****** GENMAB - THE TALE OF THE LITTLE BOY THAT CRIED WOLF ******
This article seeks to explain why Genmab will likely fall prey to a takeover before 2016 comes to an end. It thereby covers a topic that has become enigmatic at best and highly controversial or even laughable at worst. The apparent ambiguity of the M&A topic, however, isn't discomforting enough to discourage your author from publishing further deliberations on the ideas originally described in the article "Wake Up Denmark - The big bad wolf is coming". Anyone who missed this article and now feels an urge to read it can visit: http://inrater.com/topic/wake-up-denmark-the-big-bad-wolf-is-coming/
A DISCLAIMER - YOURS TRULY IS FULLY LOADED WITH GENMAB SHARES
Let me introduce myself before we continue. I'm a simple private investor with a rather large holding of Genmab shares. I have a strong and versatile educational background which includes both graduate degrees and postgraduate research in finance, international business, marketing and organizational theory. It is my relentless dedication to cross-disciplinary and lifelong learning that enables me to piece together puzzles and sometimes obtain a slight investment edge. I'm utilizing a simple form of "strategic sense-making" that has allowed me to outperform the market. My approach might sound fancy but I'm essentially just acknowledging my limited abilities. I'm clearly not qualified to do complicated financial and quantitative analysis better than the high paid analysts and quants at leading financial institutions. Biotech investments further requires much effort devoted to understanding complicated aspect of clinical research and I'm not a biochemist. So, I also rely on expert opinions for delivering these kind of technical insights. I'm in other words poorly qualified to discuss nitty gritty details, but I do better when it comes to connecting the dots and seeing the big picture.
BREAKING FREE FROM THE RAT RACE AND SEEING THE WORLD WITH MORE CLARITY
The bestselling author Nassim Taleb has articulated my approach to investing better than I could ever do it myself. Nassim Taleb urges his readers to mute their television when watching Bloomberg or CNBC. He suggests that this will allow you to see through the empty words and observe the people on the screen more deeply. You will then realize how most of the so called experts are clueless about the short-term market movements that they are so busy explaining and justifying. Nassim Taleb further recommends that you refrain from watching the news or even reading daily newspapers with too much focus on current events. He vividly and compellingly explains how people and in particular "experts" gets caught up in a rats race of meaningless processing meaningless details. Sight of the big picture is lost and the mega trends that determines the overall market movements are missed. He concludes that most newspapers and sources of daily news merely offers noise that clouds your mind and obscures your ability to see the big picture.
Take any equity report on Genmab and consider how much time and energy went into the financial modelling of a single point in the advanced SOTP (sum-of-the-parts) analysis that forms the basis of the DCF (discounted cash flow) calculation. Then consider how few arguments you find to justify that the appropriate WACC (weighted average cost of capital) has been chosen. Even a minor change in WACC has a huge impact on the NPV(net present value). Let's consult a specific example by looking at the excellent equity report of Danske Bank. Just a little bit of financial tinkering shows us that the brilliant equity analyst Thomas Bowers will be able to increase his target on Genmab by roughly 25% if he simply decreases his WACC from 9% to 8% while keeping all other estimate constant. A bit more tinkering will even show how the target price will move exponentially higher if we decrease the WACC further.
APPLYING THE INCREASED CLARITY TO GLIMPSE THE TRUE VALUE OF GENMAB
Equity analysts are so busy attending fancy conferences like ASH and ASCO meanwhile also spending considerable time going to various investor presentations and road shows. They spend days or even weeks crunching numbers and building detailed forecasts. However, the accuracy and thereby the importance of this work becomes almost meaningless once you start to think about how tiny change in arbitrary assumptions sometimes changes everything radically. So what does this mean? Shouldn't you listen to what the equity analysts are saying? Well, the market is listening and this often tends to make share prices move towards the consensus as forecasted by the analysts. So, the effect of self fulfilling prophecies makes it very difficult to ignore the equity analysts. You should instead just be aware of the weaknesses that are associated with following the targets of "the established" equity analysts.
We are very lucky when it comes to Genmab. We namely have certain independent market observers who possess extraordinary insights to the equity story of Genmab. The striking thing is that they are busy pitching the exact same story as presented here. Think, for example, of Genmab's co-founder Florian Schönharting. He has continuously explained us that the equity analysts are afraid of stepping out of their comfort zone and publishing reports that encompass the true scope of strategic value. Florian Schönharting has, since ASH 2015, repeatedly stated that the fair value of Genmab should allow us to see equity reports with targets hovering at or above 2000 DKK per share. The perspective that Florian Schönharting offers is one that isn't confined by the usual slavery of excel-sheets based forecasts. But, then again he is also no one less than the "grand old man" of Danish biotech and one of the founding fathers of our beloved investment object.
Other observers with a similar level of independence from the established network of what constitutes "the financial industry" have also made extremely bullish calls. Among these is the renowned danish biotech expert Peter Aabo who was the latest to move into "super bull" territory by setting a target of up to 1600 DKK on the Genmab share.
THE FACTORS THAT CAN UNLOCK THE TRUE VALUE OF GENMAB
So what further explains the huge disconnect between the "established" equity analysts and the independent super bulls? The established analysts are simply afraid of moving to far away from the consensus of the market and they are therefore slowly adjusting the parameters of their research to conveniently and quietly appreciate their targets without the risk of outpacing the market and creating a too large value gap. They are in other words conforming to the mean as sticking out their neck can be costly.
True game-changing moments only arise when someone with the necessary influence, the required financial muscles and strong determination decides to act based on the true strategic value. This is essentially what happens when acquisition premiums move up to 100% or even more in rare cases. The rubbish consensus which prevailed and inhibited the realization of a complete valuation is disregarded as utter nonsense by the acquiring party who essentially pays for true strategic value and thereby closes the value gap.
Do you see the writing on the wall? We have several larger players from the pharmaceutical industry with sufficiently deep insights to fully comprehend the massive strategic value that Genmab offers them. These companies will already be known to some of the readers. But, who they are -besides the leader of the wolf pack (Janssen Pharmaceuticals NV)- is really not a key focus in this article.
UNLEASHING THE WOLF
The opening statement promised controversy, so let's hurry up and deliver on this enticing promise right away. Genmab is currently for sale! Any attempts by the management to reject this is merely a classical corporate charade that is played to ensure the interest of the shareholders.
Articulating the elephant in the room so clearly might discourage some from continuing to read. If you are one of those that are thinking about discontinuing now, then you are properly anticipating that the following is going to be far too colorful and speculative for your taste. Some will even say that this is understandable as the topic of an imminent acquisition has become rather controversial as also stated in the beginning of this article. However, the precariousness of a potential takeover mainly arises as the investor community is fed up with the constant trumpeting of takeover rumours. This fatigue is sad as it basically represents a fallacy. You simply can't use what didn't happen yesterday to justify that it isn't going to happen tomorrow. This article seeks to peer deeper into the likelihood of a future takeover and offer new unpretentious arguments in the process. The ambition goes as far as to convince some the most hardheaded takeover opponents.
THE FIRST TAKEOVER RUMOURS AND A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE
We have all heard it several times. The talk of a potential acquisition has been all the rage for quite a while now. However, you might not remember that the first serious whispers of a looming takeover actually begun as far back as when Jan van der Winkel started his tenure as CEO. The chair of the CEO had barely cooled down from the heated departure of Lisa Drakeman when the first alarm bells were rung. Genmab was a true ugly duckling back then. The company was struggling to secure short-term survival due to a major liquidity crisis that surfaced in the wake of "Zaltumumab" failing in late stage clinical trials. The "ice-queen" Lisa Drakeman had over-optimistically invested an obscene sum of roughly 1 billion DKK in a turnkey factory that stood ready to produce Zaltumumab. This was unfortunately before the drug failed late stage clinical trials obliterating any chance of getting FDA's stamp of approval. This blatant management mistake did not only bring Genmab close to the brink of bankruptcy. The misery also sparked the arrival of the first serious takeover rumours. Several observers close to the company speculated that Glaxosmithkline would exploit the dire calamity of Genmab to buy the company.
This was, by the way, back in the days when I wrote an article that described Genmab as an ugly duckling and proposed that the company could potentially re-emerge as a beautiful swan one day when the new CEO (Jan van der Winkel) had gotten his kingdom securely under control. I still clearly remember how I urged investors to get aboard the train as it was about to leave and hurdle towards the land of fairytales with Jan van der Winkel as the driver setting the pace. Walking down memory lane, I kindly ask you to ignore the hideous Danish "Jantelov" as everyone that stepped aboard the train back then can now confidently exclaim: "...Oh boy, were we right..". We got nothing short of a real-life fairy tale and the best part is that we still miss to see the final and most exciting chapter unfold.
PUTTING ALL THE CHIPS ON THE TABLE
Enough shameless self-promotion. It suffices to conclude that I have benefitted from a healthy dose of luck in calling the investment case so far. I remain very bullish as I still firmly believe in my one-year-old +$10 billion topsales forecast for DARZALEX. A growing number has now joined me in this believe as an increasing array of compelling evidence mounts and continues to build the foundation of a future MEGA BLOCKBUSTER. This is of course happening, not at least, thanks to the strong dedication of Janssen who has been the best possible partner for Genmab until now.
My bullishness is basically so extreme that I have placed all my chips on the table in an all-in bet for a takeover happening before the end of this year. The stakes involved in writing this are thus outrageously high. I literally feel that I'm juggling between the odds of either being ridiculed or taking home the big prize as the strategist who ingeniously managed to uncover the truth and make an absolute killing in the process. The flipside of the coin doesn't scare me as the risk-reward perspective is very favourable. That is also the reason why you may rest assured that my chips stay on the table regardless of the high stakes involved in this all-in bullish move. Let's not worry too much about the flipside of the coin now. Let's instead worry about calling the bluff of the management who are clearly in the initial phase of covertly preparing Genmab for a sale and conditioning the shareholders for a coming bid. The prefered acquire would undoubtedly be Janssen. But, there are also others which could become likely first-movers, so a blue sky scenario could realistically include the prospects of an outright bidding war. It is premature to start talk about the bidders before we fully understand why an acquisition is in the cards for Genmab.
Granted, this might seem like very speculative reflections but, we have just bared witness to an astonishing event that clearly hints at M&A actions lurking right around the corner. The market has although largely chosen to ignore the clear hints received. This is an example of irrational behaviour and it is a symptom that clearly underlines how the market has become immune to takeover-talks. Years of persistent rumors and a continuous buzz from the takeover proponents has caused an investor fatigue that paralyzes the market as we are essentially very close to getting the ball rolling. You should ask yourself one very important question at this point of time. Who has the possibility to exploit and benefit from this situation? Try to let this question linger in the back of your mind before we will jointly return to it at the end of this article.
THE BOY THAT CRIED WOLF
Think of the fable about the "little boy who cried wolf". It is a tale about a shepherd boy who repeatedly fools nearby villagers into thinking that the wolf is coming to take his flock of sheep. The sheep then finally winds up being eaten by the wolf as none of the villagers believes the boy when he warns about a real wolf. Let me spell it out for you. Genmab is our sheep, the little boy embodies the M&A alarm bells, the villagers represents the market and our wolf is the acquiring party.
EXAMPLES OF STEPPING STONES ON THE PATH TOWARDS COLLECTIVE DENIAL
Let it be said immediately, I have participated in driving the sentiment of the market towards the same state of mind as the villagers in our fable. However, this was done in a good faith and with sincere motives. Other important market players have participated more disdainfully in a game of unblushingly promoting the takeover scenario. They are thus guilty on an equal footing with the shepherd boy from our fable. Remember how Michael Novod from Nordea included an alternative M&A target in an analysis published last year. Remember how Goldman Sachs amazingly decided to include a weighted part of their target from a seemingly arbitrarily established potential acquisition price of 1500 DKK. Remember how the Danish pension giant ATP -very strangely- suddenly started talking publicly about a strategy for mitigating the risk of a takeover. Think about Jeffries who recently issued a report which identified Genmab as a hot acquisition target. The list of examples goes on and on. We have generally witnessed so many small hints of an impending takeover that we have a giant chorus of shepherds singing about the advent of the wolf. The magnitude and scope of the clues available are thus so overwhelming that we need to narrow our focus. This is why all of our attention is soon turned to a earthshattering event that took place in Amsterdam recently. It is this event that will be used as our focal point in the quest to understand why Genmab won't survive 2016 as a separate legal entity.
Our key takeaway from the fable of the boy that cried wolf is so far that 99% of the market are in collective state of denial about the immense and rapid value creation that is ongoing at Genmab. The market is in a "villager" state of mind and this prevents the vast majority of shareholders from seeing the forest through the trees. Exactly this phenomenon is also what constitutes your chance to invest with an edge. You can currently buy Genmab shares with what corresponds to a free call option on a takeover premium. This window of opportunity ought to close as the stock market eventually wakes up and start to price in the increased likelihood of a takeover. You will therefore need to move fast if you want to exploit the prevailing market inefficiency. The stigmatized aurora has so far successfully extinguished every M&A fire that was lid. Someone will although manage to light a fire that persists and it very quickly gets scorchingly hot once this happen.
NO SMOKE WITHOUT A FIRE AND THE CEO THAT ALSO SUDDENLY STARTED CRYING WOLF
Our villagers are only seeing a very faint pouf of smoke before it quickly evaporates each time someone has been crying wolf. But, my dear fellow investors, please do remember that there is never smoke without a fire smoldering somewhere.
The smoldering fire became much more evident as the stakes in our fable were abruptly raised when the king himself entered the scene. Our CEO amazingly became part of the smoke puffing cast when he verbalized the existence of a wolf at a small investor meeting held in Amsterdam on the 09/03-2016. Jan van der Winkel was actually exhaling such thick smoke that one might wonder if he visited one of those famous "coffee shops" which Amsterdam is so notoriously known for. For the sake of clarity, our CEO was clearly not high on substances that are illegal in most jurisdictions outside of the Netherlands. But. he must have been high on naturally induced endorphins as he would otherwise not have been inclined to talk so freely as he did about takeovers and acquisition premiums. However, let's not focus too much upon what "floats the boat" of our CEO when visiting his home country. Let's instead focus on what he actually said as the words he used truly makes his speech a "landmark presentation" in communication terms.
It was the landmark presentation that secured our CEO a lead role in our fable. His choice of words during the presentation propelled him safely into a lead role among our big group of shepherds. Jan van der Winkel was not just crying wolf like the rest of the shepherds. No, he was actually screaming it from the top of his lungs. The loud noise that emanated from the meeting was so convincingly clear that it constitutes a solid proof of assumptions for those who are already firm believers of the takeover hypothesis. The problem is that many villagers continues to defy all logic and vigorously reject the likelihood of a takeover even after they have witnessed the king himself screaming wolf. This means that the smoke from the M&A fire which Jan van der Winkel tried to ignite didn't even reach the treetops and the market therefore completely missed the boat.
