Medens vi venter på resultatet fra Talisman Energys boring St. Eduard bør vi kende denne anbefaling.
Meget er sat i forventninger og en del af en mulig rigtig god gasproduktion fra St-Eduard er derfor priset ind hos QEC. Gaspriser der ikke kunne holde sig over 4 USD her i aften er ikke så godt, men den ventede opdatering kan have potentialet til et større spring i aktiekursen, som det er set så ofte før i QEC.
Questerre Energy (QEC)
Price when published(CAD): 1.5
BUY High Risk
Bloomberg: QEC NO (rating unchanged)
Reuters: QEC.OL Target Price (CAD): 5.80
Sector: Energy Market cap (295): 1,784
Style: Growth Analyst: Thomas Aarrestad, Steffen Rødsjø
Important test results due shortly
Questerre will report Q2’09 results on Friday August 14 before the market opens. Initial results from the Utica shale test at the vertical St. Edouard #1 well are ready soon and may be released before the quarterly report
Q2’09 results expected down on lower production
We estimate cash flow from operations of CADm 0.5, down from CADm 1.1 in Q1’09. We expect only limited investments have been made in new production, resulting in an estimated production decline to 850 boe/day from 1,050 boe/day in Q1’09.
St. Edouard #1 well is an important potential trigger
Test results from the Utica shales in Quebec have been in the 300-900 mcf/day range this far, and these results have all been in the central or western part of the acreage. St. Edouard #1, where preliminary test results are expected early August, lies in the eastern part of the acreage. If results here are as strong as on the other locations, it could imply that the shale potential extends through almost all of the company’s acreage in Quebec (total net landholding is 336,000 acres). If all of the acreage is prospective for production of gas from the Utica shales, we estimate this has a value potential of more than NOK 50/share (based on long term gas price of USD 8/mcf).
Talisman committed to horizontal drilling this autumn
Questerre recently announced that the operator on the majority of the acreage in Quebec, Talisman Energy, has decided to drill at least two horizontal wells, starting this autumn, probably around October/November. These will be drilled adjacent to two of the four vertical wells drilled by Talisman to date. These wells will provide important information how much production rates can be increased in horizontal wells vs vertical wells.
Commerciality dependant on long term gas price level
While the resource potential of QEC’s shale gas acreage in Quebec is huge, the play has a break even gas price of USD ~3.5/mcf, only slightly less than the current market price of USD ~4/mcf. At our long term price assumption of USD 8/mcf, the value potential is more than NOK 50/share from Utica alone. We have a risked valuation of NOK 32 and a BUY recommendation on QEC.
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.
Meget er sat i forventninger og en del af en mulig rigtig god gasproduktion fra St-Eduard er derfor priset ind hos QEC. Gaspriser der ikke kunne holde sig over 4 USD her i aften er ikke så godt, men den ventede opdatering kan have potentialet til et større spring i aktiekursen, som det er set så ofte før i QEC.
Questerre Energy (QEC)
Price when published(CAD): 1.5
BUY High Risk
Bloomberg: QEC NO (rating unchanged)
Reuters: QEC.OL Target Price (CAD): 5.80
Sector: Energy Market cap (295): 1,784
Style: Growth Analyst: Thomas Aarrestad, Steffen Rødsjø
Important test results due shortly
Questerre will report Q2’09 results on Friday August 14 before the market opens. Initial results from the Utica shale test at the vertical St. Edouard #1 well are ready soon and may be released before the quarterly report
Q2’09 results expected down on lower production
We estimate cash flow from operations of CADm 0.5, down from CADm 1.1 in Q1’09. We expect only limited investments have been made in new production, resulting in an estimated production decline to 850 boe/day from 1,050 boe/day in Q1’09.
St. Edouard #1 well is an important potential trigger
Test results from the Utica shales in Quebec have been in the 300-900 mcf/day range this far, and these results have all been in the central or western part of the acreage. St. Edouard #1, where preliminary test results are expected early August, lies in the eastern part of the acreage. If results here are as strong as on the other locations, it could imply that the shale potential extends through almost all of the company’s acreage in Quebec (total net landholding is 336,000 acres). If all of the acreage is prospective for production of gas from the Utica shales, we estimate this has a value potential of more than NOK 50/share (based on long term gas price of USD 8/mcf).
Talisman committed to horizontal drilling this autumn
Questerre recently announced that the operator on the majority of the acreage in Quebec, Talisman Energy, has decided to drill at least two horizontal wells, starting this autumn, probably around October/November. These will be drilled adjacent to two of the four vertical wells drilled by Talisman to date. These wells will provide important information how much production rates can be increased in horizontal wells vs vertical wells.
Commerciality dependant on long term gas price level
While the resource potential of QEC’s shale gas acreage in Quebec is huge, the play has a break even gas price of USD ~3.5/mcf, only slightly less than the current market price of USD ~4/mcf. At our long term price assumption of USD 8/mcf, the value potential is more than NOK 50/share from Utica alone. We have a risked valuation of NOK 32 and a BUY recommendation on QEC.
