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DANMARKS STØRSTE INVESTORSITE MED DEBAT, CHAT OG NYHEDER

Markedet tror ikke på US default


44466 29/7 2011 13:10
Oversigt




29/7 2011 13:24 troldmanden 044468



Jeg må erkende jeg er blevet mindre positiv i forhold til at nå en aftale inden den 3/8

For når selv rep ikke kan få deres egen plan igennem fordi tea party bevægelsen KUN vil have det på deres måde. Så er det parti helt fastlåst. Og Bohener har heller ikke indikeret han vil lave et fælles udspil sammen med Dem. for på den måde at kunne undvære Tea party stemmerne.



http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/60194.html



29/7 2011 14:23 Skanis 044469



Jeg må igen tro på at ingen politiske partier vil det skidt for deres land. Og alt andet end en ret skrap og bæredygtig aftale vil skabe kaos og koste USA dyrt i form af nedgradering af gæld mm. Derfor tror jeg på at de finder hinanden til sidst. Om aftalen så er god nok, det må tiden vise.



29/7 2011 14:47 troldmanden 044470



Problemet er at der vitterligt er mange tea party folk der IKKE forstår alvoren. Det er ret tydeligt når man læser deres begrundelser. Der er dem der direkte ønsker loftet ikke skal hæves period. For som de siger så skal der jo helt automatisk skæres ned på det offentlige for at få ballance.

Og jeg kan se en del tea party tilhængere skriver alvorlige mails/breve til de tea party folk der blev stemt ind her for 7-8 mdr siden. Og beskeden er ret klar. Indgå ikke nogen aftale.

Så den yderste højerfløj er meget klar i spyttet. Og de er jo en hel del i kongressen efter sidste valg. Så derfor står rep ledelse overfor en særdeles uppopulær beslutning. Enten går de uden om en stor og stadigt hastigt voksende del af deres parti og kongress. Eller også føjer de dem og lader tingene ramle.

Det er naturligt at tro på det første. Men der er altså stadigt ikke noget som helst tegn på det. Tea party bliver stadig forsøgt at få med om bord på Boheners plan. Og den er jo langt fra god nok til dem og Obama vil vedtage den. Så nej er derfor ikke helt så optimistisk længere. Men i hvert fald ikke længere man kategorisk kan afvise det kollapser



29/7 2011 14:54 Skanis 044471



Men de mindre "fanatiske" republikanere kan gå mod Tea party og stemme for et kompromis med demokraterne?

Så er der en flertal den vej igennem. Der må findes nogle fra det parti som ikke er helt uansvarlige.



29/7 2011 15:02 troldmanden 044472



De "fanatiske" rep er netop tea party bevægelse. Og det er også fordi de ikke har flyttet sig at Boehner i går måtte aflyse en afstemning. For der er simpelthen for mange af disse der af idiologiske årsager ikke vil stemme for.

Så Boehner må indse at ham må træffe den svære beslutning om at droppe hele højerfløjen for at indgå et kompromis med dem.

Egentligt burde det ikke være så svært at indgå en aftale med De. For de har jo til min store overraskelse helt droppet at indflette skatte stigninger. Det er for miug at se en fejltagelse af dimensioner. For det betyder også at det næsten kun er Rep der får deres ønsker igennem.



29/7 2011 15:02 044473



Man skal også huske på at det er en dyb ideologisk forskel om offentlige budgetter, der gør dette til en politisk varm kartoffel, der taler til de respektive baglande. Specielt republikanernes bagland og det er afgørende for dem at tegne en klar profil op inden valgkampen går i gang om at blive USA´s næste præsident. Så får meget af den republikanske base er det en win-win. De vil gerne se staten fejler, for det er hele deres politik.



29/7 2011 15:13 troldmanden 044474



ja for højrefjøjen er det win/win fordi de ikke forstår konsekvenserne af ingen aftale. Men for resten af rep. så tror jeg godt de er klar over det er lose/lose. For lader de det hele faldet på gulvet og markedet falder for lavor så er det ikke svært at gætte på hvem der får skylden for det. Og så vinder de bestemt ikke i 2012. Og går de mod højrefløjen så er der en risiko for de ikke vil stemme på en mere moderat Rep hvis en sådan vinder nomineringen til præcident valget. Så Rep. står i en rigtig svær situation




29/7 2011 15:15 044475



Jeg tror du gør klogt i ikke at undervurdere politikere uanset hvilken fløj de befinder sig på. Dem der lægger disse type strategier ved nøjagtigt hvad de gør og konsekvenserne heraf.



29/7 2011 15:24 troldmanden 044476



Når vi taler ideologi så taler vi så dybe følelser at jeg ikke tror alle kan holde sig til en større "politisk strategi". Jeg er ret overbevist om at der er flere tea party folk der no matter what nægter at stemme for nogle af disse forslag.

