D. 13. oktober 2020
"Dry Bulk: Our earlier outlined Base Case is playing out before our eyes, with strong Chinese demand for dry bulk as the economy is normalizing and authorities are adding stimuli. Chinese steel production has reached a new all-time-highs, and inventories of steel and iron ore have fallen. With Brazil exporting iron ore at all-time-high levels, our only near-term concern is a potential Chinese import ban on Australian coal. We expect seasonal factors could weigh on dry bulk in 1Q21E, but nevertheless see consecutive annual gains until at least 2023E amidst the lowest orderbook on record. The segment remains our top pick within shipping, and we forecast our share index +126% over the next year & +190% over two years.
Oil Tankers: The year has so far been in the spirit of the Greek god Janus, with oil supply far outpacing demand from January to April, before reversing the roles thereafter. As expected, oil tanker spot rates are now hovering around opex amidst a rout in oil supply concurrent with an oil inventory destocking cycle. We look towards 3Q21E for the cyclical trough and see significant improvements thereafter, supported by the lowest orderbook since 1996 and strong demand growth. Before then, we could see some short-lived gains during 4Q20E. We forecast our oil tanker share index +10% in 4Q20E -17% by 3Q21E and potentially +160% by 2024E
LNG Carriers: An active Hurricane season has impacted US LNG exports negatively in 3Q20, but rising natural gas prices at import destinations and contango in the natural gas future curves leave us optimistic towards 4Q20E. Thereafter, we expect LNG Carrier earnings to stay low amidst healthy fleet growth and limited demand growth until a potential super-cycle develops from 2024E.
LPG Carriers: VLGC earnings came in far above our forecast for 3Q20, mainly due to fleet inefficiencies tying up tonnage. We do however see downside risk to earnings as we enter 1Q21E amidst lower US LPG exports and subdued volumes from other export sources. Fleet growth is though expected to become negligible from 2021E, supporting rising fleet utilization into 2022E and beyond. We see our VLGC share index -30% by 1Q21E, but +144% by year end 2022E.
Capital allocation: We do limited changes to our optimal portfolio since our last Shipping Quarterly. We now allocate 50% towards Dry Bulk (50%), 8% towards Oil Tankers (0%), 12% towards LNG Carriers (11%), 0% towards VLGCs (18%) & 30% held in cash / balanced against short positions (21%). Our recommendations have outperformed the shipping market by 521% since 2014, returning 105%. We are still ranked #1 globally on shipping equity research by Bloomberg".
Se den fulde rapport her:
https://www.cleaves.no/post/shipping-quarterly-4q20-a-mixed-picture
"Dry Bulk: Our earlier outlined Base Case is playing out before our eyes, with strong Chinese demand for dry bulk as the economy is normalizing and authorities are adding stimuli. Chinese steel production has reached a new all-time-highs, and inventories of steel and iron ore have fallen. With Brazil exporting iron ore at all-time-high levels, our only near-term concern is a potential Chinese import ban on Australian coal. We expect seasonal factors could weigh on dry bulk in 1Q21E, but nevertheless see consecutive annual gains until at least 2023E amidst the lowest orderbook on record. The segment remains our top pick within shipping, and we forecast our share index +126% over the next year & +190% over two years.
Oil Tankers: The year has so far been in the spirit of the Greek god Janus, with oil supply far outpacing demand from January to April, before reversing the roles thereafter. As expected, oil tanker spot rates are now hovering around opex amidst a rout in oil supply concurrent with an oil inventory destocking cycle. We look towards 3Q21E for the cyclical trough and see significant improvements thereafter, supported by the lowest orderbook since 1996 and strong demand growth. Before then, we could see some short-lived gains during 4Q20E. We forecast our oil tanker share index +10% in 4Q20E -17% by 3Q21E and potentially +160% by 2024E
LNG Carriers: An active Hurricane season has impacted US LNG exports negatively in 3Q20, but rising natural gas prices at import destinations and contango in the natural gas future curves leave us optimistic towards 4Q20E. Thereafter, we expect LNG Carrier earnings to stay low amidst healthy fleet growth and limited demand growth until a potential super-cycle develops from 2024E.
LPG Carriers: VLGC earnings came in far above our forecast for 3Q20, mainly due to fleet inefficiencies tying up tonnage. We do however see downside risk to earnings as we enter 1Q21E amidst lower US LPG exports and subdued volumes from other export sources. Fleet growth is though expected to become negligible from 2021E, supporting rising fleet utilization into 2022E and beyond. We see our VLGC share index -30% by 1Q21E, but +144% by year end 2022E.
Capital allocation: We do limited changes to our optimal portfolio since our last Shipping Quarterly. We now allocate 50% towards Dry Bulk (50%), 8% towards Oil Tankers (0%), 12% towards LNG Carriers (11%), 0% towards VLGCs (18%) & 30% held in cash / balanced against short positions (21%). Our recommendations have outperformed the shipping market by 521% since 2014, returning 105%. We are still ranked #1 globally on shipping equity research by Bloomberg".
Se den fulde rapport her:
https://www.cleaves.no/post/shipping-quarterly-4q20-a-mixed-picture
