Priserne på korn mv er steget voldsomt den seneste måneds tid pga tørke i USA. Selv om vi stadig er under niveauet i 2008 og analytikerne forventer stigende priser de næste måneder efterfulgt af fald frem mod årsskiftet, så har Firstfarms kursen endnu ikke reageret. Firstfarms burde vel nu kunne "låses" ind salgspriser på højt niveau i år på baggrund af den kommende produktion i Slovakiet og Rumænien.
Selv om vi som sagt ikke er på samme niveuaer som i 2008, så nåede kursen på Firstfarms den gang op i svimlende niveau omkring de 195 med en fordoblign over et års tid.
Black Eart Farming i Sverige er til sammenligning steget små 50 pct den seneste måneds tid.
Kursen nu er nær ATL.
Selskabet leverede overskud i 2011 og det ser ud til deres turnaround er lykkedes.
Jeg har selv 500 stk.
Hvad siger Kristensen?
WRAPUP 2-US grain prices seen easing, tempering food inflation
Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:29pm GMT
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* Reuters poll sees grain prices retreating * Easing prices could temper gains in food costs * Still, grain prices seen historically high end-2012 * Will 2012 be similar to 2008 food crisis? * futures prices retreat amid rains, equities decline (Adds links to graphics) By K.T. Arasu CHICAGO, July 23 (Reuters) - High-flying U.S. grains prices could sink asmuch as 19 percent by the year-end from their drought-fueled peaks, a Reuterspoll showed, a decline that should temper expected inflation for a variety offoods ranging from meats to cereals to cooking oil. The poll of nine analysts showed that prices for grains will keep climbingover the next two months to fresh highs, then taper off after the U.S. harvest,and as traders turn their attention to crops in the Southern Hemisphere andpreparations to plant anew in the United States for harvest in 2013. Prices at the year-end, however, will remain historically high, with ChicagoBoard of Trade spot corn futures seen at $6.91 per bushel, the loftiestever for that time. But they will be off 17 percent from their current all-timehigh of $8.28-3/4 set on July 20. The poll showed that corn futures are seenpeaking at $8.87 in early August. Investment bank Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its forecast for corn pricesto soar to a record $9 per bushel in three months, and for soybeans to hit $20after cutting the Yield estimates for both crops. It pegged wheat at $9.80. "The importance of the current U.S. drought for the global crop outlooks ismagnified by detrimental weather conditions in other key world production andexporting nations in 2012," Goldman said. On Monday, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat prices tumbled due to forecasts forrain in some of the parched areas of the northern U.S. Midwest and as concernsover Europe's debt crisis sparked a selloff in equities and other commodities. The Reuters poll showed that CBOT soybean futures were seen ending2012 at $15.40 per bushel, the highest ever for that time of year but off 13percent from their record of $17.77-3/4. It showed the price peaking at $18.04per bushel. Chicago wheat is forecast to end the year at $7.72 per bushel, down19 percent from its peak of $9.52-3/4, the highest in nearly four years. Theanalysts expected the price to peak at $10.01 per bushel in late August. Corn and soybean futures set all-time highs last week as the worst droughtin 56 years withered crops in the world's largest grains exporter, sparkingworry about a food crisis like the one in 2008, when shortages sparked riots in30 countries. Ricky Volpe, research economist at the Economic Research Service of the U.S.Department of Agriculture, said higher food prices this time around will not becomparable to 2008. "None of the dynamics and indicators are approaching that for 2008," hesaid, adding that the food price increases in 2008 were the highest in 20 years. He said major differences include much lower crude oil prices this time, andless-expensive wheat. In 2008, crude oil hit an all-time high above $147 per barrel. A severeshortage of rice in Asia also served as a factor behind the civil unrest thatyear.
