0
kina - eksport +19.5%
det viser at eksporten fra kina stort set ikke er berørt og julehandelen vil jo støtte eksporten yderligere de næste uger medens panikken rundt omkring er på sit højeste
importen stiger relativt langsommere, men stadig mere end 15% og det skyldes jo primært i faldende importpriser på energi og råvarer så stigningstakten i mængdeimporten er også stort set uændret og det er den, der trækker boomet i resten af asien og en række råvareproducerende lande rundt omkring i verden
iøvrigt er det interessant at mange har peget på en faldende dollar som et udtryk for at mængderne ikke er steget så meget fordi de måles i dollar, men nu er dollaren jo steget, så må man da kunne sige det modsatte
detailsalget steg 22% så kina ser da bestemt ud til at fortsætte væksten
man måler detailsalget i kina i løbende priser
detailsalget steg 23.5% i september og 16.1% sidste år, men inflationen er faldet til 4% så realstigningen i detailsalget er stigende
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/081111/1/4k736.html
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/081112/1/4k7no.htm
det viser at eksporten fra kina stort set ikke er berørt og julehandelen vil jo støtte eksporten yderligere de næste uger medens panikken rundt omkring er på sit højeste
importen stiger relativt langsommere, men stadig mere end 15% og det skyldes jo primært i faldende importpriser på energi og råvarer så stigningstakten i mængdeimporten er også stort set uændret og det er den, der trækker boomet i resten af asien og en række råvareproducerende lande rundt omkring i verden
iøvrigt er det interessant at mange har peget på en faldende dollar som et udtryk for at mængderne ikke er steget så meget fordi de måles i dollar, men nu er dollaren jo steget, så må man da kunne sige det modsatte
detailsalget steg 22% så kina ser da bestemt ud til at fortsætte væksten
man måler detailsalget i kina i løbende priser
detailsalget steg 23.5% i september og 16.1% sidste år, men inflationen er faldet til 4% så realstigningen i detailsalget er stigende
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/081111/1/4k736.html
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/081112/1/4k7no.htm
12/11 2008 10:40 le 0189 man skal huske at jernmalm udgør ca. 50% af bulkskibenes fragt grundlag
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK15801020081112?rpc=611
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINPEK15801020081112?rpc=611
12/11 2008 11:33 le 0191 kina er netop blevet verdensøkonomiens navle
mange sektorer er meget større end i usa
og samlet set er kina så tæt på at overhale usa som verdens største økonomiske størrelse, at det
sker allerede inden for de næste par år hvis det ikke allerede er sket
pga en undervurderet valuta og det vanskelige i at beregne det købekraftskorrigerede BNP
er der alt for mange der bruger det officielle BNP, der er alt for lavt og dermed misvisende
man skal kigge på størrelsen af de enkelte sektorer målt i mængder
og så bl.a. de nævnte data for eksport og import, der netop godt kan måles i dollar, men også der er mængderne jo relativt større end samme dollar værdi eksporteret fra usa eller europa pga de lave lønomkostninger
og usa har jo lige som europa ikke mindst danmark en meget stor offentlig sektor med en stor andel af BNP til sundhed, ældrepleje, skoler, uddannelse, børnehaver og generel meget hjælp til folk der ikke kan klare sig i form af bistand og andre former for sociale ydelser og al det bidrager ikke til den konjunkturskabende økonomi og burde trækkes fra ved sammenligninger målt på BNP pg så er kina allerede meget større end usa'
bortset fra japan har asien en relativt ung befolkning og derfor ikke det store problem med at forsørge og pleje alle de mange ældre, der efterhånden bliver over 80 år alle sammen og skal på sygehuset flere gange om året
når man sammenholder væksten i kina med data for boligbyggeriet i japan, hvor påbegyndt boligbyggeri er steget 55% de sidste måneder og skaber et opsving i uapan
og data fra f.ex. bilsalget i indonesien, der steg 74% og andre informationer fra asien
kan man allerede nu konkludere at asien ikke er ramt særlig meget af den globale krise på konjunkturen
og da asien samlet set er større end usa og europa tilsammen
