i 2012.
Min Trina investering er faktisk et earnings trade for 2.kvartal, så det er en position der skal skydes af efter regnskab d. 20. august havde jeg tænkt.
Den er trykket p.t. af mistanke om regnskabsfusk, når 2.kvartal kommer ud er disse rygter forhåbentligvis en saga blot.
De har forecastet så sent som i maj 2011 at de får volume på over deres produktionskapacitet, så der skal være sket helt vilde ting i q2 før vi skal være på hælene.
Hvis man så allerede kan se øget efterspørgsel i q3, så synes jeg det er spændende.
Det var lidt om mine søndagsovervejelse på Trina.
Trina Solar er en lavpris producent og vil muligvis få gavn at de trykkede priser. De begyndte her for nyligt at udskibe til USA.
Jeg synes markedet er 2-4 kvartaler for langt fremme før det slemme sker, så der vil stadig være en del at hente måske på 3. kvartal og 4. kvartal. Trina handles på 4,5 p/e hvilket er interessant hvis de kan holde salgsvolumen og man må tro de er mindre følsomme overfor prisændringer end de andre er. Derimod er de nok ikke følsomme overfor et collaps i efterspørgslen som det ene link siger kommer i 2012.
Min Trina investering er faktisk et earnings trade for 2.kvartal, så det er en position der skal skydes af efter regnskab d. 20. august havde jeg tænkt.
Den er trykket p.t. af mistanke om regnskabsfusk, når 2.kvartal kommer ud er disse rygter forhåbentligvis en saga blot.
De har forecastet så sent som i maj 2011 at de får volume på over deres produktionskapacitet, så der skal være sket helt vilde ting i q2 før vi skal være på hælene.
Hvis man så allerede kan se øget efterspørgsel i q3, så synes jeg det er spændende.
Det var lidt om mine søndagsovervejelse på Trina.
31/7 2011 10:57 Nippon1976 044490 aka overvejer du andre end trina?? Der er flere af de andre solaktier, der ser bedre ud end trina.
Husk Stop Loss, der kan godt være risiko for stor fald ved dårligt regnskab, da de i forvejen er ret volatile
Husk Stop Loss, der kan godt være risiko for stor fald ved dårligt regnskab, da de i forvejen er ret volatile
hvilke nogen ser du med bedre nøgletal end Trina? Så vidt jeg kan huske fra min research er de dem med lavest p/e?
I får lige deres forventningerne til Q2:
Second Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Guidance
For the second quarter of 2011, the Company expects to ship between 430 MW to 450 MW of PV modules.
The Company expects its gross Margin relating to its in-house wafer production to module production to be in the mid 20s in percentage terms during the second quarter of 2011. The Company believes its overall gross Margin, taking into account wafer and cell requirements outsourced to third party suppliers to meet demand in excess of its internal capacity, for the second quarter will be in the low 20s in percentage terms. Such guidance is based on the exchange rate between the Euro and U.S. dollar as of May 17, 2011. For the full year of 2011, the Company expects total PV module shipments between 1.75 MW to 1.80 GW, representing an increase of 65.6% to 70.3% from 2010.
Operations and Business Outlook
Non-Silicon Cost
In the first quarter of 2011, the Company's non-silicon manufacturing cost for its core raw materials to module production was approximately $0.73 per watt, a sequential decrease of $0.01. By the end of 2011, the Company expects its non-silicon manufacturing cost to decline to approximately $0.70 through the continuation of technology and manufacturing process improvements involving proprietary processes for ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing, higher cell conversion efficiencies, and supply chain and logistics management initiatives currently under testing or development.
Silicon Procurement
Through its diversified range of short, medium, and long-term supply contracts, the Company will continue to maintain competitive silicon costs relative to the current market price.
2011 Capacity Expansion
As of April 30, 2011, the Company's annualized in-house ingot and wafer production capacity was approximately 750 MW and its PV cell and module production capacities was approximately 1.6 GW.
To meet expected demand for its PV solar modules, the Company expects to raise its annualized in-house ingot and wafer production capacity and PV cell and module production capacity to approximately 1.2 GW and 1.9 GW, respectively, in the second half of 2011, based on actual manufacturing Yield.
Second Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Guidance
For the second quarter of 2011, the Company expects to ship between 430 MW to 450 MW of PV modules.
The Company expects its gross Margin relating to its in-house wafer production to module production to be in the mid 20s in percentage terms during the second quarter of 2011. The Company believes its overall gross Margin, taking into account wafer and cell requirements outsourced to third party suppliers to meet demand in excess of its internal capacity, for the second quarter will be in the low 20s in percentage terms. Such guidance is based on the exchange rate between the Euro and U.S. dollar as of May 17, 2011. For the full year of 2011, the Company expects total PV module shipments between 1.75 MW to 1.80 GW, representing an increase of 65.6% to 70.3% from 2010.