Mr Rob Gossens who is an acclaimed journalist from the most prominent dutch newspaper (De Telegraaf) was participating in the meeting where Jan van der Winkel held his landmark presentation. The CEO was not aware that a journalist was participating and his adverse reaction once he learned about this makes it fair to assume that he was indeed speaking more freely than usual. Rob Gossens had not been immunized by the prevailing aurora of stigmatization that stifles all Genmab related M&A buzz. So we are essentially very lucky that he was present to capture the full scope of the startling remarks that Jan van der Winkel was iterating during his presentation.
THE WOLF AS ARTICULATED BY JAN VAN DER WINKEL
Rob Gossens was so mesmerized by what he was hearing that he decided to focus heavily upon the M&A hints in an article that he wrote shortly after the meeting. It is only thanks to this article that we have know how Jan van der Winkel effectively jumped out of the closet and confirmed the likelihood of a takeover by Janssen.
The article was published in dutch and it thus failed to garner the international awareness that it deserved. It is difficult to replicate the exact messages of all the minuscule details without risking to alter the meaning a bit. This risk of slippage has been mitigated by seeking the advice of the journalist directly. Mr Rob Gossens has been consulted several times concerning the article and its quotes. This allowed Rob Gossens to repeatedly confirm that the content of the article represents an accurate, valid and honest account of what was said during the investor meeting. Kindly notice how the following direct citations from the article primarily focuses on republishing explicit quotes from Jan van der Winkel:
-----Start of citation from "Telegraaf"-----
Van Winkel ignites the fire by referring to the fact that January was the worst month ever for biotech. "This is a good moment to get onboard". He subsequently continues to appraise his company Genmab that has a fabulous drug with its cancer medicine Darzalex.
The market has acknowledged Genmab as ripe for takeover for two years now. Van der Winkel is not retracting the rumors. He, to the contrary, refers to the takeover of Pharmacyclics by Abbvie for 21B USD. Johnson and Johnson were outsmarted by this a year ago. Van de Winkel: "J&J won't let this happen again. They even have 35B "stored" overseas. A takeover is becoming more and more appealing to them"."Not that I want to let go of Genmab" he continues. But if it comes that far, then it will be a friendly takeover. However, I expect a premium of 100% on the current share price."
-----End of citation from "Telegraaf"-----
The above statements were so astonishing that they compelled your author to call the journalist immediately upon having read the original newspaper article. The conversation paved the way for an understanding of the explicit circumstances under which the quotes were obtained. It became clear how Jan van der Winkel was largely unprompted and acted independently when making the statements. The level of autonomy is significant as it truly underscores how strategically amazing the applied rhetoric is.
Let's now spend a couple of minutes investigating and discussing the quotes in a bit more detail. Jan van der Winkel starts his amazing journey into wolf territory by emphasizing that it is a historical attractive moment to buy biotech now that we are in the wake of the most ferocious biotech correction ever. This remark does, at face value, not seem particularly remarkable. But, it certainly becomes very remarkable once considering that it was used to set the scene for what followed. A CEO from a biotech firm should generally refrain from offering unprompted comments about the state of the biotech sector at gatherings that are held exclusively for biotech investors. It has very limited relevance as the risk remains the same across the entire sector. The risk is unrelated to the unique and specific long term equity story that the CEO should focus upon promoting instead.
Jan van der Winkel continues his talk and utters something about the existence of persistent acquisition rumors. If this isn't already controversial, well then it truly does become controversial once the next breath of air is used to state that the speculations can't be taken off the table. This is an absolutely shocking remark from a CEO that has previously remained very conservative and muted whenever being asked about M&A rumors!
There is no doubt that a similar statement from an american CEO would have resulted in an almost instantaneous reaction. A buying frenzy often takes place within minutes after such remarks disseminates to the US stock exchange. It must be said that an upswing on this basis would tend to exist only as a short-lived spike unless further M&A indications emerges. The question is not how big a reaction we should have seen. It is more a discussion of the fact that we should have seen some reaction. However, the stock price didn't even budge the slightest bit after the news of the landmark presentation hit the market.
Yet the most intriguing signal from Amsterdam is seen in the way that Jan van der Winkel decided to promote a sense of takeover-urgency. He cleverly underlines that Janssen has a burning platform due to historical events that really doesn't concern him or Genmab. He does so by describing how a fear of losing acquisition battles prevails after Janssen failed to acquire Pharmacyclics that was stolen by Abbvie right at the finishing line. It is very inappropriate for our CEO to talk about this at an investor conference. His remarks are very peculiar and it almost seems as if he has drawn inspiration from "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming". His way of articulating and conveying a sense of urgency certainly bares a striking resemblance to the way that the Pharmacyclics affaire was originally presented in "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming".
The astonishing revelations seems to come in an almost endless stream as Jan van der Winkel continues to deliver more firepower that arms the proponents of the acquisition scenario. He actually goes as far as to promote Janssen's bulky overseas cash reservoir as evidence for the existence of the means to make a takeover bid. To ensure that people fully grasps what is likely to ensue he also takes the time to underline that the attractiveness of a takeover keeps growing.
Jan van der Winkel then finally reaches his conclusion as he states a price tag with 100% premium as a reasonable entry level ticket for any considering to embark upon a takeover. This is essentially a standard high-range biotech acquisition premium and the most surprising about his conclusion therefore is that he names this as the expected price level for "friendly takeover".
Ladies and Gentlemen, or should I say shepherds, wake up and smell the coffee, it has actually been brewing for quite a while now! The wolf is indeed coming and our sheep has no intentions of running away anymore. Jan van der Winkel has essentially just planted a huge "FOR SALE" sign right in front of your nose and you should be buying Genmab shares like there was no tomorrow. The writing on the wall is crystal clear and the accompanying artwork that we can marvel at has now been signed by the CEO. Failure to realize this means that you must belong to the group of villagers from our fable.
A HALF-HEARTED ATTEMPT AT EXTINGUISHING THE FIRE
Jan van der Winkel gave a televised interview at the annual general assembly of the shareholders. It was during this interview that he was confronted with the article from the "De Telegraaf". Let it be clear that he simply had no other choice than to repudiate the content of the article. He was refuting the content of the article so vigorously that he actually winded up laughing as he dismissed the quotes as the wishes of the journalist. This essentially leaves us in a situation where we have the word of journalist Rob Gossens against the word of Jan van der Winkel.
Your author personally talked to Rob Gossens at several occasions over the last weeks and it must be said that he isn't exactly an expert on Genmab. Rob Gossens had no knowledge of a long background with M&A rumors when he was writing his article and he certainly did not stand to gain anything from falsely fabricating the impugned quotes he published. He did in fact not even recognize the controversy of the whole matter. Rob Gossen quite simply had no idea that he was opening a true Pandora's box. His lack of knowledge goes a long way in proving that he must be truthful in his quotes. The weighty argument for the reliability and validity is that Rob Gossens did not know anything about the failed pharmacyclics acquisition before Jan van der Winkel explained about this during his presentation.
Genmab has been extremely irresolute and vague in their actions following the newspaper article. "De Telegraaf" is the biggest dutch newspaper and Genmab should have demanded a immediate retraction. Rob Gossen confirms that neither he nor his newspaper has been contacted by Genmab with such a request. Genmab should also have reacted more sharply when the danish newspaper "Børsen" followed up on the story by publishing a short summary of the article in "De Telegraaf". Genmab instead winded up giving a few very unfortunate quotes that explained how it is "business as usual" for their CEO to answer questions about hostile takeovers. This is like comparing apples with oranges as Jan van der Winkel wasn't answering questions and certainly also wasn't talking about hostile takeovers.
Jan van der Winkel is a very enthusiastic and engaged CEO. He basically has a long track record that reveals repetitive problems with keeping his enthusiasm restrained once he gets too excited. The talk in Amsterdam took place in an intimate setting with roughly 25-30 investors and Jan van der Winkel did not know that a journalist was present in the crowd. We know this as Jan van der Winkel was very surprised when Rob Gossens presented himself and explained that he was a journalist. Needles to say that Jan van der Winkel did not wish to add any further colour to the picture he had so artfully painted from the stage only minutes ago.
FATTENING THE SHEEP
Villagers or not, some of you might surprisingly still doubt about the imminent arrival of the wolf. Such feelings of disbelief can basically only be rationalized if they are justified on the basis of lacking of evidence. The average villager will properly argue that a single presentation and the quick slip of a tongue plus the subjective interpretations of a journalist constitutes an insufficient basis for putting all their eggs in one basket. However, there is plenty of unrelated evidence that is mounting up. Remember how we started our journey by looking at a few examples that each points towards the likelihood of an acquisition. This article has although not focussed any further on all of this yet. Have no worries, this article only represents the first in a series of publications that will gradually venture much deeper into the topic of the looming takeover and uncover why the market capitalization of Genmab currently should be at least 50% higher than what the market realizes today.
A shortcut to a more justifiable share price is although to convince the villagers. It is by activating them that we will see Genmab trading higher like in a physical manifestation of how we get more flesh on our sheep. We quickly need some extra fat before the hungry and desperate pack of wolf moves in for the kill.
A QUICK TWIST OF OUR TALE AND A HINT AT WHAT FOLLOWS
A table of content for the sequel to "the boy that cried wolf" has already been devised. The exact release date regrettably remains shrouded in mystery. The timing of the release partially depends upon unfolding and emergent market events. But, it unfortunately also depends very much upon making time in the agenda of your author to write it.
So why should you look forward to the sequel? You probably think you got it all worked out as you are sitting there with a clear image of the roles and the cast in our fable. You think that you know who the sheep is and you certainly think that you know who the wolf is. Well, the sequel to this article will offer you a quick twist on this. You will have to come to terms with the fact that things unfortunately aren't as simple as portrayed so far.
You might vaguely remember that we left one question unanswered earlier on. You had to think about it and let it linger meanwhile reading on. It was at the end of the section called "putting on all chips on the table" that the unanswered question was posed. The question is very crucial in the game of Genmab. It also represents the foundation of a twist to our tale which only the likes of Dan Brown or Stephen King would include in their writing to thicken the plot.
You have surely heard the expression "smart money" and you therefore most likely know that it is generally defined as a term for money that is invested by "those-in-the-know". Think of our shepherds again. The lineup of shepherds consist of very large multinational investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Those are in fact the very same banks whose behaviour was the subject of attention in the previous publication "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming". It is these banks and some of the other shepherds that represents the smart money in this context. They know exactly what they are doing and they are very much benefitting from keeping all of the villagers in the dark.
Recent events have profoundly underscored the motives of smart money. One could actually use this to justify an entire shift of who's who in the cast of our fable. Are you confused? Well, it is actually simple, we are just looking at a classical example of something that bares an eerie resemblance to the wolf being dressed in sheep's clothes and that will be the focus point of the sequel.
DISCLOSURE: The author holds Genmab shares and has significant personal financial interests in the company.The author isn't directly recommending anyone to buy or sell solely on the basis of the content in this publication. The author can't be held reliable for any gains or losses associated with decisions made on the basis of this publication or parts of it. The views expressed by the author are mainly subjective personal opinions and the content is based on both factual information and speculations.
This article seeks to explain why Genmab will likely fall prey to a takeover before 2016 comes to an end. It thereby covers a topic that has become enigmatic at best and highly controversial or even laughable at worst. The apparent ambiguity of the M&A topic, however, isn't discomforting enough to discourage your author from publishing further deliberations on the ideas originally described in the article "Wake Up Denmark - The big bad wolf is coming". Anyone who missed this article and now feels an urge to read it can visit: http://inrater.com/topic/wake-up-denmark-the-big-bad-wolf-is-coming/
A DISCLAIMER - YOURS TRULY IS FULLY LOADED WITH GENMAB SHARES
Let me introduce myself before we continue. I'm a simple private investor with a rather large holding of Genmab shares. I have a strong and versatile educational background which includes both graduate degrees and postgraduate research in finance, international business, marketing and organizational theory. It is my relentless dedication to cross-disciplinary and lifelong learning that enables me to piece together puzzles and sometimes obtain a slight investment edge. I'm utilizing a simple form of "strategic sense-making" that has allowed me to outperform the market. My approach might sound fancy but I'm essentially just acknowledging my limited abilities. I'm clearly not qualified to do complicated financial and quantitative analysis better than the high paid analysts and quants at leading financial institutions. Biotech investments further requires much effort devoted to understanding complicated aspect of clinical research and I'm not a biochemist. So, I also rely on expert opinions for delivering these kind of technical insights. I'm in other words poorly qualified to discuss nitty gritty details, but I do better when it comes to connecting the dots and seeing the big picture.
BREAKING FREE FROM THE RAT RACE AND SEEING THE WORLD WITH MORE CLARITY
The bestselling author Nassim Taleb has articulated my approach to investing better than I could ever do it myself. Nassim Taleb urges his readers to mute their television when watching Bloomberg or CNBC. He suggests that this will allow you to see through the empty words and observe the people on the screen more deeply. You will then realize how most of the so called experts are clueless about the short-term market movements that they are so busy explaining and justifying. Nassim Taleb further recommends that you refrain from watching the news or even reading daily newspapers with too much focus on current events. He vividly and compellingly explains how people and in particular "experts" gets caught up in a rats race of meaningless processing meaningless details. Sight of the big picture is lost and the mega trends that determines the overall market movements are missed. He concludes that most newspapers and sources of daily news merely offers noise that clouds your mind and obscures your ability to see the big picture.
Take any equity report on Genmab and consider how much time and energy went into the financial modelling of a single point in the advanced SOTP (sum-of-the-parts) analysis that forms the basis of the DCF (discounted cash flow) calculation. Then consider how few arguments you find to justify that the appropriate WACC (weighted average cost of capital) has been chosen. Even a minor change in WACC has a huge impact on the NPV(net present value). Let's consult a specific example by looking at the excellent equity report of Danske Bank. Just a little bit of financial tinkering shows us that the brilliant equity analyst Thomas Bowers will be able to increase his target on Genmab by roughly 25% if he simply decreases his WACC from 9% to 8% while keeping all other estimate constant. A bit more tinkering will even show how the target price will move exponentially higher if we decrease the WACC further.
APPLYING THE INCREASED CLARITY TO GLIMPSE THE TRUE VALUE OF GENMAB
Equity analysts are so busy attending fancy conferences like ASH and ASCO meanwhile also spending considerable time going to various investor presentations and road shows. They spend days or even weeks crunching numbers and building detailed forecasts. However, the accuracy and thereby the importance of this work becomes almost meaningless once you start to think about how tiny change in arbitrary assumptions sometimes changes everything radically. So what does this mean? Shouldn't you listen to what the equity analysts are saying? Well, the market is listening and this often tends to make share prices move towards the consensus as forecasted by the analysts. So, the effect of self fulfilling prophecies makes it very difficult to ignore the equity analysts. You should instead just be aware of the weaknesses that are associated with following the targets of "the established" equity analysts.
