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8/11 22:07 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Talos Energy Stock Getting Very Oversold (link)
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13/11 07:42 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Stor usikkerhed om olieprisen i 2024 - Kan ende mellem 55 og 155 dollar (link)
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18/11 06:50 af ProInvestorNEWS |
BW ENERGY: ABG kutter kursmålet til NOK 27 (29), gjentar hold. DNB kutter til NOK 34 (36), gjentar kjøp. SEB kutter til NOK 33 (34), gjentar kjøp.
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18/11 06:51 af ProInvestorNEWS |
PANORO ENERGY: ABG kutter kursmålet til NOK 36 (40), gjentar kjøp.
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3/12 09:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
XOM, COP, or SLB: Which "Strong Buy" Oil Stock has the Highest Upside Potential? (link)
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6/12 07:04 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Putin på besøg i Emiraterne og Saudi-Arabien: Bruger sjælden rejse til at cementere partnerskab om olie
Den russiske præsident, Vladimir Putin, besøger De Forenede Arabiske Emirater og Saudi-Arabien i denne uge, og bruger dermed en sjælden rejse ud af Rusland til at styrke styrke partnerskaber med vigtige olieproducenter, skriver Bloomberg
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23/12 07:58 af ProInvestorNEWS |
The energy sector is about to enter 2024 as the most beaten down, oversold, unloved, and under-owned sector in the stock market. While that’s bad news for 2023 E&P returns, it’s not so bad for the year-ahead outlook. We expect positive returns for the energy sector overall, with the picks discussed below being our favorite ways to play it.
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23/12 07:59 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Oil Market Considerations
Macro conditions will influence the outlook for E&Ps, so we’ll first review the important macro considerations to provide background for the reasoning behind our picks.
For 2024, the oil market supply and demand outlook is unusually binary. Since our market balances point to a 500,000 barrel per day supply deficit during the year, demand factors could either tip the balance into larger inventory draws or push the market into inventory builds.
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23/12 07:59 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Certain known bearish factors complicate matters. For instance, if the U.S. or China enters a recession, demand could weaken to the point at which Saudi Arabia can’t realistically support the market through production cuts. In that scenario, oil prices would have to do the job of balancing the market.
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23/12 07:59 af ProInvestorNEWS |
If WTI were to fall into the mid-$60s per barrel range or below and is sustained at those levels, North American E&Ps will run cash flow deficits. E&P stocks would get clobbered, with the more heavily indebted among them faring the worst.
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23/12 08:00 af ProInvestorNEWS |
’m not an expert in forecasting the macro economy, but I’ll assign a 20% probability to this worst-case outcome.
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23/12 08:00 af ProInvestorNEWS |
In the event demand performs as consensus expects—increasing by around 1 million barrels per day (bpd)— OPEC+ cuts will support oil prices. We would expect WTI to average in the low-to-mid $80s per barrel, which would be supportive for E&Ps and their stocks.
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23/12 08:00 af ProInvestorNEWS |
The more indebted companies would generate enough free cash flow to pay down debt, and several would reach their net debt targets. E&P stocks would perform very well in this environment, particularly given the depressed levels at which they entered the year.
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23/12 08:01 af ProInvestorNEWS |
’ll assign a 60% probability to this consensus scenario:
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23/12 08:01 af ProInvestorNEWS |
The main known risk in this scenario is what the oil market outlook for 2025 will look like at year-end. Will the 1 million bpd of demand growth in 2024 be enough to support a bullish outlook for 2025? It’s too early to tell, but it could be bearish if the market begins to expect inventory builds in 2025. In any case, it’ll be an important consideration for how E&P stocks perform throughout 2024.
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23/12 08:01 af ProInvestorNEWS |
If, on the other hand, demand outperforms, we’re looking at WTI trading at $90 per barrel or above and 100%-plus returns for many Canadian E&P stocks. This scenario could occur if the Fed cuts as many expect and if the U.S. and China avoid recessions. It would entail an increase in demand of more than 1.5 million bpd. I’ll assign a 20% probability to this scenario.