Operations and Business Outlook
Non-Silicon Cost
In the first quarter of 2011, the Company's non-silicon manufacturing cost for its core raw materials to module production was approximately $0.73 per watt, a sequential decrease of $0.01. By the end of 2011, the Company expects its non-silicon manufacturing cost to decline to approximately $0.70 through the continuation of technology and manufacturing process improvements involving proprietary processes for ingot, wafer, cell and module manufacturing, higher cell conversion efficiencies, and supply chain and logistics management initiatives currently under testing or development.
Silicon Procurement
Through its diversified range of short, medium, and long-term supply contracts, the Company will continue to maintain competitive silicon costs relative to the current market price.
2011 Capacity Expansion
As of April 30, 2011, the Company's annualized in-house ingot and wafer production capacity was approximately 750 MW and its PV cell and module production capacities was approximately 1.6 GW.
To meet expected demand for its PV solar modules, the Company expects to raise its annualized in-house ingot and wafer production capacity and PV cell and module production capacity to approximately 1.2 GW and 1.9 GW, respectively, in the second half of 2011, based on actual manufacturing Yield.
31/7 2011 11:32 Nippon1976 144494 stiger JA Solar mandag, bryder den wedgen og giver dermed købssignal.
Daqo er også vær at holde øje med.
Det skal også siges at flere at dem har givet klare salgssignaler.
Daqo er også vær at holde øje med.
Det skal også siges at flere at dem har givet klare salgssignaler.
31/7 2011 13:04 le 044506 denne her er ikke uinterresant
American Superconductor: Time to Catch a Falling Knife?
By Tom Konrad, Contributor
7. juni 2011 ' Post Your Comment
What is AMSC stock worth?
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American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) investors panicked yet again on June 1st when the company said it would delay filing its annual report, needing additional time to review its recognition of revenue from Sinovel Wind Group (601558.SS) in the last three quarters of their fiscal 2010 (July 2010 thru March 2011).
The stock promptly dropped another 20+% and is trading for around $8 as I write, down over 70% since the start of the year.
The Story So Far
The delayed annual report should not have caught investors by surprise. When AMSC first announced that Sinovel had not paid for previously delivered product and was refusing to accept deliveries in early April, it was fairly clear that some revenue recognition would have to be restated. That, after all, was the main grounds for the several class action lawsuits which promptly sprang up. So investors are selling simply because of the increased uncertainty of not having new financial statements, not because of new negative news.
The other piece of recent news was the announcement on May 24 that Daniel McGahn, AMSC's former President and COO, would be taking AMSC founder Gregory Yurek's place as CEO. Although the board attempted to pass this off "as part of the CEO succession plan that has been discussed with the Board of Directors since late 2010," I'd be willing to bet that the succession plan in question was significantly accelerated due to recent events. In any case, Yurek will stay on as board chairman, and McGahn is a company insider, so while this may represent a change in emphasis for the company, it's no revolution.
When I first looked at AMSC after the Sinovel announcement, I thought the company was a speculative buy below $12, but quickly changed my mind when I found out that Sinovel had been working to establish a China-based competitor to AMSC. With the recent sell-off, I'm looking at the stock again. But with the immediate risk of dilution as the company attempts to raise funds in order to complete their acquisition of The Switch Engineering Oy ("The Switch"), it's difficult to point to any price as a bottom, even if the company's fundamental Value is much higher.
Back of the Envelope Calculations
One reader suggested that AMSC's Dec 31 cash on hand of $4.79 might serve as a useful floor for the stock price. However, that amount represents only $243M, and any amount not needed to maintain operations will almost certainly be used as part of "The Switch" acquisition. The rest will either be raised in the form of debt, or additional share offerings. At the current share price, I expect that management will attempt to fund the rest of the acquisition with debt, if they can find a bank or banks willing to make the loan.
The company's book value per share was $9.86 on Dec 31, a number which represents the cost paid to acquire the company's assets, minus any depreciation. book value is a notoriously inaccurate guide to the current replacement cost of assets, and to the extent that these assets are dedicated to servicing the needs of Sinovel, they may in fact be worth much less than the company paid for them. Hence, it is also difficult to place a floor under the possible stock price based on book value.