We are very lucky when it comes to Genmab. We namely have certain independent market observers who possess extraordinary insights to the equity story of Genmab. The striking thing is that they are busy pitching the exact same story as presented here. Think, for example, of Genmab's co-founder Florian Schönharting. He has continuously explained us that the equity analysts are afraid of stepping out of their comfort zone and publishing reports that encompass the true scope of strategic value. Florian Schönharting has, since ASH 2015, repeatedly stated that the fair value of Genmab should allow us to see equity reports with targets hovering at or above 2000 DKK per share. The perspective that Florian Schönharting offers is one that isn't confined by the usual slavery of excel-sheets based forecasts. But, then again he is also no one less than the "grand old man" of Danish biotech and one of the founding fathers of our beloved investment object.
Other observers with a similar level of independence from the established network of what constitutes "the financial industry" have also made extremely bullish calls. Among these is the renowned danish biotech expert Peter Aabo who was the latest to move into "super bull" territory by setting a target of up to 1600 DKK on the Genmab share.
THE FACTORS THAT CAN UNLOCK THE TRUE VALUE OF GENMAB
So what further explains the huge disconnect between the "established" equity analysts and the independent super bulls? The established analysts are simply afraid of moving to far away from the consensus of the market and they are therefore slowly adjusting the parameters of their research to conveniently and quietly appreciate their targets without the risk of outpacing the market and creating a too large value gap. They are in other words conforming to the mean as sticking out their neck can be costly.
True game-changing moments only arise when someone with the necessary influence, the required financial muscles and strong determination decides to act based on the true strategic value. This is essentially what happens when acquisition premiums move up to 100% or even more in rare cases. The rubbish consensus which prevailed and inhibited the realization of a complete valuation is disregarded as utter nonsense by the acquiring party who essentially pays for true strategic value and thereby closes the value gap.
Do you see the writing on the wall? We have several larger players from the pharmaceutical industry with sufficiently deep insights to fully comprehend the massive strategic value that Genmab offers them. These companies will already be known to some of the readers. But, who they are -besides the leader of the wolf pack (Janssen Pharmaceuticals NV)- is really not a key focus in this article.
UNLEASHING THE WOLF
The opening statement promised controversy, so let's hurry up and deliver on this enticing promise right away. Genmab is currently for sale! Any attempts by the management to reject this is merely a classical corporate charade that is played to ensure the interest of the shareholders.
Articulating the elephant in the room so clearly might discourage some from continuing to read. If you are one of those that are thinking about discontinuing now, then you are properly anticipating that the following is going to be far too colorful and speculative for your taste. Some will even say that this is understandable as the topic of an imminent acquisition has become rather controversial as also stated in the beginning of this article. However, the precariousness of a potential takeover mainly arises as the investor community is fed up with the constant trumpeting of takeover rumours. This fatigue is sad as it basically represents a fallacy. You simply can't use what didn't happen yesterday to justify that it isn't going to happen tomorrow. This article seeks to peer deeper into the likelihood of a future takeover and offer new unpretentious arguments in the process. The ambition goes as far as to convince some the most hardheaded takeover opponents.
THE FIRST TAKEOVER RUMOURS AND A TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE
We have all heard it several times. The talk of a potential acquisition has been all the rage for quite a while now. However, you might not remember that the first serious whispers of a looming takeover actually begun as far back as when Jan van der Winkel started his tenure as CEO. The chair of the CEO had barely cooled down from the heated departure of Lisa Drakeman when the first alarm bells were rung. Genmab was a true ugly duckling back then. The company was struggling to secure short-term survival due to a major liquidity crisis that surfaced in the wake of "Zaltumumab" failing in late stage clinical trials. The "ice-queen" Lisa Drakeman had over-optimistically invested an obscene sum of roughly 1 billion DKK in a turnkey factory that stood ready to produce Zaltumumab. This was unfortunately before the drug failed late stage clinical trials obliterating any chance of getting FDA's stamp of approval. This blatant management mistake did not only bring Genmab close to the brink of bankruptcy. The misery also sparked the arrival of the first serious takeover rumours. Several observers close to the company speculated that Glaxosmithkline would exploit the dire calamity of Genmab to buy the company.
This was, by the way, back in the days when I wrote an article that described Genmab as an ugly duckling and proposed that the company could potentially re-emerge as a beautiful swan one day when the new CEO (Jan van der Winkel) had gotten his kingdom securely under control. I still clearly remember how I urged investors to get aboard the train as it was about to leave and hurdle towards the land of fairytales with Jan van der Winkel as the driver setting the pace. Walking down memory lane, I kindly ask you to ignore the hideous Danish "Jantelov" as everyone that stepped aboard the train back then can now confidently exclaim: "...Oh boy, were we right..". We got nothing short of a real-life fairy tale and the best part is that we still miss to see the final and most exciting chapter unfold.
PUTTING ALL THE CHIPS ON THE TABLE
Enough shameless self-promotion. It suffices to conclude that I have benefitted from a healthy dose of luck in calling the investment case so far. I remain very bullish as I still firmly believe in my one-year-old +$10 billion topsales forecast for DARZALEX. A growing number has now joined me in this believe as an increasing array of compelling evidence mounts and continues to build the foundation of a future MEGA BLOCKBUSTER. This is of course happening, not at least, thanks to the strong dedication of Janssen who has been the best possible partner for Genmab until now.
My bullishness is basically so extreme that I have placed all my chips on the table in an all-in bet for a takeover happening before the end of this year. The stakes involved in writing this are thus outrageously high. I literally feel that I'm juggling between the odds of either being ridiculed or taking home the big prize as the strategist who ingeniously managed to uncover the truth and make an absolute killing in the process. The flipside of the coin doesn't scare me as the risk-reward perspective is very favourable. That is also the reason why you may rest assured that my chips stay on the table regardless of the high stakes involved in this all-in bullish move. Let's not worry too much about the flipside of the coin now. Let's instead worry about calling the bluff of the management who are clearly in the initial phase of covertly preparing Genmab for a sale and conditioning the shareholders for a coming bid. The prefered acquire would undoubtedly be Janssen. But, there are also others which could become likely first-movers, so a blue sky scenario could realistically include the prospects of an outright bidding war. It is premature to start talk about the bidders before we fully understand why an acquisition is in the cards for Genmab.
Granted, this might seem like very speculative reflections but, we have just bared witness to an astonishing event that clearly hints at M&A actions lurking right around the corner. The market has although largely chosen to ignore the clear hints received. This is an example of irrational behaviour and it is a symptom that clearly underlines how the market has become immune to takeover-talks. Years of persistent rumors and a continuous buzz from the takeover proponents has caused an investor fatigue that paralyzes the market as we are essentially very close to getting the ball rolling. You should ask yourself one very important question at this point of time. Who has the possibility to exploit and benefit from this situation? Try to let this question linger in the back of your mind before we will jointly return to it at the end of this article.
THE BOY THAT CRIED WOLF
Think of the fable about the "little boy who cried wolf". It is a tale about a shepherd boy who repeatedly fools nearby villagers into thinking that the wolf is coming to take his flock of sheep. The sheep then finally winds up being eaten by the wolf as none of the villagers believes the boy when he warns about a real wolf. Let me spell it out for you. Genmab is our sheep, the little boy embodies the M&A alarm bells, the villagers represents the market and our wolf is the acquiring party.
EXAMPLES OF STEPPING STONES ON THE PATH TOWARDS COLLECTIVE DENIAL
Let it be said immediately, I have participated in driving the sentiment of the market towards the same state of mind as the villagers in our fable. However, this was done in a good faith and with sincere motives. Other important market players have participated more disdainfully in a game of unblushingly promoting the takeover scenario. They are thus guilty on an equal footing with the shepherd boy from our fable. Remember how Michael Novod from Nordea included an alternative M&A target in an analysis published last year. Remember how Goldman Sachs amazingly decided to include a weighted part of their target from a seemingly arbitrarily established potential acquisition price of 1500 DKK. Remember how the Danish pension giant ATP -very strangely- suddenly started talking publicly about a strategy for mitigating the risk of a takeover. Think about Jeffries who recently issued a report which identified Genmab as a hot acquisition target. The list of examples goes on and on. We have generally witnessed so many small hints of an impending takeover that we have a giant chorus of shepherds singing about the advent of the wolf. The magnitude and scope of the clues available are thus so overwhelming that we need to narrow our focus. This is why all of our attention is soon turned to a earthshattering event that took place in Amsterdam recently. It is this event that will be used as our focal point in the quest to understand why Genmab won't survive 2016 as a separate legal entity.
Our key takeaway from the fable of the boy that cried wolf is so far that 99% of the market are in collective state of denial about the immense and rapid value creation that is ongoing at Genmab. The market is in a "villager" state of mind and this prevents the vast majority of shareholders from seeing the forest through the trees. Exactly this phenomenon is also what constitutes your chance to invest with an edge. You can currently buy Genmab shares with what corresponds to a free call option on a takeover premium. This window of opportunity ought to close as the stock market eventually wakes up and start to price in the increased likelihood of a takeover. You will therefore need to move fast if you want to exploit the prevailing market inefficiency. The stigmatized aurora has so far successfully extinguished every M&A fire that was lid. Someone will although manage to light a fire that persists and it very quickly gets scorchingly hot once this happen.
NO SMOKE WITHOUT A FIRE AND THE CEO THAT ALSO SUDDENLY STARTED CRYING WOLF
Our villagers are only seeing a very faint pouf of smoke before it quickly evaporates each time someone has been crying wolf. But, my dear fellow investors, please do remember that there is never smoke without a fire smoldering somewhere.
The smoldering fire became much more evident as the stakes in our fable were abruptly raised when the king himself entered the scene. Our CEO amazingly became part of the smoke puffing cast when he verbalized the existence of a wolf at a small investor meeting held in Amsterdam on the 09/03-2016. Jan van der Winkel was actually exhaling such thick smoke that one might wonder if he visited one of those famous "coffee shops" which Amsterdam is so notoriously known for. For the sake of clarity, our CEO was clearly not high on substances that are illegal in most jurisdictions outside of the Netherlands. But. he must have been high on naturally induced endorphins as he would otherwise not have been inclined to talk so freely as he did about takeovers and acquisition premiums. However, let's not focus too much upon what "floats the boat" of our CEO when visiting his home country. Let's instead focus on what he actually said as the words he used truly makes his speech a "landmark presentation" in communication terms.
It was the landmark presentation that secured our CEO a lead role in our fable. His choice of words during the presentation propelled him safely into a lead role among our big group of shepherds. Jan van der Winkel was not just crying wolf like the rest of the shepherds. No, he was actually screaming it from the top of his lungs. The loud noise that emanated from the meeting was so convincingly clear that it constitutes a solid proof of assumptions for those who are already firm believers of the takeover hypothesis. The problem is that many villagers continues to defy all logic and vigorously reject the likelihood of a takeover even after they have witnessed the king himself screaming wolf. This means that the smoke from the M&A fire which Jan van der Winkel tried to ignite didn't even reach the treetops and the market therefore completely missed the boat.
Mr Rob Gossens who is an acclaimed journalist from the most prominent dutch newspaper (De Telegraaf) was participating in the meeting where Jan van der Winkel held his landmark presentation. The CEO was not aware that a journalist was participating and his adverse reaction once he learned about this makes it fair to assume that he was indeed speaking more freely than usual. Rob Gossens had not been immunized by the prevailing aurora of stigmatization that stifles all Genmab related M&A buzz. So we are essentially very lucky that he was present to capture the full scope of the startling remarks that Jan van der Winkel was iterating during his presentation.
THE WOLF AS ARTICULATED BY JAN VAN DER WINKEL
Rob Gossens was so mesmerized by what he was hearing that he decided to focus heavily upon the M&A hints in an article that he wrote shortly after the meeting. It is only thanks to this article that we have know how Jan van der Winkel effectively jumped out of the closet and confirmed the likelihood of a takeover by Janssen.
The article was published in dutch and it thus failed to garner the international awareness that it deserved. It is difficult to replicate the exact messages of all the minuscule details without risking to alter the meaning a bit. This risk of slippage has been mitigated by seeking the advice of the journalist directly. Mr Rob Gossens has been consulted several times concerning the article and its quotes. This allowed Rob Gossens to repeatedly confirm that the content of the article represents an accurate, valid and honest account of what was said during the investor meeting. Kindly notice how the following direct citations from the article primarily focuses on republishing explicit quotes from Jan van der Winkel:
-----Start of citation from "Telegraaf"-----
Van Winkel ignites the fire by referring to the fact that January was the worst month ever for biotech. "This is a good moment to get onboard". He subsequently continues to appraise his company Genmab that has a fabulous drug with its cancer medicine Darzalex.
The market has acknowledged Genmab as ripe for takeover for two years now. Van der Winkel is not retracting the rumors. He, to the contrary, refers to the takeover of Pharmacyclics by Abbvie for 21B USD. Johnson and Johnson were outsmarted by this a year ago. Van de Winkel: "J&J won't let this happen again. They even have 35B "stored" overseas. A takeover is becoming more and more appealing to them"."Not that I want to let go of Genmab" he continues. But if it comes that far, then it will be a friendly takeover. However, I expect a premium of 100% on the current share price."
-----End of citation from "Telegraaf"-----
The above statements were so astonishing that they compelled your author to call the journalist immediately upon having read the original newspaper article. The conversation paved the way for an understanding of the explicit circumstances under which the quotes were obtained. It became clear how Jan van der Winkel was largely unprompted and acted independently when making the statements. The level of autonomy is significant as it truly underscores how strategically amazing the applied rhetoric is.
Let's now spend a couple of minutes investigating and discussing the quotes in a bit more detail. Jan van der Winkel starts his amazing journey into wolf territory by emphasizing that it is a historical attractive moment to buy biotech now that we are in the wake of the most ferocious biotech correction ever. This remark does, at face value, not seem particularly remarkable. But, it certainly becomes very remarkable once considering that it was used to set the scene for what followed. A CEO from a biotech firm should generally refrain from offering unprompted comments about the state of the biotech sector at gatherings that are held exclusively for biotech investors. It has very limited relevance as the risk remains the same across the entire sector. The risk is unrelated to the unique and specific long term equity story that the CEO should focus upon promoting instead.
Jan van der Winkel continues his talk and utters something about the existence of persistent acquisition rumors. If this isn't already controversial, well then it truly does become controversial once the next breath of air is used to state that the speculations can't be taken off the table. This is an absolutely shocking remark from a CEO that has previously remained very conservative and muted whenever being asked about M&A rumors!
There is no doubt that a similar statement from an american CEO would have resulted in an almost instantaneous reaction. A buying frenzy often takes place within minutes after such remarks disseminates to the US stock exchange. It must be said that an upswing on this basis would tend to exist only as a short-lived spike unless further M&A indications emerges. The question is not how big a reaction we should have seen. It is more a discussion of the fact that we should have seen some reaction. However, the stock price didn't even budge the slightest bit after the news of the landmark presentation hit the market.