Men jeg både tror og håber da på der bliver indgået et forlig som størstedelen af rep og dem kan stemme for. Og så må Rep tage et internt slagsmål bagefter. (der er nu også folk på venstrefløjen der ikke er tilfredse. Vi har dog ikke hørt noget om at de ikke vil stemme for f.eks Dem. eget forslag)



30/7 2011 11:28 044482




Men der er stadig betydelig usikkerhed her i weekenden

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47081ac6-b9e3-11e0-8171-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss



31/7 2011 13:57 le 044505



hvordan mon man skal tolke de sidste udmeldinger om et muligt forlig her søndag?

jeg tror faktisk på et forlig

Late stab at debt-limit deal to avert US default
Suddenly, a late stab at debt-limit compromise to avert US default -- after
weeks of sniping


tweet14EmailPrint..
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell,
R-Ky., appear at a news conference as the debt crisis goes unresolved on Capitol
Hill in Washington, Saturday, July 30, 2011.(AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)
David Espo, AP Special Correspondent, On Sunday July 31, 2011, 12:53 am EDT
WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a last-minute stab at compromise, Republican congressional
leaders and the White House made significant progress Saturday night toward a
deal to avert a government default threatened for early next week, according to
officials familiar with the talks.

Under the plan, the nation's debt limit would rise in two steps by a total of
about $2.4 trillion and spending would be cut by a slightly larger amount, these
officials said. The first stage -- about $1 trillion -- would take place
immediately and the second later in the year.

Congress would be required to vote on a balanced budget amendment to the
Constitution, but none of the debt limit increase would be contingent on its
approval.

One Republican official said the two sides had settled on general concepts, but
added there were numerous details to be worked out, and no assurance of a final
agreement. A Democratic official said the two sides were "not really" close to a
deal, but added that one could come together quickly. They spoke only on
condition of anonymity about the private negotiations.

Word of significant progress after weeks of stalemate offered the strongest
indication yet that an economy-crippling default might be averted.

Without legislation in place by next Tuesday, administration officials say the
Treasury will run out of funds to pay all the nation's bills. They say a
subsequent default could prove catastrophic for the U.S. economy and send
shockwaves around the world.

President Barack Obama is seeking legislation to raise the government's $14.3
trillion debt limit by about $2.4 trillion, enough to tide the Treasury over
until after the 2012 elections. Over many weeks, he has agreed to Republican
demands that deficits be cut -- without a requirement for tax increases -- in
exchange for additional U.S. borrowing authority.

But President Barack Obama has threatened to veto any legislation that would
require a second vote in Congress for any additional borrowing authority to take
effect, saying that would invite a recurrence of the current crisis in the heat
of next year's election campaigns.

First word of an effort to reach a compromise came at mid-afternoon from Senate
Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker John Boehner -- Obama's
principal Republican antagonist in a contentious new era of divided government.
Both GOP leaders said they were in touch with the White House and hopeful of a
deal.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid heatedly denied their claims of progress on
the Senate floor a short while later, but several hours later said events had
changed.

"There are many elements to be finalized...there is still a distance to go," he
said in dramatic late-night remarks. "I'm glad to see this move toward
cooperation and compromise," he added.

He said he was optimistic any agreement would not include a short-term extension
of the nation's debt limit -- a point on which Obama has insisted.

Officials familiar with the discussions said that while the first-step increase
in borrowing authority and cuts in spending would happen at once, the next step
would be somewhat more complicated.

The additional increase in borrowing authority, about $1.4 trillion, would be
linked to creation of a special committee of lawmakers charged with recommending
deficit cuts of a slightly larger size. If the panel failed to act, or its
proposals were rejected in Congress, automatic spending cuts would take effect
to slice spending by slightly more than $1.4 trillion, possibly affecting
Medicare and the Pentagon.

The terms under discussion appeared to satisfy key demands made by both sides.

Obama would prevail on insisting that after the legislation is passed, Congress
would not be required to vote for debt limit increases to take place.
Republicans would win spending cuts slightly larger than any debt limit increase
and avoid any higher taxes.

Reid said that at the request of White House officials, he was postponing a test
vote set for shortly after midnight on his own legislation to raise the debt
limit while cutting spending.

Republicans opposed his bill, and said in advance they had the votes to block
its advance.

Halfway around the world, on a visit to Camp Leatherneck in Afghanistan, the
nation's top military officer fielded questions from troops asking if they would
be paid in the event of a default.

"I actually don't know the answer to that question," said Adm. Mike Mullen,
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, although he told them they would continue
to go to work each day.

Obama, in his weekly radio and Internet address, said there were several ways
out of the gridlock that has prevented action by Congress, then added, "There is
very little time."

But to get to the endgame, Republicans and Democrats had to go through the
formality of killing each other's bills -- scoring their own political points --
before they could turn to meaningful negotiations.

And a few hours after the president spoke, House Republican leaders engineered a
vote to defeat the Reid-drafted proposal to raise the debt limit on a near-party
line vote at mid-afternoon.

That was payback of sorts -- Reid had arranged the rejection of a House-passed
bill on Friday within minutes after it reached the Senate.

Individual lawmakers expressed anxiety about the prospect that faced the country
if it were to default for the first time in history.

