Genmab

	26/2 11:17 af E L	and similar for the high guidance $5.600.000.000 5.805.000.000 dkk 5.300.000.000 diff 505.000.000
	26/2 11:16 af E L	2021 guidance $5.200.000.000 = dkk5.325.000.000 compared to dkk 4.900.000.000 guided , gives a difference of dkk 425.000.000
	26/2 11:15 af E L	@gentogen, i used the actual Genmab guidance for a similar excercise, all at fx 6
	26/2 11:15 af JørgenVarnæs	Also it seems royalties are calculated on a yearly basis but paid on a quarterly basis - then we must have some sort of regulation somewhere
	26/2 11:15 af E L	breaking the short term down-trend line from friday. see if that holds now .
	26/2 11:14 af E L	yeah it took out the stops below 2066, first bottom attempt
	26/2 11:13 af JørgenVarnæs	...and look what’s happening in the market right now...
	26/2 11:12 af JørgenVarnæs	And with the USDDKK being much lower in H2 is seems right my nos are lower than yours
	26/2 11:11 af JørgenVarnæs	With the Q2 once-in-a-lifetime-every-year adjustment we could be talking about the same nos
	26/2 11:10 af E L	hey that is not so bad ;-) Total
	26/2 11:10 af E L	Royalties 2020: $685.500.000
	26/2 11:09 af E L	$750.000.000 12% $90.000.000 $1.500.000.000 13% $97.500.000 $2.000.000.000 16% $80.000.000 $3.000.000.000 18% $180.000.000 $4.190.000.000 20% $238.000.000
	26/2 11:09 af E L	this may paste messy, but i'll try:
	26/2 11:08 af E L	are you calculating the USD back from the DKK amounts you had?
	26/2 11:08 af JørgenVarnæs	A yearly royalty rate of 16,12%
	26/2 11:07 af JørgenVarnæs	EL - yes
	26/2 11:06 af JørgenVarnæs	But i’m a little uncertain about these nos because the Q4 royalty in my calcs is 19,4% (based on usddkk 6,24 and quarterly royalty of dkk 1521m
	26/2 11:06 af E L	for 2020 $4.190?
	26/2 11:04 af JørgenVarnæs	With that i get a yearly USD royalty of usd 675,5m
	26/2 11:03 af gentogen	Til alm info var min primitive udregning forleden baseret på midtpunktet af 2021 dara salgsestimat = 32.4M (5.4US) og ved at estimere 55% FASPRO fik jeg 17.8M DK, hvoraf 5% så er 890MIO hvoraf Genmabs andel på450mio er 50%. Jeg ved ikke, om man kan regne sådan, men det var et slag på tasken
	26/2 10:58 af JørgenVarnæs	Usddkk Q1 6,77, Q2 6,78, Q3 6,37 and Q4 6,24 giving a yearly usddkk rate of 6,54
	26/2 10:57 af JørgenVarnæs	First I found the USDDKK rates. I calculated the quarterly FX rate as simple average of the daily averages and i got:
	26/2 10:57 af JørgenVarnæs	Ok - i’ve been diddling with the spreadsheet
	26/2 10:50 af StockBull	and MOR still got high PE of 95 versus sgen 47 and genmab 29.7 all info from tradingview. Strange

	26/2 10:44 af E L	ECB’s Schnabel: A Rise In Real Long-Term Rates At The Early Stages Of The Recovery May Withdraw Vital Policy Support Too Early And Too Abruptly. ECB May Need To Add Support If Yields Hurt Growth. ECB Still Has 'Some Room' To Cut Interest Rates.
	26/2 10:41 af StockBull	Surely interesting with development of MOR, REGN, SGEN similar to Genmab but I would say Genmab have better balance sheet and in that way special with a big tank of money
	26/2 10:30 af E L	Genmab investors should always feel special :-D
	26/2 10:30 af JørgenVarnæs	..and have a look at those comps I mentioned - we don’t have a reason to feel special
	26/2 10:29 af JørgenVarnæs	Hang on - ill dive into the spreadsheet with the quarterly nos
	26/2 10:26 af E L	fair enough, but many analysts dropped their targets more then i would have expected, trying to understand
	26/2 10:24 af E L	Pagano answer was useless
	26/2 10:24 af E L	@JV that is the % i would like to replicate. Genmab did not confirm that %
	26/2 10:24 af JørgenVarnæs	Have a look at MOR, REGN, SGEN - they have had similar developments YTD
	26/2 10:24 af E L	But say it would be 4 times (assuming only 1 full quarter was Faspro) we'll get to ~6dkk per share, say for 10 years, forget NPV, so say dkk60 dkk per share effect?
	26/2 10:23 af Bulder	OK
	26/2 10:22 af E L	@Bulder I think the uncertanty /panick about this has not helped the stock this week, so i am trying to quantify it, and show, like you do ;-) , that it isn't worth dropping the market cap with a few billion $$
	26/2 10:21 af JørgenVarnæs	in the WebCast didn’t we find out the GEN part of Halo royalty is as high as 2 - 2,5 pct points?
	26/2 10:20 af JørgenVarnæs	Ok I guess there are a lot of FX unknowns here. How are RoW royalties treated? Are royalties calculated on a daily basis or when payment is made quarterly (im guessing)
	26/2 10:18 af Bulder	But does it matter. DKK 105m is 1,60 per share
	26/2 10:15 af E L	so, the fx rate matters and we have to make an assumption for the % sales that are Faspro for 2020, so it is difficult to get it right
	26/2 10:15 af E L	So, if i assume an fx rate of 6.6, i get dkk4.524, so a difference due to Halo of ~dkk105m
	26/2 10:13 af E L	yes, 4419. I calculate $685.5m according to the tiers for $4190 sales
	26/2 10:11 af JørgenVarnæs	I can only see the DKK
	26/2 10:11 af StockBull	(link) big picture genmab trend. som det kan ses er RSI ved at være på niveau som da corona krakket var i bung marts 2020
	26/2 10:10 af JørgenVarnæs	Do they mention the royalty amount in usd?
	26/2 10:09 af E L	offcourse not, i got that, just telling you what i am trying to do
	26/2 10:06 af E L	JV p64 annual report
	26/2 10:04 af E L	well that is the part that i am trying to calculate offcourse...
	26/2 10:00 af JørgenVarnæs	I can’t find the USD royalty in the accounts - have you seen it anywhere?
	26/2 09:51 af E L	bund futures actually trying to make a nice reversal this morning, hit their lower trendline exactly and bounced.