Finally, we should consider future potential earnings as an indicator of the company's Value. In the June 1st press release, AMSC said it "currently expects to reverse the recognition of a material amount of revenue that it had included when estimating revenues of "less than $355 million." With shipments to Sinovel having not yet resumed two months into fiscal 2011, I think it is reasonable to expect much lower revenues this year.
My current guess is that Sinovel will again accept shipments from AMSC this year, but they will never return to former levels, and could easily decline over time. I'm far from confident in this guess, but given that Sinovel previously accounted for 70% of AMSC revenues, I think a reasonable guess for revenue in FY 2011 would be on the order of $150M (not including revenues attributable to "The Switch"). Those revenues will come from any resumption of sales to Sinovel, revenues to other customers (Sinovel was only 70%, after all) and growth, especially from AMSC's eponymous superconducting wire business.
If AMSC maintains their previous gross Margin of 29%, $150M revenues will translate into an operating profit of $43M, or an EBITDA of $28M. If overhead were not reduced from last year, net loss would be about $7M. But the company is working to reduce overhead, and said that they had already reduced headcount by 10% in the June 1st press release. Therefore, we can reasonably expect overhead to fall, leaving the company near break-even or at a tiny profit.
If AMSC does not achieve a significant profit in 2011 as I'm guessing, a reasonable way to Value the company would be based on sales. Here are the price/sales ratios of other publicly traded wind industry players:
Company
Price/Sales (ttm)
P/E (ttm)
Broadwind Energy (BWEN.OB)
1.15
42
Gamesa (GCTAF.PK)
2.79
129
Kaydon Corp (KDN)
2.55
22
Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK)
0.58
38
Zoltek (ZOLT)
1.23
N/A
Given the uncertainly currently surrounding American Superconductor, Broadwind and Zoltek are probably the better comparables than the established companies Kaydon, Gamesa, and Vestas, so I will use a prospective Price/Sales ratio of 1.0 to 1.3. Using my $150M revenue estimate, we get a market capitalization of between $150M and $200M.
The Switch acquisition was valued at €190M, or about $273M at current exchange rates, and was supposed to be immediately accretive to AMSC's sales. It seems reasonable that, to the extent that the acquisition can be funded without outside funds, it should increase AMSC's market cap. Given AMSC's cash on hand at the end of the year of $243M, I'm comfortable attributing another $200M market cap to The Switch, for a total market capitalization of between $350M and $400M. This translates to a stock price of between $6.90 and $7.90.
Conclusion
Given the uncertainty in all my guesstimates and calculations, it may already be time to pull the trigger on AMSC, given that the company seems relatively fairly valued even if we assume (as I did in my back-of-the-envelope calculation above) that most revenue from Sinovel is gone for good. The recent response to their delayed annual report has the feel of panic selling.
Yet panicking sellers do not pay much attention to valuations, back-of-the-envelope or otherwise. Are you brave enough to try and catch a falling knife?
This article was originally published on AltEnergyStocks.com and was reprinted with permission.
DISCLOSURE: long Gamesa. Considering a near-term purchase of AMSC.
DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
American Superconductor: Time to Catch a Falling Knife?
By Tom Konrad, Contributor
7. juni 2011 ' Post Your Comment
What is AMSC stock worth?
Do you like this article?
Email Bookmark Print Feed Share
Share
American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) investors panicked yet again on June 1st when the company said it would delay filing its annual report, needing additional time to review its recognition of revenue from Sinovel Wind Group (601558.SS) in the last three quarters of their fiscal 2010 (July 2010 thru March 2011).
The stock promptly dropped another 20+% and is trading for around $8 as I write, down over 70% since the start of the year.
The Story So Far
The delayed annual report should not have caught investors by surprise. When AMSC first announced that Sinovel had not paid for previously delivered product and was refusing to accept deliveries in early April, it was fairly clear that some revenue recognition would have to be restated. That, after all, was the main grounds for the several class action lawsuits which promptly sprang up. So investors are selling simply because of the increased uncertainty of not having new financial statements, not because of new negative news.
The other piece of recent news was the announcement on May 24 that Daniel McGahn, AMSC's former President and COO, would be taking AMSC founder Gregory Yurek's place as CEO. Although the board attempted to pass this off "as part of the CEO succession plan that has been discussed with the Board of Directors since late 2010," I'd be willing to bet that the succession plan in question was significantly accelerated due to recent events. In any case, Yurek will stay on as board chairman, and McGahn is a company insider, so while this may represent a change in emphasis for the company, it's no revolution.
