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Shipping
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9/12 13:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
I LNG-sektoren er det også god stemning i markedet om dagen, men her er Karlsen mer skeptisk til fortsettelsen. LNG står for flytende naturgass.
– Markedet skal ned fordi det kommer veldig mye nye skip neste år. Og det kommer heller ikke like mye produkt. Jeg tror derfor det blir mer utfordrende når vintersesongen avtar, med et mye tøffere marked, sier Karlsen.
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9/12 13:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
enklere for amerikanske produsenter. Samtidig har etterspørselen etter LPG vært sterk, så det ser spennende ut også inn i neste år.
Av LPG-aksjene anbefaler Karlsen å gå inn i 2021 med BW LPG og Avance Gas".
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9/12 13:00 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
– LPG er nok den største positive overraskelsen og det ser spennende ut. Markedet er veldig, veldig sterkt og mye bedre enn hva jeg trodde det ville være, sier Karlsen.
Han mener utviklingen fremover avhenger av LPG-produksjonen i USA, som han synes «virker å holde seg overraskende bra».
– Når oljeprisen kollapset ble det ganske raskt kutt i amerikansk oljeproduksjon, men LPG-produksjonen har vist seg å være standhaftig. Det har blitt bygget en god infrastruktur rundt eksporten og da blir det
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9/12 12:59 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Det er feststemning i gassfrakt for øyeblikket, spesielt innenfor LPG, som er frakt av flytende petroleumsgass. Her er dagsratene, altså inntjeningen til skipene på frakten per dag, nå på rundt sitt høyeste nivå på fem år.
I sommer var det så vidt penger å hente hjem for rederiene.
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9/12 12:59 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
"Karlsen i Danske Bank Markets har overfor E24 delt sine tanker om veien videre for shippingsektorene gassfrakt, tank og tørrlast.
Han har overordnet tro på shipping fremover, men som i de fleste bransjer: Det er ingen tvil om at coronautviklingen blir avgjørende. ...
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9/12 12:30 af ungeee |
Mere (link)
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8/12 23:32 af ungeee |
LPG(link)
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7/12 23:34 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
1 t
#Shipping #Weekly
#DryBulk seasonal headwinds
#Oil #Tanker gains from low levels
#LNG still going strong
#VLGC how high can we fly?
#CotW on the low scrapping during 2020
Full free report here: (link)
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7/12 20:18 af ungeee |
19:13 sejt :)
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7/12 20:13 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
12 min
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +5% to $99/t (TCE $91k/d)
#VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG(link)
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6/12 22:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
LPG aktire på billigsalg: (link)
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4/12 10:10 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Mærsk: Rater fortsætter op til højeste niveauer i mange år
(link)
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4/12 09:04 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Ballast speed has averaged 2% higher than laden speed in November, reflecting the strong earnings environment, Cleaves said.
"It is challenging to say how long these fleet inefficiencies will last, with the Panama Canal delays said to be caused by high traffic, seasonal fog and Covid-19 related issues," the analysts added.
"We expect that the delays will abate in the first quarter of 2021.
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4/12 09:04 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
This is further adding to the fleet inefficiencies, tying up an estimated 7% of the global VLGC fleet’s capacity," the Cleaves analysts said.
Ballast speed picking up
One offsetting factor is an increase in VLGC ballast speed as owners hurry to the next deal.
Speed averaged 15.1 knots in November, versus 14.3kn in June, the investment bank calculated.
This rise represents a 2.5% increase in fleet capacity.
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4/12 09:03 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Satellite data shows eight VLGCs were awaiting Panama Canal transit at the start of this week, with an average waiting time of 2.8 days, according to Cleaves.
This is down from the 3.8 days average in October, but up from the 1.7 days average between May and August.
"With some vessels now using up to nine days to transit the canal (normally around two days), many opt for the 12-days-longer voyage around the Cape of Good Hope.
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4/12 09:03 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Exports stay solid
"The very strong VLGC spot market reflects solid export volumes, but also significant fleet inefficiencies. Cargoes ex-US are now working towards mid-January laycans due to the lack of available prompt vessels, impacted by turnaround delays at discharge ports and transit delays at the Panama Canal," analysts Joakim Hannisdahl and Peter Michael Christensen said.
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4/12 09:02 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Compatriot investment bank Cleaves Securities said a lack of available tonnage and strong fixing activity in the west saw earnings rally to $81,000 per day on 27 November, a 50% jump on the prior week and 58% on the prior month.
"Canal delays are still supportive, but relets could emerge with the US/Asia LPG arbitrage now close to spot rates," the company added.
Cleaves puts vessel earnings 3.5 times above cash break-even levels.
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4/12 09:02 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Charterers assess their options
"Following the hectic last week, the market has levelled off as charterers have taken a step back to assess options," the analysts said.
"However, there are virtually no available vessels for the relevant fixing window which has left transpacific runs at a premium to western rates."
Western numbers are estimated at $86,000 per day.
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4/12 09:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
The market remains extremely tight in both basins as there is simply not enough tonnage to cater for demand," they said.
There are still a few vessels available for December dates in the Middle East Gulf, but Fearnley expects attention to quickly turn towards January, with no tonnage overhang.
Rates have continued to tick upwards, with the latest Baltic Exchange assessment coming in at $91.36 per tonne on Wednesday, or $82,300 per day.
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4/12 09:01 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Fra TW:
'Virtually no' VLGCs available as rates stay strong
Analysts continue to talk up prospects for large gas carriers as free tonnage dries up
Prospects remain bright for VLGCs into 2021 as free tonnage dries up.