RALLY ADDS $30 BILLION TO FOOD COSTS While wheat prices remain well below all-time highs above $13 per bushel setin 2008, they have soared 55 percent in just over a month in tandem with cornand soybeans. Economist Bill Lapp of Advance Economic Solutions in Omaha, Nebraska, saidthe price rally has so far added about $30 billion to food costs that may bepassed on to consumers. "There is a cumulative $30 billion cost bubble due to the rise in prices forcorn, soybeans, soymeal and others," said Lapp, whose clients include foodcompanies and restaurants. Analysts said that while some of the higher food prices will come later thisyear, the bulk of the gains could arrive in 2013 as it usually takes severalmonths for food companies to run down their inventories before restocking. Some companies might have been caught flat-footed by the surge in grains,the analysts said. Just a month ago, the United States was seen heading forbumper crops after one of the mildest winters provided perfect plantingconditions. As the United States is the largest exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat,food inflation could also be exported to importing countries, especially inAsia. The U.S. drought has been more critical for soybeans, which are used to feedlivestock, produce biodiesel, make cooking oil and in some countries such asIndonesia eaten as a protein-rich snack, because a water shortage in leadinggrowers Brazil and Argentina slashed global production. The two South American countries -- the second- and third-largest soybeanexporters -- will plant their next crop this fall and begin exporting early nextyear. Some analysts, however, expect any food crisis this time to be worse than in2008, when riots helped spark the "Arab Spring" that toppled the leaders ofTunisia, Libya and Egypt last year. "It could be more severe than in 2008," said Dennis Gartman, a commoditiestrader and editor/publisher of The Gartman Letter. He said cereal makers were likely to raise prices even though "the cardboardbox containing the cereals is far more expensive than the grain." Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist and grain expert at the U.N.'s Foodand Agriculture Organization, told Reuters in Milan that while rising grainprices were a cause for concern, it was too early to call the situation a foodcrisis. (Additional reporting by Sam Nelson and Mark Weinraub; Editing by DavidGregorio and Dale Hudson)
Selv om vi som sagt ikke er på samme niveuaer som i 2008, så nåede kursen på Firstfarms den gang op i svimlende niveau omkring de 195 med en fordoblign over et års tid.
Black Eart Farming i Sverige er til sammenligning steget små 50 pct den seneste måneds tid.
Kursen nu er nær ATL.
Selskabet leverede overskud i 2011 og det ser ud til deres turnaround er lykkedes.
Jeg har selv 500 stk.
Hvad siger Kristensen?
WRAPUP 2-US grain prices seen easing, tempering food inflation
Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:29pm GMT
Print ' Single Page
[-] Text [+]
* Reuters poll sees grain prices retreating * Easing prices could temper gains in food costs * Still, grain prices seen historically high end-2012 * Will 2012 be similar to 2008 food crisis? * futures prices retreat amid rains, equities decline (Adds links to graphics) By K.T. Arasu CHICAGO, July 23 (Reuters) - High-flying U.S. grains prices could sink asmuch as 19 percent by the year-end from their drought-fueled peaks, a Reuterspoll showed, a decline that should temper expected inflation for a variety offoods ranging from meats to cereals to cooking oil. The poll of nine analysts showed that prices for grains will keep climbingover the next two months to fresh highs, then taper off after the U.S. harvest,and as traders turn their attention to crops in the Southern Hemisphere andpreparations to plant anew in the United States for harvest in 2013. Prices at the year-end, however, will remain historically high, with ChicagoBoard of Trade spot corn futures seen at $6.91 per bushel, the loftiestever for that time. But they will be off 17 percent from their current all-timehigh of $8.28-3/4 set on July 20. The poll showed that corn futures are seenpeaking at $8.87 in early August. Investment bank Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its forecast for corn pricesto soar to a record $9 per bushel in three months, and for soybeans to hit $20after cutting the Yield estimates for both crops. It pegged wheat at $9.80. "The importance of the current U.S. drought for the global crop outlooks ismagnified by detrimental weather conditions in other key world production andexporting nations in 2012," Goldman said. On Monday, CBOT corn, soybean and wheat prices tumbled due to forecasts forrain in some of the parched areas of the northern U.S. Midwest and as concernsover Europe's debt crisis sparked a selloff in equities and other commodities. The Reuters poll showed that CBOT soybean futures were seen ending2012 at $15.40 per bushel, the highest ever for that time of year but off 13percent from their record of $17.77-3/4. It showed the price peaking at $18.04per bushel. Chicago wheat is forecast to end the year at $7.72 per bushel, down19 percent from its peak of $9.52-3/4, the highest in nearly four years. Theanalysts expected the price to peak at $10.01 per bushel in late August. Corn and soybean futures set all-time highs last week as the worst droughtin 56 years withered crops in the world's largest grains exporter, sparkingworry about a food crisis like the one in 2008, when shortages sparked riots in30 countries. Ricky Volpe, research economist at the Economic Research Service of the U.S.Department of Agriculture, said higher food prices this time around will not becomparable to 2008. "None of the dynamics and indicators are approaching that for 2008," hesaid, adding that the food price increases in 2008 were the highest in 20 years. He said major differences include much lower crude oil prices this time, andless-expensive wheat. In 2008, crude oil hit an all-time high above $147 per barrel. A severeshortage of rice in Asia also served as a factor behind the civil unrest thatyear.