Yet the most intriguing signal from Amsterdam is seen in the way that Jan van der Winkel decided to promote a sense of takeover-urgency. He cleverly underlines that Janssen has a burning platform due to historical events that really doesn't concern him or Genmab. He does so by describing how a fear of losing acquisition battles prevails after Janssen failed to acquire Pharmacyclics that was stolen by Abbvie right at the finishing line. It is very inappropriate for our CEO to talk about this at an investor conference. His remarks are very peculiar and it almost seems as if he has drawn inspiration from "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming". His way of articulating and conveying a sense of urgency certainly bares a striking resemblance to the way that the Pharmacyclics affaire was originally presented in "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming".
The astonishing revelations seems to come in an almost endless stream as Jan van der Winkel continues to deliver more firepower that arms the proponents of the acquisition scenario. He actually goes as far as to promote Janssen's bulky overseas cash reservoir as evidence for the existence of the means to make a takeover bid. To ensure that people fully grasps what is likely to ensue he also takes the time to underline that the attractiveness of a takeover keeps growing.
Jan van der Winkel then finally reaches his conclusion as he states a price tag with 100% premium as a reasonable entry level ticket for any considering to embark upon a takeover. This is essentially a standard high-range biotech acquisition premium and the most surprising about his conclusion therefore is that he names this as the expected price level for "friendly takeover".
Ladies and Gentlemen, or should I say shepherds, wake up and smell the coffee, it has actually been brewing for quite a while now! The wolf is indeed coming and our sheep has no intentions of running away anymore. Jan van der Winkel has essentially just planted a huge "FOR SALE" sign right in front of your nose and you should be buying Genmab shares like there was no tomorrow. The writing on the wall is crystal clear and the accompanying artwork that we can marvel at has now been signed by the CEO. Failure to realize this means that you must belong to the group of villagers from our fable.
A HALF-HEARTED ATTEMPT AT EXTINGUISHING THE FIRE
Jan van der Winkel gave a televised interview at the annual general assembly of the shareholders. It was during this interview that he was confronted with the article from the "De Telegraaf". Let it be clear that he simply had no other choice than to repudiate the content of the article. He was refuting the content of the article so vigorously that he actually winded up laughing as he dismissed the quotes as the wishes of the journalist. This essentially leaves us in a situation where we have the word of journalist Rob Gossens against the word of Jan van der Winkel.
Your author personally talked to Rob Gossens at several occasions over the last weeks and it must be said that he isn't exactly an expert on Genmab. Rob Gossens had no knowledge of a long background with M&A rumors when he was writing his article and he certainly did not stand to gain anything from falsely fabricating the impugned quotes he published. He did in fact not even recognize the controversy of the whole matter. Rob Gossen quite simply had no idea that he was opening a true Pandora's box. His lack of knowledge goes a long way in proving that he must be truthful in his quotes. The weighty argument for the reliability and validity is that Rob Gossens did not know anything about the failed pharmacyclics acquisition before Jan van der Winkel explained about this during his presentation.
Genmab has been extremely irresolute and vague in their actions following the newspaper article. "De Telegraaf" is the biggest dutch newspaper and Genmab should have demanded a immediate retraction. Rob Gossen confirms that neither he nor his newspaper has been contacted by Genmab with such a request. Genmab should also have reacted more sharply when the danish newspaper "Børsen" followed up on the story by publishing a short summary of the article in "De Telegraaf". Genmab instead winded up giving a few very unfortunate quotes that explained how it is "business as usual" for their CEO to answer questions about hostile takeovers. This is like comparing apples with oranges as Jan van der Winkel wasn't answering questions and certainly also wasn't talking about hostile takeovers.
Jan van der Winkel is a very enthusiastic and engaged CEO. He basically has a long track record that reveals repetitive problems with keeping his enthusiasm restrained once he gets too excited. The talk in Amsterdam took place in an intimate setting with roughly 25-30 investors and Jan van der Winkel did not know that a journalist was present in the crowd. We know this as Jan van der Winkel was very surprised when Rob Gossens presented himself and explained that he was a journalist. Needles to say that Jan van der Winkel did not wish to add any further colour to the picture he had so artfully painted from the stage only minutes ago.
FATTENING THE SHEEP
Villagers or not, some of you might surprisingly still doubt about the imminent arrival of the wolf. Such feelings of disbelief can basically only be rationalized if they are justified on the basis of lacking of evidence. The average villager will properly argue that a single presentation and the quick slip of a tongue plus the subjective interpretations of a journalist constitutes an insufficient basis for putting all their eggs in one basket. However, there is plenty of unrelated evidence that is mounting up. Remember how we started our journey by looking at a few examples that each points towards the likelihood of an acquisition. This article has although not focussed any further on all of this yet. Have no worries, this article only represents the first in a series of publications that will gradually venture much deeper into the topic of the looming takeover and uncover why the market capitalization of Genmab currently should be at least 50% higher than what the market realizes today.
A shortcut to a more justifiable share price is although to convince the villagers. It is by activating them that we will see Genmab trading higher like in a physical manifestation of how we get more flesh on our sheep. We quickly need some extra fat before the hungry and desperate pack of wolf moves in for the kill.
A QUICK TWIST OF OUR TALE AND A HINT AT WHAT FOLLOWS
A table of content for the sequel to "the boy that cried wolf" has already been devised. The exact release date regrettably remains shrouded in mystery. The timing of the release partially depends upon unfolding and emergent market events. But, it unfortunately also depends very much upon making time in the agenda of your author to write it.
So why should you look forward to the sequel? You probably think you got it all worked out as you are sitting there with a clear image of the roles and the cast in our fable. You think that you know who the sheep is and you certainly think that you know who the wolf is. Well, the sequel to this article will offer you a quick twist on this. You will have to come to terms with the fact that things unfortunately aren't as simple as portrayed so far.
You might vaguely remember that we left one question unanswered earlier on. You had to think about it and let it linger meanwhile reading on. It was at the end of the section called "putting on all chips on the table" that the unanswered question was posed. The question is very crucial in the game of Genmab. It also represents the foundation of a twist to our tale which only the likes of Dan Brown or Stephen King would include in their writing to thicken the plot.
You have surely heard the expression "smart money" and you therefore most likely know that it is generally defined as a term for money that is invested by "those-in-the-know". Think of our shepherds again. The lineup of shepherds consist of very large multinational investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Those are in fact the very same banks whose behaviour was the subject of attention in the previous publication "Wake up Denmark - the big bad wolf is coming". It is these banks and some of the other shepherds that represents the smart money in this context. They know exactly what they are doing and they are very much benefitting from keeping all of the villagers in the dark.
Recent events have profoundly underscored the motives of smart money. One could actually use this to justify an entire shift of who's who in the cast of our fable. Are you confused? Well, it is actually simple, we are just looking at a classical example of something that bares an eerie resemblance to the wolf being dressed in sheep's clothes and that will be the focus point of the sequel.
DISCLOSURE: The author holds Genmab shares and has significant personal financial interests in the company.The author isn't directly recommending anyone to buy or sell solely on the basis of the content in this publication. The author can't be held reliable for any gains or losses associated with decisions made on the basis of this publication or parts of it. The views expressed by the author are mainly subjective personal opinions and the content is based on both factual information and speculations.
****** GENMAB - Fortællingen om den lille dreng, Der råbte ulven kommer ******
Denne artikel søger at forklare, hvorfor Genmab vil sandsynligvis blive offer for en overtagelse før 2016 kommer til en ende. Det dækker dermed et emne, der er blevet gådefulde i bedste og yderst kontroversiel eller endda latterlige i værste fald. Den tilsyneladende tvetydighed af M & A emne er imidlertid ikke ubehageligt nok til at afskrække din forfatter at offentliggøre yderligere drøftelser om de oprindeligt er beskrevet i artiklen ideer "Wake Up Danmark - Den store stygge ulv kommer". Enhver, der gik glip af denne artikel, og nu føler en trang til at læse den kan besøge: http://inrater.com/topic/wake-up-denmark-the-big-bad- ..
En ANSVARSFRASKRIVELSE - undertegnede er fuldt lastet med Genmab aktier
Lad mig præsentere mig selv, før vi fortsætter. Jeg er en simpel privat investor med en temmelig stor beholdning af Genmab aktier. Jeg har en stærk og alsidig uddannelsesmæssig baggrund som omfatter både graduate grader og postgraduate forskning i finansiering, international business, marketing og organisationsteori. Det er min ubarmhjertige dedikation til tværfagligt og livslang læring, der gør det muligt for mig at sammenstykke puslespil og nogle gange få en lille investering kant. Jeg bruger en simpel form for "strategisk sans-making", der har tilladt mig at klare sig bedre end markedet. Min tilgang lyder måske smart, men jeg er i bund og anerkender mine begrænsede evner. Jeg tydeligvis ikke kvalificeret til at gøre komplicerede finansielle og kvantitativ analyse bedre end den høje betalte analytikere og quants på førende finansielle institutioner. Biotech investeringer kræver yderligere stor indsats afsat til at forstå komplicerede aspekt af klinisk forskning, og jeg er ikke en biokemiker. Så jeg også stole på ekspertudtalelser til at levere den slags tekniske indsigt. Jeg er med andre ord dårligt kvalificerede til at diskutere små detaljer, men jeg gøre det bedre, når det kommer til at forbinde prikker og se det store billede.
Reaking FRI fra rat race og se verden med større klarhed
Den bestseller forfatter Nassim Taleb har formuleret min tilgang til at investere bedre end jeg nogensinde kunne gøre det selv. Nassim Taleb opfordrer sine læsere til at slå deres tv, når du ser Bloomberg eller CNBC. Han foreslår, at dette vil give dig mulighed for at se gennem de tomme ord og observere folk på skærmen mere dybt. Du vil derefter indse, hvor de fleste af de såkaldte eksperter er clueless om de kortsigtede bevægelser på markedet, at de er så travlt forklare og begrunde. Nassim Taleb anbefaler endvidere, at man afstår fra at se nyhederne eller endda læse dagblade med for meget fokus på aktuelle begivenheder. Han levende og overbevisende forklarer, hvordan mennesker, og især "eksperter" bliver fanget i en rotter race af meningsløse behandling meningsløse detaljer. Sight af det store billede er tabt, og de megatrends, der bestemmer de overordnede markedsbevægelser er savnet. Han konkluderer, at de fleste aviser og kilder til daglige nyheder blot giver støj, der skyer dit sind og skjuler din evne til at se det store billede.
Tag nogen egenkapital rapport om Genmab og overveje, hvor meget tid og energi gik ind i finansielle modellering af et enkelt punkt i den avancerede SOTP (sum-of-the-dele) analyse, der danner grundlag for DCF (discounted cash flow) beregning. Så overvej hvor få argumenter du finde på at retfærdiggøre, at den relevante WACC (WACC) er valgt. Selv en mindre ændring i WACC har en enorm indflydelse på NPV (nutidsværdi). Lad os høre et konkret eksempel ved at se på den fremragende egenkapital rapport af Danske Bank. Bare en lille smule af den finansielle lappeløsninger viser os, at den geniale aktieanalytiker Thomas Bowers vil være i stand til at øge sin målsætning om Genmab med omkring 25%, hvis han blot formindsker sin WACC fra 9% til 8%, samtidig med at alle andre skøn konstant. Lidt mere lappeløsninger vil endda vise, hvordan indikativprisen vil bevæge sig eksponentielt højere, hvis vi mindske WACC yderligere.
ANVENDELSE AF større klarhed til glimt den sande værdi af GENMAB
Aktieanalytikere har så travlt deltage fancy konferencer som ASH og ASCO mellemtiden også bruge megen tid går til forskellige investorpræsentationer og roadshows. De tilbringer dage eller endda uger knuse tal og bygge detaljerede prognoser. Men den nøjagtighed og dermed vigtigheden af dette arbejde bliver næsten meningsløs, når du begynder at tænke over, hvordan bittesmå ændringer i vilkårlige antagelser tider ændrer alt radikalt. Så hvad betyder det? Skulle du ikke lytte til, hvad de aktieanalytikere siger? Nå, er markedet lytter, og dette ofte tendens til at gøre aktiekurserne bevæge sig mod konsensus som forventet af analytikerne. Så effekten af selvopfyldende
Vi er meget heldige, når det kommer til Genmab. Vi har nemlig visse uafhængige markedsdeltagere observatører, der besidder ekstraordinære indsigt til egenkapitalen historien om Genmab. Det slående er, at de har travlt pitching nøjagtig samme historie som præsenteres her. Tænk for eksempel på Genmabs medstifter Florian Schönharting. Han har hele tiden forklaret os, at aktieanalytikere er bange for at træde ud af deres comfort zone og offentliggøre rapporter, som omfatter det sande omfang af strategisk værdi. Florian Schönharting har siden ASH 2015 gentagne gange erklæret, at dagsværdien af Genmab bør tillade os at se egenkapital rapporter med mål svævende ved eller over 2000 kroner per aktie. Perspektivet at Florian Schönharting tilbyder er en, der ikke er begrænset af den sædvanlige slaveri excel-ark baserede prognoser. Men så igen, han er også ingen mindre end "grand old man" i dansk biotek og en af grundlæggerne af vores elskede investeringsobjekt.
Andre observatører med en lignende grad af uafhængighed fra det etablerede netværk af, hvad der udgør "den finansielle industri" har også gjort meget bullish opkald. Blandt disse er den berømte danske biotek ekspert Peter Aabo, der var den seneste til at flytte ind i "super tyr" område ved at sætte et mål på op til 1600 kroner om Genmab aktien.
De faktorer, der kan låse op den sande værdi af GENMAB
Så hvilke yderligere forklarer den enorme modsætning mellem de "etablerede" aktieanalytikere og de uafhængige super tyre? De etablerede analytikere er simpelthen bange for at flytte til langt væk fra konsensus i markedet, og de er derfor langsomt justere parametrene for deres forskning til praktisk og roligt sætte pris på deres mål uden risiko for at overgår markedet og skabe en for stor værdi hul. De er med andre ord i overensstemmelse med den gennemsnitlige som stikker ud deres hals kan være dyrt.
Ægte spil skiftende øjeblikke opstår kun, når en person med den nødvendige indflydelse, de nødvendige finansielle muskler og stærk vilje beslutter at handle baseret på den sande strategisk værdi. Det er væsentligt, hvad der sker, når præmierne erhvervelse flytte op til 100% eller endnu mere i sjældne tilfælde. Skidt konsensus, der herskede og hæmmede realiseringen af en komplet vurdering ses bort som vrøvl af det overtagende part, der hovedsagelig betaler for ægte strategisk værdi og derved lukker værdien hul.
Kan du se skriften på væggen? Vi har flere større spillere fra den farmaceutiske industri med tilstrækkeligt dyb indsigt til fuldt ud at forstå de massive strategiske værdi, som Genmab giver dem. Disse selskaber vil allerede være kendt til nogle af læserne. Men, hvem de er -besides leder af ulveflokken (Janssen Pharmaceuticals NV) - er virkelig ikke et centralt fokus i denne artikel.
Frigøre WOLF
Åbningen erklæring lovede kontroverser, så lad os skynde os og levere på denne lokkende løfte højre væk. Genmab er i øjeblikket til salg! Ethvert forsøg på ledelsen til at afvise dette blot en klassisk virksomhedskultur paradeforestilling, der spilles for at sikre aktionærernes interesse.