"I'm worried about Congress defaulting on our country," said Sen. Johnny
Isakson, R-Ga., urging lawmakers to find common ground. He suggested that
spending cuts take place automatically if necessary to ensure the debt limit
does not expire before 2013.

With financial markets closed for the weekend, lawmakers had a little breathing
room, but not much. Asian markets begin opening for the new work week when it is
late Sunday afternoon in the capital.

In his remarks at a news conference, McConnell said Obama "needs to indicate
what he will sign, and we are in those discussions."

He said later he had spoken several times during the day with Vice President Joe
Biden, who played a prominent role in earlier attempts to break the gridlock
that has pushed the country to the verge of an unprecedented default.

Boehner said that despite the partisanship of recent weeks, "I think we're
dealing with reasonable, responsible people who want this crisis to end as
quickly as possible and I'm confident it will."

The talk of compromise contrasted sharply with the day's earlier developments as
both the House and Senate convened for unusual Saturday sessions.

The House voted down legislation drafted by Democrat Reid to raise the
government's debt limit by $2.4 trillion and cut spending by the same amount.

The vote was 246-173, mostly along party lines and after debate filled with
harsh, partisan remarks.

Republicans said the Reid spending-cuts plan was filled with gimmicks and would
make unacceptable reductions in Pentagon accounts. "It offers no real solutions
to the out-of-control spending problems," said Rep. Alan Nunnelee of
Mississippi, part of a group of 87 first-term Republicans who have led the push
for deeper spending cuts.

Not even Democrats seemed to like the legislation very much, although many
emerged from a closed-door meeting of the rank and file saying they would vote
for it.

Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas, called it "the least worst alternative to avoid
default."

Yet with their votes, many Democrats signaled their readiness for compromise by
voting to cut spending without raising taxes. Many Republicans insist taxes must
not be raised to cut into federal deficits, even for the wealthiest Americans
and for big oil companies.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi said Boehner "chose to go to the dark side"
when he changed his own legislation to satisfy tea party lawmakers and other
critics.

There were catcalls from the Republican side of the aisle at that, and Pelosi
responded by repeating that the speaker "chose to go to the dark side."

The House-passed bill provides for a $900 billion debt limit increase, coupled
with $917 billion in federal spending cuts.

The last-minute change requires both houses of Congress to approve a
Constitutional balanced budget amendment as a precondition for additional
borrowing authority to take effect.

Republicans ridiculed Reid's legislation.

"Not only does it fail to address our spending and debt problem, it won't even
prevent a downgrade of our credit rating," said Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J. "We
need actual cuts to government spending to address our long-term debt crisis,
not phantom cuts and accounting gimmicks."




31/7 2011 15:56 le 044510



USA nærmer sig en aftale om gældsstriden. (Foto: ALEX WONG) Se stort billede

USA klar med gælds-aftale
Skal spare 1000 milliarder dollars
- Søndag den 31. juli 2011, 15:37

DelForhandlerne i USA er klar med aftaleforslag om gældsloftet, oplyser ABC tv. Republikansk leder er optimist.

Ledere i USA's kongres er gået i gang med at briefe deres partifæller om et foreløbigt aftaleforslag om gældsloftet, som forhandlere har udarbejdet.

Senatets republikanske leder, Mitch McConnell, siger til tv-stationen CNN, at forhandlerne er "meget tæt" på en aftale, og at han har tiltro til, at aftalen vil forhindre USA i at ryge ud i en alvorlig gældskrise.

Han tilføjer over for tv-stationen, at han er tæt på at kunne anbefale aftalen over for de republikanske politikere.

Læs også: Apple har flere penge end USAs regering




Læs også: Derfor er USA i krise

Det store spørgsmål er nu, om forslaget kan samle tilstrækkeligt med opbakning blandt de demokratiske og republikanske politikere.

Kilder i Kongressen siger til den amerikanske tv-kanal ABC News, at aftalen indebærer, at gældsloftet øges med op mod 2400 milliarder dollar, og at der foretages nedskæringer for mere end 1000 milliarder dollar over de kommende 10 år.

En embedsmand i Det Hvide Hus understreger dog, at aftalen endnu ikke er helt på plads. A

BC News oplyser, at der ifølge forslaget vil blive nedsat et nyt kongresudvalg, der skal anbefale yderligere nedskæringer for over 1000 milliarder dollar, så de samlede nedskæringer svarer til det beløb, gældsloftet øges med.

Afhængigt af hvor dybe nedskæringer der foretages, kan præsident Barack Obama øge gældsloftet tilstrækkeligt til at slippe for endnu en opslidende strid om en ny forøgelse forud for præsidentvalget næste år, skriver ABC News.

Lørdag aften dansk tid meddelte ledende republikanere i Senatet og Repræsentanternes Hus, at de havde indledt "seriøse" forhandlinger direkte med Obama for at få hævet gældsloftet på 14.300 milliarder dollar.

/ritzau/Reuters

Del




31/7 2011 15:59 le 044511






31/7 2011 16:05 044512



Ja det virker som om de er tæt på.



31/7 2011 16:07 le 044513






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