RALLY ADDS $30 BILLION TO FOOD COSTS While wheat prices remain well below all-time highs above $13 per bushel setin 2008, they have soared 55 percent in just over a month in tandem with cornand soybeans. Economist Bill Lapp of Advance Economic Solutions in Omaha, Nebraska, saidthe price rally has so far added about $30 billion to food costs that may bepassed on to consumers. "There is a cumulative $30 billion cost bubble due to the rise in prices forcorn, soybeans, soymeal and others," said Lapp, whose clients include foodcompanies and restaurants. Analysts said that while some of the higher food prices will come later thisyear, the bulk of the gains could arrive in 2013 as it usually takes severalmonths for food companies to run down their inventories before restocking. Some companies might have been caught flat-footed by the surge in grains,the analysts said. Just a month ago, the United States was seen heading forbumper crops after one of the mildest winters provided perfect plantingconditions. As the United States is the largest exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat,food inflation could also be exported to importing countries, especially inAsia. The U.S. drought has been more critical for soybeans, which are used to feedlivestock, produce biodiesel, make cooking oil and in some countries such asIndonesia eaten as a protein-rich snack, because a water shortage in leadinggrowers Brazil and Argentina slashed global production. The two South American countries -- the second- and third-largest soybeanexporters -- will plant their next crop this fall and begin exporting early nextyear. Some analysts, however, expect any food crisis this time to be worse than in2008, when riots helped spark the "Arab Spring" that toppled the leaders ofTunisia, Libya and Egypt last year. "It could be more severe than in 2008," said Dennis Gartman, a commoditiestrader and editor/publisher of The Gartman Letter. He said cereal makers were likely to raise prices even though "the cardboardbox containing the cereals is far more expensive than the grain." Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist and grain expert at the U.N.'s Foodand Agriculture Organization, told Reuters in Milan that while rising grainprices were a cause for concern, it was too early to call the situation a foodcrisis. (Additional reporting by Sam Nelson and Mark Weinraub; Editing by DavidGregorio and Dale Hudson)
Man har for knap en måneds tid siden haft lidt insiderkøb og 2 flere i maj, hvilket altid er godt. http://hugin.info/137806/R/1620272/517614.pdf
http://hugin.info/137806/R/1615942/515234.pdf
http://hugin.info/137806/R/1615034/514721.pdf
Regnskab kommer 21. august.
Summary
The Board of Directors and Management of FirstFarms A/S have today reviewed and adopted the
un-audited quarterly accounts for the period 1 January - 31 March 2012.
Result in Q1 as expected
FirstFarms has in the accounting period achieved a turnover of DKK 22.0 million (2011:
DKK 15.0 million), an EBIT result of DKK 0.0 million (2011: DKK -1.0 million) and a
pre-tax result of DKK -1.5 million (2011: DKK -1.9 million).
In Q1, the milk price has been on par with the expected but after the end of the quarter the
milk price has been under pressure. The milk production has in Q1 been lower than
expected.
The prices on grain products and oilseed are at present higher than expected. Sales
agreement of 45 percent of the expected harvest of sales crops in 2012 has been entered.
In Romania, FirstFarms has re-sowed some areas with winter rape and winter barley and
replaced them with sunflower and maize.
In both Slovakia and Romania, the crops are satisfactory compared to the time of year.
FirstFarms maintains the 2012-expectations of a turnover and an EBIT result on par with
2011.
Den er ikke nødvendigvis billig på nøgletal synes jeg, men interessant.
http://hugin.info/137806/R/1615942/515234.pdf
http://hugin.info/137806/R/1615034/514721.pdf
Regnskab kommer 21. august.
Summary
The Board of Directors and Management of FirstFarms A/S have today reviewed and adopted the
un-audited quarterly accounts for the period 1 January - 31 March 2012.
Result in Q1 as expected
FirstFarms has in the accounting period achieved a turnover of DKK 22.0 million (2011:
DKK 15.0 million), an EBIT result of DKK 0.0 million (2011: DKK -1.0 million) and a
pre-tax result of DKK -1.5 million (2011: DKK -1.9 million).