Formulere elefanten i rummet så klart kan afholde nogle fra at fortsætte med at læse. Hvis du er en af dem, der tænker på ophørende nu, så du er ordentligt forudse, at følgende vil være alt for farverige og spekulativt til din smag. Nogle vil endda sige, at det er forståeligt, da emnet for en forestående overtagelse er blevet temmelig kontroversiel som også anført i starten af denne artikel. Men usikkerheden i en potentiel overtagelse opstår primært, da investorerne er fodret op med den konstante udbasunerer af overtagelsestilbud rygter. Denne træthed er trist som det dybest set repræsenterer en fejlslutning. Du kan simpelthen ikke bruge det skete ikke i går at godtgøre, at det ikke kommer til at ske i morgen. Denne artikel søger at peer dybere ind sandsynligheden for en fremtidig overtagelse og tilbyde nye uhøjtidelige argumenter i processen. Ambitionen går så langt som til at overbevise nogle af de mest nøgterne overtagelse modstandere.
DE FØRSTE OVERTAGELSE Rygter og en tur down memory lane
Vi har alle hørt det flere gange. Den snak om en potentiel overtagelse har været alle de vrede i lang tid nu. Men kan du ikke huske, at de første seriøse hvisker af en truende overtagelse faktisk begyndt så langt tilbage som da Jan van der Winkel startede hans tid som administrerende direktør. Formanden for den administrerende direktør havde knapt nedkøles fra den opvarmede afgang Lisa Drakeman da de første alarmklokker blev ringet. Genmab var en sand grim ælling dengang. Virksomheden blev kæmper for at sikre overlevelse på kort sigt på grund af en større likviditetskrise, dukkede op i kølvandet på "Zaltumumab" ikke i sen klinisk forsøg. Den "is-dronning" Lisa Drakeman havde over-optimistisk investeret en obskøn sum af omkring 1 milliard kroner i en nøglefærdig fabrik, der stod klar til at producere Zaltumumab. Dette var desværre før stoffet mislykkedes sen-fase klinisk forsøg udslette enhver chance for at få FDA stempel af godkendelse. Denne åbenlyse management fejl ikke kun bringe Genmab tæt på randen af konkurs. Den elendighed udløste også ankomsten af de første seriøse overtagelse rygter. Flere iagttagere tæt på virksomheden spekuleret på, at Glaxosmithkline ville udnytte den dystre katastrofe af Genmab til at købe selskabet.
Dette var i øvrigt, tilbage i de dage, hvor jeg skrev en artikel, der beskrev Genmab som en grim ælling, og foreslog, at selskabet kunne potentielt dukke op igen som en smuk svane en dag, da den nye administrerende direktør (Jan van der Winkel) havde fået sit rige sikkert under kontrol. Jeg husker tydeligt stadig, hvordan jeg opfordrede investorerne til at komme ombord på toget, da det var ved at forlade og hurdle mod land eventyr med Jan van der Winkel som føreren sætter tempoet. Walking ned hukommelse lane, jeg beder dig om at ignorere den hæslige danske "Janteloven" som alle, der trådte ombord på toget tilbage da kan nu trygt udbryde: "... Oh boy, var vi ret ..". Vi fik intet mindre end en virkelige liv eventyr og den bedste del er, at vi stadig savner at se det endelige og mest spændende kapitel udfolde sig.
ORD alle chips på bordet
Nok skamløse selvpromovering. Det er tilstrækkeligt til at konkludere, at jeg har nydt godt af en sund dosis af lykke i at kalde investeringscasen hidtil. Jeg er fortsat meget bullish, som jeg stadig overbevist i min ét år gamle + $ 10 milliarder topsales prognose for DARZALEX. Et stigende antal har nu sluttet mig i denne tro som en stigende række af overbevisende dokumentation mounts og fortsætter med at bygge fundamentet for en fremtidig MEGA BLOCKBUSTER. Dette er naturligvis sker, ikke mindst takket være den stærke engagement Janssen, der har været den bedst mulige partner for Genmab indtil nu.
Min bullishness er dybest set så ekstrem, at jeg har lagt alle mine jetoner på bordet i en all-in bet for en overtagelse sker inden udgangen af dette år. De involverede skriftligt denne indsatserne er derfor uhyrligt høje. Jeg bogstaveligt talt føler, at jeg jonglerer mellem odds for enten at blive latterliggjort eller tager hjem den store gevinst som strateg, der sindrigt lykkedes at afdække sandheden og gøre en absolut drab i processen. Bagsiden af medaljen ikke skræmme mig som risiko og belønning perspektiv er meget gunstige. Det er også grunden til, at du kan være sikker på at mine chips forblive på bordet, uanset de høje stakes er involveret i denne all-in bullish træk. Lad os ikke bekymre dig for meget om den bagside af medaljen nu. Lad os i stedet bekymre sig om opkald til bluff af forvaltningen, der er helt klart i den indledende fase af det skjulte forbereder Genmab for et salg og konditionering aktionærerne for en kommende bud. Den foretrukket erhverve ville utvivlsomt være Janssen. Men der er også andre, som kan blive sandsynligvis første-movers, så en blå himmel scenario realistisk kunne omfatte mulighederne for en decideret budkrig. Det er for tidligt at begynde at tale om de bydende, før vi fuldt ud forstår, hvorfor en anskaffelse i kortene for Genmab.
Indrømmet, kan dette virke som meget spekulative overvejelser, men vi har netop blottede vidne til en forbløffende begivenhed, der klart antyder M & A aktiviteter lurer lige rundt om hjørnet. Markedet har dog i høj grad valgt at ignorere de klare hints modtaget. Dette er et eksempel på irrationel adfærd, og det er et symptom, der klart understreger, hvordan markedet er blevet immune over for overtagelse-samtaler. Års vedholdende rygter og en kontinuerlig brummer fra overtagelse fortalerne har forårsaget en investor træthed, som lammer markedet som vi er i det væsentlige meget tæt på at få bolden op. Du bør spørge dig selv et meget vigtigt spørgsmål på dette tidspunkt. Hvem har mulighed for at udnytte og drage fordel af denne situation? Prøv at lade dette spørgsmål blive hængende på bagsiden af dit sind, før vi i fællesskab vil vende tilbage til det i slutningen af denne artikel.
DRENGEN DER råbte WOLF
Tænk på fabel om den "lille dreng, der råbte ulv". Det er en fortælling om en hyrdedreng, der gentagne gange tåber nærliggende landsbyboere til at tro, at ulven er kommer til at tage sin fåreflok. Fårene så endelig ender blive spist af ulven, da ingen af landsbyboerne mener drengen, da han advarer om en rigtig ulv. Lad mig stave det for dig. Genmab er vores får, den lille dreng er indbegrebet af M & A alarmklokker, landsbyboerne repræsenterer markedet og vores ulv er den overtagende part.
EKSEMPLER PÅ trædesten på vejen mod KOLLEKTIV benægtelse
Lad det være sagt med det samme, har jeg deltaget i kørsel stemningen på markedet i retning af samme sindstilstand som landsbyboerne i vores fabel. Imidlertid blev dette gjort i en god tro og med oprigtige motiver. Andre vigtige markedsaktører har deltaget mere foragteligt i et spil skamløst fremme overtagelsen scenario. De er således skyldig på lige fod med hyrde dreng fra vores fabel. Husk, hvordan Michael Novod fra Nordea omfattede en alternativ M & A mål i en analyse offentliggjort sidste år. Husk, hvordan Goldman Sachs forbavsende besluttet at inkludere en vægtet del af deres mål fra en tilsyneladende vilkårligt etableret potentiel anskaffelsessum på 1500 kroner. Husk, hvordan den danske pension gigant ATP-meget strangely- pludselig begyndte at tale offentligt om en strategi for at mindske risikoen for en overtagelse. Tænk Jeffries, der for nylig udstedte en rapport, som identificerede Genmab som en varm opkøbsmål. Listen med eksempler bliver ved og ved. Vi har generelt oplevet så mange små antydninger af en forestående overtagelse, at vi har et kæmpe kor af hyrder synger om fremkomsten af ulven. Størrelsen og omfanget af de spor til rådighed, er derfor så overvældende, at vi er nødt til at indsnævre vores fokus. Derfor er alle vores opmærksomhed er snart forvandlet til en earthshattering begivenhed, der fandt sted i Amsterdam for nylig. Det er denne begivenhed, der vil blive brugt som vores omdrejningspunkt i bestræbelserne på at forstå, hvorfor Genmab ikke vil overleve 2016 som en selvstændig juridisk enhed.
Vores nøgle takeaway fra fabel af drengen, der råbte ulv er så langt, at 99% af markedet er i kollektiv tilstand af benægtelse om den enorme og hurtige værdiskabelse, der er i gang på Genmab. Markedet er i en "landsbybeboer" sindstilstand, og dette forhindrer det store flertal af aktionærerne fra at se skoven for bare træer. Præcis dette fænomen er også, hvad der udgør din chance for at investere med en kant. Du kan i øjeblikket købe Genmab aktier med hvad der svarer til en gratis call option på en overtagelse præmie. Denne mulighedernes vindue burde lukke som aktiemarkedet til sidst vågner op og begynder at prisen på den øgede sandsynlighed for en overtagelse. Du bliver derfor nødt til at handle hurtigt, hvis du ønsker at udnytte ineffektivitet den fremherskende markedet. Den stigmatiseret aurora har hidtil med held slukket hver M & A brand, der var låg. Nogen vil selv formår at tænde bål, der varer ved, og det meget hurtigt bliver scorchingly varmt, når dette sker.
Ingen røg UDEN BRAND OG CEO, der også PLUDSELIG begyndte at græde WOLF
Vores landsbyboere kun se en meget svag puf af røg, før det hurtigt fordamper, hver gang nogen har grædt ulv. Men, mine kære kolleger investorer, skal du huske, at der er aldrig røg uden en brand ulmer et sted.
Den ulmende ild blev meget mere tydelig, da indsatsen i vores fabel brat blevet rejst da kongen selv ind på scenen. Vores CEO forbavsende blev en del af røg puster cast, da han verbaliseret eksistensen af en ulv på en lille møde investor afholdt i Amsterdam den 09 / 03-2016. Jan van der Winkel faktisk udånding sådan tyk røg, at man kunne undre sig, hvis han besøgte en af de berømte "coffee shops", som Amsterdam er så notorisk kendt for. For overskuelighedens skyld, vores CEO var tydeligvis ikke højt på stoffer, som er ulovligt i de fleste jurisdiktioner uden for Holland. Men. han må have været højt på naturligt inducerede endorfiner, som han ellers ikke ville have været tilbøjelig til at tale så frit som han gjorde om overtagelser og præmier erhvervelse. Men lad os ikke fokusere for meget på, hvad "flyder båden" af vores CEO, når man besøger sit hjemland. Lad os i stedet fokusere på, hvad han faktisk sagde, da de ord, han brugte virkelig gør sin tale en "milepæl præsentation" i kommunikations form.
Det var den skelsættende præsentation, der sikrede vores CEO en ledende rolle i vores fabel. Hans valg af ord i løbet af præsentationen fremdrives ham sikkert ind i en ledende rolle blandt vores store gruppe af hyrder. Jan van der Winkel var ikke bare græd ulven ligesom resten af hyrderne. Nej, han var faktisk skrigende det fra toppen af hans lunger. Den kraftig støj, der udgik fra mødet var så overbevisende klart, at det udgør et solidt bevis på forudsætninger for dem, der allerede fast troende i overtagelsen hypotese. Problemet er, at mange landsbyboere fortsætter med at trodse al logik og energisk afviser sandsynligheden for en overtagelse, selv efter at de har været vidne til Kongen selv skrigende ulv. Det betyder, at røgen fra M & A brand, som Jan van der Winkel forsøgte at antænde ikke engang nå trætoppene og markedet derfor helt gået glip af båden.
Hr Rob Gossens som er en anerkendt journalist fra den mest fremtrædende hollandske avis (De Telegraaf) deltog i mødet, hvor Jan van der Winkel holdt sin skelsættende præsentation. Den administrerende direktør var ikke klar over, at en journalist deltog og hans bivirkning når han lært om dette gør det rimeligt at antage, at han faktisk talte mere frit end normalt. Rob Gossens ikke var blevet immuniseret ved den fremherskende aurora af stigmatisering, der kvæler alle Genmab relaterede M & A brummer. Så vi er i det væsentlige meget heldig, at han var til stede for at indfange det fulde omfang af de overraskende bemærkninger, Jan van der Winkel var iteration under sin præsentation.
THE WOLF AS formuleret af JAN VAN DER WINKEL
Rob Gossens var så hypnotiseret af hvad han hørte, at han besluttede at fokusere kraftigt på M & A vink i en artikel, at han skrev kort efter mødet. Det er kun takket være denne artikel, som vi har ved, hvordan Jan van der Winkel effektivt sprang ud af skabet og bekræftede sandsynligheden for en overtagelse af Janssen.
Artiklen blev publiceret i hollandsk og det dermed ikke samle den internationale bevidsthed om, at det fortjente. Det er vanskeligt at kopiere de nøjagtige meddelelser af alle de meget små detaljer uden at risikere at ændre betydningen en smule. Denne risiko for skred er blevet afbødet ved at søge rådgivning hos journalisten direkte. Hr Rob Gossens er blevet hørt flere gange om artiklen og dens tilbud. Dette gav Rob Gossens til gentagne gange bekræfte, at indholdet af artiklen repræsenterer en præcis, gyldig og ærlig redegørelse for, hvad der blev sagt under investor møde. Kindly mærke til, hvordan følgende direkte citater fra artiklen fokuserer primært på genudgiver eksplicitte citater fra Jan van der Winkel:
----- Start på citat fra "Telegraaf" -----
Van Winkel antænder bålet ved at henvise til det faktum, at januar var den værste måned nogensinde for biotek. "Dette er et godt tidspunkt at få ombord". Han efterfølgende fortsætter med at vurdere hans selskab Genmab, der har en fabelagtig lægemiddel med sin kræft medicin Darzalex.
Markedet har anerkendt Genmab som moden til overtagelse i to år nu. Van der Winkel ikke trækkes tilbage rygterne. Han, om det modsatte, henviser til overtagelse af Pharmacyclics af Abbvie for 21B USD. Johnson og Johnson blev outsmarted af dette for et år siden. Van de Winkel: "J & J vil ikke lade dette ske igen De har selv 35B." Gemt "Ikke at jeg ønsker at give slip på Genmab" fortsætter han, "oversøiske En overtagelse bliver mere og mere tiltrækkende for dem.".. Men hvis det kommer så langt, så vil det være en venlig overtagelse. Men jeg forventer, en præmie på 100% i forhold til nuværende aktiekurs. "
----- Slut på citat fra "Telegraaf" -----
Ovenstående udsagn var så forbløffende, at de tvang din forfatter at kalde journalisten umiddelbart efter at have læst den oprindelige avisartikel. Samtalen banede vejen for en forståelse af de eksplicitte omstændigheder, hvorunder de citater blev opnået. Det blev klart, hvordan Jan van der Winkel var stort set uopfordret og handlede uafhængigt, når de foretager de erklæringer. Niveauet af autonomi er betydelig, da det virkelig understreger, hvordan strategisk fantastisk den anvendte retorik er.
