"Goldman Sachs is telling clients to expect Intel's stock to decline as much as 10% on earnings days in reaction to disappointing second-quarter earnings, and a less than robust financial guidance for future quarters." osv http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903431804577502740178893990.html?mod=BOL_da_spd
Tja...
1. Der er ikke mange data bag forudsigelsen.
2. Men det er plausibelt, at vi er på vej nedad i lagercyklen.
3. Spørgsmålet er så, i hvilket omfang dette allerede er indregnet i kursen. PE 11,3 kan tåle et indtægtsfald uden at blive urimeligt stor.
Tja...
1. Der er ikke mange data bag forudsigelsen.
2. Men det er plausibelt, at vi er på vej nedad i lagercyklen.
3. Spørgsmålet er så, i hvilket omfang dette allerede er indregnet i kursen. PE 11,3 kan tåle et indtægtsfald uden at blive urimeligt stor.
Jeg citerer lidt mere. Læseadgangen afhænger åbenbart af, hvorfra der linkes.
"Intel, the world's largest semiconductor maker, pulls double-duty as the sector bellwether and global economic indicator. Unfortunately, the chip stock could sound a bearish tone on both counts when it reports earnings later this month.
Intel's (ticker: INTC) July 17 second-quarter earnings report is expected to reveal a broad-based slowdown that will offer little sustenance to Intel investors and economic analysts looking for signs of growth in the global economy.
Semiconductors are found in everything from washing machines to computers function. This makes semiconductor stocks particularly sensitive economic barometers. Recent weakness in the chip sector preceded today's press release from the Institute for Supply Management that showed the economy contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. At 49.7, the manufacturing index is below the critical 50 level. Above 50, the economy is growing. Below 50, the economy is contracting.
In anticipation of continued pressures, investors can buy bearish put options that expire in September on Intel to hedge existing shares or capitalize from Intel's expected weakness.
Goldman Sachs is telling clients to expect Intel's stock to decline as much as 10% on earnings days in reaction to disappointing second-quarter earnings, and a less than robust financial guidance for future quarters. The investment bank recently lowered semiconductor earnings estimates by 5% to 10% across the sector.
John Marshall, a Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist, is telling clients to buy September $22 puts to position for the stock to decline.
"Of all the listed puts in September, we estimate the $22 strike put would give investors the highest payout-per-dollar invested - 2.9 times the premium invested - if shares decline 5% to 10% around earnings day," Marshall advised clients in a Monday trading advisory.
With Intel's stock at $26.65, the September $22 put cost 21 cents. If the stock declines on earnings, and dips toward, and even below $22, the Value of the September $22 put could triple as expected. If earnings are better than expected, and the stock advances, the money spent on the September $22 put would be lost.
The risk of the trade seems reasonable based on past stock performance of other semiconductor stocks, including Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC). Those company preannounced earnings and underperformed the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) by 14%. The intangible risk is that the bearish call on chip stocks rests heavily on the bearish sector view of James Covello, Goldman Sachs' semiconductor analyst.
If Covello is correct, the sector declines will be exacerbated when other analysts lower estimates in reaction to earnings news. Covello told clients in a Monday note that other analysts could lower earnings estimates by 5% to 10%.
In essence, investors who buy Intel's September $22 put are wagering on Intel, and all the analysts who follow chip stocks. This adds a different dimension to the put trade.
The Intel put is also a put on the belief that other semiconductor analysts are not paying particularly close attention to their stocks. When the crowd of analysts are confronted by earnings results, they will be forced to lower earnings, which will help pull down prices across the sector.
Many sophisticated investors like these two-pronged trade scenarios that are rooted in fundamentals and crowd psychology. The crowd, even if it is comprised of analysts at major banks, tends to over react when confronted with news. This can lead to significant gains. It is true the Intel trade has more moving parts than a simple earnings- days trade, but what it adds in complexity it makes up for in potential momentum."
"Intel, the world's largest semiconductor maker, pulls double-duty as the sector bellwether and global economic indicator. Unfortunately, the chip stock could sound a bearish tone on both counts when it reports earnings later this month.
Intel's (ticker: INTC) July 17 second-quarter earnings report is expected to reveal a broad-based slowdown that will offer little sustenance to Intel investors and economic analysts looking for signs of growth in the global economy.
Semiconductors are found in everything from washing machines to computers function. This makes semiconductor stocks particularly sensitive economic barometers. Recent weakness in the chip sector preceded today's press release from the Institute for Supply Management that showed the economy contracted in June for the first time since July 2009. At 49.7, the manufacturing index is below the critical 50 level. Above 50, the economy is growing. Below 50, the economy is contracting.
In anticipation of continued pressures, investors can buy bearish put options that expire in September on Intel to hedge existing shares or capitalize from Intel's expected weakness.
Goldman Sachs is telling clients to expect Intel's stock to decline as much as 10% on earnings days in reaction to disappointing second-quarter earnings, and a less than robust financial guidance for future quarters. The investment bank recently lowered semiconductor earnings estimates by 5% to 10% across the sector.
John Marshall, a Goldman Sachs derivatives strategist, is telling clients to buy September $22 puts to position for the stock to decline.
"Of all the listed puts in September, we estimate the $22 strike put would give investors the highest payout-per-dollar invested - 2.9 times the premium invested - if shares decline 5% to 10% around earnings day," Marshall advised clients in a Monday trading advisory.
With Intel's stock at $26.65, the September $22 put cost 21 cents. If the stock declines on earnings, and dips toward, and even below $22, the Value of the September $22 put could triple as expected. If earnings are better than expected, and the stock advances, the money spent on the September $22 put would be lost.
The risk of the trade seems reasonable based on past stock performance of other semiconductor stocks, including Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC). Those company preannounced earnings and underperformed the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) by 14%. The intangible risk is that the bearish call on chip stocks rests heavily on the bearish sector view of James Covello, Goldman Sachs' semiconductor analyst.
If Covello is correct, the sector declines will be exacerbated when other analysts lower estimates in reaction to earnings news. Covello told clients in a Monday note that other analysts could lower earnings estimates by 5% to 10%.
In essence, investors who buy Intel's September $22 put are wagering on Intel, and all the analysts who follow chip stocks. This adds a different dimension to the put trade.
The Intel put is also a put on the belief that other semiconductor analysts are not paying particularly close attention to their stocks. When the crowd of analysts are confronted by earnings results, they will be forced to lower earnings, which will help pull down prices across the sector.
Many sophisticated investors like these two-pronged trade scenarios that are rooted in fundamentals and crowd psychology. The crowd, even if it is comprised of analysts at major banks, tends to over react when confronted with news. This can lead to significant gains. It is true the Intel trade has more moving parts than a simple earnings- days trade, but what it adds in complexity it makes up for in potential momentum."
