"Trying to time the market can be dangerous, but there are certain signals that the professionals look for when trying to gauge future risk in stocks which could be helpful for regular investors to monitor.
Bank of America Securities curated a "bear market signposts" list for clients to help predict when stocks might be close to embarking on a bear market. The list of 19 signals ranges from fundamental to sentiment-related indicators and uses data tracking back more than 50 years.
Currently 63% of the bear market signposts have been triggered, up from 47% in January. Since 1968, when 80% of the indicators are triggered, a bear market occurred, meaning stocks fell 20% from their most recent highs.
"Stocks appear to be pricing in more good news than bad," Bank of America equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian said in a recent note to clients.
The signposts list was almost triggered in October of 2018 when it hit 79%. The S&P 500 went on to briefly dip into bear market territory on an intraday basis following that signal, and suffered its worst December since the Great Depression. The Fed raising rates, as they did in 2018, is a trigger on the bear market signal list, as bear markets have always been preceded by the Fed hiking rates by at least 75 basis points from the cycle trough.
Here's a full list of the bear market indicators from Bank of America:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/heres-how-to-tell-a-bear-market-is-coming.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
Kilde: CNBC
Bank of America Securities curated a "bear market signposts" list for clients to help predict when stocks might be close to embarking on a bear market. The list of 19 signals ranges from fundamental to sentiment-related indicators and uses data tracking back more than 50 years.
Currently 63% of the bear market signposts have been triggered, up from 47% in January. Since 1968, when 80% of the indicators are triggered, a bear market occurred, meaning stocks fell 20% from their most recent highs.
"Stocks appear to be pricing in more good news than bad," Bank of America equity and quant strategist Savita Subramanian said in a recent note to clients.
The signposts list was almost triggered in October of 2018 when it hit 79%. The S&P 500 went on to briefly dip into bear market territory on an intraday basis following that signal, and suffered its worst December since the Great Depression. The Fed raising rates, as they did in 2018, is a trigger on the bear market signal list, as bear markets have always been preceded by the Fed hiking rates by at least 75 basis points from the cycle trough.
Here's a full list of the bear market indicators from Bank of America:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/heres-how-to-tell-a-bear-market-is-coming.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain
Kilde: CNBC
Jeg er hverken klog nok eller gammel nok. Jeg har oplevet 2000 i krisen men var ikke spor opmærksom på hvad der skete.
Jeg har oplevet 2008 krisen og var opmærksom på det, og forsøgte da også at handle lidt.
Det virker på mig til at især FED / USA men også ECB aktivt gør alt hvad de kan for at forhindre dette. Er det ikke nyt? Har det ikke ofte været sådan at de har forsøgt at rydde op bagefter?
Umiddelbart tænker jeg at det nok er en hård kamp, men trods alt bedre at tage det i opløbet???
Derudover kunne man måske være bekymret om de faktisk formår det. Og hvis ikke, har de så gjort problemet større ved at prøve?
Likviditeten i markedet er enorm. Det skulle mindske risikoen. Det gør det sikkert! Men hvad hvis det alligevel sker. Rammer det så lidt som en boomerang?
Renterne er meget lave. Det skulle mindske risikoen, men rammer det (også) som en boomerang?
Det sidste 'normale' skridt er vel at øge offentlige udgifter, især at lave nogle gode sunde investering i infrastruktur, forskning og/eller uddannelse.
Det virker på mig som om dette værktøj ikke rigtigt er taget i brug endnu, men det er måske heller ikke det rigtige tidspunkt, når arbejdsløsheden i USA og Nordeuropa, i hvert fald på papiret, er meget lav.
Jeg har oplevet 2008 krisen og var opmærksom på det, og forsøgte da også at handle lidt.
Det virker på mig til at især FED / USA men også ECB aktivt gør alt hvad de kan for at forhindre dette. Er det ikke nyt? Har det ikke ofte været sådan at de har forsøgt at rydde op bagefter?
Umiddelbart tænker jeg at det nok er en hård kamp, men trods alt bedre at tage det i opløbet???
Derudover kunne man måske være bekymret om de faktisk formår det. Og hvis ikke, har de så gjort problemet større ved at prøve?
Likviditeten i markedet er enorm. Det skulle mindske risikoen. Det gør det sikkert! Men hvad hvis det alligevel sker. Rammer det så lidt som en boomerang?
Renterne er meget lave. Det skulle mindske risikoen, men rammer det (også) som en boomerang?
Det sidste 'normale' skridt er vel at øge offentlige udgifter, især at lave nogle gode sunde investering i infrastruktur, forskning og/eller uddannelse.
Det virker på mig som om dette værktøj ikke rigtigt er taget i brug endnu, men det er måske heller ikke det rigtige tidspunkt, når arbejdsløsheden i USA og Nordeuropa, i hvert fald på papiret, er meget lav.
