Shipping

	3/5 07:42 af mollegade	Fra i dag:
	3/5 07:42 af mollegade	(link)
	3/5 07:44 af mollegade	Det er meget tidligt at spå prisstigning på olien allerede nu. GS var ude og sige, at de nu ser den i kurs 25 (vist nok ved årets udgang). Deres bud er åbenlyst bedre end mit, men selv GS indrømmer, at det bliver en bumpy road, hvilket dagens tweet fra Calvin F. ligeså illustrerer.
	3/5 07:45 af Svinnius	Goldman Sachs V-skema har jo været en joke fra start
	3/5 07:48 af Svinnius	Der var en af de store olieproducenter der sagde at selvom de lukkede gamle brønde ned, så ville de nye fra sidste år opveje produktionstabet
	3/5 08:25 af mollegade	Okay, jeg har ikke fulgt GSs predictions på olie, så jeg kender ikke meget til deres hit rate etc.
	3/5 08:40 af Svinnius	har heller ikke fulgt dem, men her det skema jeg snakker om (link)
	3/5 09:16 af mollegade	Ja okay, den havde jeg ikke set før.
	4/5 00:28 af mollegade	Rystad Energy er bearish på olieprisen:
	4/5 00:28 af mollegade	(link)
	4/5 00:44 af Standstill	tanker supply is expected to increase, with over 300 new vessels over 25,000 dwt scheduled for delivery between now and December 2021. The combination of weak demand and rising supply could apply a considerable downward pressure on industry earnings, but the key sensitivity to this gloomy outlook is the speed and robustness of the oil demand recovery in months ahead”,
	4/5 00:51 af Standstill	@mollegade tak for link. Måske får jeg en chance for at shorte olie igen :-) Den er starte 6 % ned kl 00 da handel åbnede
	4/5 01:21 af mollegade	@Standstill Hvor læser du det med stigning i tanker supply? jeg mener at vide, at supply netop i disse år er rekord-lavt ift de seneste ti år. (Det er hele grundtesen bag mange netop fra 2020 og frem så en super-cyklus i tank med stor efterspørgsel og lavt udbud - naturligvis før Cororna).
	4/5 01:21 af mollegade	nb. dejligt med olien, trods alt :)
	4/5 04:13 af kurtasle	CONTANGO (link)
	4/5 04:16 af kurtasle	@svinnius, no doubt the TP is way too low. But I'm not sure if that's based on "uncertainty" that rates won't stay up as demand will start to increase. But 8% of oil consumption is jet fuel... So that's 8mbpd... flights here int he US are not in the air at the moment, let's say only 25% of normal consumption = 6mbpd.. OPEC+ cut 10mbpd..
	4/5 04:16 af kurtasle	then you have Cruise industry at a standstil
	4/5 04:17 af kurtasle	you have general public transportation, transport in general and factories not spinning.. I'd say rates will be between $80k-$120k/day for Q2/3.
	4/5 04:17 af kurtasle	VLCC
	4/5 04:21 af mollegade	...and the OPEC+ cut decreases to 8mbpd from july or something, right?
	4/5 04:24 af mollegade	@kurtasle Any idea how much the spread needs to be - regarding your link - before the Contango isnt a thing? I mean, right now, the spread from the active contract to the next is like 15%-ish - and then its like 10% each step. Whats consensus here, before its not 'worth it'?
	4/5 07:37 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør	Joakim Hannisdahl @JHannisdahl #Shipping #Weekly: Crude #oil #tanker earnings collapsed this week, as we expected. CotW on floating storage. #LNG & #LPG facing very weak markets. #DryBulk is dormant but w an expected bright future ahead. Seldom seen such contrasts... Free report below (link)
	4/5 07:38 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør	Det er helt skævt at tale om "kollaps".
	4/5 07:41 af mollegade	Enig, Helge, men der er gået magtkamp i den på Twitter. Hannisdahl føler nok et behov for at hævde sig efter den megen 'skæld ud' fra alle de andre. Så nu gør han et stort nummer ud af det, og siger: "Se, hvad sagde jeg!"

	4/5 07:41 af mollegade	De betagter ham jo nærmest som en 'kætter', pga at han er gået fra bull til bearish.
	4/5 08:56 af mollegade	Mon ikke det bliver grimt i dag for tank? De norsk e skylder lidt fra i fredags, desværre...