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23/12 08:01 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Capital Flow Considerations
Another important macro factor for the year-ahead outlook for E&Ps pertains to capital flows. How large fund managers react to events as they unfold and how they approach E&Ps is anyone’s guess. But what’s clear at the moment is that money managers are reluctant to allocate to energy.
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23/12 08:02 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Energy specialists have been all but eliminated from the field, leaving generalists to control the bulk of capital flows into E&P stocks. Generalists will want to see sustained higher prices. They’ll begin allocating to larger names. Only when they’re comfortable with those will they allocate to smaller names.
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23/12 08:02 af ProInvestorNEWS |
For this reason, we want to be positioned in companies that are big enough to benefit from the initial move into larger-cap names. This isn’t to say that small caps aren’t particularly attractive right now—perhaps even more so than large caps—but we’re only looking out a year, so capital flows will be more relevant to performance.
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23/12 08:02 af ProInvestorNEWS |
What will be interesting is the extent to which U.S. generalists recognize that U.S. shale growth is set to top out. At the moment, they’re back into the “shale is growing to the sky” camp, which is holding down both oil prices and E&P stocks.
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23/12 08:02 af ProInvestorNEWS |
We expect U.S. shale growth to top out in 2025 and plateau thereafter. If we’re right, investors should begin to get a whiff of this outcome in mid-to-late 2024. Assuming large generalist investors appreciate the ramifications of this development—namely, that global production growth will be harder to come by—they’re likely to seek out high-quality, long-lived assets in investor-friendly nations with at least a well-functioning legal system
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23/12 08:03 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Canada is the natural choice here. Canadian production features all these desirable attributes, plus pockets of production growth. A slight drawback for U.S. investors is the 15% withholding tax on dividends, but many Canadian E&Ps are choosing to repurchase shares instead of increasing dividends. Moreover, large U.S. shareholders will be more likely to push them in the share repurchase direction, as well.
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23/12 08:03 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Energy investors should position themselves in Canadian E&Ps, whether they’re buying for 2024 or longer, and whether they buy our favorites or something else.
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23/12 08:04 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Kilde: HFI Research
Dec 23
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27/12 12:40 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
3 Brilliant Energy Stocks That Could Deliver High-Octane Returns in 2024 (link)
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27/12 20:01 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Crude Oil Falls on Technical Selling and Energy Demand Concerns (link)
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29/12 09:35 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Expect Volatility to Continue for Oil in 2024 (link)
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2/1 08:39 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Iran sender fregatt til Rødehavet: Sterk oppgang i oljeprisen
Det er bred oppgang i oljeprisen tirsdag, etter at Iran annonserte på mandag at de sender en fregatt til Rødehavet. (link)
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2/1 13:40 af ProInvestorNEWS |
EQUINOR: Bernstein kutter kursmålet til NOK 400 (420), gjentar outperform.
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2/1 13:40 af ProInvestorNEWS |
OLJEPRIS 2024: Finansavisen spør en del aktører i oljemarkedet om deres estimat på gjennomsnittlig Brent oljepris i 2024:
Herbjørn Hansson, CEO Nordic American Tankers: USD 20-30.
Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, SB1M: USD 80.
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2/1 13:40 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Lars Barstad, CEO Frontline: USD 86.
John Olaisen, ABG: USD 85.
Torbjørn Kjus: Vil variere mellom USD 69-99.
Ståle Kyllingstad, IKM: USD 77.
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2/1 13:41 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Carl Arnet, CEO BW Energy: USD 80.
Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB: USD 80.
Kristian Johansen, CEO TGS: USD 87.
Trond Omdal, Pensum: USD 87.
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2/1 13:41 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Berge Gerdt Larsen: USD 80.
Helge Andre Martinsen, DNB: USD 90.
Magnus Nordby, Norwegian Oil Trading: USD 78.
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4/1 13:52 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Jekker ned kursmål på oljeselskaper
Jefferies nedjusterer kursmålet på Vår Energi og Aker BP, ifølge Bloomberg News torsdag.
Kursmålet på Vår Energi nedjusteres til 40 kroner per aksje, fra 45 kroner, med en gjentatt kjøpsanbefaling.