The recommendation was not presented to the issuer before dissemination.
10/8 2009 10:19 collersteen 0
16532 Og åbning omkring 9. Det ser godt ud.
Golden cross nærmer sig også med hastige skridt.
Dybden lige nu:
MM # Bid Size Bid Ask Ask Size MM #
1 4000 9.29 9.30 34000 3
1 1000 9.24 9.34 6000 2
1 5000 9.23 9.44 5000 1
2 3000 9.22 9.45 10000 1
2 6000 9.21 9.49 10000 1
Golden cross nærmer sig også med hastige skridt.
Dybden lige nu:
MM # Bid Size Bid Ask Ask Size MM #
1 4000 9.29 9.30 34000 3
1 1000 9.24 9.34 6000 2
1 5000 9.23 9.44 5000 1
2 3000 9.22 9.45 10000 1
2 6000 9.21 9.49 10000 1
10/8 2009 18:09 Mixd 016548 Som sådan synes jeg det er lidt uhyggeligt hvordan sådan en artikel fra Hegnar kan have indflydelse på aktiekursen. Ikke fordi artiklen overhausser (som den gør), men det er stadig væk en - skal vi kalde det - løs artikel fra en journalist uden at en trigger er udløst.
v.h.
v.h.
12/8 2009 14:04 collersteen 016670 Så kom der regnskab fra TSU.
Der står lidt om resultaterne i Beaver River..... og også at QEC har 4mio CAD tilgode hos TSU.
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=243184
During the period ending June 30, 2009, there was only one well in production: A5 well in Beaver River, Canada. Total production revenue for the period ended June 30, 2009 was $1,077,140 (2008 - $2,362,428). Total gas production during the quarter was 167 MMcf of which 50% (84 MMcf) represents the Company’s share. Natural gas production in 2009 is significantly lower than 2008 (50% - 262 MMcf) due to the A2 and A7 wells not producing. The A2 and A7 wells were shut-in due to the higher pressure production from A5. Decline in natural gas revenue from 2008 is also due to falling natural gas prices during 2009. Market prices per gigajoule of natural gas in 2008 were between $6.94 and $10.77 compared to $2.76 and $5.40 during 2009.
Production continued from well D-a64-K (A5) at a rate of approximately 5mmcf/d. Wells A-73-K (A2) and A-93-K (A7) were shut in due to the higher pressure production from A5. The Company’s technical team is assessing the future potential of the various suspended and producing wells in the field and will evaluate its options for continuing the appraisal of the thick shale intervals present at Beaver River. The Company is in discussions with potential farm in partners who will finance the appraisal operations in return for an interest in the field. As at June 30, 2009, the Company owes Questerre Beaver River Inc. $3,960,630 in operating debt (2008 - $1,405,731) which includes $838,579 in interest charges (2008 - $Nil). Questerre did not charge the Company interest on amounts outstanding during the period ended June 30, 2008.
Subsequent to the period ending June 30, 2009, the Company paid $500,000 to Questerre to reduce its operating debt and agreed to a second payment of $500,000 at the end of October 2009.
Der står lidt om resultaterne i Beaver River..... og også at QEC har 4mio CAD tilgode hos TSU.
http://www.newsweb.no/newsweb/search.do?messageId=243184
During the period ending June 30, 2009, there was only one well in production: A5 well in Beaver River, Canada. Total production revenue for the period ended June 30, 2009 was $1,077,140 (2008 - $2,362,428). Total gas production during the quarter was 167 MMcf of which 50% (84 MMcf) represents the Company’s share. Natural gas production in 2009 is significantly lower than 2008 (50% - 262 MMcf) due to the A2 and A7 wells not producing. The A2 and A7 wells were shut-in due to the higher pressure production from A5. Decline in natural gas revenue from 2008 is also due to falling natural gas prices during 2009. Market prices per gigajoule of natural gas in 2008 were between $6.94 and $10.77 compared to $2.76 and $5.40 during 2009.
Production continued from well D-a64-K (A5) at a rate of approximately 5mmcf/d. Wells A-73-K (A2) and A-93-K (A7) were shut in due to the higher pressure production from A5. The Company’s technical team is assessing the future potential of the various suspended and producing wells in the field and will evaluate its options for continuing the appraisal of the thick shale intervals present at Beaver River. The Company is in discussions with potential farm in partners who will finance the appraisal operations in return for an interest in the field. As at June 30, 2009, the Company owes Questerre Beaver River Inc. $3,960,630 in operating debt (2008 - $1,405,731) which includes $838,579 in interest charges (2008 - $Nil). Questerre did not charge the Company interest on amounts outstanding during the period ended June 30, 2008.
Subsequent to the period ending June 30, 2009, the Company paid $500,000 to Questerre to reduce its operating debt and agreed to a second payment of $500,000 at the end of October 2009.