When I first looked at AMSC after the Sinovel announcement, I thought the company was a speculative buy below $12, but quickly changed my mind when I found out that Sinovel had been working to establish a China-based competitor to AMSC. With the recent sell-off, I'm looking at the stock again. But with the immediate risk of dilution as the company attempts to raise funds in order to complete their acquisition of The Switch Engineering Oy ("The Switch"), it's difficult to point to any price as a bottom, even if the company's fundamental Value is much higher.
Back of the Envelope Calculations
One reader suggested that AMSC's Dec 31 cash on hand of $4.79 might serve as a useful floor for the stock price. However, that amount represents only $243M, and any amount not needed to maintain operations will almost certainly be used as part of "The Switch" acquisition. The rest will either be raised in the form of debt, or additional share offerings. At the current share price, I expect that management will attempt to fund the rest of the acquisition with debt, if they can find a bank or banks willing to make the loan.
The company's book value per share was $9.86 on Dec 31, a number which represents the cost paid to acquire the company's assets, minus any depreciation. book value is a notoriously inaccurate guide to the current replacement cost of assets, and to the extent that these assets are dedicated to servicing the needs of Sinovel, they may in fact be worth much less than the company paid for them. Hence, it is also difficult to place a floor under the possible stock price based on book value.
Finally, we should consider future potential earnings as an indicator of the company's Value. In the June 1st press release, AMSC said it "currently expects to reverse the recognition of a material amount of revenue that it had included when estimating revenues of "less than $355 million." With shipments to Sinovel having not yet resumed two months into fiscal 2011, I think it is reasonable to expect much lower revenues this year.
My current guess is that Sinovel will again accept shipments from AMSC this year, but they will never return to former levels, and could easily decline over time. I'm far from confident in this guess, but given that Sinovel previously accounted for 70% of AMSC revenues, I think a reasonable guess for revenue in FY 2011 would be on the order of $150M (not including revenues attributable to "The Switch"). Those revenues will come from any resumption of sales to Sinovel, revenues to other customers (Sinovel was only 70%, after all) and growth, especially from AMSC's eponymous superconducting wire business.
If AMSC maintains their previous gross Margin of 29%, $150M revenues will translate into an operating profit of $43M, or an EBITDA of $28M. If overhead were not reduced from last year, net loss would be about $7M. But the company is working to reduce overhead, and said that they had already reduced headcount by 10% in the June 1st press release. Therefore, we can reasonably expect overhead to fall, leaving the company near break-even or at a tiny profit.
If AMSC does not achieve a significant profit in 2011 as I'm guessing, a reasonable way to Value the company would be based on sales. Here are the price/sales ratios of other publicly traded wind industry players:
Company
Price/Sales (ttm)
P/E (ttm)
Broadwind Energy (BWEN.OB)
1.15
42
Gamesa (GCTAF.PK)
2.79
129
Kaydon Corp (KDN)
2.55
22
Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY.PK)
0.58
38
Zoltek (ZOLT)
1.23
N/A
Given the uncertainly currently surrounding American Superconductor, Broadwind and Zoltek are probably the better comparables than the established companies Kaydon, Gamesa, and Vestas, so I will use a prospective Price/Sales ratio of 1.0 to 1.3. Using my $150M revenue estimate, we get a market capitalization of between $150M and $200M.
The Switch acquisition was valued at €190M, or about $273M at current exchange rates, and was supposed to be immediately accretive to AMSC's sales. It seems reasonable that, to the extent that the acquisition can be funded without outside funds, it should increase AMSC's market cap. Given AMSC's cash on hand at the end of the year of $243M, I'm comfortable attributing another $200M market cap to The Switch, for a total market capitalization of between $350M and $400M. This translates to a stock price of between $6.90 and $7.90.
Conclusion
Given the uncertainty in all my guesstimates and calculations, it may already be time to pull the trigger on AMSC, given that the company seems relatively fairly valued even if we assume (as I did in my back-of-the-envelope calculation above) that most revenue from Sinovel is gone for good. The recent response to their delayed annual report has the feel of panic selling.
Yet panicking sellers do not pay much attention to valuations, back-of-the-envelope or otherwise. Are you brave enough to try and catch a falling knife?
This article was originally published on AltEnergyStocks.com and was reprinted with permission.
DISCLOSURE: long Gamesa. Considering a near-term purchase of AMSC.
DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. This article contains the current opinions of the author and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This article has been distributed for informational purposes only. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.
1/8 2011 14:43 Nippon1976 044534 Så blev sidst 220 tsl solgt efter stor stigning ved åbning i dag. Om det er for tidligt ved jeg ikke, men de blev solgt med plus og sma20 kunne sagtens være modstand.
Jeg leder efter noget salg i 20´erne. Jeg må lige kigge på noget rally i løbet af ugen og så tage beslutningen.