kan asien sagtens trække den globale vækst op og også trække usa op igen efterhånden som
rentesænkningerne og pakkerne i usa slår igennem sammen med lavere inflation og lavere priser på benzin, fødevarer mm
mange sektorer er meget større end i usa
og samlet set er kina så tæt på at overhale usa som verdens største økonomiske størrelse, at det
sker allerede inden for de næste par år hvis det ikke allerede er sket
pga en undervurderet valuta og det vanskelige i at beregne det købekraftskorrigerede BNP
er der alt for mange der bruger det officielle BNP, der er alt for lavt og dermed misvisende
man skal kigge på størrelsen af de enkelte sektorer målt i mængder
og så bl.a. de nævnte data for eksport og import, der netop godt kan måles i dollar, men også der er mængderne jo relativt større end samme dollar værdi eksporteret fra usa eller europa pga de lave lønomkostninger
og usa har jo lige som europa ikke mindst danmark en meget stor offentlig sektor med en stor andel af BNP til sundhed, ældrepleje, skoler, uddannelse, børnehaver og generel meget hjælp til folk der ikke kan klare sig i form af bistand og andre former for sociale ydelser og al det bidrager ikke til den konjunkturskabende økonomi og burde trækkes fra ved sammenligninger målt på BNP pg så er kina allerede meget større end usa'
bortset fra japan har asien en relativt ung befolkning og derfor ikke det store problem med at forsørge og pleje alle de mange ældre, der efterhånden bliver over 80 år alle sammen og skal på sygehuset flere gange om året
når man sammenholder væksten i kina med data for boligbyggeriet i japan, hvor påbegyndt boligbyggeri er steget 55% de sidste måneder og skaber et opsving i uapan
og data fra f.ex. bilsalget i indonesien, der steg 74% og andre informationer fra asien
kan man allerede nu konkludere at asien ikke er ramt særlig meget af den globale krise på konjunkturen
og da asien samlet set er større end usa og europa tilsammen
kan asien sagtens trække den globale vækst op og også trække usa op igen efterhånden som
rentesænkningerne og pakkerne i usa slår igennem sammen med lavere inflation og lavere priser på benzin, fødevarer mm
13/11 2008 10:09 le 0218 China's October crude run rate rose the fastest on-year since July to 7.02 million barrels per day (bpd), as refiners move to capture improving margins on crude's tumble despite heavy product stockpiles.
The stronger growth figures will allay some fears that China's demand has started to succumb to the impact of the global economic rout. So far, healthy demand from China has provided some support in the face of crumbling global oil consumption.
Chinese refineries processed 29.79 million tonnes of crude last month, a 7.0 percent increase from a year ago, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The rate rose in line with a significant growth in crude imports last month.
This compared with 6.87 million bpd in September, which represented a 3.7 percent growth from the year-ago period.
"The good margins and some refineries coming onstream are probably good reasons for them to run a little higher instead of importing products," said Kang Wu, a senior fellow at Honolulu-based think tank East-West Center.
Analysts were not expecting such strong run rates in October since the two state-owned giants, Sinopec (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), face record volumes of motor fuel in their tanks after months of heavy imports ahead of the Olympics.
But with crude CLc1 tumbling towards $55 from the peak above $147 hit in July, refining margins have greatly improved and made processing more oil an attractive option, but that could also likely dampen product imports further.
The duopoly now enjoy one of the highest margins in the world, as Beijing has so far stuck with the pump rates it hiked by around 18 percent in June, despite crude's plunge and growing expectation that the government would soon cut fuel prices for the first time in almost two years.
"China also has some refineries coming onstream. They need crude, doesn't matter what the utilisation rates are," Wu said.
PetroChina's 200,000-bpd Lanzhou refinery, the largest oil plant in western China, revved up crude runs last month after an overhaul of a crude unit, while the company's largest refinery at Dalian also ramped up October rates by a quarter from September.