In Q1, the milk price has been on par with the expected but after the end of the quarter the
milk price has been under pressure. The milk production has in Q1 been lower than
expected.
The prices on grain products and oilseed are at present higher than expected. Sales
agreement of 45 percent of the expected harvest of sales crops in 2012 has been entered.
In Romania, FirstFarms has re-sowed some areas with winter rape and winter barley and
replaced them with sunflower and maize.
In both Slovakia and Romania, the crops are satisfactory compared to the time of year.
FirstFarms maintains the 2012-expectations of a turnover and an EBIT result on par with
2011.
Den er ikke nødvendigvis billig på nøgletal synes jeg, men interessant.
24/7 2012 11:38 Kristensen 5
59330 Tilbage i 2010 steg kursen på Ffarms ret kraftigt fra omkring 50 til omkring 70 i løbet af juli og august. Den gang var det så vidt jeg husker pga. tørke i Rusland, som forårsagede stigningen.
Ffarms er dels eksponeret mod planteavl og mælkeproduktion. Der var i foråret en del "rygter" omkring et antal fusioner med Ffarms, sammen med en række øvrige danske landbrugsselskaber i østeuropa, hvorved man håber på at kunne opnå yderligere synergier. Og spekulationerne i foråret er nu blevet fulgt op, i forbindelse med et møde i Danish Farmers Abroad, hvor formanden for ffarms holdte et indlæg. http://www.maskinbladet.dk/artikel/first-farms-pa-frierfodder
Jeg er enig I at ffarms har skuffet siden de kom på børsen, men de seneste par år, er de i det mindste begyndt at tjene penge. Tilbage i 2010 fyrede man direktøren, hvilket har set ud til at hjælpe. Tilbage i ultimo 2009 omtalte jeg bl.a. den dårlige ledelse i en tråd: http://www.proinvestor.com/boards/20844/Er-direktoeren-mon-god-nok???
Herefter blev den daværende næstformand for bestyrelsen Per Villumsen indsat som direktør ind til primo 2012, hvor man ansatte Anders H. Nørgaard. Anders kom fra en stilling i Eskelund A/S, som driver et af danmarks største producenter af slagtesvin. Her udover er de medejer af store farme i Tjekkiet og Slovakiet, sammen med en række andre store danske landmænd, som bl.a. tæller en del af ejerkredsen i Polen Invest - det tidligere Poldanor, som nok er et af de bedst drevne landbrugsselskaber i udlandet.
Poldanor, som dog opererer inden for svin og planteavl, har tidligere luftet tanken om at hente kapital på børsen. http://www.landbrugsavisen.dk/Nyheder/Netnyheder/2011/4/20/Poldanorvilpaaboersen.htm
Man kan håbe på der er et sammenfald mellem ansættelse af direktøren og hans tidligere virke i Eskelund og dens selskaber.
Ved en fusion af flere selskaber, begynder Ffarms at ligne noget.
Ffarms er dels eksponeret mod planteavl og mælkeproduktion. Der var i foråret en del "rygter" omkring et antal fusioner med Ffarms, sammen med en række øvrige danske landbrugsselskaber i østeuropa, hvorved man håber på at kunne opnå yderligere synergier. Og spekulationerne i foråret er nu blevet fulgt op, i forbindelse med et møde i Danish Farmers Abroad, hvor formanden for ffarms holdte et indlæg. http://www.maskinbladet.dk/artikel/first-farms-pa-frierfodder
Jeg er enig I at ffarms har skuffet siden de kom på børsen, men de seneste par år, er de i det mindste begyndt at tjene penge. Tilbage i 2010 fyrede man direktøren, hvilket har set ud til at hjælpe. Tilbage i ultimo 2009 omtalte jeg bl.a. den dårlige ledelse i en tråd: http://www.proinvestor.com/boards/20844/Er-direktoeren-mon-god-nok???
Herefter blev den daværende næstformand for bestyrelsen Per Villumsen indsat som direktør ind til primo 2012, hvor man ansatte Anders H. Nørgaard. Anders kom fra en stilling i Eskelund A/S, som driver et af danmarks største producenter af slagtesvin. Her udover er de medejer af store farme i Tjekkiet og Slovakiet, sammen med en række andre store danske landmænd, som bl.a. tæller en del af ejerkredsen i Polen Invest - det tidligere Poldanor, som nok er et af de bedst drevne landbrugsselskaber i udlandet.
