Industrial output up 12.3% in August
China's economic recovery gained more momentum in August as industrial output expanded 12.3% year-on-year in the month, speeding up from 10.8% in July and 10.7% in June, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Fixed asset investments up 33% in Jan-Aug
Beijing's stimulating measures continued to bolster fixed asset investment up 33% in January-August, flat with that in January-July.
Bank lending at RMB 410bn in August
The central bank People's Bank of China said new bank lending stood at RMB 410bn in August. Although much lower than an average of over RMB 1 trln per month in H1, loan growth was larger than RMB 356bn in July and RMB 272bn in August 2008, providing funding sources to investments.
Retail sales up 15.4% in August
The NBS figures showed that retail sales rose 15.4% year-on-year in August, slightly faster than 15.2% in July, reflecting that consumption continued to support the recovery.
Exports down 23%, import down 17% in August
But export remained weak, down 23% to USD 104bn, and import down 17% to USD 88bn in August, according to the China Customs.
Deflation -1.2%, producer price index -7.9% in August
Meanwhile, deflation lingers but prices showed signs of bottoming. The NBS said consumer price index fell 1.2% year-on-year in August, a smaller drop than minus 1.8% in July. The producer price index tumbled 7.9% in August, modestly better than -8.2% in July.
Den fortsat høje vækst i anlægsinvesteringerne og det voldsomme niveau for bankudlån vil, alt andet lige, på sigt bane vejen for en højere indenlandsk efterspørgsel i Kina. I hvor høj grad det vil smitte af på Kinas import, strides økonomerne om. Jo flere udenlandske mastodonter, der flytter til Kina for at service nærmarkedet (og det gør de efterhånden alle), jo mindre vil en øget indenlandsk efterspørgsel gavne udenlandske eksportører til Kina.
En anden ubekendt faktor er kinesernes tilbøjelighed til at spare op. Trods høje stigninger i detailsalget, så er kinesernes opsparingskvote meget høj - stik modsat den amerikanske forbruger.