Cleaves opdatering oven på Q2 regnskab fra Avance Gas i dag:
"Avance Gas slightly underperformed top-line expectations for 2Q21, however, the company's 3Q21E guidance was positive and more than compensated for the 2Q divergence. With the company having the highest asset value elasticity among peers going into the expected cyclical peak in 2022E, Avance Gas remains our top pick within the LPG segment with a 53% upside to TP. We reiterate our BUY rating and, due to recent FX movements, raise our target price to N58 (from N55).
Quarterly review: Avance Gas reported TCE revenue of $31m, slightly below us and consensus at $33m. The miss was mainly attributable to a fleet utilization of 90% vs our 97% forecast, which can be broken down into 76 offhire days, mostly related to scrubber retrofitting (vs our 0 forecast), and 42 commercial waiting days (vs our 35 forecast). Apart from a higher-than-expected opex/d due to COVID-19 related issues (crewing, etc), cost items were in line with expectations. Thus, EPS of $0.02 fell short of our $0.07 forecast. As expected, a $0.02/sh dividend was declared for the quarter. The company also guided on 3Q21E contracting, having achieved $28k/d on a discharge-to-discharge basis for 77% of vessel days. This, paired with the fact that most of the fleet is trading US/FE at the time of writing, cause us to raise our 3Q21E net sales forecast by $7m to $32m.
Investment Case: With our VLGC share price expected to rise 68% over the next year in concert with rising earnings and asset prices, we maintain a BUY rating on the VLGC segment. With a 1y fwd NAV of N93/sh and the highest asset value elasticity among peers with the expected cyclical peak ahead, Avance Gas is our top pick within the LPG segment. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our target price to N58 (from N55), with the raise in target solely attributable to recent FX movements".
"Avance Gas slightly underperformed top-line expectations for 2Q21, however, the company's 3Q21E guidance was positive and more than compensated for the 2Q divergence. With the company having the highest asset value elasticity among peers going into the expected cyclical peak in 2022E, Avance Gas remains our top pick within the LPG segment with a 53% upside to TP. We reiterate our BUY rating and, due to recent FX movements, raise our target price to N58 (from N55).
Quarterly review: Avance Gas reported TCE revenue of $31m, slightly below us and consensus at $33m. The miss was mainly attributable to a fleet utilization of 90% vs our 97% forecast, which can be broken down into 76 offhire days, mostly related to scrubber retrofitting (vs our 0 forecast), and 42 commercial waiting days (vs our 35 forecast). Apart from a higher-than-expected opex/d due to COVID-19 related issues (crewing, etc), cost items were in line with expectations. Thus, EPS of $0.02 fell short of our $0.07 forecast. As expected, a $0.02/sh dividend was declared for the quarter. The company also guided on 3Q21E contracting, having achieved $28k/d on a discharge-to-discharge basis for 77% of vessel days. This, paired with the fact that most of the fleet is trading US/FE at the time of writing, cause us to raise our 3Q21E net sales forecast by $7m to $32m.
Investment Case: With our VLGC share price expected to rise 68% over the next year in concert with rising earnings and asset prices, we maintain a BUY rating on the VLGC segment. With a 1y fwd NAV of N93/sh and the highest asset value elasticity among peers with the expected cyclical peak ahead, Avance Gas is our top pick within the LPG segment. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our target price to N58 (from N55), with the raise in target solely attributable to recent FX movements".
