Market update 20.november.2014.
This update goes through most of the Asset classes and a lot of Charts.
We could have an interesting set up in the Currency marked but more on that later in the update.
Patterns of interest in this update.
http://www.chartpatterns.com/images/2flgpnts.gif
Stock / bond Ratio - when to be placed in Stocks vs. Bonds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$UST&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60526537510&a=258204171&r=1416772731835&cmd=print
In alphabetical order we will start with Agriculturals.
On the monthly chart of the Agricultural Index - Spot Price we had a top in 2011 and prices has been in downtrend since.
In October this year we hit the bottom of the channel and we now see some bounce upwards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GKX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p24788608551&a=248806248&r=1415991400068&cmd=print
Livestock Index - Spot Price is in uptrend and it is accelerating. We could see a Top in 2015 - 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GVX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p36240649770&a=248806245&r=1415991757504&cmd=print
Cycle in Soybeans hit bottom in October. But uptrend will only last a few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJASY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p57934504075&a=265779043&r=1415992222494&cmd=print
Corn.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CORN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p67745334806&a=258834029&r=1415992388428&cmd=print
Wheat.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WHEAT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25199165099&a=267559725&r=1415992468023&cmd=print
Bonds.
A Few Charts on Bonds and Yield.
First we will have a chart on 10 Year Treasure Yield. Do we have a possible Bull-flag here ?
This rise in 10 Year Yield is close related to the final rise in Lagging Indicator before next recession.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p23524608570&a=222796989&r=1415992951120&cmd=print
Cycle in 30 Year bond Price.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USB&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p53263513541&a=235025241&r=1415993235921&cmd=print
30 Year bond Yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=M&st=1986-01-13&en=today&id=p46376255242&a=331626627&r=1415994359396&cmd=print
2, 5, 10 and 30 Year Yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1415994786497&cmd=print
Some Commodity Charts.
Reuters CRB (CCI) finally broke Fibonacci support and are heading south.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CCI&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p88275313805&a=270378628&r=1415995309152&cmd=print
CRB-Commodity Index with sHs - pattern and Martin Prings Inflation Index turning South.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!PRII&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10606342747&a=369860779&r=1413148675010&cmd=print
Crude Oil with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p78084205633&a=377001313&r=1416384531403&cmd=print
Uranium has been depressed for a long time and might be ready for a tour to the upside.
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Cayman-Liberty-Forum/831/2014-11-17/Gold-To-Head-Higher-But-Theres-A-New-Metal-To-Watch---Cayman-Speaker
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NLR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p33553430706&a=309075018&r=1416334098197&cmd=print
Aluminum index. Not all metals are in downtrend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSAL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p63960789798&a=328730993&r=1416768955254&cmd=print
And now to Currencies.
Germany has done quite well since the financial Crisis and been a Locomotive on the European Train. Some key reasons that have given Germany
some advantages to other Countries.
1. Weak Countries around Germany has put pressure on the Value of the Euro currency and kept it relatively low. That is one of the reasons
why Germany hasn´t made too much pressure on its neighbors. The Value of the Euro would have been much higher if it only reflected Germany´s economy.
And a higher Value on the Euro would have made it hard for Germany to compete on the world marked.
2. Germany has been able to keep wages relative low by importing cheap labor from Eastern Europe.
3. Germany has made some reforms and among the PIIGS countries it is only Ireland that have actually made reforms and made its way out of the crisis. And France is still behind.
I think we could have an interesting setup in the next Chart on Euro (Philadelphia index) with a possible Bull-flag.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p07591046369&a=350647514&r=1415997681059&cmd=print
Dollar Index is on the rise but will soon head in to resistance and it has to overcome this resistance. Otherwise we could have a sHs pattern in the Dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&st=1987-01-01&en=2015-03-29&id=p76465731849&a=232898608&r=1415998329149&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1416165711835&cmd=print
This is contrary to what everybody else see in the Currency marked at the moment and why should the Euro become stronger ?