Lad os nu bruge et par minutter at undersøge og diskutere citater i lidt flere detaljer. Jan van der Winkel starter sin fantastiske rejse ind ulv område ved at understrege, at det er et historisk attraktivt tidspunkt at købe biotek nu hvor vi er i kølvandet på den mest grusomme biotek korrektion nogensinde. Denne bemærkning gør, for pålydende, synes ikke særlig bemærkelsesværdig. Men det helt sikkert bliver meget bemærkelsesværdig engang betragtning af at det blev brugt til at sætte scenen for, hvad fulgte. En direktør fra et bioteknologisk firma skal generelt afholde sig fra at tilbyde uopfordret kommentarer om tilstanden af biotek-sektoren ved sammenkomster, der udelukkende er bestemt for biotek investorer. Det har meget begrænset relevans, da risikoen er den samme på tværs af hele sektoren. Risikoen er relateret til den unikke og specifikke langsigtede equity story, at den administrerende direktør bør fokusere på at fremme i stedet.
Jan van der Winkel fortsætter sin tale og udstøder noget om eksistensen af vedholdende opkøbsrygter. Hvis dette ikke allerede er kontroversielt, ja så er det virkelig ikke bliver kontroversiel, når den næste pust bruges til at fastslå, at spekulationer ikke kan tages af bordet. Dette er en absolut chokerende bemærkning fra en CEO, der tidligere holdt meget konservativ og dæmpet, når bliver spurgt om M & A rygter!
Der er ingen tvivl om, at en lignende erklæring fra en amerikansk CEO ville have resulteret i en næsten øjeblikkelig reaktion. En køber vanvid foregår ofte inden for få minutter efter sådanne bemærkninger formidles til USA børsen. Det skal siges, at et opsving på dette grundlag ville have tendens til at eksistere kun som en kortvarig spike medmindre yderligere M & A indikationer opstår. Spørgsmålet er ikke, hvor stor en reaktion, vi skulle have set. Det er mere en diskussion af det faktum, at vi skulle have set nogle reaktion. Men aktiekursen ikke engang rokke den mindste smule efter nyheden om den skelsættende præsentationen ramt markedet.
Men mest spændende signal fra Amsterdam ses på den måde, Jan van der Winkel besluttet at fremme en følelse af overtagelsen-haster. Han dygtigt understreger, at Janssen har en brændende platform grundet historiske begivenheder, der virkelig ikke vedrører ham eller Genmab. Han gør det ved at beskrive, hvordan en frygt for at miste erhvervelse kampe hersker efter Janssen undladt at erhverve Pharmacyclics der blev stjålet af Abbvie lige ved målstregen. Det er meget uhensigtsmæssigt for vores CEO at tale om dette på et investormøde konference. Hans bemærkninger er meget ejendommelig og det synes næsten, som om han har hentet inspiration fra "Vågn op Danmark - den store stygge ulv kommer". Hans måde at formulere og formidle en følelse af uopsættelighed blotter sikkert en slående lighed med den måde, at Pharmacyclics affaire oprindeligt blev præsenteret i "Vågn op Danmark - den store stygge ulv kommer".
Den forbløffende afsløringer synes at komme i en næsten endeløs strøm som Jan van der Winkel fortsætter med at levere mere ildkraft, at våben fortalerne for købet scenario. Han faktisk går så langt som til at fremme Janssen s pladskrævende oversøisk kontanter reservoir som bevis for eksistensen af midlerne til at fremsætte overtagelsestilbud. For at sikre, at folk fuldt griber hvad der sandsynligvis vil opstå han også tager sig tid til at understrege, at interessen for en overtagelse fortsætter med at vokse.
Jan van der Winkel så endelig når sin konklusion, som han siger et prisskilt med 100% præmie som en rimelig entry level billet til enhver overvejer at indlede en overtagelse. Det er primært en standard high-range biotek erhvervelse præmie og mest overraskende om hans konklusion er derfor, at han navne dette som det forventede prisniveau for "friendly overtagelse".
Mine damer og herrer, eller skulle jeg sige hyrder, vågne op og lugte kaffen, det har faktisk været under opsejling i lang tid nu! Ulven er faktisk kommer og vores får har ingen intentioner om at løbe væk længere. Jan van der Winkel har væsentlige netop plantet en kæmpe "TIL SALG" skilt lige foran din næse, og du skal købe Genmab aktier ligesom der ikke var nogen i morgen. Skriften på væggen er krystalklart og den ledsagende illustrationer, vi kan beundre er nu blevet underskrevet af den administrerende direktør. Manglende indse dette betyder, at du skal tilhøre den gruppe af landsbyboere fra vores fabel.
En halvhjertet forsøg AT slukke branden
Jan van der Winkel gav en tv-transmitteret interview på den årlige generalforsamling for aktionærerne. Det var under dette interview, at han blev konfronteret med artiklen fra "De Telegraaf". Lad det være klart, at han simpelthen havde intet andet valg end at afvise artiklens indhold. Han var gendrive indholdet af artiklen så kraftigt, at han faktisk forpustet op griner som han afskediget de citater som ønsker journalisten. Dette væsentlige efterlader os i en situation, hvor vi har ord journalisten Rob Gossens mod ord Jan van der Winkel.
Din forfatter personligt talt med Rob Gossens ved flere lejligheder i de sidste uger, og det må siges, at han ikke er præcis en ekspert på Genmab. Rob Gossens havde ikke kendskab til en lang baggrund med M & A rygter, da han skrev sin artikel, og han bestemt ikke står til at vinde noget fra falsk opdigte de omtvistede citater han udgivet. Han faktisk ikke engang genkende kontroversen af hele sagen. Rob Gossen simpelthen ikke havde nogen idé om, at han var åbne en ægte Pandoras æske. Hans mangel på viden går langt i at bevise, at han skal være sandfærdig i sine citater. Den tungtvejende argument for pålidelighed og gyldighed er, at Rob Gossens ikke vidste noget om den mislykkede erhvervelse Pharmacyclics før Jan van der Winkel forklarede om dette under sin præsentation.
Genmab har været yderst ubeslutsom og vage i deres handlinger efter avisartikel. "De Telegraaf" er den største hollandske avis og Genmab burde have krævet en øjeblikkelig tilbagetrækning. Rob Gossen bekræfter, at hverken han eller hans avis er blevet kontaktet af Genmab med en sådan anmodning. Genmab skal også have reageret mere skarpt, når danske avis "Børsen" fulgte op på historien ved at offentliggøre et kort resumé af artiklen i "De Telegraaf". Genmab i stedet vikles med at give et par meget uheldige citater, forklarede, hvordan det er "business as usual" for deres CEO at besvare spørgsmål om fjendtlige overtagelser. Dette er som at sammenligne æbler med appelsiner som Jan van der Winkel var ikke besvare spørgsmål og bestemt også talte ikke om fjendtlige overtagelser.
Jan van der Winkel er en meget entusiastisk og engageret administrerende direktør. Han har dybest set en lang track record, der afslører gentagne problemer med at holde sin begejstring tilbageholdende, når han bliver for ophidset. Foredraget i Amsterdam fandt sted i intime omgivelser med ca. 25-30 investorer og Jan van der Winkel vidste ikke, at en journalist var til stede i mængden. Vi kender dette som Jan van der Winkel var meget overrasket, da Rob Gossens præsenterede sig selv og forklarede, at han var en journalist. Nåle til at sige, at Jan van der Winkel ikke ønsker at tilføje yderligere farve til billedet, han havde så kunstfærdigt malet fra scenen kun få minutter siden.
Opfedning fårene
Landsbyboere eller ej, nogle af jer måske overraskende stadig tvivl om den forestående ankomst af ulven. Sådanne følelser af vantro kan grundlæggende kun rationaliseres, hvis de er berettiget på grundlag af manglende beviser. Den gennemsnitlige landsbybeboer vil korrekt argumentere for, at en enkelt præsentation og hurtig slip af en tunge plus subjektive fortolkninger af en journalist er et utilstrækkeligt grundlag for at lægge alle deres æg i en kurv. Men der er masser af uafhængige beviser for, at der er stigende op. Husk, hvordan vi startede vores rejse ved at se på et par eksempler, som hver især peger mod sandsynligheden for en overtagelse. Denne artikel har dog endnu ikke fokuseret yderligere på alt dette. Har ingen bekymringer, denne artikel kun er det første i en serie af publikationer, der gradvist vil vove langt dybere ind i emnet for den truende overtagelse og afdække, hvorfor markedsværdien af Genmab i øjeblikket bør være mindst 50% højere end hvad markedet indser i dag .
En genvej til en mere berettiget aktiekursen er skønt at overbevise landsbyboere. Det er ved at aktivere dem, at vi vil se Genmab handel højere som i en fysisk manifestation af, hvordan vi får mere kød på vores får. Vi har hurtigt brug for nogle ekstra fedt før de sultne og desperate pakke ulv bevæger sig i for at dræbe.
En HURTIG TWIST AF VORES TALE og en antydning HVOR FØLGENDE
En indholdsfortegnelse for efterfølgeren til "drengen der råbte ulv" er allerede blevet udtænkt. dato Den nøjagtige release desværre stadig indhyllet i mystik. Timingen af frigivelsen delvist afhænger udfoldning og emergent begivenheder på markedet. Men, det desværre også afhænger meget ved at gøre tid på dagsordenen for din forfatter til at skrive det.
Så hvorfor skulle du se frem til efterfølgeren?
Google Oversæt til virksomheder:OversætterkitWebsiteoversætterFind nye markeder
Jeg har tilladt mig at Google-oversætte Davids indlæg. Det er jo ikke alle der er lige skrappe til engelsk. Vi må så finde os i at regne alle de spøjse "fejloversættelser" ud.
Denne artikel søger at forklare, hvorfor Genmab vil sandsynligvis blive offer for en overtagelse før 2016 kommer til en ende. Det dækker dermed et emne, der er blevet gådefulde i bedste og yderst kontroversiel eller endda latterlige i værste fald. Den tilsyneladende tvetydighed af M & A emne er imidlertid ikke ubehageligt nok til at afskrække din forfatter at offentliggøre yderligere drøftelser om de oprindeligt er beskrevet i artiklen ideer "Wake Up Danmark - Den store stygge ulv kommer". Enhver, der gik glip af denne artikel, og nu føler en trang til at læse den kan besøge: http://inrater.com/topic/wake-up-denmark-the-big-bad- ..
En ANSVARSFRASKRIVELSE - undertegnede er fuldt lastet med Genmab aktier
Lad mig præsentere mig selv, før vi fortsætter. Jeg er en simpel privat investor med en temmelig stor beholdning af Genmab aktier. Jeg har en stærk og alsidig uddannelsesmæssig baggrund som omfatter både graduate grader og postgraduate forskning i finansiering, international business, marketing og organisationsteori. Det er min ubarmhjertige dedikation til tværfagligt og livslang læring, der gør det muligt for mig at sammenstykke puslespil og nogle gange få en lille investering kant. Jeg bruger en simpel form for "strategisk sans-making", der har tilladt mig at klare sig bedre end markedet. Min tilgang lyder måske smart, men jeg er i bund og anerkender mine begrænsede evner. Jeg tydeligvis ikke kvalificeret til at gøre komplicerede finansielle og kvantitativ analyse bedre end den høje betalte analytikere og quants på førende finansielle institutioner. Biotech investeringer kræver yderligere stor indsats afsat til at forstå komplicerede aspekt af klinisk forskning, og jeg er ikke en biokemiker. Så jeg også stole på ekspertudtalelser til at levere den slags tekniske indsigt. Jeg er med andre ord dårligt kvalificerede til at diskutere små detaljer, men jeg gøre det bedre, når det kommer til at forbinde prikker og se det store billede.
Reaking FRI fra rat race og se verden med større klarhed
Den bestseller forfatter Nassim Taleb har formuleret min tilgang til at investere bedre end jeg nogensinde kunne gøre det selv. Nassim Taleb opfordrer sine læsere til at slå deres tv, når du ser Bloomberg eller CNBC. Han foreslår, at dette vil give dig mulighed for at se gennem de tomme ord og observere folk på skærmen mere dybt. Du vil derefter indse, hvor de fleste af de såkaldte eksperter er clueless om de kortsigtede bevægelser på markedet, at de er så travlt forklare og begrunde. Nassim Taleb anbefaler endvidere, at man afstår fra at se nyhederne eller endda læse dagblade med for meget fokus på aktuelle begivenheder. Han levende og overbevisende forklarer, hvordan mennesker, og især "eksperter" bliver fanget i en rotter race af meningsløse behandling meningsløse detaljer. Sight af det store billede er tabt, og de megatrends, der bestemmer de overordnede markedsbevægelser er savnet. Han konkluderer, at de fleste aviser og kilder til daglige nyheder blot giver støj, der skyer dit sind og skjuler din evne til at se det store billede.
Tag nogen egenkapital rapport om Genmab og overveje, hvor meget tid og energi gik ind i finansielle modellering af et enkelt punkt i den avancerede SOTP (sum-of-the-dele) analyse, der danner grundlag for DCF (discounted cash flow) beregning. Så overvej hvor få argumenter du finde på at retfærdiggøre, at den relevante WACC (WACC) er valgt. Selv en mindre ændring i WACC har en enorm indflydelse på NPV (nutidsværdi). Lad os høre et konkret eksempel ved at se på den fremragende egenkapital rapport af Danske Bank. Bare en lille smule af den finansielle lappeløsninger viser os, at den geniale aktieanalytiker Thomas Bowers vil være i stand til at øge sin målsætning om Genmab med omkring 25%, hvis han blot formindsker sin WACC fra 9% til 8%, samtidig med at alle andre skøn konstant. Lidt mere lappeløsninger vil endda vise, hvordan indikativprisen vil bevæge sig eksponentielt højere, hvis vi mindske WACC yderligere.