Norwegian investment bank Fearnley Securities said the market has continued on a "strong note" since hitting five-year highs last week.
Analysts Espen Landmark Fjermestad, Peder Nicolai Jarlsby and Ulrik Mannhart see limited headwinds in the near-term.
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4/12 08:18 af ungeee |
Stigende LPG-futurerater(link)
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3/12 19:02 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
oakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
22 min
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +2% to $94/t (TCE $85k/d)
#VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG(link)
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3/12 16:05 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
oakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
1 t
#DryBulk #Shipping research report early-bird special:
Vale published negative guidance revisions for 2021 yesterday (-16%). Although we did not believe Vale's old forecast, it still removes 5% of our Brazil #ironore forecast for 2021
$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SALT $SBLK(link)
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2/12 18:29 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Shipping/Alphaliner: Rederiers driftsmargin stiger til årtihøjt niveau
(link)
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2/12 10:56 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Her er tråden: (link)
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2/12 10:56 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
nvestoren
@Investoren8
·
2 t
Svarer
@JHannisdahl
Not true. Several ships have been fixed at these levels. Your view and communication is very biased towards your own recommendations. As an analyst you should be neutral, otherwise ut just looks stupid and not serious. In LPG you have failed, why noy just admit it.
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2/12 08:03 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
6 t
Although #VLGC FFAs fell back today, w ie Dec -7% to $84/t (TCE $74k/d), rates could rally further as there are ~0 ships available.
Remember that astounding rates due to ~0 ships available means ~0 ships lock in these earnings...
#LPG #shipping #VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG
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1/12 21:06 af ungeee |
19:52 Ratefutures er faldende
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1/12 20:52 af Mcjean |
Vilde rater i et lavmarked, har ingen Avance, må hellere købe lidt i morgen, 1q 2021 bliver da om noget vildt, men i Norge vil de hellere købe fantasiaktier bare der står grøn i profilen og så er de helt ligeglade med shipping,
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1/12 19:30 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
50 min
Most significant #oil #tanker #shipping spot movements:
#VLCC +7% to $9k/d
#Suezmax -33% to $2k/d
#LR2 -10% to $9k/d
#MR -36% to $2k/d
#OOTT $ADSC $DHT $EURN $FRO $HAFNIA $HUNT $INSW $NAT $OET $TNK
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1/12 19:29 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
oakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
49 min
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +0% to $91/t (TCE $82k/d)
#VLGC $AVANCE $AGAS $BWLPG $LPG
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1/12 08:18 af ungeee |
LPG :-)
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1/12 08:13 af ungeee |
LGP-futures er historisk meget høje pt.(link)
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1/12 08:10 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
LPG-futures er stigende: (link)
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1/12 08:02 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
6 t
Some #VLGC talk of excessive docking schedule in 2021E, but it's actually on track to a very average 2.68% of the fleet's carrying capacity vs a generic 2.74% and 2.80% in 2020E (20 offhire days on intermediate, 30 on special survey)
#LPG #shipping #VLGC $AGAS $AVANCE $BWLPG $LPG(link)
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30/11 22:30 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Det er jeg da. Har haft aktien lige så længe som Lau Svendsen. Altså fra noteringen. :-)
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30/11 22:16 af ungeee |
28/11 19:43 Du skal nok blive glad for ZEAL :-)
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30/11 22:10 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
oakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
39 min
Baltic Dry Index Falls 0.24% to 1,227
Capesize -0.72% to $12,621
Panamax -0.17% to $11,507
Supramax 58k tons +0.38% to $11,241
Handysize +0.82% to $9,799
#DryBulk #Shipping
$DSX $EGLE $GBLK $GNK $GOGL $SALT $SBLK
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30/11 22:09 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
35 min
Most significant #oil #tanker #shipping spot movements:
#VLCC +9% to $9k/d
#LR2 -11% to $10k/d
#OOTT $ADSC $DHT $EURN $FRO $HAFNIA $HUNT $INSW $NAT $OET $TNK
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30/11 22:09 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
36 min
Baltic #LPG #shipping index +0% to $91/t (TCE $82k/d)
#VLGC $AVANCE $BWLPG $LPG
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30/11 20:10 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
euters
@Reuters
·
14 min
Main economic boost from COVID vaccines will come later, BoE's Tenreyro says (link)
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30/11 19:58 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Joakim Hannisdahl
@JHannisdahl
·
2 t
#Shipping #Weekly
#DryBulk posting small gains
#Oil #Tanker owners take on a bullish stance
#LNG flat at high levels
#VLGC spot rates exploded, but how long will it last?
#CotW on the current VLGC fleet inefficiencies
Full free report here: (link)
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30/11 10:45 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Det er bedre at du løbende følger futures end at spørge mig. :-) (link)
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30/11 10:36 af JuliusFraSmithOvrfor |
@Helge - Du skriver at raterne vil falde efter April/Maj. Har du et bud på hvilket niveau de vil falde til?
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30/11 08:15 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
LPG: Raterne stiger yderligere: (link)
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28/11 20:43 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
Jeg har hvad jeg skal have i Novo og Genmab. Zealand har jeg løbende købt en smule mere af de seneste måneder.
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28/11 20:42 af Helge Larsen/PI-redaktør |
46.000 på så langt sigt er usædvanligt.
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28/11 19:15 af ungeee |
Ps har både LPG og bio selv
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28/11 19:10 af ungeee |
Mener egentlig at biotek er værd at gå i igen fx gen, novo, Zealand nu
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28/11 19:06 af ungeee |
18.02 46000?
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