Poldanor, som dog opererer inden for svin og planteavl, har tidligere luftet tanken om at hente kapital på børsen. http://www.landbrugsavisen.dk/Nyheder/Netnyheder/2011/4/20/Poldanorvilpaaboersen.htm
Man kan håbe på der er et sammenfald mellem ansættelse af direktøren og hans tidligere virke i Eskelund og dens selskaber.
Ved en fusion af flere selskaber, begynder Ffarms at ligne noget.
24/7 2012 11:43 Kristensen 059331 Henrik Hougaard som er bestyrelsesformand i FirstFarms og ejer af bl.a. Skiold-koncernen har så vidt jeg husker købt betydeligt op af aktier i Ffarms.
24/7 2012 17:20 Kristensen 059334 BEF's resultater er ikke noget at prale af, de har endnu ikke tjent penge.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4N3O94/1987002268x0x541936/8C02E419-A385-4EB0-9CC9-13588607C0D8/BEF_5Y_Fin_Overview.pdf
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4N3O94/1987002268x0x541936/8C02E419-A385-4EB0-9CC9-13588607C0D8/BEF_5Y_Fin_Overview.pdf
Faldt over denne notits fra svenske DI: http://www.di.se/artiklar/2012/7/24/jackpott-for-jordbruksaktier/
- turin
- turin
25/7 2012 12:58 Kristensen 159348 Fandt den artikel som jeg havde læst i foråret omkring fusioner/opkøb med First Farms. Og potentialet er stort idet medlemmerne af DFA (Danish Farmers Abroad) driver omkring 350.000 haktar og producerer omkring 2,5 mio. slagtesvin uden for Danmark, hvoraf størstedelen er koncentreret omkring netop Østeuropa.
http://www.food-supply.dk/article/view/77506/first_farms_vil_ekspandere_i_osteuropa
Tror godt der vi kan forvente der kommer til at ske noget på denne front i løbet af efteråret. Spørgsmålet er så, om det så også bliver nødvendigt med en kapitalforhøjelse.
http://www.food-supply.dk/article/view/77506/first_farms_vil_ekspandere_i_osteuropa
Tror godt der vi kan forvente der kommer til at ske noget på denne front i løbet af efteråret. Spørgsmålet er så, om det så også bliver nødvendigt med en kapitalforhøjelse.
26/7 2012 00:06 Okonomen 059361 Du spørger om det er tid til at investere i ffarms? Efter at have læst jeres spændende debat så ville jeg da lige gå ind og kigge lidt med TA.
Aktien har dannet Golden Cross på 50 og 10 dages glidende gennemsnit den 23. juli - Dog er der ikke dannet Golden Cross på 200 og på 50 dages glidende gennemsnit endnu, men der ser ud til at være dannet J-formation for det korte glidende gennemsnit og det kan være et tegn på et kommende Golden Cross. Samtidig har macd brudt over signallinjen opad og disse tegn kunne ende i en købsanbefaling, men RSI på ca 82 viser, at aktien pt kan være overkøbt og bør få en korrektion. Hvor langt den skal ned kan jeg ikke helt vurdere ud fra kursudviklingen. Hvis den gamle modstandstop nu bliver bund grundet børspsykologi så er den nye bund 42,5
discalimer: Jeg er ikke en avanceret og erfaren teknisk analytiker. Jeg vil gerne have sparket en lille snak igang om jeg kan have ret eller om en mere erfaren TA'er kan komme med en anden vurdering og konklusion ud fra TA?
Aktien har dannet Golden Cross på 50 og 10 dages glidende gennemsnit den 23. juli - Dog er der ikke dannet Golden Cross på 200 og på 50 dages glidende gennemsnit endnu, men der ser ud til at være dannet J-formation for det korte glidende gennemsnit og det kan være et tegn på et kommende Golden Cross. Samtidig har macd brudt over signallinjen opad og disse tegn kunne ende i en købsanbefaling, men RSI på ca 82 viser, at aktien pt kan være overkøbt og bør få en korrektion. Hvor langt den skal ned kan jeg ikke helt vurdere ud fra kursudviklingen. Hvis den gamle modstandstop nu bliver bund grundet børspsykologi så er den nye bund 42,5
discalimer: Jeg er ikke en avanceret og erfaren teknisk analytiker. Jeg vil gerne have sparket en lille snak igang om jeg kan have ret eller om en mere erfaren TA'er kan komme med en anden vurdering og konklusion ud fra TA?