For actual and forecast crude run rates from September to November for China's 12 major refineries, please click [ID:nPEK41322] and [ID:nPEK62751]
Crude throughput in the first 10 months increased 5.6 percent to 287.7 million tonnes, while crude production for the same period gained 2.2 percent from a year ago to 158.25 million tonnes, Thursday's official statistics showed.
In line with the higher refinery run rates, crude imports last month rose nearly 30 percent from a year ago to 16.16 million tonnes, or 3.81 million bpd, the third-highest daily rate on record, official data showed on Tuesday. [ID:nPEK163179]
But October imports of refined oil products fell to the lowest so far this year at 2.02 million tonnes due to brimming stockpiles and the heavier crude processing, hitting refiners as far off as Europe that supply diesel to China.
"We believe there is a significant risk of a more rapid slowdown in China's appetite for diesel than many expect and this, in our view, is a key risk to European refining earnings in 2009," Neil McMahon, analyst at London-based Bernstein Research, said in a research report earlier this week.
China is expected to skip diesel imports altogether in November, a Reuters survey showed. [ID:nSP322027]
While the higher crude run rates may help lift sentiment on China's fuel consumption, analysts caution that real demand may not really pick up until Beijing cuts fuel prices.
"Real demand itself is probably flat year on year. October seems to be particularly slow... when people have expectations of lower (pump) prices, they could be holding back," Wu said.
"(The crude run rates) doesn't reflect so much demand but more economics. Also, the higher processing could only be because of lower imports," he said. (Editing by Ramthan Hussain)
The stronger growth figures will allay some fears that China's demand has started to succumb to the impact of the global economic rout. So far, healthy demand from China has provided some support in the face of crumbling global oil consumption.
Chinese refineries processed 29.79 million tonnes of crude last month, a 7.0 percent increase from a year ago, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday. The rate rose in line with a significant growth in crude imports last month.
This compared with 6.87 million bpd in September, which represented a 3.7 percent growth from the year-ago period.
"The good margins and some refineries coming onstream are probably good reasons for them to run a little higher instead of importing products," said Kang Wu, a senior fellow at Honolulu-based think tank East-West Center.
Analysts were not expecting such strong run rates in October since the two state-owned giants, Sinopec (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), face record volumes of motor fuel in their tanks after months of heavy imports ahead of the Olympics.
But with crude CLc1 tumbling towards $55 from the peak above $147 hit in July, refining margins have greatly improved and made processing more oil an attractive option, but that could also likely dampen product imports further.
The duopoly now enjoy one of the highest margins in the world, as Beijing has so far stuck with the pump rates it hiked by around 18 percent in June, despite crude's plunge and growing expectation that the government would soon cut fuel prices for the first time in almost two years.
"China also has some refineries coming onstream. They need crude, doesn't matter what the utilisation rates are," Wu said.
PetroChina's 200,000-bpd Lanzhou refinery, the largest oil plant in western China, revved up crude runs last month after an overhaul of a crude unit, while the company's largest refinery at Dalian also ramped up October rates by a quarter from September.
For actual and forecast crude run rates from September to November for China's 12 major refineries, please click [ID:nPEK41322] and [ID:nPEK62751]
Crude throughput in the first 10 months increased 5.6 percent to 287.7 million tonnes, while crude production for the same period gained 2.2 percent from a year ago to 158.25 million tonnes, Thursday's official statistics showed.
In line with the higher refinery run rates, crude imports last month rose nearly 30 percent from a year ago to 16.16 million tonnes, or 3.81 million bpd, the third-highest daily rate on record, official data showed on Tuesday. [ID:nPEK163179]
But October imports of refined oil products fell to the lowest so far this year at 2.02 million tonnes due to brimming stockpiles and the heavier crude processing, hitting refiners as far off as Europe that supply diesel to China.
"We believe there is a significant risk of a more rapid slowdown in China's appetite for diesel than many expect and this, in our view, is a key risk to European refining earnings in 2009," Neil McMahon, analyst at London-based Bernstein Research, said in a research report earlier this week.