ANVENDELSE AF større klarhed til glimt den sande værdi af GENMAB
Aktieanalytikere har så travlt deltage fancy konferencer som ASH og ASCO mellemtiden også bruge megen tid går til forskellige investorpræsentationer og roadshows. De tilbringer dage eller endda uger knuse tal og bygge detaljerede prognoser. Men den nøjagtighed og dermed vigtigheden af dette arbejde bliver næsten meningsløs, når du begynder at tænke over, hvordan bittesmå ændringer i vilkårlige antagelser tider ændrer alt radikalt. Så hvad betyder det? Skulle du ikke lytte til, hvad de aktieanalytikere siger? Nå, er markedet lytter, og dette ofte tendens til at gøre aktiekurserne bevæge sig mod konsensus som forventet af analytikerne. Så effekten af selvopfyldende
Vi er meget heldige, når det kommer til Genmab. Vi har nemlig visse uafhængige markedsdeltagere observatører, der besidder ekstraordinære indsigt til egenkapitalen historien om Genmab. Det slående er, at de har travlt pitching nøjagtig samme historie som præsenteres her. Tænk for eksempel på Genmabs medstifter Florian Schönharting. Han har hele tiden forklaret os, at aktieanalytikere er bange for at træde ud af deres comfort zone og offentliggøre rapporter, som omfatter det sande omfang af strategisk værdi. Florian Schönharting har siden ASH 2015 gentagne gange erklæret, at dagsværdien af Genmab bør tillade os at se egenkapital rapporter med mål svævende ved eller over 2000 kroner per aktie. Perspektivet at Florian Schönharting tilbyder er en, der ikke er begrænset af den sædvanlige slaveri excel-ark baserede prognoser. Men så igen, han er også ingen mindre end "grand old man" i dansk biotek og en af grundlæggerne af vores elskede investeringsobjekt.
Andre observatører med en lignende grad af uafhængighed fra det etablerede netværk af, hvad der udgør "den finansielle industri" har også gjort meget bullish opkald. Blandt disse er den berømte danske biotek ekspert Peter Aabo, der var den seneste til at flytte ind i "super tyr" område ved at sætte et mål på op til 1600 kroner om Genmab aktien.
De faktorer, der kan låse op den sande værdi af GENMAB
Så hvilke yderligere forklarer den enorme modsætning mellem de "etablerede" aktieanalytikere og de uafhængige super tyre? De etablerede analytikere er simpelthen bange for at flytte til langt væk fra konsensus i markedet, og de er derfor langsomt justere parametrene for deres forskning til praktisk og roligt sætte pris på deres mål uden risiko for at overgår markedet og skabe en for stor værdi hul. De er med andre ord i overensstemmelse med den gennemsnitlige som stikker ud deres hals kan være dyrt.
Ægte spil skiftende øjeblikke opstår kun, når en person med den nødvendige indflydelse, de nødvendige finansielle muskler og stærk vilje beslutter at handle baseret på den sande strategisk værdi. Det er væsentligt, hvad der sker, når præmierne erhvervelse flytte op til 100% eller endnu mere i sjældne tilfælde. Skidt konsensus, der herskede og hæmmede realiseringen af en komplet vurdering ses bort som vrøvl af det overtagende part, der hovedsagelig betaler for ægte strategisk værdi og derved lukker værdien hul.
Kan du se skriften på væggen? Vi har flere større spillere fra den farmaceutiske industri med tilstrækkeligt dyb indsigt til fuldt ud at forstå de massive strategiske værdi, som Genmab giver dem. Disse selskaber vil allerede være kendt til nogle af læserne. Men, hvem de er -besides leder af ulveflokken (Janssen Pharmaceuticals NV) - er virkelig ikke et centralt fokus i denne artikel.
Frigøre WOLF
Åbningen erklæring lovede kontroverser, så lad os skynde os og levere på denne lokkende løfte højre væk. Genmab er i øjeblikket til salg! Ethvert forsøg på ledelsen til at afvise dette blot en klassisk virksomhedskultur paradeforestilling, der spilles for at sikre aktionærernes interesse.
Formulere elefanten i rummet så klart kan afholde nogle fra at fortsætte med at læse. Hvis du er en af dem, der tænker på ophørende nu, så du er ordentligt forudse, at følgende vil være alt for farverige og spekulativt til din smag. Nogle vil endda sige, at det er forståeligt, da emnet for en forestående overtagelse er blevet temmelig kontroversiel som også anført i starten af denne artikel. Men usikkerheden i en potentiel overtagelse opstår primært, da investorerne er fodret op med den konstante udbasunerer af overtagelsestilbud rygter. Denne træthed er trist som det dybest set repræsenterer en fejlslutning. Du kan simpelthen ikke bruge det skete ikke i går at godtgøre, at det ikke kommer til at ske i morgen. Denne artikel søger at peer dybere ind sandsynligheden for en fremtidig overtagelse og tilbyde nye uhøjtidelige argumenter i processen. Ambitionen går så langt som til at overbevise nogle af de mest nøgterne overtagelse modstandere.
DE FØRSTE OVERTAGELSE Rygter og en tur down memory lane
Vi har alle hørt det flere gange. Den snak om en potentiel overtagelse har været alle de vrede i lang tid nu. Men kan du ikke huske, at de første seriøse hvisker af en truende overtagelse faktisk begyndt så langt tilbage som da Jan van der Winkel startede hans tid som administrerende direktør. Formanden for den administrerende direktør havde knapt nedkøles fra den opvarmede afgang Lisa Drakeman da de første alarmklokker blev ringet. Genmab var en sand grim ælling dengang. Virksomheden blev kæmper for at sikre overlevelse på kort sigt på grund af en større likviditetskrise, dukkede op i kølvandet på "Zaltumumab" ikke i sen klinisk forsøg. Den "is-dronning" Lisa Drakeman havde over-optimistisk investeret en obskøn sum af omkring 1 milliard kroner i en nøglefærdig fabrik, der stod klar til at producere Zaltumumab. Dette var desværre før stoffet mislykkedes sen-fase klinisk forsøg udslette enhver chance for at få FDA stempel af godkendelse. Denne åbenlyse management fejl ikke kun bringe Genmab tæt på randen af konkurs. Den elendighed udløste også ankomsten af de første seriøse overtagelse rygter. Flere iagttagere tæt på virksomheden spekuleret på, at Glaxosmithkline ville udnytte den dystre katastrofe af Genmab til at købe selskabet.
Dette var i øvrigt, tilbage i de dage, hvor jeg skrev en artikel, der beskrev Genmab som en grim ælling, og foreslog, at selskabet kunne potentielt dukke op igen som en smuk svane en dag, da den nye administrerende direktør (Jan van der Winkel) havde fået sit rige sikkert under kontrol. Jeg husker tydeligt stadig, hvordan jeg opfordrede investorerne til at komme ombord på toget, da det var ved at forlade og hurdle mod land eventyr med Jan van der Winkel som føreren sætter tempoet. Walking ned hukommelse lane, jeg beder dig om at ignorere den hæslige danske "Janteloven" som alle, der trådte ombord på toget tilbage da kan nu trygt udbryde: "... Oh boy, var vi ret ..". Vi fik intet mindre end en virkelige liv eventyr og den bedste del er, at vi stadig savner at se det endelige og mest spændende kapitel udfolde sig.
ORD alle chips på bordet
Nok skamløse selvpromovering. Det er tilstrækkeligt til at konkludere, at jeg har nydt godt af en sund dosis af lykke i at kalde investeringscasen hidtil. Jeg er fortsat meget bullish, som jeg stadig overbevist i min ét år gamle + $ 10 milliarder topsales prognose for DARZALEX. Et stigende antal har nu sluttet mig i denne tro som en stigende række af overbevisende dokumentation mounts og fortsætter med at bygge fundamentet for en fremtidig MEGA BLOCKBUSTER. Dette er naturligvis sker, ikke mindst takket være den stærke engagement Janssen, der har været den bedst mulige partner for Genmab indtil nu.
Min bullishness er dybest set så ekstrem, at jeg har lagt alle mine jetoner på bordet i en all-in bet for en overtagelse sker inden udgangen af dette år. De involverede skriftligt denne indsatserne er derfor uhyrligt høje. Jeg bogstaveligt talt føler, at jeg jonglerer mellem odds for enten at blive latterliggjort eller tager hjem den store gevinst som strateg, der sindrigt lykkedes at afdække sandheden og gøre en absolut drab i processen. Bagsiden af medaljen ikke skræmme mig som risiko og belønning perspektiv er meget gunstige. Det er også grunden til, at du kan være sikker på at mine chips forblive på bordet, uanset de høje stakes er involveret i denne all-in bullish træk. Lad os ikke bekymre dig for meget om den bagside af medaljen nu. Lad os i stedet bekymre sig om opkald til bluff af forvaltningen, der er helt klart i den indledende fase af det skjulte forbereder Genmab for et salg og konditionering aktionærerne for en kommende bud. Den foretrukket erhverve ville utvivlsomt være Janssen. Men der er også andre, som kan blive sandsynligvis første-movers, så en blå himmel scenario realistisk kunne omfatte mulighederne for en decideret budkrig. Det er for tidligt at begynde at tale om de bydende, før vi fuldt ud forstår, hvorfor en anskaffelse i kortene for Genmab.
Indrømmet, kan dette virke som meget spekulative overvejelser, men vi har netop blottede vidne til en forbløffende begivenhed, der klart antyder M & A aktiviteter lurer lige rundt om hjørnet. Markedet har dog i høj grad valgt at ignorere de klare hints modtaget. Dette er et eksempel på irrationel adfærd, og det er et symptom, der klart understreger, hvordan markedet er blevet immune over for overtagelse-samtaler. Års vedholdende rygter og en kontinuerlig brummer fra overtagelse fortalerne har forårsaget en investor træthed, som lammer markedet som vi er i det væsentlige meget tæt på at få bolden op. Du bør spørge dig selv et meget vigtigt spørgsmål på dette tidspunkt. Hvem har mulighed for at udnytte og drage fordel af denne situation? Prøv at lade dette spørgsmål blive hængende på bagsiden af dit sind, før vi i fællesskab vil vende tilbage til det i slutningen af denne artikel.
DRENGEN DER råbte WOLF
Tænk på fabel om den "lille dreng, der råbte ulv". Det er en fortælling om en hyrdedreng, der gentagne gange tåber nærliggende landsbyboere til at tro, at ulven er kommer til at tage sin fåreflok. Fårene så endelig ender blive spist af ulven, da ingen af landsbyboerne mener drengen, da han advarer om en rigtig ulv. Lad mig stave det for dig. Genmab er vores får, den lille dreng er indbegrebet af M & A alarmklokker, landsbyboerne repræsenterer markedet og vores ulv er den overtagende part.
EKSEMPLER PÅ trædesten på vejen mod KOLLEKTIV benægtelse
Lad det være sagt med det samme, har jeg deltaget i kørsel stemningen på markedet i retning af samme sindstilstand som landsbyboerne i vores fabel. Imidlertid blev dette gjort i en god tro og med oprigtige motiver. Andre vigtige markedsaktører har deltaget mere foragteligt i et spil skamløst fremme overtagelsen scenario. De er således skyldig på lige fod med hyrde dreng fra vores fabel. Husk, hvordan Michael Novod fra Nordea omfattede en alternativ M & A mål i en analyse offentliggjort sidste år. Husk, hvordan Goldman Sachs forbavsende besluttet at inkludere en vægtet del af deres mål fra en tilsyneladende vilkårligt etableret potentiel anskaffelsessum på 1500 kroner. Husk, hvordan den danske pension gigant ATP-meget strangely- pludselig begyndte at tale offentligt om en strategi for at mindske risikoen for en overtagelse. Tænk Jeffries, der for nylig udstedte en rapport, som identificerede Genmab som en varm opkøbsmål. Listen med eksempler bliver ved og ved. Vi har generelt oplevet så mange små antydninger af en forestående overtagelse, at vi har et kæmpe kor af hyrder synger om fremkomsten af ulven. Størrelsen og omfanget af de spor til rådighed, er derfor så overvældende, at vi er nødt til at indsnævre vores fokus. Derfor er alle vores opmærksomhed er snart forvandlet til en earthshattering begivenhed, der fandt sted i Amsterdam for nylig. Det er denne begivenhed, der vil blive brugt som vores omdrejningspunkt i bestræbelserne på at forstå, hvorfor Genmab ikke vil overleve 2016 som en selvstændig juridisk enhed.
Vores nøgle takeaway fra fabel af drengen, der råbte ulv er så langt, at 99% af markedet er i kollektiv tilstand af benægtelse om den enorme og hurtige værdiskabelse, der er i gang på Genmab. Markedet er i en "landsbybeboer" sindstilstand, og dette forhindrer det store flertal af aktionærerne fra at se skoven for bare træer. Præcis dette fænomen er også, hvad der udgør din chance for at investere med en kant. Du kan i øjeblikket købe Genmab aktier med hvad der svarer til en gratis call option på en overtagelse præmie. Denne mulighedernes vindue burde lukke som aktiemarkedet til sidst vågner op og begynder at prisen på den øgede sandsynlighed for en overtagelse. Du bliver derfor nødt til at handle hurtigt, hvis du ønsker at udnytte ineffektivitet den fremherskende markedet. Den stigmatiseret aurora har hidtil med held slukket hver M & A brand, der var låg. Nogen vil selv formår at tænde bål, der varer ved, og det meget hurtigt bliver scorchingly varmt, når dette sker.
Ingen røg UDEN BRAND OG CEO, der også PLUDSELIG begyndte at græde WOLF
Vores landsbyboere kun se en meget svag puf af røg, før det hurtigt fordamper, hver gang nogen har grædt ulv. Men, mine kære kolleger investorer, skal du huske, at der er aldrig røg uden en brand ulmer et sted.
Den ulmende ild blev meget mere tydelig, da indsatsen i vores fabel brat blevet rejst da kongen selv ind på scenen. Vores CEO forbavsende blev en del af røg puster cast, da han verbaliseret eksistensen af en ulv på en lille møde investor afholdt i Amsterdam den 09 / 03-2016. Jan van der Winkel faktisk udånding sådan tyk røg, at man kunne undre sig, hvis han besøgte en af de berømte "coffee shops", som Amsterdam er så notorisk kendt for. For overskuelighedens skyld, vores CEO var tydeligvis ikke højt på stoffer, som er ulovligt i de fleste jurisdiktioner uden for Holland. Men. han må have været højt på naturligt inducerede endorfiner, som han ellers ikke ville have været tilbøjelig til at tale så frit som han gjorde om overtagelser og præmier erhvervelse. Men lad os ikke fokusere for meget på, hvad "flyder båden" af vores CEO, når man besøger sit hjemland. Lad os i stedet fokusere på, hvad han faktisk sagde, da de ord, han brugte virkelig gør sin tale en "milepæl præsentation" i kommunikations form.
Det var den skelsættende præsentation, der sikrede vores CEO en ledende rolle i vores fabel. Hans valg af ord i løbet af præsentationen fremdrives ham sikkert ind i en ledende rolle blandt vores store gruppe af hyrder. Jan van der Winkel var ikke bare græd ulven ligesom resten af hyrderne. Nej, han var faktisk skrigende det fra toppen af hans lunger. Den kraftig støj, der udgik fra mødet var så overbevisende klart, at det udgør et solidt bevis på forudsætninger for dem, der allerede fast troende i overtagelsen hypotese. Problemet er, at mange landsbyboere fortsætter med at trodse al logik og energisk afviser sandsynligheden for en overtagelse, selv efter at de har været vidne til Kongen selv skrigende ulv. Det betyder, at røgen fra M & A brand, som Jan van der Winkel forsøgte at antænde ikke engang nå trætoppene og markedet derfor helt gået glip af båden.