Kursmålet på Aker BP nedjusteres til 360 kroner per aksje, fra 370 kroner, med en gjentatt kjøpsanbefaling.
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4/1 13:53 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Jekker ned kursmål på Equinor
SEB nedjusterer kursmålet på Equinor til 375 kroner per aksje, fra 410 kroner, og gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling, ifølge en oppdatering fra meglerhuset tirsdag kveld.
«Til tross for lavere råvareestimater, forblir vi kjøpere av Equinor på den nåværende verdsettelsen. Vi fortsetter å se selskapet som overkapitalisert og finner verdsettelsen svært attraktiv til om lag 8 ganger fremtidig inntjening. Likevel fører styrkingen av kronen sammen med negative estimatrevidering
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4/1 14:11 af ProInvestorNEWS |
EQUINOR: Arctic kutter til NOK 380 (420), gjentar kjøp.
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5/1 14:26 af ProInvestorNEWS |
VÅR ENERGI: SEB kutter kursmålet til NOK 38 (42), gjentar kjøp
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5/1 14:26 af ProInvestorNEWS |
AKER BP: RBC kutter kursmålet til NOK 340 (350), gjentar sector perform.
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6/1 00:09 af HVN |
Ved ikke hvor meget I følger med i olie og gas fund ud for Namibia, men hvis det har Jeres interesse for evt. mindre investeringer, så bør I kigge på et lille selskab i Canada ved navn Sintana Energy, da de faktisk har 4,9% ejerskab i flere af felterne dernede, hvor både SHELL og Total har gjort meget store fund lige i nærheden.
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6/1 00:09 af HVN |
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6/1 00:42 af HVN |
En anden lille oliemyg, som jeg har et meget godt øje til i Canada er Arrow Exploration med kode #AXL, som I også kan søge efter på X (Tidligere Twitter). De har ingen gæld, har cirka $18 mio i kassen, tjener net mellem $2 og $3 mio hver måned net, 140 Million 2P NET reserves at Carizales Norte and that they are going to almost double those reserves going west of the primary fault, 15 wells drilling program this year in here 3 horizontal wells. Expect around 100% increased production by year end
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6/1 00:45 af HVN |
Arrow Exploration er noteret både i London på AIM med en markedsværdi på cirka 52M GBP og i Canada på TSXV med en markedsværdi på cirka 89M CAD. Hr det seneste interview fra i dag her
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6/1 00:47 af HVN |
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6/1 00:51 af HVN |
And as the last information for now on Arrow Exploration the Brent Oil Price just need to be above USD 20 per barrel and they get netbacks to be in the money!!!
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6/1 00:53 af HVN |
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6/1 06:44 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Cheniere Energy (LNG) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why (link)
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6/1 06:46 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Kursrykk Southwestern og Chesapeake steg i verdi fredag
etter at Wall Street Journal skrev at de to energiselskapene nærmer seg en sammenslåing. Opplysningene i saken er basert på anonyme kilder, og ingenting er bekreftet. Aksjene steg henholdsvis 7,2 og 3 prosent. Southwestern og Chesapeake har en markedsverdi over henholdsvis 7 og 10 milliarder dollar. Beløpene tilsvarer rundt 70 og 100 milliarder kroner.
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6/1 06:47 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Begge aksjene steg i oktober etter at Reuters skrev basert på anonyme kilder at Chesapeake hadde kontaktet Southwestern om en potensiell avtale. En sammenslåing vil eventuelt følge flere nylige giganttransaksjoner i amerikansk energisektor. I fjor kjøpte Exxon Mobil Pioneer for 60 milliarder dollar og Chevron slukte Hess for 53 milliarder dollar. Kilde E24
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7/1 16:11 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Ser doblingsscenario for oljen
Selv om spenningen i Midtøsten stiger gir det ikke store utslag i oljeprisen. Goldman Sachs ser imidlertid ett scenario som kan sette fart på prisen.
(link)
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7/1 16:12 af ProInvestorNEWS |
Kutter oljeprisen
Det statlige oljeselskapet Saudi Aramco gjennomfører priskutt på levering av olje for februar. (link)
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