China is expected to skip diesel imports altogether in November, a Reuters survey showed. [ID:nSP322027]
While the higher crude run rates may help lift sentiment on China's fuel consumption, analysts caution that real demand may not really pick up until Beijing cuts fuel prices.
"Real demand itself is probably flat year on year. October seems to be particularly slow... when people have expectations of lower (pump) prices, they could be holding back," Wu said.
"(The crude run rates) doesn't reflect so much demand but more economics. Also, the higher processing could only be because of lower imports," he said. (Editing by Ramthan Hussain)
13/11 2008 11:35 le 0224 China's industrial output slows in October: govt
China's industrial output growth slipped into single digits last month, the government said Thursday, as Premier Wen Jiabao warned the impact of the global crisis was "much worse" than expected.
Industrial output grew 8.2 percent in October from the same month a year ago, compared with 11.4 percent in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The industrial output growth figures reflect industrial operations are slowing down, and the slowdown is quite fast," said Lian Ping, a Shanghai-based economist with Bank of Communications.
"There are many reasons for this. The international financial crisis is certainly one of those factors," he said.
As the industrial figures came out, the statistics bureau's newspaper quoted Premier Wen as making one of the most sombre assessments yet of the effect of the global financial meltdown on the world's fourth-largest economy.
"The impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy is much worse than many had expected," the bureau's director, Ma Jiantang, quoted Wen as saying in the China Information News.
Reflecting just how much has changed over the past year, Chinese industrial output increased 17.9 percent in October 2007, from a year earlier.
Several key product categories last month either grew by single digits or declined compared with a year earlier, statistics from the bureau showed.
For example, China produced 730,000 vehicles in October, a drop of 0.7 percent from a year earlier, and the production of crude steel was down 17.0 percent over the same period, the bureau said.
Exports of industrial products were up by just 6.8 percent from October 2007, reflecting the slowdown in the world economy.
China initially said the global financial crisis would not cause too much harm to its economy, but in recent days the signals from Beijing have changed markedly.
On Sunday, the government announced a spending package worth four trillion yuan (590 billion dollars) aimed at lifting economic growth, although it was unclear how much was actually new spending.
In the first 10 months of the year, industrial output increased 14.4 percent from the same period in 2007, according to the bureau.
China's industrial output growth slipped into single digits last month, the government said Thursday, as Premier Wen Jiabao warned the impact of the global crisis was "much worse" than expected.
Industrial output grew 8.2 percent in October from the same month a year ago, compared with 11.4 percent in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The industrial output growth figures reflect industrial operations are slowing down, and the slowdown is quite fast," said Lian Ping, a Shanghai-based economist with Bank of Communications.
"There are many reasons for this. The international financial crisis is certainly one of those factors," he said.
As the industrial figures came out, the statistics bureau's newspaper quoted Premier Wen as making one of the most sombre assessments yet of the effect of the global financial meltdown on the world's fourth-largest economy.
"The impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy is much worse than many had expected," the bureau's director, Ma Jiantang, quoted Wen as saying in the China Information News.
Reflecting just how much has changed over the past year, Chinese industrial output increased 17.9 percent in October 2007, from a year earlier.
Several key product categories last month either grew by single digits or declined compared with a year earlier, statistics from the bureau showed.
For example, China produced 730,000 vehicles in October, a drop of 0.7 percent from a year earlier, and the production of crude steel was down 17.0 percent over the same period, the bureau said.
Exports of industrial products were up by just 6.8 percent from October 2007, reflecting the slowdown in the world economy.
China initially said the global financial crisis would not cause too much harm to its economy, but in recent days the signals from Beijing have changed markedly.
On Sunday, the government announced a spending package worth four trillion yuan (590 billion dollars) aimed at lifting economic growth, although it was unclear how much was actually new spending.
In the first 10 months of the year, industrial output increased 14.4 percent from the same period in 2007, according to the bureau.
