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HANSA BIOPHARMA - Ny analyse.


85767 B.Andersen 13/8 2020 11:34
Oversigt

Intron Health Research har netop taget dækning på Hansa med PT SEK 385. Det er en god rapport som fortæller om teknologi platformen og mulighederne udover transplantation. Hele rapporten er vedhæftet.

"Hansa is a Swedish rare disease biotech whose lead asset, Idefirix, recently received a positive CHMP opinion for use in highly sensitised kidney transplant patients. Idefirix's highly elegant & effective profile makes it a pipeline & a platform technology in itself. Hansa's recent successes have made it big enough to be within most investors' investment universe and we see 50% upside. There are multiple S-T catalysts, numerous sources of upside to our valuation, commercialisation could be aided by kidney transplant guideline updates & mgmt have expertise in shifting treatment paradigms. Bone marrow transplant indication could add SEK32/share to cons.

Idefirix In Kidney Transplant Alone Accounts for Current Mkt Cap
An EU7 launch in Q4 & the ongoing pivotal US trial could generate peak sales of $500m. We expect a slow sales ramp but believe updated clinical guidelines would materially accelerate revenues above our forecasts.

Material Upside from Future Gene Therapy Deals
We estimate the Sarepta deal is worth SEK37/share. There are 300 gene therapies in development & 20 already FDA-approved, with many likely to experience viral vector antibody issues, so this is a large opportunity.

Many Sources of Upside and Multiple Near-Term Catalysts
We do not include: 1) New gene therapy deals 2) Out-licensing of Idefirix in ROW 3) Any sales from the pipeline. We see multiple catalysts including; 1) Guideline updates, 2) Anti-GBM P2 in 3Q, 3) Oct 29th CMD.

Hansa Should be Profitable by 2023 and Have Enough Cash
The recent $120m equity raise should see Hansa through to cashflow positive and it should be able to raise debt to fund the US launch. Clinical trials could be accelerated and expanded given the new cash injection.

SOTP Valuation Implies 50% Upside with Potential for More
EU & US kidney transplant indication is worth SEK257/share & there is S-T upside from gene therapy deals & ROW kidney out-licensing deals.


Naresh Chouhan
+44 207 375 9143
naresh@intronhealthresearch.com

Dominic Rose
+44 207 375 9141
dominic@intronhealthresearch.com

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pdfIntro_Health_Research_Initiation__..



13/8 2020 13:47 Bingo Lau 185770



Tak for deling Hr. Andersen.
Det ser godt ud!



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