Genmab: Meeting JnJ CFO, Celgene Head of HemeOnc and leading US myeloma KOL
During the trip we also met with JnJ and the company's CFO Dominic Caruso. Our take-away from that meeting in a Genmab context, is that JnJ is extremely satisfied with the Darzalex uptake and current sales traction. Overall, we believe that the market is too focused on the monthly Darzalex sales figures and should rather focus on the very strong underlying traction for Darzalex since launch as well as the significant upside potential. Monthly sales remain on track for Darzalex to generate up to USD ~950-1000m in the US in 2017 - we model USD 978m - as well as closer to USD 1.3-1.4bn globally in the second year on the market for the drug. JnJ highlighted the considerable clinical programme that is running for Darzalex across multiple myeloma, other hematologic malignancies and solid cancers. With regards to the latter, we believe it was clear from the JnJ meeting, that should an efficacy signal be seen in one or more of the ph II trials; then JnJ is ready to commit major additional investments to the Darzalex development programme. JnJ also has its own PD1 inhibitor in development that over time could be combined with Darzalex, which is interesting. JnJ also noted that reimbursement for Darzalex is very strong, also outside the US where many countries have endorsed the product and hence also the pricing. This is clearly driven by the extremely strong data generated with Darzalex to date. JnJ also highlighted that the Alcyone ph III frontline data for Darzalex+VMP will be presented at an upcoming medial meeting (ASH is likely) and we expect to see the Revlimid+Dara frontline data in 2018. Overall, JnJ sees extremely strong growth for Darzalex ahead with the MM market growing with a 17% CAGR over the coming 5 years and Darzalex becoming more and more entrenched as the MM backbone therapy.
Our meeting with one of the leading US MM key opinion leaders from one of the largest US MM hospitals also pinpointed the significant potential of Darzalex. Our KOL noted that as soon as frontline data is available for Darzalex+Revlimid and Darzalex gets approved in the frontline setting with Revlimid, the drug will be used immediately in all myeloma patients. Currently, the uptake in the second-line setting is swift and the KOL noted that there are no reimbursement problems at all in the US. At this KOLs institution, they have not had any refusals for reimbursement at all in the approved settings. Also the KOL emphasised that infusion time can be brought down to 2-3 hours, which will likely also soon be showcased in data presented at a medical meeting. The KOL feedback provided very strong comfort to our view on Darzalex and future sales uptake.
At Celgene, we met with the new Head of Hematology & Oncology, Mr. Nadim Ahmed. Also here we came away with a strong impression for how Celgene is performing in the MM market, but also how Darzalex is likely helping to increase duration of treatment in MM. With Darzalex added to e.g. Revlimid or Pomalyst, the duration of treatment could be many many years, which was also emphasised at the KOL meeting. This is not reflected in our modelling at the current stage where we use 18 months as the maximum duration of treatment in certain of the settings.
During the trip we also met with JnJ and the company's CFO Dominic Caruso. Our take-away from that meeting in a Genmab context, is that JnJ is extremely satisfied with the Darzalex uptake and current sales traction. Overall, we believe that the market is too focused on the monthly Darzalex sales figures and should rather focus on the very strong underlying traction for Darzalex since launch as well as the significant upside potential. Monthly sales remain on track for Darzalex to generate up to USD ~950-1000m in the US in 2017 - we model USD 978m - as well as closer to USD 1.3-1.4bn globally in the second year on the market for the drug. JnJ highlighted the considerable clinical programme that is running for Darzalex across multiple myeloma, other hematologic malignancies and solid cancers. With regards to the latter, we believe it was clear from the JnJ meeting, that should an efficacy signal be seen in one or more of the ph II trials; then JnJ is ready to commit major additional investments to the Darzalex development programme. JnJ also has its own PD1 inhibitor in development that over time could be combined with Darzalex, which is interesting. JnJ also noted that reimbursement for Darzalex is very strong, also outside the US where many countries have endorsed the product and hence also the pricing. This is clearly driven by the extremely strong data generated with Darzalex to date. JnJ also highlighted that the Alcyone ph III frontline data for Darzalex+VMP will be presented at an upcoming medial meeting (ASH is likely) and we expect to see the Revlimid+Dara frontline data in 2018. Overall, JnJ sees extremely strong growth for Darzalex ahead with the MM market growing with a 17% CAGR over the coming 5 years and Darzalex becoming more and more entrenched as the MM backbone therapy.
Our meeting with one of the leading US MM key opinion leaders from one of the largest US MM hospitals also pinpointed the significant potential of Darzalex. Our KOL noted that as soon as frontline data is available for Darzalex+Revlimid and Darzalex gets approved in the frontline setting with Revlimid, the drug will be used immediately in all myeloma patients. Currently, the uptake in the second-line setting is swift and the KOL noted that there are no reimbursement problems at all in the US. At this KOLs institution, they have not had any refusals for reimbursement at all in the approved settings. Also the KOL emphasised that infusion time can be brought down to 2-3 hours, which will likely also soon be showcased in data presented at a medical meeting. The KOL feedback provided very strong comfort to our view on Darzalex and future sales uptake.
At Celgene, we met with the new Head of Hematology & Oncology, Mr. Nadim Ahmed. Also here we came away with a strong impression for how Celgene is performing in the MM market, but also how Darzalex is likely helping to increase duration of treatment in MM. With Darzalex added to e.g. Revlimid or Pomalyst, the duration of treatment could be many many years, which was also emphasised at the KOL meeting. This is not reflected in our modelling at the current stage where we use 18 months as the maximum duration of treatment in certain of the settings.