The reason could be that some of the weak countries in southern Europe leave the Euro-Currency as Hans Werner Sinn suggests in his presentation of his just released new book: The Euro Trap.
Another key could be that the weak countries finally decide to make the hard needed reforms that's necessary to rebuild these countries economy.
In this video you can watch his presentation on his new book.
Next chart is the Monthly Swiss Franc (Philadelphia index).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XSF&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p31076666761&a=284775146&r=1415999444064&cmd=print
Market breath charts.
% of stocks above 50 MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88572352935&a=228392746&r=1416772345414&cmd=print
% of stocks above 200 MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31813833893&a=228395171&r=1416772427810&cmd=print
Indexes.
China seems to gain strength and enter a new uptrend. Will it give strength to Commodities ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33804877519&a=218762234&r=1416768341366&cmd=print
India Bombay.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BSE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72515887449&a=286300623&r=1416769435522&cmd=print
German DAX with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48356590008&a=298477474&r=1416769524789&cmd=print
SP-500 with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43035655412&a=297383782&r=1416769621922&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p71828158933&a=212096943&r=1416769985528&cmd=print
Wilshire 5000.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1416771763316&cmd=print
Something else of interest.
Demographics.
Harry Dent has done some research on Demographics on Countries around the World. And with the use of Demographics you can predict
Spending waves in each Country. As an example Chinas spending wave made a top in 2012.
http://www.hsdent.com/uploads/DownloadDoc/general/swiw.pdf
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Demographic-Cliff-Survive-Deflation-2014-2019/dp/1591847273/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416771038&sr=8-1&keywords=demographic+cliff
Green energy bubble. Per Wimmer.
War cycles.
1 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart3s.gif
2 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart2s.gif
3 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart1s.gif
Regards
nfø
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786
This update goes through most of the Asset classes and a lot of Charts.
We could have an interesting set up in the Currency marked but more on that later in the update.
Patterns of interest in this update.
http://www.chartpatterns.com/images/2flgpnts.gif
Stock / bond Ratio - when to be placed in Stocks vs. Bonds.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$UST&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60526537510&a=258204171&r=1416772731835&cmd=print
In alphabetical order we will start with Agriculturals.
On the monthly chart of the Agricultural Index - Spot Price we had a top in 2011 and prices has been in downtrend since.
In October this year we hit the bottom of the channel and we now see some bounce upwards.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GKX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p24788608551&a=248806248&r=1415991400068&cmd=print
Livestock Index - Spot Price is in uptrend and it is accelerating. We could see a Top in 2015 - 2016.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GVX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p36240649770&a=248806245&r=1415991757504&cmd=print
Cycle in Soybeans hit bottom in October. But uptrend will only last a few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJASY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p57934504075&a=265779043&r=1415992222494&cmd=print
Corn.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CORN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p67745334806&a=258834029&r=1415992388428&cmd=print
Wheat.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WHEAT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25199165099&a=267559725&r=1415992468023&cmd=print
Bonds.
A Few Charts on Bonds and Yield.
First we will have a chart on 10 Year Treasure Yield. Do we have a possible Bull-flag here ?
This rise in 10 Year Yield is close related to the final rise in Lagging Indicator before next recession.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TNX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p23524608570&a=222796989&r=1415992951120&cmd=print
Cycle in 30 Year bond Price.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USB&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p53263513541&a=235025241&r=1415993235921&cmd=print
30 Year bond Yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=M&st=1986-01-13&en=today&id=p46376255242&a=331626627&r=1415994359396&cmd=print
2, 5, 10 and 30 Year Yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$UST30Y&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38215461435&a=334964783&r=1415994786497&cmd=print
Some Commodity Charts.
Reuters CRB (CCI) finally broke Fibonacci support and are heading south.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CCI&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p88275313805&a=270378628&r=1415995309152&cmd=print
CRB-Commodity Index with sHs - pattern and Martin Prings Inflation Index turning South.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!PRII&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10606342747&a=369860779&r=1413148675010&cmd=print
Crude Oil with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p78084205633&a=377001313&r=1416384531403&cmd=print
Uranium has been depressed for a long time and might be ready for a tour to the upside.