Hr Rob Gossens som er en anerkendt journalist fra den mest fremtrædende hollandske avis (De Telegraaf) deltog i mødet, hvor Jan van der Winkel holdt sin skelsættende præsentation. Den administrerende direktør var ikke klar over, at en journalist deltog og hans bivirkning når han lært om dette gør det rimeligt at antage, at han faktisk talte mere frit end normalt. Rob Gossens ikke var blevet immuniseret ved den fremherskende aurora af stigmatisering, der kvæler alle Genmab relaterede M & A brummer. Så vi er i det væsentlige meget heldig, at han var til stede for at indfange det fulde omfang af de overraskende bemærkninger, Jan van der Winkel var iteration under sin præsentation.
THE WOLF AS formuleret af JAN VAN DER WINKEL
Rob Gossens var så hypnotiseret af hvad han hørte, at han besluttede at fokusere kraftigt på M & A vink i en artikel, at han skrev kort efter mødet. Det er kun takket være denne artikel, som vi har ved, hvordan Jan van der Winkel effektivt sprang ud af skabet og bekræftede sandsynligheden for en overtagelse af Janssen.
Artiklen blev publiceret i hollandsk og det dermed ikke samle den internationale bevidsthed om, at det fortjente. Det er vanskeligt at kopiere de nøjagtige meddelelser af alle de meget små detaljer uden at risikere at ændre betydningen en smule. Denne risiko for skred er blevet afbødet ved at søge rådgivning hos journalisten direkte. Hr Rob Gossens er blevet hørt flere gange om artiklen og dens tilbud. Dette gav Rob Gossens til gentagne gange bekræfte, at indholdet af artiklen repræsenterer en præcis, gyldig og ærlig redegørelse for, hvad der blev sagt under investor møde. Kindly mærke til, hvordan følgende direkte citater fra artiklen fokuserer primært på genudgiver eksplicitte citater fra Jan van der Winkel:
----- Start på citat fra "Telegraaf" -----
Van Winkel antænder bålet ved at henvise til det faktum, at januar var den værste måned nogensinde for biotek. "Dette er et godt tidspunkt at få ombord". Han efterfølgende fortsætter med at vurdere hans selskab Genmab, der har en fabelagtig lægemiddel med sin kræft medicin Darzalex.
Markedet har anerkendt Genmab som moden til overtagelse i to år nu. Van der Winkel ikke trækkes tilbage rygterne. Han, om det modsatte, henviser til overtagelse af Pharmacyclics af Abbvie for 21B USD. Johnson og Johnson blev outsmarted af dette for et år siden. Van de Winkel: "J & J vil ikke lade dette ske igen De har selv 35B." Gemt "Ikke at jeg ønsker at give slip på Genmab" fortsætter han, "oversøiske En overtagelse bliver mere og mere tiltrækkende for dem.".. Men hvis det kommer så langt, så vil det være en venlig overtagelse. Men jeg forventer, en præmie på 100% i forhold til nuværende aktiekurs. "
----- Slut på citat fra "Telegraaf" -----
Ovenstående udsagn var så forbløffende, at de tvang din forfatter at kalde journalisten umiddelbart efter at have læst den oprindelige avisartikel. Samtalen banede vejen for en forståelse af de eksplicitte omstændigheder, hvorunder de citater blev opnået. Det blev klart, hvordan Jan van der Winkel var stort set uopfordret og handlede uafhængigt, når de foretager de erklæringer. Niveauet af autonomi er betydelig, da det virkelig understreger, hvordan strategisk fantastisk den anvendte retorik er.
Lad os nu bruge et par minutter at undersøge og diskutere citater i lidt flere detaljer. Jan van der Winkel starter sin fantastiske rejse ind ulv område ved at understrege, at det er et historisk attraktivt tidspunkt at købe biotek nu hvor vi er i kølvandet på den mest grusomme biotek korrektion nogensinde. Denne bemærkning gør, for pålydende, synes ikke særlig bemærkelsesværdig. Men det helt sikkert bliver meget bemærkelsesværdig engang betragtning af at det blev brugt til at sætte scenen for, hvad fulgte. En direktør fra et bioteknologisk firma skal generelt afholde sig fra at tilbyde uopfordret kommentarer om tilstanden af biotek-sektoren ved sammenkomster, der udelukkende er bestemt for biotek investorer. Det har meget begrænset relevans, da risikoen er den samme på tværs af hele sektoren. Risikoen er relateret til den unikke og specifikke langsigtede equity story, at den administrerende direktør bør fokusere på at fremme i stedet.
Jan van der Winkel fortsætter sin tale og udstøder noget om eksistensen af vedholdende opkøbsrygter. Hvis dette ikke allerede er kontroversielt, ja så er det virkelig ikke bliver kontroversiel, når den næste pust bruges til at fastslå, at spekulationer ikke kan tages af bordet. Dette er en absolut chokerende bemærkning fra en CEO, der tidligere holdt meget konservativ og dæmpet, når bliver spurgt om M & A rygter!
Der er ingen tvivl om, at en lignende erklæring fra en amerikansk CEO ville have resulteret i en næsten øjeblikkelig reaktion. En køber vanvid foregår ofte inden for få minutter efter sådanne bemærkninger formidles til USA børsen. Det skal siges, at et opsving på dette grundlag ville have tendens til at eksistere kun som en kortvarig spike medmindre yderligere M & A indikationer opstår. Spørgsmålet er ikke, hvor stor en reaktion, vi skulle have set. Det er mere en diskussion af det faktum, at vi skulle have set nogle reaktion. Men aktiekursen ikke engang rokke den mindste smule efter nyheden om den skelsættende præsentationen ramt markedet.
Men mest spændende signal fra Amsterdam ses på den måde, Jan van der Winkel besluttet at fremme en følelse af overtagelsen-haster. Han dygtigt understreger, at Janssen har en brændende platform grundet historiske begivenheder, der virkelig ikke vedrører ham eller Genmab. Han gør det ved at beskrive, hvordan en frygt for at miste erhvervelse kampe hersker efter Janssen undladt at erhverve Pharmacyclics der blev stjålet af Abbvie lige ved målstregen. Det er meget uhensigtsmæssigt for vores CEO at tale om dette på et investormøde konference. Hans bemærkninger er meget ejendommelig og det synes næsten, som om han har hentet inspiration fra "Vågn op Danmark - den store stygge ulv kommer". Hans måde at formulere og formidle en følelse af uopsættelighed blotter sikkert en slående lighed med den måde, at Pharmacyclics affaire oprindeligt blev præsenteret i "Vågn op Danmark - den store stygge ulv kommer".
Den forbløffende afsløringer synes at komme i en næsten endeløs strøm som Jan van der Winkel fortsætter med at levere mere ildkraft, at våben fortalerne for købet scenario. Han faktisk går så langt som til at fremme Janssen s pladskrævende oversøisk kontanter reservoir som bevis for eksistensen af midlerne til at fremsætte overtagelsestilbud. For at sikre, at folk fuldt griber hvad der sandsynligvis vil opstå han også tager sig tid til at understrege, at interessen for en overtagelse fortsætter med at vokse.
Jan van der Winkel så endelig når sin konklusion, som han siger et prisskilt med 100% præmie som en rimelig entry level billet til enhver overvejer at indlede en overtagelse. Det er primært en standard high-range biotek erhvervelse præmie og mest overraskende om hans konklusion er derfor, at han navne dette som det forventede prisniveau for "friendly overtagelse".
Mine damer og herrer, eller skulle jeg sige hyrder, vågne op og lugte kaffen, det har faktisk været under opsejling i lang tid nu! Ulven er faktisk kommer og vores får har ingen intentioner om at løbe væk længere. Jan van der Winkel har væsentlige netop plantet en kæmpe "TIL SALG" skilt lige foran din næse, og du skal købe Genmab aktier ligesom der ikke var nogen i morgen. Skriften på væggen er krystalklart og den ledsagende illustrationer, vi kan beundre er nu blevet underskrevet af den administrerende direktør. Manglende indse dette betyder, at du skal tilhøre den gruppe af landsbyboere fra vores fabel.
En halvhjertet forsøg AT slukke branden
Jan van der Winkel gav en tv-transmitteret interview på den årlige generalforsamling for aktionærerne. Det var under dette interview, at han blev konfronteret med artiklen fra "De Telegraaf". Lad det være klart, at han simpelthen havde intet andet valg end at afvise artiklens indhold. Han var gendrive indholdet af artiklen så kraftigt, at han faktisk forpustet op griner som han afskediget de citater som ønsker journalisten. Dette væsentlige efterlader os i en situation, hvor vi har ord journalisten Rob Gossens mod ord Jan van der Winkel.
Din forfatter personligt talt med Rob Gossens ved flere lejligheder i de sidste uger, og det må siges, at han ikke er præcis en ekspert på Genmab. Rob Gossens havde ikke kendskab til en lang baggrund med M & A rygter, da han skrev sin artikel, og han bestemt ikke står til at vinde noget fra falsk opdigte de omtvistede citater han udgivet. Han faktisk ikke engang genkende kontroversen af hele sagen. Rob Gossen simpelthen ikke havde nogen idé om, at han var åbne en ægte Pandoras æske. Hans mangel på viden går langt i at bevise, at han skal være sandfærdig i sine citater. Den tungtvejende argument for pålidelighed og gyldighed er, at Rob Gossens ikke vidste noget om den mislykkede erhvervelse Pharmacyclics før Jan van der Winkel forklarede om dette under sin præsentation.
Genmab har været yderst ubeslutsom og vage i deres handlinger efter avisartikel. "De Telegraaf" er den største hollandske avis og Genmab burde have krævet en øjeblikkelig tilbagetrækning. Rob Gossen bekræfter, at hverken han eller hans avis er blevet kontaktet af Genmab med en sådan anmodning. Genmab skal også have reageret mere skarpt, når danske avis "Børsen" fulgte op på historien ved at offentliggøre et kort resumé af artiklen i "De Telegraaf". Genmab i stedet vikles med at give et par meget uheldige citater, forklarede, hvordan det er "business as usual" for deres CEO at besvare spørgsmål om fjendtlige overtagelser. Dette er som at sammenligne æbler med appelsiner som Jan van der Winkel var ikke besvare spørgsmål og bestemt også talte ikke om fjendtlige overtagelser.
Jan van der Winkel er en meget entusiastisk og engageret administrerende direktør. Han har dybest set en lang track record, der afslører gentagne problemer med at holde sin begejstring tilbageholdende, når han bliver for ophidset. Foredraget i Amsterdam fandt sted i intime omgivelser med ca. 25-30 investorer og Jan van der Winkel vidste ikke, at en journalist var til stede i mængden. Vi kender dette som Jan van der Winkel var meget overrasket, da Rob Gossens præsenterede sig selv og forklarede, at han var en journalist. Nåle til at sige, at Jan van der Winkel ikke ønsker at tilføje yderligere farve til billedet, han havde så kunstfærdigt malet fra scenen kun få minutter siden.
Opfedning fårene
Landsbyboere eller ej, nogle af jer måske overraskende stadig tvivl om den forestående ankomst af ulven. Sådanne følelser af vantro kan grundlæggende kun rationaliseres, hvis de er berettiget på grundlag af manglende beviser. Den gennemsnitlige landsbybeboer vil korrekt argumentere for, at en enkelt præsentation og hurtig slip af en tunge plus subjektive fortolkninger af en journalist er et utilstrækkeligt grundlag for at lægge alle deres æg i en kurv. Men der er masser af uafhængige beviser for, at der er stigende op. Husk, hvordan vi startede vores rejse ved at se på et par eksempler, som hver især peger mod sandsynligheden for en overtagelse. Denne artikel har dog endnu ikke fokuseret yderligere på alt dette. Har ingen bekymringer, denne artikel kun er det første i en serie af publikationer, der gradvist vil vove langt dybere ind i emnet for den truende overtagelse og afdække, hvorfor markedsværdien af Genmab i øjeblikket bør være mindst 50% højere end hvad markedet indser i dag .
En genvej til en mere berettiget aktiekursen er skønt at overbevise landsbyboere. Det er ved at aktivere dem, at vi vil se Genmab handel højere som i en fysisk manifestation af, hvordan vi får mere kød på vores får. Vi har hurtigt brug for nogle ekstra fedt før de sultne og desperate pakke ulv bevæger sig i for at dræbe.
En HURTIG TWIST AF VORES TALE og en antydning HVOR FØLGENDE
En indholdsfortegnelse for efterfølgeren til "drengen der råbte ulv" er allerede blevet udtænkt. dato Den nøjagtige release desværre stadig indhyllet i mystik. Timingen af frigivelsen delvist afhænger udfoldning og emergent begivenheder på markedet. Men, det desværre også afhænger meget ved at gøre tid på dagsordenen for din forfatter til at skrive det.
Så hvorfor skulle du se frem til efterfølgeren?
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Jeg har tilladt mig at Google-oversætte Davids indlæg. Det er jo ikke alle der er lige skrappe til engelsk. Vi må så finde os i at regne alle de spøjse "fejloversættelser" ud.
Tak for et flot og velskrevet indlæg.
I det store billede, mangler jeg dog en plausibel tese omkring, J&J store salg af Genmab aktier af 2 omgange.
Det er klart at Genmab, er en overtagelses kandidat.
Men der kan næppe være noget konkret, eftersom bestyrelsesmedlemmer indenfor den sidste måned har solgt ud af deres warrents ligeså hurtigt som de fik dem i lommen.
mvh jkj
I det store billede, mangler jeg dog en plausibel tese omkring, J&J store salg af Genmab aktier af 2 omgange.
Det er klart at Genmab, er en overtagelses kandidat.
Men der kan næppe være noget konkret, eftersom bestyrelsesmedlemmer indenfor den sidste måned har solgt ud af deres warrents ligeså hurtigt som de fik dem i lommen.
mvh jkj
22/3 2016 21:45 ROI - David Mygind 2
74464 Hej JKJ
Tak for roserne og hermed i øvrigt også tak til alle andre.
J&J har forsat fuld eksponering mod Genmab via derivater. Dette foreligger der bekræftelse på direkte fra GS og netop denne slags ting vil blive fokusområdet for det følgende indlæg i "ulve-serien".
Mvh
ROI - David Mygind
Tak for roserne og hermed i øvrigt også tak til alle andre.
J&J har forsat fuld eksponering mod Genmab via derivater. Dette foreligger der bekræftelse på direkte fra GS og netop denne slags ting vil blive fokusområdet for det følgende indlæg i "ulve-serien".
Mvh
ROI - David Mygind
Hvad der på overfladen lignede salg af JJDC aktier kan meget vel være en anden virkelighed. I meddelelsen stod at det var et salg samtidig med at der blev hedged. Derfor kendes ikke hvad der i virkeligheden foregik.
De bestyrelsesmedlemmer du henviser til beholdte faktisk nogle af aktierne modsat af hvad de gjorde sidste år på samme tidspunkt, hvor alt blev solgt.
Solsen
De bestyrelsesmedlemmer du henviser til beholdte faktisk nogle af aktierne modsat af hvad de gjorde sidste år på samme tidspunkt, hvor alt blev solgt.
Solsen