	4/5 09:26 af Henrikhot	Mon ikke pilen begynder at pege nordpå igen, når regnskaberne fra tankerbrancen, begynder at tikke ind fra imorgen. En serie af gode regnskaber fra sektoren, må efter min mening give et boost.selv med det niveau som raterne ligger på nu, vil det give et enormt overskud for branchen. Jeg syntes ikke at casen har ændret sig synderligt.
	4/5 09:30 af mollegade	Helt enig. Casen er intakt.
	4/5 10:56 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør	(link)
	4/5 18:33 af Standstill	Fald i spot rater i dag : (link)
	4/5 21:26 af Standstill	Rater falder og mine Teekay Tankers Ltd og Diamond S Shipping Inc stiger med 12% !
	4/5 22:31 af mollegade	Ja, og olien stiger ret voldsomt. Det er ikke en smuk cocktail pt. J eg hepper på regnskaberne nu :)
	5/5 00:29 af kurtasle	@mollegade between front and back end you want to see $10 or higher spread. Not in %. Simply calculation 2mb on a VLCC 6 month storage at $100k/day to the VLCC owner is $18 mil. a $10 spread front to back end of those 6 month is $20mil. you pay $18m to owner and you bank $2mil
	5/5 00:32 af kurtasle	big % movement today is in some channels credited to this post on reddit (link)
	5/5 00:34 af kurtasle	1.2 m users, that's been known to have moved the market before on certain stocks. Diamond shipping has a mcap of just $500mil
	5/5 00:37 af kurtasle	ER this week Tanker Stocks Reporting Earnings $ASC Tuesday 5/5 $DHT Tuesday 5/5 $STNG Wednesday 5/6 $EURN Thursday 5/7 $INSW Thursday 5/7 $DSSI Friday 5/8
	5/5 03:38 af mollegade	@kurtasle Makes sense, tha nks.
	5/5 11:10 af StockBull	Nyt Euronav target fra Jefferies 15USD: (link)
	5/5 11:11 af StockBull	Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans raised the price target on Euronav (NYSE: EURN) to $15.00 (from $13.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
	5/5 14:03 af Henrikhot	Ardmore Shipping Corporation Announces Financial Results For The Three Months Ended March 31, 2020.file:///Users/henriknielsen/Downloads/2020-05-05-Ardmore-Shipping-Corporation-Announces-Financial-Results-For-The-Three-Months-Ended-March-31-2020.pdf
	5/5 14:03 af Henrikhot	file:///Users/henriknielsen/Downloads/2020-05-05-Ardmore-Shipping-Corporation-Announces-Financial-Results-For-The-Three-Months-Ended-March-31-2020.pdf
	5/5 14:04 af Henrikhot	prøver igen med link
	5/5 14:04 af Henrikhot	(link)
	5/5 14:08 af Henrikhot	Much attention has been on the crude tanker market, in particular on the impact of higher cargo volumes, floating storage, and the resulting extraordinarily high rates achieved. More recently those conditions have arrived for the product tanker market and we believe they may be more persistent, potentially for many months, as the physical oil market continues its extreme gyrations around demand and supply.
	5/5 14:10 af Henrikhot	In particular, if and when the oil market reaches max capacity for shore oil storage, we may enter a new and potentially more volatile phase of the tanker market, and if and when oil demand rebounds with an economic recovery sometime in the third quarter as the IEA are forecasting, we would expect more demand-driven volatility, potentially carrying into the winter.
	5/5 14:11 af Henrikhot	To fully explain the impact of these events, we have to describe our recent chartering activity: last week we fixed a 55-day voyage at $72,000 per day, equivalent to a VLCC at $200,000+ per day. Our MR voyages in progress, representing roughly the last three weeks' fixtures, now stands at $28,200 per day; lower than brokerage reports or the above fixture, but higher than anything we achieved before. If rates for our fleet averaged $28,200 per day for a full year, taking 1Q20 as a base, we estima
	5/5 14:12 af Henrikhot	we estimate that our annual earnings would be $110 million or $3.30 per share; we are not forecasting any future results, but rather just contextualizing what is happening.
	5/5 14:42 af TheNote	Fine tal fra Ardmore. Aktien stiger pænt, lige nu ca. 7 %, (link)
	5/5 14:48 af Henrikhot	regnskabet er før børsåbning. stigningen er fra igår. men det bliver spænende, hvad investorerne siger.
	5/5 14:50 af TheNote	Omg .. du har ret. Pinligt … øv, blev lige så glad !