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Cayman-Liberty-Forum/831/2014-11-17/Gold-To-Head-Higher-But-Theres-A-New-Metal-To-Watch---Cayman-Speaker
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NLR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p33553430706&a=309075018&r=1416334098197&cmd=print
Aluminum index. Not all metals are in downtrend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DJUSAL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p63960789798&a=328730993&r=1416768955254&cmd=print
And now to Currencies.
Germany has done quite well since the financial Crisis and been a Locomotive on the European Train. Some key reasons that have given Germany
some advantages to other Countries.
1. Weak Countries around Germany has put pressure on the Value of the Euro currency and kept it relatively low. That is one of the reasons
why Germany hasn´t made too much pressure on its neighbors. The Value of the Euro would have been much higher if it only reflected Germany´s economy.
And a higher Value on the Euro would have made it hard for Germany to compete on the world marked.
2. Germany has been able to keep wages relative low by importing cheap labor from Eastern Europe.
3. Germany has made some reforms and among the PIIGS countries it is only Ireland that have actually made reforms and made its way out of the crisis. And France is still behind.
I think we could have an interesting setup in the next Chart on Euro (Philadelphia index) with a possible Bull-flag.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XEU&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p07591046369&a=350647514&r=1415997681059&cmd=print
Dollar Index is on the rise but will soon head in to resistance and it has to overcome this resistance. Otherwise we could have a sHs pattern in the Dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=M&st=1987-01-01&en=2015-03-29&id=p76465731849&a=232898608&r=1415998329149&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&st=2004-10-02&en=today&id=p58590645760&a=209968877&r=1416165711835&cmd=print
This is contrary to what everybody else see in the Currency marked at the moment and why should the Euro become stronger ?
The reason could be that some of the weak countries in southern Europe leave the Euro-Currency as Hans Werner Sinn suggests in his presentation of his just released new book: The Euro Trap.
Another key could be that the weak countries finally decide to make the hard needed reforms that's necessary to rebuild these countries economy.
In this video you can watch his presentation on his new book.
Next chart is the Monthly Swiss Franc (Philadelphia index).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XSF&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p31076666761&a=284775146&r=1415999444064&cmd=print
Market breath charts.
% of stocks above 50 MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p88572352935&a=228392746&r=1416772345414&cmd=print
% of stocks above 200 MA.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA200R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31813833893&a=228395171&r=1416772427810&cmd=print
Indexes.
China seems to gain strength and enter a new uptrend. Will it give strength to Commodities ??
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33804877519&a=218762234&r=1416768341366&cmd=print
India Bombay.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BSE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p72515887449&a=286300623&r=1416769435522&cmd=print
German DAX with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p48356590008&a=298477474&r=1416769524789&cmd=print
SP-500 with Fibonacci Levels.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p43035655412&a=297383782&r=1416769621922&cmd=print
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p71828158933&a=212096943&r=1416769985528&cmd=print
Wilshire 5000.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WLSH&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p17178908563&a=217859758&r=1416771763316&cmd=print
Something else of interest.
Demographics.
Harry Dent has done some research on Demographics on Countries around the World. And with the use of Demographics you can predict
Spending waves in each Country. As an example Chinas spending wave made a top in 2012.
http://www.hsdent.com/uploads/DownloadDoc/general/swiw.pdf
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Demographic-Cliff-Survive-Deflation-2014-2019/dp/1591847273/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1416771038&sr=8-1&keywords=demographic+cliff
Green energy bubble. Per Wimmer.
War cycles.
1 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart3s.gif
2 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart2s.gif
3 - http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2654/chart1s.gif
Regards
nfø
https://www.facebook.com/pages/Teknisk-Analyse-TA-Business-cycles/168152833231786
